Steve Kornacki on Battle for the Senate: There’s a State That Dems Are Trying to Flip, That Trump Didn’t Win in 2024, That’s Maine
RUSH EXCERPT:
KORNACKI: "Take a look. You see North Carolina, by the way, both parties thinking that my be likely to flip. There is tonight one state in the battleground that Democrats are trying to flip that Trump didn’t win in ’24, Maine. Kamala Harris won by seven. If the Democrats were to get North Carolina, if they were to get Maine, they still need at least two more. Ultimately they will be having to look at a state like Alaska, Iowa, Texas and win at least two states like that, double-digit Trump states. The flip side of that is if you look at Trump’s approval rating in those states, there is some softness there. These are again double-digit Trump states. 44% approval rating in Iowa, 42% in Ohio there. So there is some fortification for Republicans, but there is softness for Trump. It’s an interesting dynamic. Some the key demographics that I think decide this, Texas, we heard the Hispanic vote, Trump surged with the Hispanic vote in 2024. Go to deep south Texas here, cameron county, Brownsville, Texas, look at this. In 2016 Trump lost this county by 33 points to Hillary Clinton, by 2024 a 40 point reversal, won by six. Keep an eye on this one on election night. It’s a Hispanic county. In Ohio here, blue color voters here, talk about Youngstown, Ohio, again this was for a long time a very democratic county. Barack Obama won by nearly 30 point. Look what Donald Trump did in 2024. Almost double digits. If the democratic is going to win, he needs to win back for Democrats. And then look here in Michigan. This is where Republicans think they may be playing offense here trying to defeat abdul el sayed the democratic nominee. Where to look I think is oakland county, one the giants in the state, the big suburban county north of Detroit. You see here. And like lot of the these counties nationally, it’s moved towards the Democrats in the last decade or two. But it’s an 11 point Harris win in 2024. I think when the results come in on election night, if el sayed’s underperforming which is what Republicans are saying, if this margin is in single digits in oakland, trouble for Democrats. If the marginen is well into double digits, I say it’s looking good."
