Steve Kornacki on Conor Lamb Win: ‘Not an Isolated Event,’ ‘Double Digit Swings,’ ‘Looks Like a Trend’
KORNACKI: "Yeah, look, I think the lesson, and maybe it’s not just for Democrats, or maybe the indicator, that’s the better word, the indicator that comes out of this is this is not an isolated event that we just saw here in Pennsylvania-18. Look at it this way. From the start of Donald Trump’s presidency, go back to April 2017, that's when we had our first congressional special election of the Trump era. You were then in a district in Kansas that Trump had won by 27 points, and that special election the Republican won but the margin fell down to 7 points. This is a pattern we’ve seen a few times since. We're now to Montana a couple months later. Trump had won the state by 21, the at-large congressional district also falls down to 7. Again, you’re seeing a double digit swing. How about South Carolina, the 5th District? Trump had won it by 19. Went all the way down to 3 in a special election. You did have Georgia 6, Trump won narrowly, Republicans won narrowly. That one is in there as well. But then you had Alabama. Trump won the state of Alabama by 28 points. Doug Jones ends up eking that thing out on election night. And here we go, this was trump by 20 and this is, you know, basically Democrat by .3, but you are getting double digit swings now in five of these congressional senatorial special elections. Double digit swings. That really looks like a trend."