Top Swedish Epidemiologist: There Will Be Little Difference with Countries Who’ve Locked Down and Who Didn’t

Hello and welcome thanks ░░░░░░░░ tuning in you are ░░░░░░░░ lockdown TV this is ░░░░░░░░ pop up news and ░░░░░░░░ program from unheard throughout ░░░░░░░░ lockdown weeks we have ░░░░░░░░ bringing conversations and interesting ░░░░░░░░ together to work out ░░░░░░░░ s going on and ░░░░░░░░ we should be thinking ░░░░░░░░ this current crisis I ░░░░░░░░ delighted that today we ░░░░░░░░ joined down the line ░░░░░░░░ Sweden by dr Yuan ░░░░░░░░ secure and dr Yi ░░░░░░░░ thank you so much ░░░░░░░░ making the time today ░░░░░░░░ pleasure if I can ░░░░░░░░ you you helped me ░░░░░░░░ little bit here but ░░░░░░░░ trained originally at the ░░░░░░░░ School of Tropical Medicine ░░░░░░░░ that right no it ░░░░░░░░ before that I did ░░░░░░░░ used to be an ░░░░░░░░ disease clinical doctor and ░░░░░░░░ a lot with AIDS ░░░░░░░░ during the 1980s and ░░░░░░░░ s what put me ░░░░░░░░ epidemiology and then I ░░░░░░░░ one year two years ░░░░░░░░ the medicine in the ░░░░░░░░ 90s and then I ░░░░░░░░ back to Sweden and ░░░░░░░░ I became state epidemiologist ░░░░░░░░ Sweden which he means ░░░░░░░░ control over all infectious ░░░░░░░░ which is the job ░░░░░░░░ marathon he has so ░░░░░░░░ actually hired him 20 ░░░░░░░░ ago and then I ░░░░░░░░ his boss and now ░░░░░░░░ Bibles but he s ░░░░░░░░ actually quite well and ░░░░░░░░ you then you then ░░░░░░░░ chief scientist at the ░░░░░░░░ Center for Disease Control ░░░░░░░░ and what what is ░░░░░░░░ roles do you have ░░░░░░░░ who are you advising ░░░░░░░░ the moment I m ░░░░░░░░ understating and let the ░░░░░░░░ agency for public health ░░░░░░░░ a consultant basis I ░░░░░░░░ retired radius I m ░░░░░░░░ this mostly because it ░░░░░░░░ fun you also you ░░░░░░░░ you re on a ░░░░░░░░ with them earlier today ░░░░░░░░ I m advising the ░░░░░░░░ general together with a ░░░░░░░░ of old scientists but ░░░░░░░░ s an unpaid is ░░░░░░░░ an honorary post in ░░░░░░░░ and I m so ░░░░░░░░ ours it were established ░░░░░░░░ credentials to talk with ░░░░░░░░ on this topic there ░░░░░░░░ been a lot of ░░░░░░░░ thinking and a lot ░░░░░░░░ confusion about what the ░░░░░░░░ response to a threat ░░░░░░░░ as call it 19 ░░░░░░░░ should be and I ░░░░░░░░ wanted to begin by ░░░░░░░░ your kind of summary ░░░░░░░░ of of you know ░░░░░░░░ Sweden is differing from ░░░░░░░░ countries and why you ░░░░░░░░ that is the main ░░░░░░░░ is that we or ░░░░░░░░ Swedish government decided early ░░░░░░░░ January that the measures ░░░░░░░░ should take against the ░░░░░░░░ should be evidence based ░░░░░░░░ when you start looking ░░░░░░░░ for the measures are ░░░░░░░░ taken now by different ░░░░░░░░ you find that very ░░░░░░░░ of them have the ░░░░░░░░ of evidence base but ░░░░░░░░ we know that s ░░░░░░░░ for a hundred and ░░░░░░░░ years or more and ░░░░░░░░ is washing your hands ░░░░░░░░ good for you and ░░░░░░░░ for others when you ░░░░░░░░ in epidemic but the ░░░░░░░░ like border closures school ░░░░░░░░ social distancing there s ░░░░░░░░ no science behind most ░░░░░░░░ these so what is ░░░░░░░░ current policy in Sweden ░░░░░░░░ distancing is part of ░░░░░░░░ policy isn t it ░░░░░░░░ what is the regime ░░░░░░░░ Sweden has gone with ░░░░░░░░ main difference to other ░░░░░░░░ is that there is ░░░░░░░░ you re not locked ░░░░░░░░ in your home if ░░░░░░░░ go out buy food ░░░░░░░░ groceries or drugs I ░░░░░░░░ medicines there s no ░░░░░░░░ to stop you in ░░░░░░░░ street and said ask ░░░░░░░░ what you re doing ░░░░░░░░ that s one thing ░░░░░░░░ are asked to stay ░░░░░░░░ but there is no ░░░░░░░░ or enforcement of that ░░░░░░░░ do it anyway so ░░░░░░░░ s one we have ░░░░░░░░ rule that the crowd ░░░░░░░░ be bigger than 50 ░░░░░░░░ so I can still ░░░░░░░░ an event for 49 ░░░░░░░░ yes good and the ░░░░░░░░ the upper schools are ░░░░░░░░ secondary education here versus ░░░░░░░░ schools at age 15 ░░░░░░░░ are opened what more ░░░░░░░░ we have don t ░░░░░░░░ nursing homes or houses ░░░░░░░░ old people are closed ░░░░░░░░ visitors so it sounds ░░░░░░░░ it s a moderate ░░░░░░░░ distancing regime than we ░░░░░░░░ sorry it s very ░░░░░░░░ to the one that ░░░░░░░░ U K had before ░░░░░░░░ was a famous paper ░░░░░░░░ by the Interior College ░░░░░░░░ the modelers who made ░░░░░░░░ for infectious diseases that ░░░░░░░░ out on the day ░░░░░░░░ you made a u ░░░░░░░░ in England yes tell ░░░░░░░░ the original strategy in ░░░░░░░░ U K and became ░░░░░░░░ as a kind of ░░░░░░░░ immunity it was called ░░░░░░░░ before we get come ░░░░░░░░ to talk about the ░░░░░░░░ model which I would ░░░░░░░░ to talk about is ░░░░░░░░ correct to call it ░░░░░░░░ immunity and and is ░░░░░░░░ the Swedish strategy it ░░░░░░░░ not a strategy but ░░░░░░░░ s a by product ░░░░░░░░ the start but the ░░░░░░░░ to protect the old ░░░░░░░░ the frail tried to ░░░░░░░░ their risk of becoming ░░░░░░░░ and taking care of ░░░░░░░░ if they get infected ░░░░░░░░ if you do that ░░░░░░░░ way we re doing ░░░░░░░░ you would probably get ░░░░░░░░ immunity and then but ░░░░░░░░ s a byproduct order ░░░░░░░░ s not the main ░░░░░░░░ to do it so ░░░░░░░░ were saying and so ░░░░░░░░ initial U K response ░░░░░░░░ to be similar to ░░░░░░░░ you was SUIM is ░░░░░░░░ now and you thought ░░░░░░░░ was better yeah and ░░░░░░░░ were very pleased we ░░░░░░░░ having the same policies ░░░░░░░░ the U K that ░░░░░░░░ some credibility to what ░░░░░░░░ were doing but then ░░░░░░░░ Johnson made it made ░░░░░░░░ hundred and 80 degree ░░░░░░░░ yes he was definitely ░░░░░░░░ a lot of pressure ░░░░░░░░ lots of European countries ░░░░░░░░ doing a formal lockdown ░░░░░░░░ that point but the ░░░░░░░░ point did seem to ░░░░░░░░ that into your Imperial ░░░░░░░░ report which all costs ░░░░░░░░ hundred and 10 thousand ░░░░░░░░ in the U K ░░░░░░░░ a completely unmitigated approach ░░░░░░░░ hundred and fifty thousand ░░░░░░░░ with a mitigated approach ░░░░░░░░ is roughly equivalent to ░░░░░░░░ you re doing in ░░░░░░░░ and then it suggests ░░░░░░░░ he might be as ░░░░░░░░ as 20 000 if ░░░░░░░░ did a full suppression ░░░░░░░░ lockdown what was your ░░░░░░░░ of that paper I ░░░░░░░░ it s not very ░░░░░░░░ and the thing that ░░░░░░░░ miss little is any ░░░░░░░░ for infectious disease bred ░░░░░░░░ very popular many people ░░░░░░░░ them they re good ░░░░░░░░ teaching they seldom tell ░░░░░░░░ the truth because I ░░░░░░░░ a small parenthesis which ░░░░░░░░ could have assumed that ░░░░░░░░ outbreak would start in ░░░░░░░░ Italy in Europe difficult ░░░░░░░░ model that one and ░░░░░░░░ such model it looks ░░░░░░░░ there are strange mathematical ░░░░░░░░ and integrals ions and ░░░░░░░░ but the it rests ░░░░░░░░ the assumptions and the ░░░░░░░░ in that origin could ░░░░░░░░ heavily criticized for I ░░░░░░░░ t go through that ░░░░░░░░ would take to the ░░░░░░░░ of your day if ░░░░░░░░ went through the mo ░░░░░░░░ paper was never published ░░░░░░░░ it s not peer ░░░░░░░░ which scientific paper should ░░░░░░░░ it s just an ░░░░░░░░ department and report from ░░░░░░░░ and it s fascinating ░░░░░░░░ don t think any ░░░░░░░░ scientific endeavor has made ░░░░░░░░ an impression on the ░░░░░░░░ as that rather debatable ░░░░░░░░ so it s your ░░░░░░░░ that it was overly ░░░░░░░░ I guess oh yes ░░░░░░░░ much so so what ░░░░░░░░ know I mean I ░░░░░░░░ it comes down to ░░░░░░░░ degree of speculation but ░░░░░░░░ s your impression of ░░░░░░░░ serious the disease is ░░░░░░░░ what kind of fatalities ░░░░░░░░ would be looking at ░░░░░░░░ we had a more ░░░░░░░░ or more mitigated approach ░░░░░░░░ s the number of ░░░░░░░░ in in the U ░░░░░░░░ now I don t ░░░░░░░░ a thousand so you ░░░░░░░░ getting close to 20 ░░░░░░░░ yeah but probably not ░░░░░░░░ thousand I think well ░░░░░░░░ me back one step ░░░░░░░░ thing that the model ░░░░░░░░ missed is that it ░░░░░░░░ that a hospital capacity ░░░░░░░░ remain the same and ░░░░░░░░ s not what s ░░░░░░░░ anywhere I mean in ░░░░░░░░ we tripled our intensive ░░░░░░░░ capacity and I think ░░░░░░░░ s happening in the ░░░░░░░░ K as well that ░░░░░░░░ paper completely overlooks that ░░░░░░░░ s such that as ░░░░░░░░ static thing hmm pursue ░░░░░░░░ just to sort of ░░░░░░░░ back on this like ░░░░░░░░ had the argument what ░░░░░░░░ people watching will be ░░░░░░░░ and I think what ░░░░░░░░ people who support the ░░░░░░░░ would say and that ░░░░░░░░ the overwhelming majority of ░░░░░░░░ in Politics and in ░░░░░░░░ media is that the ░░░░░░░░ the curve is now ░░░░░░░░ and the numbers of ░░░░░░░░ are gradually coming down ░░░░░░░░ a daily basis is ░░░░░░░░ of the lockdown and ░░░░░░░░ it s that shows ░░░░░░░░ the policy has worked ░░░░░░░░ professor Niall Ferguson who ░░░░░░░░ the will led the ░░░░░░░░ papers suggest that he ░░░░░░░░ by his prediction that ░░░░░░░░ 000 dog people would ░░░░░░░░ died had that not ░░░░░░░░ place so if it ░░░░░░░░ t the lockdown that ░░░░░░░░ been flattening our curve ░░░░░░░░ else could have been ░░░░░░░░ one thing is immunity ░░░░░░░░ other is that the ░░░░░░░░ who are frail and ░░░░░░░░ will die first and ░░░░░░░░ that group of people ░░░░░░░░ sort of thinned out ░░░░░░░░ will get less deaths ░░░░░░░░ well the other thing ░░░░░░░░ that when you start ░░░░░░░░ exit strategy that s ░░░░░░░░ favorite word now in ░░░░░░░░ this public effort the ░░░░░░░░ strategy when you start ░░░░░░░░ one you ll have ░░░░░░░░ other deaths that we ░░░░░░░░ already yes so I ░░░░░░░░ does that mean then ░░░░░░░░ as the disease passes ░░░░░░░░ the population you know ░░░░░░░░ we gonna see second ░░░░░░░░ third spikes now after ░░░░░░░░ it would be part ░░░░░░░░ the exit strategy because ░░░░░░░░ only way to check ░░░░░░░░ pure if you taking ░░░░░░░░ one restriction and say ░░░░░░░░ open the schools again ░░░░░░░░ an example how do ░░░░░░░░ evaluate that you have ░░░░░░░░ see numbers are going ░░░░░░░░ again more people are ░░░░░░░░ we have to stop ░░░░░░░░ we have pulled back ░░░░░░░░ softening and try another ░░░░░░░░ s what exit strategy ░░░░░░░░ be in all countries ░░░░░░░░ will ease up a ░░░░░░░░ on a restriction see ░░░░░░░░ happens over the next ░░░░░░░░ 3 weeks we didn ░░░░░░░░ work wherever we re ░░░░░░░░ that we try another ░░░░░░░░ wheel if that one ░░░░░░░░ work and that so ░░░░░░░░ is every country will ░░░░░░░░ to do it that ░░░░░░░░ and that means that ░░░░░░░░ increasing number of deaths ░░░░░░░░ be part of checking ░░░░░░░░ strategy should be kept ░░░░░░░░ not so what should ░░░░░░░░ be doing instead well ░░░░░░░░ can t when I ░░░░░░░░ heard which is now ░░░░░░░░ week ago about the ░░░░░░░░ draconic measures that were ░░░░░░░░ I asked myself how ░░░░░░░░ they going to climb ░░░░░░░░ from that one when ░░░░░░░░ they open the schools ░░░░░░░░ what should be the ░░░░░░░░ to open schools did ░░░░░░░░ or the put strong ░░░░░░░░ very decisive politicians in ░░░░░░░░ think about how to ░░░░░░░░ out of this when ░░░░░░░░ introduced it and I ░░░░░░░░ that would be a ░░░░░░░░ for the U K ░░░░░░░░ well so yes let ░░░░░░░░ take as a comparison ░░░░░░░░ re the neighboring countries ░░░░░░░░ Scandinavia a lot of ░░░░░░░░ are sending around these ░░░░░░░░ that showed that Denmark ░░░░░░░░ Norway and Finland have ░░░░░░░░ much fewer deaths on ░░░░░░░░ per capita basis and ░░░░░░░░ the rate is still ░░░░░░░░ and they take that ░░░░░░░░ proof essentially that the ░░░░░░░░ should have gone into ░░░░░░░░ more draconian lockdown what ░░░░░░░░ you say to those ░░░░░░░░ well first it s ░░░░░░░░ crooked Denmark secondly one ░░░░░░░░ thing is that Norway ░░░░░░░░ nursing homes in Norway ░░░░░░░░ usually quite small whereas ░░░░░░░░ nursing homes in in ░░░░░░░░ are quite big with ░░░░░░░░ of people which means ░░░░░░░░ if you get in ░░░░░░░░ virus into one nursing ░░░░░░░░ in Norway which will ░░░░░░░░ for to deeper than ░░░░░░░░ people so that s ░░░░░░░░ of the richest out ░░░░░░░░ the reason for Finland ░░░░░░░░ epidemic never really took ░░░░░░░░ to cope there they ░░░░░░░░ their measures before it ░░░░░░░░ even started but I ░░░░░░░░ we should have this ░░░░░░░░ a year from now ░░░░░░░░ s let s decide ░░░░░░░░ we do on the ░░░░░░░░ of April 20 21 ░░░░░░░░ think that the difference ░░░░░░░░ countries would be quite ░░░░░░░░ in the end so ░░░░░░░░ you don t think ░░░░░░░░ the severity of the ░░░░░░░░ intervening measures are gonna ░░░░░░░░ that much difference no ░░░░░░░░ don t think so ░░░░░░░░ think it should I ░░░░░░░░ you what I really ░░░░░░░░ I almost never do ░░░░░░░░ I think what we ░░░░░░░░ seeing is a tsunami ░░░░░░░░ we usually quite my ░░░░░░░░ which is sweeping over ░░░░░░░░ and some countries do ░░░░░░░░ and some countries do ░░░░░░░░ and some cancer dude ░░░░░░░░ t do that and ░░░░░░░░ the end there was ░░░░░░░░ little difference so when ░░░░░░░░ say it s a ░░░░░░░░ quite mild to see ░░░░░░░░ what do you mean ░░░░░░░░ that that most people ░░░░░░░░ get it will never ░░░░░░░░ notice they were infected ░░░░░░░░ does that mean that ░░░░░░░░ think the actual fatality ░░░░░░░░ of this diseases is ░░░░░░░░ lower than the numbers ░░░░░░░░ have been talked about ░░░░░░░░ much lower so do ░░░░░░░░ have have you made ░░░░░░░░ speculations as to what ░░░░░░░░ of zone the real ░░░░░░░░ rate might be in ░░░░░░░░ think it would be ░░░░░░░░ a severe influenza season ░░░░░░░░ same as and which ░░░░░░░░ be an order of ░░░░░░░░ 1 percent maybe so ░░░░░░░░ would suggest then for ░░░░░░░░ country like the U ░░░░░░░░ that has already had ░░░░░░░░ heading towards 20 000 ░░░░░░░░ that would suggest that ░░░░░░░░ many millions of people ░░░░░░░░ already had it yes ░░░░░░░░ you believe do you ░░░░░░░░ that is also true ░░░░░░░░ Sweden then that admit ░░░░░░░░ a substantial percentage of ░░░░░░░░ population has had it ░░░░░░░░ I m rather certain ░░░░░░░░ that actually and when ░░░░░░░░ get we don t ░░░░░░░░ the tests really yet ░░░░░░░░ you know you have ░░░░░░░░ two kinda you know ░░░░░░░░ don t you cancer ░░░░░░░░ yeah one that tells ░░░░░░░░ you have it now ░░░░░░░░ one that tells you ░░░░░░░░ you had it at ░░░░░░░░ point before an immunity ░░░░░░░░ serology tests and they ░░░░░░░░ just being developed and ░░░░░░░░ being employed I know ░░░░░░░░ discussions with with friends ░░░░░░░░ the U K that ░░░░░░░░ started last week with ░░░░░░░░ 500 such tests and ░░░░░░░░ were gone with eight ░░░░░░░░ one week and it ░░░░░░░░ be about a thousand ░░░░░░░░ week and when you ░░░░░░░░ tests that show with ░░░░░░░░ that have the disease ░░░░░░░░ ll see that most ░░░░░░░░ them never even dreamt ░░░░░░░░ had it but we ░░░░░░░░ t have yet any ░░░░░░░░ antibody tests I don ░░░░░░░░ know you re right ░░░░░░░░ it s coming though ░░░░░░░░ re confident that we ░░░░░░░░ get those tests oh ░░░░░░░░ there s a matter ░░░░░░░░ time and and so ░░░░░░░░ sort of percentage of ░░░░░░░░ population do you think ░░░░░░░░ will discover has had ░░░░░░░░ once once we get ░░░░░░░░ antibody testing in place ░░░░░░░░ least home in the ░░░░░░░░ Kingdom what do you ░░░░░░░░ in Sweden as well ░░░░░░░░ countries so the whole ░░░░░░░░ of rationale for introducing ░░░░░░░░ lockdowns across Europe that ░░░░░░░░ created such unbelievable side ░░░░░░░░ and pretty much stops ░░░░░░░░ whole world in its ░░░░░░░░ you believe is a ░░░░░░░░ policy and do you ░░░░░░░░ it s doing more ░░░░░░░░ than good yes although ░░░░░░░░ mean if you listen ░░░░░░░░ I m saying is ░░░░░░░░ people who will die ░░░░░░░░ few months later are ░░░░░░░░ now and that s ░░░░░░░░ months from their lives ░░░░░░░░ that s maybe not ░░░░░░░░ but comparing that to ░░░░░░░░ effects of the lockdown ░░░░░░░░ may be I mean ░░░░░░░░ am I most afraid ░░░░░░░░ it s the dictatorial ░░░░░░░░ in Eastern Europe that ░░░░░░░░ bond is now dictator ░░░░░░░░ Hungary forever there s ░░░░░░░░ finishing date I think ░░░░░░░░ same is popping up ░░░░░░░░ other countries it makeup ░░░░░░░░ up in more established ░░░░░░░░ as well I think ░░░░░░░░ ramifications can be huge ░░░░░░░░ this we don t ░░░░░░░░ start seeing that it ░░░░░░░░ so you think the ░░░░░░░░ policy from the start ░░░░░░░░ to get this clear ░░░░░░░░ have been to shield ░░░░░░░░ and vulnerable groups then ░░░░░░░░ ve failed so we ░░░░░░░░ t fade we not ░░░░░░░░ our toes enough to ░░░░░░░░ feel guilty but we ░░░░░░░░ have banned visitors earlier ░░░░░░░░ of the people working ░░░░░░░░ nursing homes are from ░░░░░░░░ countries they re refugees ░░░░░░░░ or asylum seekers in ░░░░░░░░ they re Swedish may ░░░░░░░░ be perfect they may ░░░░░░░░ always be understand the ░░░░░░░░ that has been spread ░░░░░░░░ the population there are ░░░░░░░░ things we could have ░░░░░░░░ better a couple of ░░░░░░░░ or a couple of ░░░░░░░░ ago so this at ░░░░░░░░ point we are now ░░░░░░░░ you re advocating in ░░░░░░░░ we protected groups better ░░░░░░░░ as far as the ░░░░░░░░ of the population is ░░░░░░░░ concerned we just allow ░░░░░░░░ to pass through the ░░░░░░░░ essentially essentially yes which ░░░░░░░░ I mean I know ░░░░░░░░ it s now commonly ░░░░░░░░ by what we call ░░░░░░░░ herd immunity basically because ░░░░░░░░ s not just the ░░░░░░░░ and frail I mean ░░░░░░░░ are the people that ░░░░░░░░ be protected but I ░░░░░░░░ t think you can ░░░░░░░░ it it s pretty ░░░░░░░░ try you can stop ░░░░░░░░ for some time but ░░░░░░░░ I mean countries that ░░░░░░░░ been successful South Korea ░░░░░░░░ giving up now they ░░░░░░░░ t maintain their policy ░░░░░░░░ I don t know ░░░░░░░░ Taiwan they were quite ░░░░░░░░ a Singapore similar problem ░░░░░░░░ countries that are held ░░░░░░░░ is the most successful ░░░░░░░░ some cases once the ░░░░░░░░ managed to suppress the ░░░░░░░░ you think that it ░░░░░░░░ just a question of ░░░░░░░░ and actually they won ░░░░░░░░ be able to hold ░░░░░░░░ back No so so ░░░░░░░░ should we judge success ░░░░░░░░ it seems like numbers ░░░░░░░░ deaths does seem like ░░░░░░░░ fair a measure but ░░░░░░░░ you re saying that ░░░░░░░░ re essentially deaths that ░░░░░░░░ just going to happen ░░░░░░░░ you know it will ░░░░░░░░ to some people that ░░░░░░░░ can say he s ░░░░░░░░ cold hearted approach they ░░░░░░░░ that you know if ░░░░░░░░ re saying they re ░░░░░░░░ to die anyway so ░░░░░░░░ should allow the disease ░░░░░░░░ take its path I ░░░░░░░░ a lot of people ░░░░░░░░ feel that a government ░░░░░░░░ t sit back and ░░░░░░░░ that if they re ░░░░░░░░ know if now having ░░░░░░░░ this locked and we ░░░░░░░░ headed towards 20 000 ░░░░░░░░ how many deaths might ░░░░░░░░ have had if we ░░░░░░░░ had no lockdown would ░░░░░░░░ have been more we ░░░░░░░░ probably bit more but ░░░░░░░░ the end the result ░░░░░░░░ be rather much the ░░░░░░░░ and I agreed a ░░░░░░░░ callous to say that ░░░░░░░░ people we re not ░░░░░░░░ that we same protective ░░░░░░░░ to slow the spread ░░░░░░░░ the epidemic a bit ░░░░░░░░ that the health care ░░░░░░░░ will manage when we ░░░░░░░░ many sick people minute ░░░░░░░░ ill people but it ░░░░░░░░ more there I don ░░░░░░░░ think you can t ░░░░░░░░ at some point the ░░░░░░░░ it s like a ░░░░░░░░ is not a bad ░░░░░░░░ will roll over Europe ░░░░░░░░ matter what you do ░░░░░░░░ will will as it ░░░░░░░░ in sooner or later ░░░░░░░░ presumably treatments will improve ░░░░░░░░ we ll get better ░░░░░░░░ knowing how to treat ░░░░░░░░ it already feels like ░░░░░░░░ initial focus on ventilation ░░░░░░░░ shifted to other ideas ░░░░░░░░ people are thinking of ░░░░░░░░ ways to treat it ░░░░░░░░ that in itself not ░░░░░░░░ argument for suppressing it ░░░░░░░░ much but how long ░░░░░░░░ a democracy do you ░░░░░░░░ it would keep a ░░░░░░░░ down how long will ░░░░░░░░ take before people say ░░░░░░░░ I m not taking ░░░░░░░░ can do it in ░░░░░░░░ in China you can ░░░░░░░░ it you can tell ░░░░░░░░ to stay at home ░░░░░░░░ you can weld back ░░░░░░░░ door so they can ░░░░░░░░ get out but in ░░░░░░░░ democracy you can t ░░░░░░░░ also be 3 4 ░░░░░░░░ people will say well ░░░░░░░░ don t know anyone ░░░░░░░░ had the co vid ░░░░░░░░ I haven t met ░░░░░░░░ I won t go ░░░░░░░░ I want to go ░░░░░░░░ to the pub and ░░░░░░░░ how long do you ░░░░░░░░ you could look people ░░░░░░░░ like this stay in ░░░░░░░░ home you need a ░░░░░░░░ to go to the ░░░░░░░░ and we don t ░░░░░░░░ need a permit but ░░░░░░░░ I mean I I ░░░░░░░░ we ve now just ░░░░░░░░ it extended by three ░░░░░░░░ you know there is ░░░░░░░░ enormous amount of public ░░░░░░░░ for it and that ░░░░░░░░ one of the interesting ░░░░░░░░ about this that at ░░░░░░░░ moment the public is ░░░░░░░░ much on side with ░░░░░░░░ lockdown in the United ░░░░░░░░ some people seem to ░░░░░░░░ it Laughter there may ░░░░░░░░ that it s hard ░░░░░░░░ persuade people to go ░░░░░░░░ in some way but ░░░░░░░░ you feel doctor years ░░░░░░░░ that the policies that ░░░░░░░░ been put in place ░░░░░░░░ the U K and ░░░░░░░░ other European governments how ░░░░░░░░ they come about you ░░░░░░░░ been a leading epidemiologist ░░░░░░░░ your whole career you ░░░░░░░░ with influencers and czars ░░░░░░░░ you advise the World ░░░░░░░░ Organization what was it ░░░░░░░░ this pandemic that was ░░░░░░░░ different that has led ░░░░░░░░ this global shut down ░░░░░░░░ disease a lot of ░░░░░░░░ dying you don t ░░░░░░░░ really what will happen ░░░░░░░░ this fear of contagion ░░░░░░░░ think is almost genetic ░░░░░░░░ people and showing political ░░░░░░░░ decisiveness force very important ░░░░░░░░ politicians do you think ░░░░░░░░ fact that it came ░░░░░░░░ of China and we ░░░░░░░░ witnessed such a enormous ░░░░░░░░ quarantining whole provinces and ░░░░░░░░ on set the tone ░░░░░░░░ some way and that ░░░░░░░░ felt like the response ░░░░░░░░ be wouldn t let ░░░░░░░░ do like the Chinese ░░░░░░░░ but again you can ░░░░░░░░ compare to China it ░░░░░░░░ a different world and ░░░░░░░░ you think you could ░░░░░░░░ the looked and to ░░░░░░░░ the old people until ░░░░░░░░ have good drugs and ░░░░░░░░ vaccines six months a ░░░░░░░░ 18 months I think ░░░░░░░░ would get a bit ░░░░░░░░ of it even if ░░░░░░░░ support the policy in ░░░░░░░░ U K so a ░░░░░░░░ of specific things that ░░░░░░░░ occurred to me during ░░░░░░░░ conversation one is how ░░░░░░░░ deaths do you foresee ░░░░░░░░ Sweden your effort you ░░░░░░░░ 400 or I think ░░░░░░░░ will be like a ░░░░░░░░ influenza and it s ░░░░░░░░ with your plants up ░░░░░░░░ the flu comes we ░░░░░░░░ say oh the flu ░░░░░░░░ coming like every winter ░░░░░░░░ s in the papers ░░░░░░░░ blue is here okay ░░░░░░░░ it usually kills in ░░░░░░░░ country around 1 000 ░░░░░░░░ 000 people but it ░░░░░░░░ normal its influenza we ░░░░░░░░ it every year and ░░░░░░░░ re old and they ░░░░░░░░ going to die soon ░░░░░░░░ so no one is ░░░░░░░░ upset about influenza but ░░░░░░░░ think even if in ░░░░░░░░ I came around as ░░░░░░░░ new disease you never ░░░░░░░░ it before but suddenly ░░░░░░░░ new disease called in ░░░░░░░░ a popped up we ░░░░░░░░ have exactly the same ░░░░░░░░ as we have now ░░░░░░░░ I think the number ░░░░░░░░ this will about be ░░░░░░░░ the same as in ░░░░░░░░ Siberia grams of a ░░░░░░░░ Sweden how many are ░░░░░░░░ 50 million yeah 65 ░░░░░░░░ so multiply by six ░░░░░░░░ it would be 12 ░░░░░░░░ cases and in the ░░░░░░░░ K maybe think and ░░░░░░░░ lottery influenza deaths are ░░░░░░░░ booked or they re ░░░░░░░░ recorded in that way ░░░░░░░░ in Norman in France ░░░░░░░░ so I think this ░░░░░░░░ similar above the same ░░░░░░░░ it may be double ░░░░░░░░ much but it won ░░░░░░░░ be 10 times as ░░░░░░░░ and the the reports ░░░░░░░░ hospitals that are very ░░░░░░░░ are made that it ░░░░░░░░ the way disease progresses ░░░░░░░░ different from influenza it ░░░░░░░░ different it s not ░░░░░░░░ same disease as a ░░░░░░░░ and but it is ░░░░░░░░ s no the shape ░░░░░░░░ the epidemic is not ░░░░░░░░ different there are a ░░░░░░░░ differences for example the ░░░░░░░░ written by children and ░░░░░░░░ outbreak is driven by ░░░░░░░░ in society they are ░░░░░░░░ ones who toss it ░░░░░░░░ between the generations and ░░░░░░░░ does not hurt children ░░░░░░░░ much they don t ░░░░░░░░ any symptoms and they ░░░░░░░░ not very infectious so ░░░░░░░░ there are logical differences ░░░░░░░░ see when when talking ░░░░░░░░ all people like you ░░░░░░░░ I suppose two children ░░░░░░░░ lot of people will ░░░░░░░░ that young people have ░░░░░░░░ dying of covered 19 ░░░░░░░░ there are examples of ░░░░░░░░ people and some of ░░░░░░░░ day droughts of America ░░░░░░░░ that a large degree ░░░░░░░░ large number of hospitalizations ░░░░░░░░ among younger people and ░░░░░░░░ it responsible to describe ░░░░░░░░ as just a disease ░░░░░░░░ elderly people no but ░░░░░░░░ grounds like heals people ░░░░░░░░ don t know that ░░░░░░░░ and it much more ░░░░░░░░ more headlines right now ░░░░░░░░ if you look at ░░░░░░░░ data I mean the ░░░░░░░░ under 50 or a ░░░░░░░░ clear minority of all ░░░░░░░░ cases so if I ░░░░░░░░ I m 38 I ░░░░░░░░ on the sort of ░░░░░░░░ between young and old ░░░░░░░░ if you re younger ░░░░░░░░ me what is your ░░░░░░░░ to young people I ░░░░░░░░ should they be campaigning ░░░░░░░░ have the lockdown with ░░░░░░░░ because it s inappropriate ░░░░░░░░ is what are other ░░░░░░░░ for young people and ░░░░░░░░ re told that it ░░░░░░░░ about carrying the disease ░░░░░░░░ other people and they ░░░░░░░░ as spreaders even though ░░░░░░░░ re not vulnerable themselves ░░░░░░░░ should we be doing ░░░░░░░░ younger people no I ░░░░░░░░ it s good thing ░░░░░░░░ do no they won ░░░░░░░░ hurt that much I ░░░░░░░░ you can t say ░░░░░░░░ it s completely without ░░░░░░░░ what you would say ░░░░░░░░ it but it s ░░░░░░░░ completely safe I mean ░░░░░░░░ will be young people ░░░░░░░░ die but for the ░░░░░░░░ it s but what ░░░░░░░░ said is correct that ░░░░░░░░ should think about protecting ░░░░░░░░ people that s important ░░░░░░░░ they move around a ░░░░░░░░ then they shouldn t ░░░░░░░░ the grandmother and grandfather ░░░░░░░░ much and until they ░░░░░░░░ had it themselves yeah ░░░░░░░░ I m just trying ░░░░░░░░ guess that s done ░░░░░░░░ re nearing time now ░░░░░░░░ just want to get ░░░░░░░░ sense what should the ░░░░░░░░ government do now in ░░░░░░░░ opinion did we should ░░░░░░░░ okay lockdown is cancels ░░░░░░░░ you can t do ░░░░░░░░ then you have wave ░░░░░░░░ all cases then you ░░░░░░░░ have a peak one ░░░░░░░░ two weeks later if ░░░░░░░░ took away all the ░░░░░░░░ now you ll have ░░░░░░░░ climb down one that ░░░░░░░░ rung of the ladder ░░░░░░░░ the time and probably ░░░░░░░░ with the school closures ░░░░░░░░ it s a good ░░░░░░░░ it makes society I ░░░░░░░░ in this country Sweden ░░░░░░░░ have 1 million people ░░░░░░░░ run between 0 and ░░░░░░░░ they need to be ░░░░░░░░ after if the not ░░░░░░░░ school that someone has ░░░░░░░░ stay at home with ░░░░░░░░ and one of my ░░░░░░░░ is a nurse and ░░░░░░░░ of an emergency room ░░░░░░░░ emergency ward here in ░░░░░░░░ she prays every morning ░░░░░░░░ she wakes up that ░░░░░░░░ government will not close ░░░░░░░░ School because then she ░░░░░░░░ our office tough so ░░░░░░░░ closure is one thing ░░░░░░░░ I think one step ░░░░░░░░ to be taken at ░░░░░░░░ time and it s ░░░░░░░░ how the countries in ░░░░░░░░ are sort of after ░░░░░░░░ approaching the Swedish policy ░░░░░░░░ they re opening up ░░░░░░░░ in all the Nordic ░░░░░░░░ in Austria you can ░░░░░░░░ in a job that ░░░░░░░░ more than 400 square ░░░░░░░░ in Germany that one ░░░░░░░░ the same thing on ░░░░░░░░ in Germany they were ░░░░░░░░ thinking about opening the ░░░░░░░░ again so countries are ░░░░░░░░ the Swedish but they ░░░░░░░░ a lockdown first so ░░░░░░░░ don t think is ░░░░░░░░ there s two other ░░░░░░░░ s two things that ░░░░░░░░ get very hopeful about ░░░░░░░░ is a vaccine and ░░░░░░░░ somewhere we can suppress ░░░░░░░░ disease completely into the ░░░░░░░░ comes is that is ░░░░░░░░ a feasible strength we ░░░░░░░░ take too long it ░░░░░░░░ t work in a ░░░░░░░░ and one other idea ░░░░░░░░ these so called immunity ░░░░░░░░ or the people who ░░░░░░░░ proven to have had ░░░░░░░░ disease they could then ░░░░░░░░ a wristband or something ░░░░░░░░ and they would then ░░░░░░░░ allowed back into Jobs ░░░░░░░░ in full society is ░░░░░░░░ a feasible strategy in ░░░░░░░░ view there are some ░░░░░░░░ problems with like you ░░░░░░░░ the antibody tests are ░░░░░░░░ that perfect yet so ░░░░░░░░ will be but it ░░░░░░░░ it s not a ░░░░░░░░ idea do you need ░░░░░░░░ passport you tell your ░░░░░░░░ at work that I ░░░░░░░░ immune maybe he wants ░░░░░░░░ see a paper nobody ░░░░░░░░ mean that s the ░░░░░░░░ it will work that ░░░░░░░░ find people are immune ░░░░░░░░ they can go back ░░░░░░░░ you can work in ░░░░░░░░ house but without all ░░░░░░░░ spacesuit on things like ░░░░░░░░ that be part of ░░░░░░░░ Swedish strategy yeah yeah ░░░░░░░░ in terms of what ░░░░░░░░ next then in Sweden ░░░░░░░░ know there s a ░░░░░░░░ amount of pressure a ░░░░░░░░ of people are looking ░░░░░░░░ prove that it was ░░░░░░░░ mistake in some way ░░░░░░░░ do you think the ░░░░░░░░ strategy will just stay ░░░░░░░░ it has been I ░░░░░░░░ t think it will ░░░░░░░░ tougher no we re ░░░░░░░░ now about opening the ░░░░░░░░ year of schooling so ░░░░░░░░ people who spent 12 ░░░░░░░░ in school can celebrate ░░░░░░░░ is a big thing ░░░░░░░░ this country it s ░░░░░░░░ because of the celebration ░░░░░░░░ being done but it ░░░░░░░░ to see that those ░░░░░░░░ finish school get grades ░░░░░░░░ finish all the tests ░░░░░░░░ have to take in ░░░░░░░░ like that and and ░░░░░░░░ so the the you ░░░░░░░░ feel like the curve ░░░░░░░░ improving sufficiently in Sweden ░░░░░░░░ start releasing further the ░░░░░░░░ measures yes and how ░░░░░░░░ how did that happen ░░░░░░░░ a lockdown well what ░░░░░░░░ just by voluntary social ░░░░░░░░ has already achieved that ░░░░░░░░ believe mm hmm and ░░░░░░░░ are some maybe we ░░░░░░░░ finish this now but ░░░░░░░░ it s not a ░░░░░░░░ what do you call ░░░░░░░░ minor low in it ░░░░░░░░ s an ordinance that ░░░░░░░░ something that not as ░░░░░░░░ as a law but ░░░░░░░░ yeah restaurants the rule ░░░░░░░░ you can only eat ░░░░░░░░ down the food should ░░░░░░░░ hot and served at ░░░░░░░░ table you don t ░░░░░░░░ out you can t ░░░░░░░░ up drinking if you ░░░░░░░░ your beer you have ░░░░░░░░ sit down at the ░░░░░░░░ which is five feet ░░░░░░░░ from the nearest table ░░░░░░░░ and that s being ░░░░░░░░ now so that but ░░░░░░░░ s not the government ░░░░░░░░ the local medical offices ░░░░░░░░ health that go out ░░░░░░░░ check restaurants and when ░░░░░░░░ close two or three ░░░░░░░░ because the tables are ░░░░░░░░ close or people are ░░░░░░░░ at the bar the ░░░░░░░░ follows you you don ░░░░░░░░ need a low for ░░░░░░░░ they know that if ░░░░░░░░ MOH the many medical ░░░░░░░░ of health comes in ░░░░░░░░ re closed for business ░░░░░░░░ do we get past ░░░░░░░░ when can we just ░░░░░░░░ to normal there and ░░░░░░░░ social distancing at all ░░░░░░░░ will be the metric ░░░░░░░░ making that decision good ░░░░░░░░ I m not quite ░░░░░░░░ I can answer that ░░░░░░░░ food but it will ░░░░░░░░ a couple of months ░░░░░░░░ climb down from a ░░░░░░░░ you can t climb ░░░░░░░░ from a look down ░░░░░░░░ don t know okay ░░░░░░░░ you so much for ░░░░░░░░ time that was fascinating ░░░░░░░░ you and we an ░░░░░░░░ different perspective there and ░░░░░░░░ will definitely be in ░░░░░░░░ in one year from ░░░░░░░░ but hopefully we will ░░░░░░░░ a chance to talk ░░░░░░░░ you before that okay ░░░░░░░░ you thank you so ░░░░░░░░ you have it you ░░░░░░░░ been watching lockdown TV ░░░░░░░░ unheard that was Professor ░░░░░░░░ honkey secure from Sweden ░░░░░░░░ former state epidemiologist adviser ░░░░░░░░ the World Health Organization ░░░░░░░░ believes that the lockdown ░░░░░░░░ across Europe and in ░░░░░░░░ United Kingdom were the ░░░░░░░░ policy and that we ░░░░░░░░ going to find it ░░░░░░░░ difficult to reverse out ░░░░░░░░ so that is a ░░░░░░░░ perspective thanks for tuning ░░░░░░░░ and we will be ░░░░░░░░ next week you