PERSON: Allan Lichtman

American University

Professor

Allan Jay Lichtman (/ˈlɪktmən/; born 4 April 1947) is an American historian and political analyst who has taught at American University in Washington, D.C. since 1973. He is known for creating the Keys to the White House with Soviet seismologist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981.

The Keys to the White House is a system that uses 13 true/false criteria to predict whether the presidential candidate of the incumbent party will win or lose the next election. The system and Lichtman’s predictions based on it have received extensive media coverage. He has accurately predicted the outcomes of most presidential elections since 1984 using his interpretations of the system, though his predictions were incorrect in 2000 and 2024.

Lichtman ran for the U.S. Senate seat in Maryland during the year of 2006; he finished sixth in the Democratic primary. In 2017, Lichtman authored the book The Case for Impeachment, which laid out multiple arguments for an impeachment of Donald Trump.

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