RUSH TRANSCRIPT Beyond the ░░░░░░░░ we will count down ░░░░░░░░ the close on this ░░░░░░░░ Scarlet For more market ░░░░░░░░ with just under a ░░░░░░░░ to go we want ░░░░░░░░ welcome James timber Thank ░░░░░░░░ so much for speaking ░░░░░░░░ us today We are ░░░░░░░░ a tricky spot in ░░░░░░░░ investment cycle Tightening is ░░░░░░░░ or we are near ░░░░░░░░ worst of it Inflation ░░░░░░░░ to have peaked We ░░░░░░░░ not really began recession ░░░░░░░░ the worst part the ░░░░░░░░ slowdown Where does that ░░░░░░░░ investors in how they ░░░░░░░░ the markets James It ░░░░░░░░ a fascinated fascinating markets ░░░░░░░░ also a fascinating week ░░░░░░░░ were talking earlier with ░░░░░░░░ in the Fed front ░░░░░░░░ center I think investors ░░░░░░░░ need to not fall ░░░░░░░░ the trap of fooling ░░░░░░░░ as they had in ░░░░░░░░ last year Every rally ░░░░░░░░ the end of this ░░░░░░░░ market your the fundamental ░░░░░░░░ underneath is still not ░░░░░░░░ at the equilibrium where ░░░░░░░░ wanted to be whether ░░░░░░░░ is price of stocks ░░░░░░░░ much more the Fed ░░░░░░░░ to do Do not ░░░░░░░░ the Fed Here they ░░░░░░░░ Wednesday They have some ░░░░░░░░ they can go for ░░░░░░░░ for sure or even ░░░░░░░░ Scarlet We are not ░░░░░░░░ about the case for ░░░░░░░░ and up because the ░░░░░░░░ have priced in 55 ░░░░░░░░ points James There s ░░░░░░░░ that contrarian view With ░░░░░░░░ GDP report last week ░░░░░░░░ jobless numbers unemployment very ░░░░░░░░ They have a lot ░░░░░░░░ conviction to really try ░░░░░░░░ stamp out inflation It ░░░░░░░░ be strictly it can ░░░░░░░░ back quickly I think ░░░░░░░░ want to step out ░░░░░░░░ and make sure it ░░░░░░░░ gone before they let ░░░░░░░░ All they needed was ░░░░░░░░ economic numbers and labor ░░░░░░░░ numbers to maybe go ░░░░░░░░ 25 for sure or ░░░░░░░░ even 50 I think ░░░░░░░░ is enough that the ░░░░░░░░ is not so tenuous ░░░░░░░░ they can do it ░░░░░░░░ were talking financial conditions ░░░░░░░░ in how they have ░░░░░░░░ loose What does it ░░░░░░░░ to you as a ░░░░░░░░ indicator It paints a ░░░░░░░░ on what is happening ░░░░░░░░ across markets James Investors ░░░░░░░░ been misguided on the ░░░░░░░░ with the looser of ░░░░░░░░ in the rallies You ░░░░░░░░ at the last four ░░░░░░░░ in the mirror market ░░░░░░░░ all look like this ░░░░░░░░ things the Fed is ░░░░░░░░ to be done It ░░░░░░░░ the other way around ░░░░░░░░ Fed does not want ░░░░░░░░ see the market going ░░░░░░░░ like this financial conditions ░░░░░░░░ looser It defeats with ░░░░░░░░ have been doing over ░░░░░░░░ last three quarters It ░░░░░░░░ another being on the ░░░░░░░░ of do they go ░░░░░░░░ or for If they ░░░░░░░░ a shot to be ░░░░░░░░ this will be it ░░░░░░░░ What about factory in ░░░░░░░░ like oil prices Oil ░░░░░░░░ are back since 2022 ░░░░░░░░ you start to see ░░░░░░░░ to dollar oil again ░░░░░░░░ what extent does that ░░░░░░░░ of the step down ░░░░░░░░ Fed is taking James ░░░░░░░░ were to the were ░░░░░░░░ to the cycle of ░░░░░░░░ rates They do not ░░░░░░░░ to get up this ░░░░░░░░ early That was certainly ░░░░░░░░ them in harm s ░░░░░░░░ if they got up ░░░░░░░░ and oil rice is ░░░░░░░░ change to 100 oil ░░░░░░░░ change to 100 Gas ░░░░░░░░ are already going up ░░░░░░░░ worrying should I be ░░░░░░░░ should we earnings Earnings ░░░░░░░░ stock Even if you ░░░░░░░░ get that surprise and ░░░░░░░░ in the supplies what ░░░░░░░░ that do with fred ░░░░░░░░ James Markets are already ░░░░░░░░ a hard time with ░░░░░░░░ credibility I think that ░░░░░░░░ why they will be ░░░░░░░░ about continuing this case ░░░░░░░░ even a higher case ░░░░░░░░ make sure the one ░░░░░░░░ they have decided and ░░░░░░░░ to be honest about ░░░░░░░░ about getting rid of ░░░░░░░░ Even if they go ░░░░░░░░ on Wednesday they will ░░░░░░░░ a lot of commentary ░░░░░░░░ why they could go ░░░░░░░░ and higher Money think ░░░░░░░░ bond market is convinced ░░░░░░░░ will get rate cuts ░░░░░░░░ do you think the ░░░░░░░░ market is convinced we ░░░░░░░░ give rate cuts by ░░░░░░░░ end of the year ░░░░░░░░ If you look at ░░░░░░░░ of the rallies it ░░░░░░░░ the bond market they ░░░░░░░░ coincided with the equity ░░░░░░░░ calling and vice versa ░░░░░░░░ think you are seeing ░░░░░░░░ same thing From our ░░░░░░░░ the research that we ░░░░░░░░ we can see rates ░░░░░░░░ one more step upward ░░░░░░░░ are close to the ░░░░░░░░ of the bear market ░░░░░░░░ are getting close to ░░░░░░░░ end of the conundrum ░░░░░░░░ inflation and recession We ░░░░░░░░ just not there yet ░░░░░░░░ my kids always say ░░░░░░░░ are we there yet ░░░░░░░░ not yet The thing ░░░░░░░░ most of us are ░░░░░░░░ at his patients They ░░░░░░░░ shown that terrible asked ░░░░░░░░ patients They have shown ░░░░░░░░ all year When the ░░░░░░░░ gaps of the bear ░░░░░░░░ do investors go into ░░░░░░░░ safety defensive placed that ░░░░░░░░ been leading us in ░░░░░░░░ kind of market rally ░░░░░░░░ even decline they tend ░░░░░░░░ hold up the best ░░░░░░░░ What have less stock ░░░░░░░░ You want to use ░░░░░░░░ loss on positions that ░░░░░░░░ a lot of data ░░░░░░░░ if you have a ░░░░░░░░ of tech exposure or ░░░░░░░░ low quality stuff that ░░░░░░░░ like the last six ░░░░░░░░ This is an attempt ░░░░░░░░ tear that down The ░░░░░░░░ that are defensive the ░░░░░░░░ utilities health care Until ░░░░░░░░ kind of get to ░░░░░░░░ ratios are not at ░░░░░░░░ which is where they ░░░░░░░░ right now but closer ░░░░░░░░ where markets are right ░░░░░░░░ Scarlet Thank you so ░░░░░░░░ Founder of cio research ░░░░░░░░ says we are in ░░░░░░░░ last phase of this ░░░░░░░░ market but it could