Date
Summary
James Demmert Appears on ‘Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia’
Subjects
Source
Bloomberg

Name: Bloomberg
URL: http://www.bloomberg.com/tv/
Show
Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia
Name: Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia
URL: https://www.bloomberg.com/series/daybreak-asia
Persons
James Demmert

Name: James Demmert
Employment: Main Street Research
Position: Founder & Managing Partner
Event
–
Event location
–
Link
Not online media
Uploaded
07/10/2024 11:52 am
Owner
Type
Audio
Format
MP3
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Duration
0:07:51
Views
34
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Transcript
We re joined by ░░░░░░░░ dimmer cio at main ░░░░░░░░ research James a little ░░░░░░░░ more on pal here ░░░░░░░░ seems like he really ░░░░░░░░ to acknowledge that they ░░░░░░░░ fully aware of the ░░░░░░░░ of the a slowing ░░░░░░░░ the labor market But ░░░░░░░░ also wanted to make ░░░░░░░░ point quite strongly that ░░░░░░░░ fight against inflation is ░░░░░░░░ yet over and he ░░░░░░░░ really careful not to ░░░░░░░░ about The timing is ░░░░░░░░ that the right balance ░░░░░░░░ your view yeah they ░░░░░░░░ they re bending him ░░░░░░░░ they haven t broken ░░░░░░░░ yet so Search for ░░░░░░░░ point where he wants ░░░░░░░░ get in and I ░░░░░░░░ he s right you ░░░░░░░░ they they really wanna ░░░░░░░░ till the data really ░░░░░░░░ obviously that inflation boogie ░░░░░░░░ has gone before they ░░░░░░░░ ahead and and they ░░░░░░░░ cut rates and they ░░░░░░░░ be careful here You ░░░░░░░░ that you d you ░░░░░░░░ see the employment number ░░░░░░░░ coming down The inflation ░░░░░░░░ are obviously coming down ░░░░░░░░ down They do want ░░░░░░░░ be careful waiting too ░░░░░░░░ and I think that ░░░░░░░░ Why he s he ░░░░░░░░ of like starting the ░░░░░░░░ changed right from a ░░░░░░░░ quarter he s starting ░░░░░░░░ lean towards it s ░░░░░░░░ it s a question ░░░░░░░░ when not if than ░░░░░░░░ do think it s ░░░░░░░░ year So the swaps ░░░░░░░░ right now is projecting ░░░░░░░░ to read cuts between ░░░░░░░░ the end of a ░░░░░░░░ Maybe the first comes ░░░░░░░░ September Is that possible ░░░░░░░░ pretty much the way ░░░░░░░░ see it We do ░░░░░░░░ that but wee bit ░░░░░░░░ the thought that earnings ░░░░░░░░ driving this market and ░░░░░░░░ Fed might not even ░░░░░░░░ to cut but the ░░░░░░░░ recent data on inflation ░░░░░░░░ It suggests yes they ░░░░░░░░ they re probably gonna ░░░░░░░░ to come to it ░░░░░░░░ I d say or ░░░░░░░░ early as September they ░░░░░░░░ t wanna Get too ░░░░░░░░ to the election then ░░░░░░░░ viewed as oh gosh ░░░░░░░░ re doing this from ░░░░░░░░ of political stance so ░░░░░░░░ think they do it ░░░░░░░░ then later in September ░░░░░░░░ make would make sense ░░░░░░░░ that s just another ░░░░░░░░ if you will to ░░░░░░░░ rocket launching bull market ░░░░░░░░ were in know when ░░░░░░░░ Fed comes out just ░░░░░░░░ be port more fuel ░░░░░░░░ other booster of for ░░░░░░░░ rocket James do you ░░░░░░░░ back and forth about ░░░░░░░░ really comfortable with market ░░░░░░░░ and being also very ░░░░░░░░ or are you steadfast ░░░░░░░░ either one of the ░░░░░░░░ I am than a ░░░░░░░░ state of optimism and ░░░░░░░░ Honey got hit here ░░░░░░░░ joined the group at ░░░░░░░░ five years of the ░░░░░░░░ but I will say ░░░░░░░░ is it one of ░░░░░░░░ best set ups I ░░░░░░░░ seen for equities this ░░░░░░░░ That I ve seen ░░░░░░░░ decades so the optimism ░░░░░░░░ overtakes a concern and ░░░░░░░░ a we think this ░░░░░░░░ the certainly the first ░░░░░░░░ of a very powerful ░░░░░░░░ market That s the ░░░░░░░░ Investors don t wanna ░░░░░░░░ You know If you ░░░░░░░░ back at any bull ░░░░░░░░ the first year to ░░░░░░░░ where you get this ░░░░░░░░ like rocket launch like ░░░░░░░░ then you get to ░░░░░░░░ me which I think ░░░░░░░░ probably into into next ░░░░░░░░ and and beyond But ░░░░░░░░ here we re real ░░░░░░░░ optimism is as over ░░░░░░░░ a concern with there ░░░░░░░░ concerns we have I ░░░░░░░░ think we re going ░░░░░░░░ get a five percent ░░░░░░░░ least seven percent correction ░░░░░░░░ between now and the ░░░░░░░░ of the year even ░░░░░░░░ we do have a ░░░░░░░░ target numbers for the ░░░░░░░░ of year Markets in ░░░░░░░░ so in addition to ░░░░░░░░ monetary policy today Paul ░░░░░░░░ talking about the new ░░░░░░░░ regulations and he indicated ░░░░░░░░ regulators are close to ░░░░░░░░ to some type of ░░░░░░░░ of that plan to ░░░░░░░░ the big banks to ░░░░░░░░ more capital so maybe ░░░░░░░░ ll be required to ░░░░░░░░ a little bit less ░░░░░░░░ thought it into listing ░░░░░░░░ the financial s actually ░░░░░░░░ the us and p ░░░░░░░░ hundred higher today was ░░░░░░░░ up a tenth of ░░░░░░░░ percent Nonetheless the entire ░░░░░░░░ looked pretty robust We ░░░░░░░░ got earnings at the ░░░░░░░░ of the week from ░░░░░░░░ of the money Sanders ░░░░░░░░ are you feeling about ░░░░░░░░ big banks these days ░░░░░░░░ Brian this is a ░░░░░░░░ Doug This is a ░░░░░░░░ where investors really want ░░░░░░░░ own the banks These ░░░░░░░░ historically low Pe ratios ░░░░░░░░ the financial in the ░░░░░░░░ specifically and I think ░░░░░░░░ base even shrug that ░░░░░░░░ today based on the ░░░░░░░░ that the earnings are ░░░░░░░░ I think there is ░░░░░░░░ better than expected The ░░░░░░░░ are low in the ░░░░░░░░ is nodding to lowering ░░░░░░░░ in that is gonna ░░░░░░░░ a boon for the ░░░░░░░░ predicted the big ones ░░░░░░░░ I think investors want ░░░░░░░░ be really careful about ░░░░░░░░ them I think investors ░░░░░░░░ to step in here ░░░░░░░░ were at any weakness ░░░░░░░░ and own them It ░░░░░░░░ tricky with the banks ░░░░░░░░ I mean the big ░░░░░░░░ in particular JP Morgan ░░░░░░░░ done very well this ░░░░░░░░ and into banks generally ░░░░░░░░ done well They ve ░░░░░░░░ one of the sector ░░░░░░░░ that I ve been ░░░░░░░░ on gains up there ░░░░░░░░ close to with the ░░░░░░░░ tech company so take ░░░░░░░░ Are you going from ░░░░░░░░ seventy up to and ░░░░░░░░ two hundred and two ░░░░░░░░ but then ino you ░░░░░░░░ got various segments in ░░░░░░░░ regional banks No no ░░░░░░░░ know you ve got ░░░░░░░░ like Ah you know ░░░░░░░░ credit card companies that ░░░░░░░░ done very well How ░░░░░░░░ you actually target that ░░░░░░░░ instead of buying buying ░░░░░░░░ you know a big ░░░░░░░░ t f that puts ░░░░░░░░ mall in yeah That ░░░░░░░░ a really good question ░░░░░░░░ think investors have been ░░░░░░░░ better off this year ░░░░░░░░ by being more selective ░░░░░░░░ not owning let s ░░░░░░░░ a whole sector Because ░░░░░░░░ way you can avoid ░░░░░░░░ regionals really kick it ░░░░░░░░ of their own way ░░░░░░░░ it makes sense they ░░░░░░░░ They need rates to ░░░░░░░░ come down for sure ░░░░░░░░ s a lot of ░░░░░░░░ real estate is attached ░░░░░░░░ them oh and they ░░░░░░░░ t have a strong ░░░░░░░░ sheets of the larger ░░░░░░░░ So you know this ░░░░░░░░ the sort of cycle ░░░░░░░░ phase of it where ░░░░░░░░ wanna be a stock ░░░░░░░░ and I think you ░░░░░░░░ go with larger is ░░░░░░░░ right Bigger market shares ░░░░░░░░ balance sheets in the ░░░░░░░░ in India We use ░░░░░░░░ same litmus tests across ░░░░░░░░ sectors like tech It ░░░░░░░░ it in health care ░░░░░░░░ industrials so bigger is ░░░░░░░░ particularly in the beginning ░░░░░░░░ a new bull market ░░░░░░░░ investors you haven t ░░░░░░░░ gotten fully ambassador they ░░░░░░░░ still trillions of dollars ░░░░░░░░ uninvested assets laying around ░░░░░░░░ needs to come in ░░░░░░░░ market and so people ░░░░░░░░ going the safety trade ░░░░░░░░ big is better better ░░░░░░░░ sheets So if we ░░░░░░░░ agree that there s ░░░░░░░░ little But a dry ░░░░░░░░ on the side I ░░░░░░░░ I thought I heard ░░░░░░░░ say a moment ago ░░░░░░░░ to 10 percent correction ░░░░░░░░ time here in the ░░░░░░░░ term What is the ░░░░░░░░ for that Yeah I ░░░░░░░░ I that first of ░░░░░░░░ I would say it ░░░░░░░░ way overdue But I ░░░░░░░░ if it could be ░░░░░░░░ got earnings season here ░░░░░░░░ which I think is ░░░░░░░░ be robust But it ░░░░░░░░ not take much if ░░░░░░░░ had one tech company ░░░░░░░░ of come in Your ░░░░░░░░ have gone up a ░░░░░░░░ in the tech tech ░░░░░░░░ community and if If ░░░░░░░░ are little bit too ░░░░░░░░ and and one company ░░░░░░░░ it ll in a ░░░░░░░░ miss here the I ░░░░░░░░ it could rattle the ░░░░░░░░ I d say more ░░░░░░░░ a five to seven ░░░░░░░░ correction which is still ░░░░░░░░ shallow than normal and ░░░░░░░░ s only because there ░░░░░░░░ so much cash Every ░░░░░░░░ is a bit of ░░░░░░░░ pullback right All that ░░░░░░░░ of dollars in cash ░░░░░░░░ trying to get in ░░░░░░░░ that weakness But I ░░░░░░░░ it might be an ░░░░░░░░ type of thing that ░░░░░░░░ see a bit of ░░░░░░░░ pullback and I tire ░░░░░░░░ If they haven t ░░░░░░░░ in this market they ░░░░░░░░ need to use that ░░░░░░░░ sort of many correction ░░░░░░░░ put that money to ░░░░░░░░ towards the end of ░░░░░░░░ quick question on pcs ░░░░░░░░ um What what does ░░░░░░░░ tell you Well you ░░░░░░░░ the bigger buyer pcs ░░░░░░░░ other yeah there s ░░░░░░░░ corporate money spent there ░░░░░░░░ there s a lot ░░░░░░░░ individuals in consumers doing ░░░░░░░░ at at I was ░░░░░░░░ kids interested to see ░░░░░░░░ s numbers That was ░░░░░░░░ fantastic We been a ░░░░░░░░ of apple for quite ░░░░░░░░ time of I think ░░░░░░░░ it s shows That ░░░░░░░░ economy is still very ░░░░░░░░ Yup Our James thanks ░░░░░░░░ session James dimmer their ░░░░░░░░ Iowa main street to ░░░░░░░░
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