Steve Rattner on His Charts: Trump Could Lose 60-70 Seats in the House in This Fall

SCARBOROUGH From Barack Obama ░░░░░░░░ Yes we can to ░░░░░░░░ they will I mean ░░░░░░░░ fact Steve Rattner that ░░░░░░░░ Democrats are behind on ░░░░░░░░ economy the Democrats are ░░░░░░░░ on taxes the Democrats ░░░░░░░░ behind on the deficit ░░░░░░░░ Democrats are behind I ░░░░░░░░ on any of these ░░░░░░░░ shows just how inept ░░░░░░░░ party s message is ░░░░░░░░ now I m not ░░░░░░░░ they re not going ░░░░░░░░ win big in the ░░░░░░░░ they probably are because ░░░░░░░░ intensity among their base ░░░░░░░░ higher than ever before ░░░░░░░░ really does mirror what ░░░░░░░░ in 2010 for the ░░░░░░░░ But still they re ░░░░░░░░ looking great in a ░░░░░░░░ of numbers But still ░░░░░░░░ tax bill unbelievably unpopular ░░░░░░░░ Unbelievably unpopular so they ░░░░░░░░ be able to run ░░░░░░░░ that tax bill I ░░░░░░░░ t disagree with you ░░░░░░░░ the lack of a ░░░░░░░░ message at the moment ░░░░░░░░ if you take a ░░░░░░░░ at another important factor ░░░░░░░░ s on their side ░░░░░░░░ is the President s ░░░░░░░░ rating you can get ░░░░░░░░ idea of what could ░░░░░░░░ in this election So ░░░░░░░░ this chart shows is ░░░░░░░░ all those little red ░░░░░░░░ are the last 50 ░░░░░░░░ roughly of midterm elections ░░░░░░░░ against the President s ░░░░░░░░ rating at the time ░░░░░░░░ for example if you ░░░░░░░░ someone who had a ░░░░░░░░ percent approval rating and ░░░░░░░░ draw a line BRZEZINSKI ░░░░░░░░ my goodness SCARBOROUGH Overhead ░░░░░░░░ Behind the scenes of ░░░░░░░░ RATTNER You guys Do ░░░░░░░░ want to come over ░░░░░░░░ and do this BRZEZINSKI ░░░░░░░░ I m terrible on ░░░░░░░░ things Go ahead Steve ░░░░░░░░ m listening RATTNER Are ░░░░░░░░ done SCARBOROUGH We re ░░░░░░░░ Yes I m sorry ░░░░░░░░ re having fun RATTNER ░░░░░░░░ you have a president ░░░░░░░░ say a 50 percent ░░░░░░░░ rating they could expect ░░░░░░░░ lose something like 30 ░░░░░░░░ based on historic record ░░░░░░░░ s about 70 percent ░░░░░░░░ between these results Donald ░░░░░░░░ is down here at ░░░░░░░░ percent so you could ░░░░░░░░ him in the minus ░░░░░░░░ to minus 70 loss ░░░░░░░░ If you look at ░░░░░░░░ of the other examples ░░░░░░░░ red dot right here ░░░░░░░░ this a little clearer ░░░░░░░░ red dot right here ░░░░░░░░ 2010 when we all ░░░░░░░░ what happened the rise ░░░░░░░░ the Tea Party Barack ░░░░░░░░ was only at 45 ░░░░░░░░ there he wasn t ░░░░░░░░ at 40 and he ░░░░░░░░ over 60 seats If ░░░░░░░░ look at 1994 which ░░░░░░░░ ve talked about here ░░░░░░░░ this show before where ░░░░░░░░ economy was reasonably good ░░░░░░░░ the president had gone ░░░░░░░░ know had raised taxes ░░░░░░░░ and had had some ░░░░░░░░ health care plan and ░░░░░░░░ this other stuff he ░░░░░░░░ at 45 percent and ░░░░░░░░ lost over 50 seats ░░░░░░░░ the historic record correlation ░░░░░░░░ about 70 percent much ░░░░░░░░ than on unemployment The ░░░░░░░░ thing there are two ░░░░░░░░ factors to keep in ░░░░░░░░ One is the way ░░░░░░░░ the the way that ░░░░░░░░ electorate in effect has ░░░░░░░░ Republican So what this ░░░░░░░░ does is goes back ░░░░░░░░ 1980 and basically says ░░░░░░░░ is the embedded margin ░░░░░░░░ advantage relative to a ░░░░░░░░ race on the Senate ░░░░░░░░ and on the House ░░░░░░░░ As you can see ░░░░░░░░ those 35 years it ░░░░░░░░ grown from roughly zero ░░░░░░░░ roughly 5 or 6 ░░░░░░░░ much as 6 percent ░░░░░░░░ it s done it ░░░░░░░░ different reasons on the ░░░░░░░░ side than on the ░░░░░░░░ side On the House ░░░░░░░░ it s basically gerrymandering ░░░░░░░░ we know a lot ░░░░░░░░ On the Senate side ░░░░░░░░ s interesting two senators ░░░░░░░░ state small states have ░░░░░░░░ advantage More and more ░░░░░░░░ in places like California ░░░░░░░░ still only have two ░░░░░░░░ so you get an ░░░░░░░░ advantage relative to the ░░░░░░░░ vote in favor of ░░░░░░░░ Republicans.”