RUSH TRANSCRIPT Because the ░░░░░░░░ data is not really ░░░░░░░░ any of this yet ░░░░░░░░ Thank you for joining ░░░░░░░░ Now we turn to ░░░░░░░░ DiMartino Booth see eo ░░░░░░░░ chief strategist from her ░░░░░░░░ in New York the ░░░░░░░░ is segmenting it will ░░░░░░░░ on the sidelines until ░░░░░░░░ notice What do you ░░░░░░░░ is the first impetus ░░░░░░░░ will move them off ░░░░░░░░ bench Danielle To the ░░░░░░░░ of the minutes being ░░░░░░░░ little more dovish than ░░░░░░░░ had expected as a ░░░░░░░░ fed insider there for ░░░░░░░░ 10 years it is ░░░░░░░░ often you read the ░░░░░░░░ recession in minutes We ░░░░░░░░ to look back to ░░░░░░░░ feds December 16 two ░░░░░░░░ eight meeting transcripts in ░░░░░░░░ Janet Yellen said we ░░░░░░░░ also consider using the ░░░░░░░░ minutes to provide quantitative ░░░░░░░░ to better explain our ░░░░░░░░ In other words what ░░░░░░░░ said in 2008 she ░░░░░░░░ in 2008 was they ░░░░░░░░ use the minutes like ░░░░░░░░ tool in the toolbox ░░░░░░░░ lot of my colleagues ░░░░░░░░ surprised that recession is ░░░░░░░░ seen as a coin ░░░░░░░░ versus base case I ░░░░░░░░ date use these minutes ░░░░░░░░ decisively I think that ░░░░░░░░ used the minutes very ░░░░░░░░ today Joe You may ░░░░░░░░ also seen in the ░░░░░░░░ chat room today references ░░░░░░░░ the taco trade If ░░░░░░░░ is the case that ░░░░░░░░ Trump always chickens out ░░░░░░░░ market is starting to ░░░░░░░░ its head around this ░░░░░░░░ about the Fed If ░░░░░░░░ hear a threat about ░░░░░░░░ the Fed should know ░░░░░░░░ at this point based ░░░░░░░░ what we are all ░░░░░░░░ shouldn t it Danielle ░░░░░░░░ think so You obviously ░░░░░░░░ t take any threat ░░░░░░░░ for face value Within ░░░░░░░░ hours with a shift ░░░░░░░░ the wind it can ░░░░░░░░ I think fed policymakers ░░░░░░░░ be diligent in adapting ░░░░░░░░ this highly uncertain environment ░░░░░░░░ that will actually make ░░░░░░░░ more data dependent than ░░░░░░░░ would be otherwise I ░░░░░░░░ that is why there ░░░░░░░░ so much rich detail ░░░░░░░░ today s fed meeting ░░░░░░░░ Kailey If they are ░░░░░░░░ to be more data ░░░░░░░░ than they otherwise would ░░░░░░░░ what do you expect ░░░░░░░░ see reflected in the ░░░░░░░░ danielle Obviously everybody has ░░░░░░░░ close attention to fluctuations ░░░░░░░░ soft data Hard data ░░░░░░░░ something else When does ░░░░░░░░ show up there Danielle ░░░░░░░░ is interesting you ask ░░░░░░░░ question May 7 the ░░░░░░░░ of labor statistics released ░░░░░░░░ hardest data that exists ░░░░░░░░ of the business employment ░░░░░░░░ revisions to payrolls back ░░░░░░░░ the second quarter of ░░░░░░░░ which showed in six ░░░░░░░░ in 2024 there were ░░░░░░░░ job losses I can ░░░░░░░░ fed staff is making ░░░░░░░░ presentations to Chair Powell ░░░░░░░░ others in leadership positions ░░░░░░░░ the fact it looks ░░░░░░░░ job losses began in ░░░░░░░░ in hard data in ░░░░░░░░ I think that will ░░░░░░░░ that to them that ░░░░░░░░ more sensitive going forward ░░░░░░░░ the Fed today forecasting ░░░░░░░░ labor market will weaken ░░░░░░░░ Something else we have ░░░░░░░░ out of the minutes ░░░░░░░░ unemployment rate rising above ░░░░░░░░ natural right this year ░░░░░░░░ elevated through 2027 If ░░░░░░░░ tariffs never take effect ░░░░░░░░ we stay in the ░░░░░░░░ or get the trade ░░░░░░░░ does that no longer ░░░░░░░░ Danielle It s really ░░░░░░░░ to say There has ░░░░░░░░ so much damage done ░░░░░░░░ Because companies American firms ░░░░░░░░ America they have been ░░░░░░░░ a long time Whether ░░░░░░░░ are talking about small ░░░░░░░░ surveys or softer surveys ░░░░░░░░ confidence it really is ░░░░░░░░ they are all taking ░░░░░░░░ hit across the board ░░░░░░░░ it is very difficult ░░░░░░░░ make any types of ░░░░░░░░ term decisions capital expenditure ░░░░░░░░ in this kind of ░░░░░░░░ that is constantly in ░░░░░░░░ I see the risks ░░░░░░░░ being as far out ░░░░░░░░ Federal Reserve officials do ░░░░░░░░ Kailey We consider things ░░░░░░░░ in duration I want ░░░░░░░░ ask you about the ░░░░░░░░ market On the early ░░░░░░░░ of barlett balance of ░░░░░░░░ today we spoke with ░░░░░░░░ congressman Byron Donalds a ░░░░░░░░ of the house financial ░░░░░░░░ committee and this is ░░░░░░░░ he said he is ░░░░░░░░ in the bond market ░░░░░░░░ look at the bond ░░░░░░░░ and one thing is ░░░░░░░░ clear The bond market ░░░░░░░░ looking at the United ░░░░░░░░ saying you had better ░░░░░░░░ your fiscal house in ░░░░░░░░ or we will charge ░░░░░░░░ more to borrow money ░░░░░░░░ nation can drive under ░░░░░░░░ kind of scenario We ░░░░░░░░ to be serious on ░░░░░░░░ Hill Kailey When you ░░░░░░░░ at the bond market ░░░░░░░░ do you see it ░░░░░░░░ being fiscal concerns reflected ░░░░░░░░ I do We just ░░░░░░░░ fannie mae and corelogic ░░░░░░░░ readings on shelter Negative ░░░░░░░░ the first time since ░░░░░░░░ of 2022 It s ░░░░░░░░ inflation now that is ░░░░░░░░ the bond market I ░░░░░░░░ it is a lack ░░░░░░░░ fiscal discipline and congressional ░░░░░░░░ Not being able to ░░░░░░░░ a more disciplined and ░░░░░░░░ more fiscally conservative approach ░░░░░░░░ despite the fact that ░░░░░░░░ is theoretically the GOP ░░░░░░░░ Based on what Byron ░░░░░░░░ said that is quite ░░░░░░░░ doge taco for the ░░░░░░░░ to eat What are ░░░░░░░░ odds of recession based ░░░░░░░░ what you are hearing ░░░░░░░░ the White House Danielle ░░░░░░░░ truly think the recession ░░░░░░░░ are very high right ░░░░░░░░ We have had five ░░░░░░░░ to back months of ░░░░░░░░ sector job announcements being ░░░░░░░░ of 100 000 Bloomberg ░░░░░░░░ Anna wong anticipates unemployment ░░░░░░░░ be rising By the ░░░░░░░░ next Friday rolls around ░░░░░░░░ we get the next ░░░░░░░░ report I think 65 ░░░░░░░░ Americans are saying they ░░░░░░░░ the unemployment rate will ░░░░░░░░ We should pay heed ░░░░░░░░ what people on the ░░░░░░░░ working men and women ░░░░░░░░ the U S are ░░░░░░░░ about the U S ░░░░░░░░ That is that it ░░░░░░░░ in recession Joe Great ░░░░░░░░ have you with us ░░░░░░░░ Martin note booth CEO