RUSH TRANSCRIPT We are ░░░░░░░░ by our next guest ░░░░░░░░ is Clark guinan who ░░░░░░░░ chief market strategist at ░░░░░░░░ investments joins us with ░░░░░░░░ thoughts on the markets ░░░░░░░░ lovely to have you ░░░░░░░░ the show Thank you ░░░░░░░░ much for your time ░░░░░░░░ do you make of ░░░░░░░░ steadiness we are seeing ░░░░░░░░ the markets right now ░░░░░░░░ you think the markets ░░░░░░░░ mean believe that this ░░░░░░░░ do you think the ░░░░░░░░ put has been invoked ░░░░░░░░ to speak Not yet ░░░░░░░░ we ve seen sentiment ░░░░░░░░ from triumph to tragedy ░░░░░░░░ the real concern there ░░░░░░░░ how that s going ░░░░░░░░ affect the consumer So ░░░░░░░░ the recent spending data ░░░░░░░░ came out wasn t ░░░░░░░░ clear that we ve ░░░░░░░░ that hit the consumer ░░░░░░░░ So considering consumer spending ░░░░░░░░ up 75 of the ░░░░░░░░ GDP it s a ░░░░░░░░ that we really have ░░░░░░░░ track carefully and will ░░░░░░░░ something that the Fed ░░░░░░░░ watching as they come ░░░░░░░░ their decisions over the ░░░░░░░░ six months And right ░░░░░░░░ the markets have the ░░░░░░░░ with 3 to 4 ░░░░░░░░ cuts baked in whereas ░░░░░░░░ feel that there s ░░░░░░░░ really 1 to 2 ░░░░░░░░ are going to take ░░░░░░░░ and we re going ░░░░░░░░ have to rely on ░░░░░░░░ us consumer and us ░░░░░░░░ to continue strong earnings ░░░░░░░░ order to make that ░░░░░░░░ Right And so how ░░░░░░░░ you approaching your portfolio ░░░░░░░░ at this point in ░░░░░░░░ amid the uncertainty Clarke ░░░░░░░░ considering we re in ░░░░░░░░ land of uncertainty we ░░░░░░░░ t know the what ░░░░░░░░ who the when or ░░░░░░░░ of tariffs We re ░░░░░░░░ not to make any ░░░░░░░░ decisions based solely off ░░░░░░░░ So we re sticking ░░░░░░░░ the basics with asset ░░░░░░░░ risk tolerance and time ░░░░░░░░ That being said because ░░░░░░░░ the volatility over the ░░░░░░░░ few months we will ░░░░░░░░ looking to put dry ░░░░░░░░ to work And that ░░░░░░░░ be in the form ░░░░░░░░ in the form of ░░░░░░░░ s a few different ░░░░░░░░ What we ve seen ░░░░░░░░ so far this year ░░░░░░░░ ve seen the multiples ░░░░░░░░ down on large cap ░░░░░░░░ companies 15 So clearly ░░░░░░░░ had a run up ░░░░░░░░ the past two years ░░░░░░░░ 20 plus growth in ░░░░░░░░ mag seven and other ░░░░░░░░ cap growth companies While ░░░░░░░░ ve seen the large ░░░░░░░░ value companies hold their ░░░░░░░░ steady So we think ░░░░░░░░ seeing this pullback and ░░░░░░░░ continuing at an all ░░░░░░░░ high that this is ░░░░░░░░ good opportunity to put ░░░░░░░░ of that dry powder ░░░░░░░░ unused cash into those ░░░░░░░░ cap growth companies right ░░░░░░░░ re talking about how ░░░░░░░░ re building the case ░░░░░░░░ the Fed might cut ░░░░░░░░ this year I often ░░░░░░░░ about how that situation ░░░░░░░░ play out given that ░░░░░░░░ Fed has committed itself ░░░░░░░░ a pause right now ░░░░░░░░ that s what broadly ░░░░░░░░ guess economists are expecting ░░░░░░░░ markets of course swinging ░░░░░░░░ other way and whether ░░░░░░░░ not it would be ░░░░░░░░ for the lack of ░░░░░░░░ better word by fiscal ░░░░░░░░ of the Trump Administration ░░░░░░░░ has led to economic ░░░░░░░░ weaken And we know ░░░░░░░░ President Trump does want ░░░░░░░░ lower That is something ░░░░░░░░ we could see So ░░░░░░░░ these tariffs being implemented ░░░░░░░░ like I said we ░░░░░░░░ t know the who ░░░░░░░░ when where And so ░░░░░░░░ s the uncertainty So ░░░░░░░░ we do see inflation ░░░░░░░░ back up I think ░░░░░░░░ is going to be ░░░░░░░░ the Trump put or ░░░░░░░░ Fed put And they ░░░░░░░░ going to have to ░░░░░░░░ rates So that is ░░░░░░░░ possibility okay Clocks stay ░░░░░░░░ with us We ll ░░░░░░░░ right back with you ░░░░░░░░ Partsinevelos and we are ░░░░░░░░ with claude grignon who ░░░░░░░░ chief market strategist at ░░░░░░░░ investment Clark what do ░░░░░░░░ make of you know ░░░░░░░░ obviously the chip sector ░░░░░░░░ the buoyancy that we ░░░░░░░░ seen the AI premium ░░░░░░░░ s been ascribed to ░░░░░░░░ chip names starting with ░░░░░░░░ course nvidia being the ░░░░░░░░ boy But really the ░░░░░░░░ strategy given valuations and ░░░░░░░░ focus on roi coming ░░░░░░░░ because of the deep ░░░░░░░░ disruption how are you ░░░░░░░░ at your positions here ░░░░░░░░ since we ve seen ░░░░░░░░ pullback back this year ░░░░░░░░ on the large cap ░░░░░░░░ companies And so that ░░░░░░░░ include companies like nvidia ░░░░░░░░ what we re doing ░░░░░░░░ when we have the ░░░░░░░░ with dry powder we ░░░░░░░░ adding to those positions ░░░░░░░░ with some of the ░░░░░░░░ sea disruption we do ░░░░░░░░ feel that companies like ░░░░░░░░ nvidia are going to ░░░░░░░░ a strong outlook So ░░░░░░░░ doesn t hasn t ░░░░░░░░ affected the way that ░░░░░░░░ re looking at companies ░░░░░░░░ nvidia okay you re ░░░░░░░░ saying this is a ░░░░░░░░ opportunity within the S ░░░░░░░░ 500 Broadly speaking Are ░░░░░░░░ talking about the etf ░░░░░░░░ index Sure I do ░░░░░░░░ the index and or ░░░░░░░░ companies within in the ░░░░░░░░ P so we saw ░░░░░░░░ right now we re ░░░░░░░░ roughly 3 5 and ░░░░░░░░ saw the correction which ░░░░░░░░ one of the fit ░░░░░░░░ five fast corrections in ░░░░░░░░ of those other four ░░░░░░░░ is the returns three ░░░░░░░░ six months and 12 ░░░░░░░░ out were all positive ░░░░░░░░ it does set a ░░░░░░░░ precedence for it Clearly ░░░░░░░░ s no guarantee that ░░░░░░░░ will happen again But ░░░░░░░░ did like to hear ░░░░░░░░ numbers And so you ░░░░░░░░ that there is still ░░░░░░░░ enough for all those ░░░░░░░░ targets on the S ░░░░░░░░ to actually get realized ░░░░░░░░ whether it s you ░░░░░░░░ 6000 plus or 6500 ░░░░░░░░ well on the S ░░░░░░░░ 500 what is your ░░░░░░░░ So we re still ░░░░░░░░ between 6400 to 6600 ░░░░░░░░ s where we have ░░░░░░░░ outlay right now And ░░░░░░░░ have that at the ░░░░░░░░ of the year And ░░░░░░░░ re still sticking with ░░░░░░░░ just based on earnings ░░░░░░░░ to grow earnings have ░░░░░░░░ been hit thus far ░░░░░░░░ we ve seen the ░░░░░░░░ compress which is healthy ░░░░░░░░ what we ve needed ░░░░░░░░ it s really been ░░░░░░░░ small and short correction ░░░░░░░░ as we stand now ░░░░░░░░ over only a few ░░░░░░░░ I also want to ░░░░░░░░ your thoughts in Clark ░░░░░░░░ the Berkshire hathaway investment ░░░░░░░░ the Japanese trading houses ░░░░░░░░ how that stock reached ░░░░░░░░ highs Sitting on a ░░░░░░░░ pile of 300 billion ░░░░░░░░ would be the size ░░░░░░░░ some companies What s ░░░░░░░░ own sense in what ░░░░░░░░ happening with Berkshire hathaway ░░░░░░░░ also um the view ░░░░░░░░ they re taking on ░░░░░░░░ Japanese trading houses Sure ░░░░░░░░ s a great opportunity ░░░░░░░░ them I think uh ░░░░░░░░ you had mentioned earlier ░░░░░░░░ is sort of like ░░░░░░░░ commodity play And that ░░░░░░░░ something that we ve ░░░░░░░░ at as well are ░░░░░░░░ a look at commodities ░░░░░░░░ this year such as ░░░░░░░░ and silver which are ░░░░░░░░ have double digit returns ░░░░░░░░ have really been uncorrelated ░░░░░░░░ everything else in the ░░░░░░░░ besides the international returns ░░░░░░░░ so um it seems ░░░░░░░░ a logical play for ░░░░░░░░ Buffett and we too ░░░░░░░░ been looking at commodities ░░░░░░░░ well Right And if ░░░░░░░░ re saying that you ░░░░░░░░ looking at gold is ░░░░░░░░ spot gold or gold ░░░░░░░░ Is it silver or ░░░░░░░░ miners I it s ░░░░░░░░ the spot Not necessarily ░░░░░░░░ miners We just I ░░░░░░░░ that there s less ░░░░░░░░ with the spot than ░░░░░░░░ is with the miners ░░░░░░░░ Give us your own ░░░░░░░░ in terms of Clark ░░░░░░░░ are you looking at ░░░░░░░░ worries around stagflation because ░░░░░░░░ made an interesting point ░░░░░░░░ how earnings have not ░░░░░░░░ impacted thus far thus ░░░░░░░░ being the operative phrase ░░░░░░░░ But during the course ░░░░░░░░ the next few quarters ░░░░░░░░ you think if business ░░░░░░░░ start to stall then ░░░░░░░░ would have a cascading ░░░░░░░░ on overall earnings because ░░░░░░░░ sentiment would be hit ░░░░░░░░ I think that s ░░░░░░░░ logical outlook If we ░░░░░░░░ see these negative numbers ░░░░░░░░ we do see companies ░░░░░░░░ to get hit tariffs ░░░░░░░░ if they do increase ░░░░░░░░ then we will be ░░░░░░░░ a spot where stagflation ░░░░░░░░ possible So I think ░░░░░░░░ s a possibility Uh ░░░░░░░░ with recession I know ░░░░░░░░ major analysts have been ░░░░░░░░ out odds between 25 ░░░░░░░░ 40 but from our ░░░░░░░░ that s sort of ░░░░░░░░ conservative view there So ░░░░░░░░ re not necessarily taking ░░░░░░░░ odds that high But ░░░░░░░░ you laid out is ░░░░░░░░ If we do see ░░░░░░░░ those numbers start to ░░░░░░░░ it will be a ░░░░░░░░ effect so to speak ░░░░░░░░ it Clark thanks very ░░░░░░░░ for joining us and ░░░░░░░░ us your perspective on ░░░░░░░░ markets Really appreciate your ░░░░░░░░ and your analysis Great ░░░░░░░░ markets will be coming ░░░░░░░░ in just a few ░░░░░░░░ We will be