[Music good morning and ░░░░░░░░ to the gold coats ░░░░░░░░ guns podcast my name ░░░░░░░░ Tom Luongo it is ░░░░░░░░ May 9th 2019 I ░░░░░░░░ here this morning with ░░░░░░░░ very good friend of ░░░░░░░░ goats and guns David ░░░░░░░░ former OMB director under ░░░░░░░░ Ronald Reagan published author ░░░░░░░░ author publisher of contra ░░░░░░░░ and all around great ░░░░░░░░ gadfly it s a ░░░░░░░░ pleasure to have him ░░░░░░░░ the show this morning ░░░░░░░░ I really appreciate David ░░░░░░░░ on his latest book ░░░░░░░░ Trump the undrained bull ░░░░░░░░ and the fantasy of ░░░░░░░░ is in stores now ░░░░░░░░ will be a link ░░░░░░░░ the description to this ░░░░░░░░ show down below for ░░░░░░░░ to to to get ░░░░░░░░ copy of it I ░░░░░░░░ read it it s ░░░░░░░░ very good so I ░░░░░░░░ like to welcome David ░░░░░░░░ the show David thank ░░░░░░░░ so much for doing ░░░░░░░░ to the strong taking ░░░░░░░░ out this morning to ░░░░░░░░ this many of the ░░░░░░░░ that I addressed in ░░░░░░░░ Trump seemed to be ░░░░░░░░ as we speak we ░░░░░░░░ to talk about I ░░░░░░░░ completely the I d ░░░░░░░░ to start with that ░░░░░░░░ s start with the ░░░░░░░░ behind Pete Trump if ░░░░░░░░ just talk about that ░░░░░░░░ a few minutes to ░░░░░░░░ everybody know where we ░░░░░░░░ are cuz you yeah ░░░░░░░░ ve used your thesis ░░░░░░░░ I read the book ░░░░░░░░ in the year in ░░░░░░░░ of my my posts ░░░░░░░░ a lot of my ░░░░░░░░ already understands some of ░░░░░░░░ bill let s just ░░░░░░░░ through all of it ░░░░░░░░ that we can use ░░░░░░░░ as a jumping off ░░░░░░░░ to talk about current ░░░░░░░░ if you wouldn t ░░░░░░░░ sure what the thesis ░░░░░░░░ that Trump inherited a ░░░░░░░░ economy a reflection of ░░░░░░░░ years of bad policy ░░░░░░░░ driven by what I ░░░░░░░░ monetary central planning the ░░░░░░░░ that was accompanied by ░░░░░░░░ he even called a ░░░░░░░░ big fat ugly bubble ░░░░░░░░ the campaign and yeah ░░░░░░░░ got into office and ░░░░░░░░ what I consider an ░░░░░░░░ just rookie mistake of ░░░░░░░░ and embracing he gotta ░░░░░░░░ that he ran against ░░░░░░░░ the bubble that he ░░░░░░░░ about and we re ░░░░░░░░ in a phase of ░░░░░░░░ where I think he ░░░░░░░░ about ready to take ░░░░░░░░ huge fall so that ░░░░░░░░ the fundamental thesis that ░░░░░░░░ is no trunk boom ░░░░░░░░ was just coasting on ░░░░░░░░ last year or two ░░░░░░░░ few quarters of a ░░░░░░░░ cycle expansion that s ░░░░░░░░ underway for 118 months ░░░░░░░░ it has been it ░░░░░░░░ now the second longest ░░░░░░░░ history and it has ░░░░░░░░ a huge amount of ░░░░░░░░ problems and on Main ░░░░░░░░ and enormous speculation and ░░░░░░░░ on Wall Street that ░░░░░░░░ simply waiting for the ░░░░░░░░ or the Black Swan ░░░░░░░░ the orange one the ░░░░░░░░ may be to bring ░░░░░░░░ whole thing tumbling down ░░░░░░░░ is not prepared for ░░░░░░░░ his constituency isn t ░░░░░░░░ for that he was ░░░░░░░░ for a good reason ░░░░░░░░ that is establishment policy ░░░░░░░░ home and abroad is ░░░░░░░░ he said that he ░░░░░░░░ fight for our position ░░░░░░░░ America first he s ░░░░░░░░ up being co opted ░░░░░░░░ advisors and staff who ░░░░░░░░ devotees lifelong players in ░░░░░░░░ Empire first policy that ░░░░░░░░ actually have he understood ░░░░░░░░ fly over America domestically ░░░░░░░░ left behind that we ░░░░░░░░ kind of a phony ░░░░░░░░ but he s done ░░░░░░░░ nothing to address the ░░░░░░░░ cost in fact he ░░░░░░░░ actually insisted on doubling ░░░░░░░░ on easy money and ░░░░░░░░ interest rates and financial ░░░░░░░░ at the Fed when ░░░░░░░░ s the underlying cause ░░░░░░░░ the problem he is ░░░░░░░░ that our trade accounts ░░░░░░░░ way way out of ░░░░░░░░ it s absurd the ░░░░░░░░ have a 950 billion ░░░░░░░░ trade deficit with the ░░░░░░░░ or 450 billion plus ░░░░░░░░ minus with China but ░░░░░░░░ point that he fails ░░░░░░░░ understand that we address ░░░░░░░░ some length in the ░░░░░░░░ is that this isn ░░░░░░░░ the result of bad ░░░░░░░░ deals or dumb people ░░░░░░░░ the Oval Office and ░░░░░░░░ snookered by foreign countries ░░░░░░░░ negotiators it s a ░░░░░░░░ of bad money in ░░░░░░░░ our domestic cost wage ░░░░░░░░ price structure at a ░░░░░░░░ or better rate year ░░░░░░░░ and year out at ░░░░░░░░ time when we needed ░░░░░░░░ have deflation not inflation ░░░░░░░░ order to remain competitive ░░░░░░░░ the global economy and ░░░░░░░░ Jobs of production and ░░░░░░░░ here so in other ░░░░░░░░ the Trump was elected ░░░░░░░░ kind of a fluke ░░░░░░░░ history desperate protests particularly ░░░░░░░░ the Rust Belt counties ░░░░░░░░ a few states where ░░░░░░░░ you know picked up ░░░░░░░░ electoral votes and Pennsylvania ░░░░░░░░ and Wisconsin on the ░░░░░░░░ in Rust Belt counties ░░░░░░░░ those three states where ░░░░░░░░ won the Electoral College ░░░░░░░░ the election he won ░░░░░░░░ 90 thousand votes in ░░░░░░░░ out of 13 million ░░░░░░░░ so this really was ░░░░░░░░ look but unfortunately he ░░░░░░░░ a protest candidate a ░░░░░░░░ who had no agenda ░░░░░░░░ program no inkling of ░░░░░░░░ needed to be done ░░░░░░░░ address the underlying symptoms ░░░░░░░░ problems that his candidacy ░░░░░░░░ with out and what ░░░░░░░░ thought flyover America so ░░░░░░░░ re now at a ░░░░░░░░ where he s gone ░░░░░░░░ the deep end driving ░░░░░░░░ federal deficit to unimaginable ░░░░░░░░ at the end of ░░░░░░░░ long long business expansion ░░░░░░░░ can imagine where we ░░░░░░░░ be when the economy ░░░░░░░░ rolls over into recession ░░░░░░░░ revenues really collapse he ░░░░░░░░ got a trade war ░░░░░░░░ not just with China ░░░░░░░░ around the corner we ░░░░░░░░ about ready to have ░░░░░░░░ security tariffs on BMWs ░░░░░░░░ in from Germany you ░░░░░░░░ how they re how ░░░░░░░░ is the threat to ░░░░░░░░ and safety people in ░░░░░░░░ Nebraska it s kind ░░░░░░░░ hard for me to ░░░░░░░░ but that s coming ░░░░░░░░ the pike because he ░░░░░░░░ misunderstands the problem that ░░░░░░░░ correctly has identified and ░░░░░░░░ attempting the kind of ░░░░░░░░ of the deal trade ░░░░░░░░ trade war that threatens ░░░░░░░░ blow up the entire ░░░░░░░░ know economic system if ░░░░░░░░ continues much longer that ░░░░░░░░ where we are this ░░░░░░░░ that s where we ░░░░░░░░ be these the 25 ░░░░░░░░ goes on with China ░░░░░░░░ it I think has ░░░░░░░░ potential to really be ░░░░░░░░ know the pin the ░░░░░░░░ Swan that serves things ░░░░░░░░ south in a pretty ░░░░░░░░ and dangerous direction I ░░░░░░░░ could not agree more ░░░░░░░░ the what s fascinating ░░░░░░░░ me at this point ░░░░░░░░ as a matter of ░░░░░░░░ I m like was ░░░░░░░░ on a blog post ░░░░░░░░ morning to talk about ░░░░░░░░ exact thing because last ░░░░░░░░ I actually wrote an ░░░░░░░░ called will Trump sacrifice ░░░░░░░░ global economy on the ░░░░░░░░ of his vanity and ░░░░░░░░ you look at what ░░░░░░░░ been happening over the ░░░░░░░░ of the past week ░░░░░░░░ s pretty obvious that ░░░░░░░░ is reacting AB reacting ░░░░░░░░ think to the China ░░░░░░░░ to give him what ░░░░░░░░ wants in a trade ░░░░░░░░ he want you know ░░░░░░░░ these things that are ░░░░░░░░ effect real challenges to ░░░░░░░░ authority he s he ░░░░░░░░ overreacting to the bay ░░░░░░░░ fat pigs that called ░░░░░░░░ down in Venezuela he ░░░░░░░░ t he he doesn ░░░░░░░░ know what to do ░░░░░░░░ he doesn t have ░░░░░░░░ good options I ve ░░░░░░░░ saying from the beginning ░░░░░░░░ he has no leverage ░░░░░░░░ with China in the ░░░░░░░░ talks because of what ░░░░░░░░ just talked about because ░░░░░░░░ the general thesis which ░░░░░░░░ that the fundamental problems ░░░░░░░░ the economy here in ░░░░░░░░ United States are structural ░░░░░░░░ you know you run ░░░░░░░░ you know if did ░░░░░░░░ wants to understand why ░░░░░░░░ have continued to have ░░░░░░░░ a massive trade deficit ░░░░░░░░ you stop spending a ░░░░░░░░ dollars more than you ░░░░░░░░ in yeah you know ░░░░░░░░ those dollars go into ░░░░░░░░ general economy and they ░░░░░░░░ spent here in the ░░░░░░░░ States and what do ░░░░░░░░ what do we do ░░░░░░░░ them we go and ░░░░░░░░ buy TVs and computers ░░░░░░░░ iPhones and and stuff ░░░░░░░░ China yeah that s ░░░░░░░░ we do with the ░░░░░░░░ it s not like ░░░░░░░░ s it s not ░░░░░░░░ know and it s ░░░░░░░░ nothing he s done ░░░░░░░░ wise is going to ░░░░░░░░ domestic production back here ░░░░░░░░ the other thing I ░░░░░░░░ to ask him and ░░░░░░░░ ask every I was ░░░░░░░░ about this yesterday on ░░░░░░░░ live stream I said ░░░░░░░░ do we want the ░░░░░░░░ skilled manufacturing Jobs back ░░░░░░░░ in the United States ░░░░░░░░ mean I don t ░░░░░░░░ don t why would ░░░░░░░░ blow up the world ░░░░░░░░ for this it s ░░░░░░░░ s one thing of ░░░░░░░░ to blow up you ░░░░░░░░ part of you know ░░░░░░░░ try and rebalance things ░░░░░░░░ he s got half ░░░░░░░░ problem right or have ░░░░░░░░ problem solved cut corporate ░░░░░░░░ rates cuts no small ░░░░░░░░ tax rates and all ░░░░░░░░ but the other side ░░░░░░░░ it is that the ░░░░░░░░ the general tariff rate ░░░░░░░░ so low that it ░░░░░░░░ t matter there s ░░░░░░░░ there you know there ░░░░░░░░ no there s no ░░░░░░░░ to trade here and ░░░░░░░░ just seems completely insane ░░░░░░░░ me so when our ░░░░░░░░ we re now going ░░░░░░░░ start an entire war ░░░░░░░░ everybody around the world ░░░░░░░░ we ll listen you ░░░░░░░░ hitting a lot of ░░░░░░░░ points on the head ░░░░░░░░ wound there s a ░░░░░░░░ vacuum of facts here ░░░░░░░░ we can talk about ░░░░░░░░ couple of those and ░░░░░░░░ despite his best intention ░░░░░░░░ we have achenes again ░░░░░░░░ again of Trump being ░░░░░░░░ by people who have ░░░░░░░░ totally different agenda not ░░░░░░░░ to the facts you ░░░░░░░░ the average tariff on ░░░░░░░░ coming into the United ░░░░░░░░ today is less than ░░░░░░░░ percent that s one ░░░░░░░░ seven percent twenties one ░░░░░░░░ eight percent even China ░░░░░░░░ three percent and if ░░░░░░░░ look at charts that ░░░░░░░░ back two or three ░░░░░░░░ four decades tariff levels ░░░░░░░░ around the world have ░░░░░░░░ coming down steadily until ░░░░░░░░ ve reached the de ░░░░░░░░ level so that isn ░░░░░░░░ that isn t the ░░░░░░░░ secondly the Trump is ░░░░░░░░ focused on these giant ░░░░░░░░ and worldwide trade deficits ░░░░░░░░ his advisors are if ░░░░░░░░ look at what light ░░░░░░░░ is after it was ░░░░░░░░ life long K Street ░░░░░░░░ swamp Weller if there ░░░░░░░░ was one or the ░░░░░░░░ among Navarro s kind ░░░░░░░░ a crazy man neocon ░░░░░░░░ Chinese militant there what ░░░░░░░░ they re pursuing and ░░░░░░░░ negotiations have nothing to ░░░░░░░░ with bringing back the ░░░░░░░░ of Jobs that probably ░░░░░░░░ migrated offshore due to ░░░░░░░░ and and monetary policy ░░░░░░░░ instance they re you ░░░░░░░░ one of the big ░░░░░░░░ is if you go ░░░░░░░░ China yet though you ░░░░░░░░ to be in a ░░░░░░░░ venture and you apparently ░░░░░░░░ pressured sometimes to transfer ░░░░░░░░ well fine if you ░░░░░░░░ t have to go ░░░░░░░░ China it s not ░░░░░░░░ job of the United ░░░░░░░░ government to need the ░░░░░░░░ mani for every company ░░░░░░░░ s domicile you know ░░░░░░░░ the Pacific in the ░░░░░░░░ who wants to go ░░░░░░░░ China in order to ░░░░░░░░ in the growth and ░░░░░░░░ on CNBC and then ░░░░░░░░ about their China operations ░░░░░░░░ why they should have ░░░░░░░░ higher multiple and higher ░░░░░░░░ price if they want ░░░░░░░░ do that fine if ░░░░░░░░ cost of doing that ░░░░░░░░ sharing some technology they ░░░░░░░░ to make the business ░░░░░░░░ on the cost benefit ░░░░░░░░ so doing but what ░░░░░░░░ we doing here we ░░░░░░░░ putting you know at ░░░░░░░░ today at a Thursday ░░░░░░░░ re putting 52 and ░░░░░░░░ half billion dollars cost ░░░░░░░░ 250 billion of goods ░░░░░░░░ in from China that ░░░░░░░░ going to hit hard ░░░░░░░░ at Walmart his voters ░░░░░░░░ small businesses who buy ░░░░░░░░ and semi fabricated parts ░░░░░░░░ China to finish you ░░░░░░░░ the manufacturing and sale ░░░░░░░░ that they re all ░░░░░░░░ to be hit with ░░░░░░░░ or in the end ░░░░░░░░ lot of us importers ░░░░░░░░ resource their supply to ░░░░░░░░ same Vietnam or Indonesia ░░░░░░░░ India and I call ░░░░░░░░ the greatest inadvertent foreign ░░░░░░░░ policy that s ever ░░░░░░░░ along it s going ░░░░░░░░ get more work and ░░░░░░░░ s not going to ░░░░░░░░ any Jobs to China ░░░░░░░░ I ve gone through ░░░░░░░░ lot of the data ░░░░░░░░ having someone like gloss ░░░░░░░░ you know if you ░░░░░░░░ you put a heavy ░░░░░░░░ 25 percent on low ░░░░░░░░ intensive low cost Goods ░░░░░░░░ out of China you ░░░░░░░░ not gonna bring him ░░░░░░░░ to the United States ░░░░░░░░ re just gonna shift ░░░░░░░░ sourcing to the next ░░░░░░░░ cost supplier on the ░░░░░░░░ labor cost curve which ░░░░░░░░ be Vietnam or it ░░░░░░░░ be payload a sure ░░░░░░░░ will be Mexico and ░░░░░░░░ have you accomplished you ░░░░░░░░ stirred up the pie ░░░░░░░░ then in the process ░░░░░░░░ retaliation you know the ░░░░░░░░ are kind of crazy ░░░░░░░░ you look at the ░░░░░░░░ of trade balance with ░░░░░░░░ we bought five hundred ░░░░░░░░ three billion worth of ░░░░░░░░ from them we exported ░░░░░░░░ hundred and 20 billion ░░░░░░░░ know massive gap and ░░░░░░░░ as a result of ░░░░░░░░ he s doing you ░░░░░░░░ actually going to see ░░░░░░░░ against the you know ░░░░░░░░ exports that we have ░░░░░░░░ that will come back ░░░░░░░░ you know monkey hammer ░░░░░░░░ farmers in Ohio in ░░░░░░░░ and grain farmers in ░░░░░░░░ plains and so forth ░░░░░░░░ well as small business ░░░░░░░░ so this thing it ░░░░░░░░ really turning into a ░░░░░░░░ and it s in ░░░░░░░░ because he thinks he ░░░░░░░░ bringing Jobs back he ░░░░░░░░ that last night at ░░░░░░░░ speech in Florida he ░░░░░░░░ you know this won ░░░░░░░░ stand working not going ░░░░░░░░ let them steal our ░░░░░░░░ well that s a ░░░░░░░░ felon he if he ░░░░░░░░ to solve that problem ░░░░░░░░ s four blocks away ░░░░░░░░ the apples building right ░░░░░░░░ the corner for the ░░░░░░░░ House but you re ░░░░░░░░ going to bring Jobs ░░░░░░░░ by hammering the Chinese ░░░░░░░░ how they practice what ░░░░░░░░ call read capitalism in ░░░░░░░░ and that s what ░░░░░░░░ is all about this ░░░░░░░░ all about helping pastry ░░░░░░░░ and I call it ░░░░░░░░ welfare because that s ░░░░░░░░ what it is helping ░░░░░░░░ US companies again a ░░░░░░░░ deal when they go ░░░░░░░░ China to produce or ░░░░░░░░ or source or joint ░░░░░░░░ that that isn t ░░░░░░░░ know that statism when ░░░░░░░░ put the US government ░░░░░░░░ the middle of that ░░░░░░░░ and it s the ░░░░░░░░ why you know we ░░░░░░░░ all of the economic ░░░░░░░░ social problems we have ░░░░░░░░ too much government too ░░░░░░░░ state and in effect ░░░░░░░░ light hyzer and Trump ░░░░░░░░ team stand for is ░░░░░░░░ more state I call ░░░░░░░░ you know the big ░░░░░░░░ nanny in Washington which ░░░░░░░░ really feel swamped because ░░░░░░░░ of these mechanisms they ░░░░░░░░ talking about for enforcement ░░░░░░░░ for measuring progress and ░░░░░░░░ the rest of it ░░░░░░░░ will generate a you ░░░░░░░░ untold work for Washington ░░░░░░░░ representing companies between to ░░░░░░░░ their help in order ░░░░░░░░ navigate this Rube Goldberg ░░░░░░░░ regime that they re ░░░░░░░░ to create I kind ░░░░░░░░ hope it blows up ░░░░░░░░ mean it wouldn t ░░░░░░░░ a good thing in ░░░░░░░░ short run the market ░░░░░░░░ ll take a real ░░░░░░░░ but at least maybe ░░░░░░░░ will reveal if that ░░░░░░░░ if this breaks down ░░░░░░░░ for a limited period ░░░░░░░░ time that what s ░░░░░░░░ the table is not ░░░░░░░░ production Jobs and income ░░░░░░░░ to America what s ░░░░░░░░ the table is corporate ░░░░░░░░ and you know sort ░░░░░░░░ trade nanny ISM that ░░░░░░░░ t going to help ░░░░░░░░ at all and in ░░░░░░░░ process is risking a ░░░░░░░░ upset in the global ░░░░░░░░ and putting US consumers ░░░░░░░░ farmers and small businesses ░░░░░░░░ exporters in harm s ░░░░░░░░ it s crazy it ░░░░░░░░ crazy and from you ░░░░░░░░ when I was listening ░░░░░░░░ you talking to reminds ░░░░░░░░ that I one of ░░░░░░░░ fundamental problems with Trump ░░░░░░░░ he was running and ░░░░░░░░ and I said this ░░░░░░░░ the entire time was ░░░░░░░░ he s fundamentally an ░░░░░░░░ mercantilist and he s ░░░░░░░░ with China for running ░░░░░░░░ mercantilist policy for as ░░░░░░░░ years as they have ░░░░░░░░ the thing about it ░░░░░░░░ is that the reason ░░░░░░░░ ve been able to ░░░░░░░░ away with running such ░░░░░░░░ massive policy that way ░░░░░░░░ mercantilist policies because we ░░░░░░░░ allowed them to the ░░░░░░░░ as you rightly point ░░░░░░░░ the Fed has created ░░░░░░░░ N Wall Street and ░░░░░░░░ and the Congress by ░░░░░░░░ way beyond their means ░░░░░░░░ Quantitative Easing and all ░░░░░░░░ this stuff have created ░░░░░░░░ conditions for China to ░░░░░░░░ to continue running this ░░░░░░░░ I remember talking to ░░░░░░░░ friend of mine about ░░░░░░░░ listen he s like ░░░░░░░░ Chinese like the mercantilist ░░░░░░░░ should have ended a ░░░░░░░░ ago is it they ░░░░░░░░ going dude we ll ░░░░░░░░ keep taking your money ░░░░░░░░ this is what you ░░░░░░░░ to do um but ░░░░░░░░ can t believe they ░░░░░░░░ this dumb but okay ░░░░░░░░ this is what you ░░░░░░░░ to do we ll ░░░░░░░░ doing it and and ░░░░░░░░ now is just a ░░░░░░░░ politician who refuses to ░░░░░░░░ the actual problems in ░░░░░░░░ and I call mcalary ░░░░░░░░ a flat out coward ░░░░░░░░ knows what the real ░░░░░░░░ are but he like ░░░░░░░░ other politician no no ░░░░░░░░ s go blame the ░░░░░░░░ guy let s go ░░░░░░░░ them for stealing our ░░░░░░░░ and blame them for ░░░░░░░░ the real problems are ░░░░░░░░ he refuses to actually ░░░░░░░░ go after anything here ░░░░░░░░ home and worse than ░░░░░░░░ he s using this ░░░░░░░░ a pretext to achieve ░░░░░░░░ goals which are horrific ░░░░░░░░ I think all of ░░░░░░░░ stuff and this is ░░░░░░░░ is why I want ░░░░░░░░ try and transition away ░░░░░░░░ the domestic surface it ░░░░░░░░ the it s the ░░░░░░░░ stuff that s really ░░░░░░░░ important to me because ░░░░░░░░ s even more going ░░░░░░░░ than that which is ░░░░░░░░ as we watch the ░░░░░░░░ of this week play ░░░░░░░░ with the trade talks ░░░░░░░░ down with with the ░░░░░░░░ threatening Iran more sanctions ░░░░░░░░ oil waivers threatening Lebanon ░░░░░░░░ going to a rock ░░░░░░░░ try and shake them ░░░░░░░░ and all of this ░░░░░░░░ is in service of ░░░░░░░░ deal of the century ░░░░░░░░ Israel and Palestine his ░░░░░░░░ ly bad two state ░░░░░░░░ I don t know ░░░░░░░░ you saw that the ░░░░░░░░ version of the Kushner ░░░░░░░░ that the Israeli media ░░░░░░░░ out yesterday it s ░░░░░░░░ it s obvious that ░░░░░░░░ he s doing here ░░░░░░░░ he s trying to ░░░░░░░░ this through by doing ░░░░░░░░ Bolton thing of squeezing ░░░░░░░░ until the pipsqueak and ░░░░░░░░ hoping that that by ░░░░░░░░ in a surrender or ░░░░░░░░ mode that someone will ░░░░░░░░ surrender and none then ░░░░░░░░ one s surrendered to ░░░░░░░░ yet and they don ░░░░░░░░ realize that they re ░░░░░░░░ gonna that these people ░░░░░░░░ gonna eat dirt before ░░░░░░░░ ever surrender to people ░░░░░░░░ light Heiser Bolton Pompeo ░░░░░░░░ Trump these guys are ░░░░░░░░ they won t they ░░░░░░░░ t submit to the ░░░░░░░░ EU for Christ s ░░░░░░░░ and Angela Merkel s ░░░░░░░░ times the negotiator the ░░░░░░░░ is that s the ░░░░░░░░ that he considers himself ░░░░░░░░ great deal maker negotiator ░░░░░░░░ actually he s pretty ░░░░░░░░ because he s so ░░░░░░░░ so glad he s ░░░░░░░░ unfocused he s so ░░░░░░░░ that anything that seems ░░░░░░░░ slight his ego at ░░░░░░░░ moment he lurches off ░░░░░░░░ and that s the ░░░░░░░░ thing you can do ░░░░░░░░ you re playing some ░░░░░░░░ of long game in ░░░░░░░░ 3d chess and all ░░░░░░░░ rest they give him ░░░░░░░░ for none of this ░░░░░░░░ of that credit should ░░░░░░░░ given because he s ░░░░░░░░ around by the seat ░░░░░░░░ his pants making it ░░░░░░░░ as he goes along ░░░░░░░░ in ways that I ░░░░░░░░ are not rational or ░░░░░░░░ but simply glandular but ░░░░░░░░ worst thing is all ░░░░░░░░ his good instincts you ░░░░░░░░ I voted for him ░░░░░░░░ a lot of reasons ░░░░░░░░ wasn t gonna vote ░░░░░░░░ Hillary but I voted ░░░░░░░░ him because he sounded ░░░░░░░░ he was saying we ░░░░░░░░ gonna withdraw this global ░░░░░░░░ we re gonna reel ░░░░░░░░ our role in the ░░░░░░░░ regime change has failed ░░░░░░░░ re not going to ░░░░░░░░ it we re footing ░░░░░░░░ bill with a which ░░░░░░░░ then a six hundred ░░░░░░░░ billion dollar defense position ░░░░░░░░ is even bigger now ░░░░░░░░ the rest of the ░░░░░░░░ we re not going ░░░░░░░░ do it there s ░░░░░░░░ reason to be in ░░░░░░░░ head knocking contest with ░░░░░░░░ and Russia Cold War ░░░░░░░░ 0 I think I ░░░░░░░░ you know pursue rapprochement ░░░░░░░░ all of these things ░░░░░░░░ was somewhat inchoate it ░░░░░░░░ somewhat crude and primitive ░░░░░░░░ at least directionally it ░░░░░░░░ America first not Empire ░░░░░░░░ and yet he gets ░░░░░░░░ office in the key ░░░░░░░░ which people don t ░░░░░░░░ to talk about but ░░░░░░░░ key point is that ░░░░░░░░ funnel into the White ░░░░░░░░ and into his brain ░░░░░░░░ know whatever is under ░░░░░░░░ great big orange mop ░░░░░░░░ through Jared Kushner and ░░░░░░░░ whole neocon Branch office ░░░░░░░░ Washington and its relationship ░░░░░░░░ the neo con Branch ░░░░░░░░ in Israel and so ░░░░░░░░ s how you got ░░░░░░░░ who under the 80 ░░░░░░░░ the opposite of what ░░░░░░░░ talked about in the ░░░░░░░░ and what I think ░░░░░░░░ still thinks Pompeo balding ░░░░░░░░ know this what s ░░░░░░░░ name Abrams I mean ░░░░░░░░ could go on and ░░░░░░░░ he surrounded himself by ░░░░░░░░ who want to nullify ░░░░░░░░ foreign policy and so ░░░░░░░░ effect it is being ░░░░░░░░ that s how we ░░░░░░░░ into this mess with ░░░░░░░░ Iranians which we shouldn ░░░░░░░░ be in today I ░░░░░░░░ the idea that we ░░░░░░░░ saying to a sovereign ░░░░░░░░ that hasn t invaded ░░░░░░░░ who has only sent ░░░░░░░░ amounts of aid or ░░░░░░░░ personnel of the countries ░░░░░░░░ they ve been invited ░░░░░░░░ unlike the United States ░░░░░░░░ were a hundred countries ░░░░░░░░ they ve invaded quite ░░░░░░░░ few but we weren ░░░░░░░░ invited nevertheless opened up ░░░░░░░░ economic war with the ░░░░░░░░ to the point that ░░░░░░░░ re saying every last ░░░░░░░░ of oil down to ░░░░░░░░ last barrel and gallon ░░░░░░░░ going to be driven ░░░░░░░░ of the world market ░░░░░░░░ you know what kind ░░░░░░░░ imperial arrogance underlies that ░░░░░░░░ it s the opposite ░░░░░░░░ America first it s ░░░░░░░░ opposite of protecting the ░░░░░░░░ that s sort of ░░░░░░░░ the empire to the ░░░░░░░░ degree I focus on ░░░░░░░░ one but you know ░░░░░░░░ Venezuela situation is the ░░░░░░░░ exactly the same thing ░░░░░░░░ it s the same ░░░░░░░░ of characters who look ░░░░░░░░ him and also you ░░░░░░░░ a subtext in the ░░░░░░░░ China trade negotiations coming ░░░░░░░░ the neo cons around ░░░░░░░░ that have you know ░░░░░░░░ to demonize China and ░░░░░░░░ you know the next ░░░░░░░░ threat so that we ░░░░░░░░ keep you know 750 ░░░░░░░░ dollars a year flowing ░░░░░░░░ DoD and really it ░░░░░░░░ eight or nine hundred ░░░░░░░░ if you count everything ░░░░░░░░ in fact I say ░░░░░░░░ s a trillion dollar ░░░░░░░░ State because you know ░░░░░░░░ of all these stupid ░░░░░░░░ that we ve had ░░░░░░░░ coming to productive Wars ░░░░░░░░ all the way back ░░░░░░░░ Vietnam we ve got ░░░░░░░░ two hundred billion dollar ░░░░░░░░ year veterans budget to ░░░░░░░░ care of people it ░░░░░░░░ up without incomes or ░░░░░░░░ human lifetime health problems ░░░░░░░░ of a misguided foreign ░░░░░░░░ so you got a ░░░░░░░░ dollars worth of money ░░░░░░░░ risk at stake in ░░░░░░░░ Imperial City is I ░░░░░░░░ to call Washington and ░░░░░░░░ money speaks it drives ░░░░░░░░ itself selects the person ░░░░░░░░ of the personnel and ░░░░░░░░ know despite his best ░░░░░░░░ as an outsider not ░░░░░░░░ up in decades of ░░░░░░░░ he s been taken ░░░░░░░░ by by the apparatus ░░░░░░░░ the deep state he ░░░░░░░░ that drain any swamp ░░░░░░░░ s why I have ░░░░░░░░ the cover of my ░░░░░░░░ all the swamp creatures ░░░░░░░░ off the top to ░░░░░░░░ White House roof you ░░░░░░░░ he s surrounded by ░░░░░░░░ it is crazy and ░░░░░░░░ s funny it s ░░░░░░░░ s actually worse than ░░░░░░░░ ever imagined I voted ░░░░░░░░ him for the exact ░░░░░░░░ reasons you did and ░░░░░░░░ went one step further ░░░░░░░░ was the first one ░░░░░░░░ actually challenge Israeli orthodoxy ░░░░░░░░ a foreign policy thing ░░░░░░░░ on to differentiate themselves ░░░░░░░░ all the other crazy ░░░░░░░░ cons were running for ░░░░░░░░ that pointers at that ░░░░░░░░ we were looking at ░░░░░░░░ know the typical cast ░░░░░░░░ characters to be you ░░░░░░░░ losers to Hillary to ░░░░░░░░ Hillary who is the ░░░░░░░░ neocon and despite her ░░░░░░░░ know protestations to the ░░░░░░░░ that and when I ░░░░░░░░ at what s at ░░░░░░░░ was happened here it ░░░░░░░░ very obvious that the ░░░░░░░░ thing everybody did was ░░░░░░░░ wall him off from ░░░░░░░░ real information friends of ░░░░░░░░ that I talked to ░░░░░░░░ the time say look ░░░░░░░░ guy the guy gets ░░░░░░░░ of his information from ░░░░░░░░ News if you want ░░░░░░░░ be a member of ░░░░░░░░ Trump Administration just going ░░░░░░░░ speak Fox News commentator ░░░░░░░░ m just waiting for ░░░░░░░░ you know for for ░░░░░░░░ lightweights like Dan bond ░░░░░░░░ to become why I ░░░░░░░░ t know you know ░░░░░░░░ Secretary of State next ░░░░░░░░ and then after somebody ░░░░░░░░ like finally defects from ░░░░░░░░ this this clown show ░░░░░░░░ it really has become ░░░░░░░░ clown show because and ░░░░░░░░ know that Putin is ░░░░░░░░ with him for all ░░░░░░░░ and purposes Oh Putin ░░░░░░░░ always take a phone ░░░░░░░░ because he has to ░░░░░░░░ but and I m ░░░░░░░░ the Israelis you know ░░░░░░░░ say all the time ░░░░░░░░ don t have any ░░░░░░░░ here of I just ░░░░░░░░ if I were Israel ░░░░░░░░ I were Netanyahu and ░░░░░░░░ had this guy in ░░░░░░░░ White House I would ░░░░░░░░ as much egregious advantage ░░░░░░░░ him as I possibly ░░░░░░░░ until because the generational ░░░░░░░░ and attitude towards Israel ░░░░░░░░ this is real here ░░░░░░░░ s it s it ░░░░░░░░ moving away from this ░░░░░░░░ support of Israel once ░░░░░░░░ baby boomers go away ░░░░░░░░ is a very this ░░░░░░░░ a theme of wine ░░░░░░░░ I touched on all ░░░░░░░░ time my generation Gen ░░░░░░░░ and the the modules ░░░░░░░░ them are not going ░░░░░░░░ stand for this they ░░░░░░░░ looking at they re ░░░░░░░░ at a life of ░░░░░░░░ slavery and and lower ░░░░░░░░ standards of living in ░░░░░░░░ rest of it and ░░░░░░░░ re not going to ░░░░░░░░ for this that we ░░░░░░░░ going to send this ░░░░░░░░ overseas and we re ░░░░░░░░ fight these wars and ░░░░░░░░ re going to do ░░░░░░░░ this stuff they re ░░░░░░░░ going you got to ░░░░░░░░ out of your mind ░░░░░░░░ you know looking at ░░░░░░░░ discussion or plan as ░░░░░░░░ of my subscribers said ░░░░░░░░ me this morning thanks ░░░░░░░░ you think thanks for ░░░░░░░░ alt right recruitment advertisement ░░░░░░░░ that s what he ░░░░░░░░ doing and he doesn ░░░░░░░░ and they don t ░░░░░░░░ it that if you ░░░░░░░░ this if you push ░░░░░░░░ hard that you re ░░░░░░░░ to get the kind ░░░░░░░░ abreaction that we ve ░░░░░░░░ in Politics it s ░░░░░░░░ problem with the Democrats ░░░░░░░░ pushed his Russian narrative ░░░░░░░░ anti Russian narrative so ░░░░░░░░ in order to get ░░░░░░░░ back into the box ░░░░░░░░ foreign policy orthodoxy which ░░░░░░░░ why I think it ░░░░░░░░ done ultimately it was ░░░░░░░░ get him out of ░░░░░░░░ or put him exactly ░░░░░░░░ he is now which ░░░░░░░░ that he has you ░░░░░░░░ he has some political ░░░░░░░░ left but he s ░░░░░░░░ neutered and surrounded by ░░░░░░░░ know the very worst ░░░░░░░░ in Washington you know ░░░░░░░░ guy who s who ░░░░░░░░ the happiest about all ░░░░░░░░ is like Bill Kristol ░░░░░░░░ know right a guy ░░░░░░░░ literally wept on television ░░░░░░░░ he was elected after ░░░░░░░░ was elected and now ░░░░░░░░ just crowing after he ░░░░░░░░ lost it he s ░░░░░░░░ everything but he s ░░░░░░░░ gonna he s still ░░░░░░░░ but they re still ░░░░░░░░ wind up winning and ░░░░░░░░ the really scary part ░░░░░░░░ this and this is ░░░░░░░░ I want to move ░░░░░░░░ next as we talked ░░░░░░░░ you know you talked ░░░░░░░░ the endless inflation the ░░░░░░░░ to clean and it ░░░░░░░░ still happening right I ░░░░░░░░ the Fed s balance ░░░░░░░░ every week and I ░░░░░░░░ at it and I ░░░░░░░░ watching the resort on ░░░░░░░░ absorbed reserves the banking ░░░░░░░░ falling and gross currency ░░░░░░░░ issuance rising as a ░░░░░░░░ is rapidly rising which ░░░░░░░░ uh which is incipient ░░░░░░░░ it s going to ░░░░░░░░ incipient hyperinflation when we ░░░░░░░░ the shift out of ░░░░░░░░ assets which is what ░░░░░░░░ coming next okay so ░░░░░░░░ general thesis David I ░░░░░░░░ you know you know ░░░░░░░░ not just to remind ░░░░░░░░ is that we re ░░░░░░░░ staring at a global ░░░░░░░░ collapse based on a ░░░░░░░░ dollar liquidity are falling ░░░░░░░░ liquidity which has already ░░░░░░░░ right Trump is running ░░░░░░░░ one point two trillion ░░░░░░░░ deficit the Fed has ░░░░░░░░ off a little bit ░░░░░░░░ 600 billion dollars with ░░░░░░░░ quantitative tightening but we ░░░░░░░░ seeing it in emerging ░░░░░░░░ emerging market currencies are ░░░░░░░░ up trumps going to ░░░░░░░░ a increase the tariff ░░░░░░░░ China China s going ░░░░░░░░ devalue the yuyuan in ░░░░░░░░ to keep pace with ░░░░░░░░ of their emerging market ░░░░░░░░ partners their real trade ░░░░░░░░ let s not kid ░░░░░░░░ and they re going ░░░░░░░░ continue to recycle whatever ░░░░░░░░ they can into belt ░░░░░░░░ Road initiative and it ░░░░░░░░ all go but that ░░░░░░░░ that is gonna try ░░░░░░░░ collapse and with nine ░░░░░░░░ dollars worth of non ░░░░░░░░ foreign corporate debt denominated ░░░░░░░░ dollars that has to ░░░░░░░░ paid in dollars of ░░░░░░░░ in dollars if you ░░░░░░░░ down global trade and ░░░░░░░░ morning s trade deficit ░░░░░░░░ are a perfect example ░░░░░░░░ trade with China year ░░░░░░░░ year a lot contracted ░░░░░░░░ percent right okay 15 ░░░░░░░░ means exports and imports ░░░░░░░░ still the trade deficit ░░░░░░░░ while the trade deficit ░░░░░░░░ overall trade with them ░░░░░░░░ by 15 percent that ░░░░░░░░ the global flow of ░░░░░░░░ is dropping like a ░░░░░░░░ and that s why ░░░░░░░░ Turkish Liras blowing up ░░░░░░░░ s why the Thai ░░░░░░░░ is going to blow ░░░░░░░░ that s why the ░░░░░░░░ is blowing up is ░░░░░░░░ s collapsing this is ░░░░░░░░ of these things and ░░░░░░░░ this starts to go ░░░░░░░░ first wave of this ░░░░░░░░ be a massive move ░░░░░░░░ the dollar that Trump ░░░░░░░░ the Fed can t ░░░░░░░░ Trump once a half ░░░░░░░░ or one point the ░░░░░░░░ cut because he s ░░░░░░░░ to UM trying to ░░░░░░░░ frackers from going bust ░░░░░░░░ in an Eagle Ford ░░░░░░░░ right but that s ░░░░░░░░ gonna that s not ░░░░░░░░ solve the problem when ░░░░░░░░ demand for oil drops ░░░░░░░░ a billion a million ░░░░░░░░ a day right and ░░░░░░░░ re pumping 15 million ░░░░░░░░ you re gonna sell ░░░░░░░░ what 25 a barrel ░░░░░░░░ could think they can ░░░░░░░░ sir point if 25 ░░░░░░░░ barrel so what will ░░░░░░░░ to but there will ░░░░░░░░ a massive rush into ░░░░░░░░ assets and why the ░░░░░░░░ market continues to levitate ░░░░░░░░ 20 seven thousand this ░░░░░░░░ our the Dow was ░░░░░░░░ knock it on 27 ░░░░░░░░ and US Treasury bonds ░░░░░░░░ we they can get ░░░░░░░░ with such low interest ░░░░░░░░ on your stressors but ░░░░░░░░ re reaching the end ░░░░░░░░ that doctor that was ░░░░░░░░ on yeah perfectly happened ░░░░░░░░ you saw the 10 ░░░░░░░░ option and for the ░░░░░░░░ was the worst auction ░░░░░░░░ 10 or 11 years ░░░░░░░░ in terms of the ░░░░░░░░ that the dealers had ░░░░░░░░ take it most of ░░░░░░░░ down because demand from ░░░░░░░░ domestic sources and international ░░░░░░░░ up quite rapidly absolutely ░░░░░░░░ so in that s ░░░░░░░░ a measure of things ░░░░░░░░ come and I have ░░░░░░░░ with you on what ░░░░░░░░ s called the dollars ░░░░░░░░ thesis and as world ░░░░░░░░ and trade shrink dramatically ░░░░░░░░ the face of all ░░░░░░░░ you know it s ░░░░░░░░ only the problem is ░░░░░░░░ going to intensify the ░░░░░░░░ that people don t ░░░░░░░░ is that when you ░░░░░░░░ for 10 years of ░░░░░░░░ aberrantly abnormal I just ░░░░░░░░ to say monetary policy ░░░░░░░░ interest rates that were ░░░░░░░░ negative in real terms ░░░░░░░░ April 208 to November ░░░░░░░░ in other words the ░░░░░░░░ fund rate funds rate ░░░░░░░░ under the running annual ░░░░░░░░ rate you are essentially ░░░░░░░░ a devil s workshop ░░░░░░░░ the global financial system ░░░░░░░░ people have no idea ░░░░░░░░ the mischief that s ░░░░░░░░ going on there the ░░░░░░░░ bets that are being ░░░░░░░░ we can see it ░░░░░░░░ you at the end ░░░░░░░░ the peak of the ░░░░░░░░ cycle I think it ░░░░░░░░ 400 or 500 billion ░░░░░░░░ of leveraged loans outstanding ░░░░░░░░ it s 1 3 ░░░░░░░░ I mean it s ░░░░░░░░ we re up 4x ░░░░░░░░ where it was last ░░░░░░░░ when we thought we ░░░░░░░░ a wake up call ░░░░░░░░ a near death experience ░░░░░░░░ the great financial crisis ░░░░░░░░ the thing that really ░░░░░░░░ think is more important ░░░░░░░░ anything else is a ░░░░░░░░ away is that there ░░░░░░░░ rot everywhere in the ░░░░░░░░ system unnatural mispricing of ░░░░░░░░ every financial asset there ░░░░░░░░ starting with a 10 ░░░░░░░░ Treasury which is the ░░░░░░░░ security in the whole ░░░░░░░░ system and then you ░░░░░░░░ going from there everything ░░░░░░░░ prices are from it ░░░░░░░░ a yield basis or ░░░░░░░░ you know cap rate ░░░░░░░░ or a yield spread ░░░░░░░░ cap rate basis or ░░░░░░░░ the case may be ░░░░░░░░ you know they don ░░░░░░░░ see a recession coming ░░░░░░░░ you ve had all ░░░░░░░░ statements from Powell and ░░░░░░░░ Yellen and all the ░░░░░░░░ of me it s ░░░░░░░░ fixed we don t ░░░░░░░░ any symptoms like 208 ░░░░░░░░ well they didn t ░░░░░░░░ those symptoms back then ░░░░░░░░ now they re just ░░░░░░░░ at the wrong one ░░░░░░░░ the banking system may ░░░░░░░░ in better shape but ░░░░░░░░ you have trillions of ░░░░░░░░ worth of ETFs that ░░░░░░░░ t exist you have ░░░░░░░░ of dollars worth of ░░░░░░░░ funds in those stocks ░░░░░░░░ high yield corporate debt ░░░░░░░░ didn t exist then ░░░░░░░░ all marks the market ░░░░░░░░ people can sell at ░░░░░░░░ closing price it is ░░░░░░░░ far less stable situation ░░░░░░░░ we had in 208 ░░░░░░░░ a lot of the ░░░░░░░░ s say risky assets ░░░░░░░░ in the banking system ░░░░░░░░ they could decree no ░░░░░░░░ to market and where ░░░░░░░░ had acidic safety net ░░░░░░░░ and where he had ░░░░░░░░ Fed pumping in hundreds ░░░░░░░░ billions a week during ░░░░░░░░ worst of it in ░░░░░░░░ fall away you don ░░░░░░░░ have any of that ░░░░░░░░ to basically have six ░░░░░░░░ seven trillion of ETFs ░░░░░░░░ funds and you know ░░░░░░░░ ended mutual funds that ░░░░░░░░ all become subject to ░░░░░░░░ on the bank so ░░░░░░░░ speak if confidence in ░░░░░░░░ whole giant Ponzi scheme ░░░░░░░░ to unravel so that ░░░░░░░░ s real danger in ░░░░░░░░ of them see it ░░░░░░░░ know why because they ░░░░░░░░ that what they re ░░░░░░░░ is correct and that ░░░░░░░░ re presiding over you ░░░░░░░░ God s work or ░░░░░░░░ and in effect they ░░░░░░░░ creating a monster like ░░░░░░░░ before in history it ░░░░░░░░ great it s crazy ░░░░░░░░ you take it that ░░░░░░░░ just the Fed then ░░░░░░░░ s add the ECB ░░░░░░░░ the BOJ unite let ░░░░░░░░ the European Central Bank ░░░░░░░░ the Bank of Japan ░░░░░░░░ they ve destroyed their ░░░░░░░░ markets there is no ░░░░░░░░ there is no market ░░░░░░░░ European sovereign debt there ░░░░░░░░ no market for Japanese ░░░░░░░░ debt Japanese government bonds ░░░░░░░░ we re looking at ░░░░░░░░ incipient sovereign debt crisis ░░░░░░░░ the issue right that ░░░░░░░░ this is in Martin ░░░░░░░░ from Bart banging on ░░░░░░░░ this for years and ░░░░░░░░ and and I ve ░░░░░░░░ banging on it for ░░░░░░░░ least the last two ░░░░░░░░ is exactly the same ░░░░░░░░ which is that a ░░░░░░░░ level everybody is going ░░░░░░░░ realize that these guys ░░░░░░░░ t have any answers ░░░░░░░░ the real crisis of ░░░░░░░░ comes in when we ░░░░░░░░ confidence in the central ░░░░░░░░ s and what Trump ░░░░░░░░ and what happened in ░░░░░░░░ when Powell capitulated after ░░░░░░░░ interest rates in December ░░░░░░░░ said write that in ░░░░░░░░ said the feds done ░░░░░░░░ Fed just told the ░░░░░░░░ market they don t ░░░░░░░░ any answers and then ░░░░░░░░ ECB followed up three ░░░░░░░░ later and said the ░░░░░░░░ thing they changed their ░░░░░░░░ and all that stuff ░░░░░░░░ I said that s ░░░░░░░░ turning point because if ░░░░░░░░ is so rosy why ░░░░░░░░ you want to cut ░░░░░░░░ why do you not ░░░░░░░░ to raise raise here ░░░░░░░░ are 18 of the ░░░░░░░░ expansion is longest one ░░░░░░░░ months and that was ░░░░░░░░ tech boom of the ░░░░░░░░ there were a lot ░░░░░░░░ headwinds then retail wins ░░░░░░░░ versus the headwinds today ░░░░░░░░ it s important to ░░░░░░░░ that at the top ░░░░░░░░ that cycle you know ░░░░░░░░ where we are today ░░░░░░░░ was a 2 of ░░░░░░░░ budget surplus there wasn ░░░░░░░░ a massive Treasury borrowing ░░░░░░░░ s one unlike this ░░░░░░░░ where they re going ░░░░░░░░ borrow 1 2 trillion ░░░░░░░░ into the market at ░░░░░░░░ top of the business ░░░░░░░░ putting upward pressure on ░░░░░░░░ back then the balance ░░░░░░░░ of the Fed was ░░░░░░░░ billion taken 86 years ░░░░░░░░ get there now you ░░░░░░░░ we peaked at 4 ░░░░░░░░ 1 2 trillion and ░░░░░░░░ re trying to slowly ░░░░░░░░ it even if reluctantly ░░░░░░░░ Qt back then the ░░░░░░░░ Ponzi was just fighting ░░░░░░░░ sealegs foot speaking was ░░░░░░░░ the boom like never ░░░░░░░░ today it s you ░░░░░░░░ saturated with 40 trillion ░░░░░░░░ of debt on a ░░░░░░░░ trillion GDP if you ░░░░░░░░ credit to their numbers ░░░░░░░░ I don t the ░░░░░░░░ EC was then just ░░░░░░░░ into being and they ░░░░░░░░ about ready to have ░░░░░░░░ borrow and spend bonanza ░░░░░░░░ carried the system for ░░░░░░░░ decade but today you ░░░░░░░░ it s a socialist ░░░░░░░░ sinking under debt and ░░░░░░░░ utter confusion of a ░░░░░░░░ Bank ECB which you ░░░░░░░░ have to go down ░░░░░░░░ history as one of ░░░░░░░░ greatest monetary abortions under ░░░░░░░░ that s ever been ░░░░░░░░ in history or contemplated ░░░░░░░░ when you put all ░░░░░░░░ that together you realize ░░░░░░░░ at month 118 of ░░░░░░░░ cycle with all of ░░░░░░░░ headwinds versus tailwind it ░░░░░░░░ only a matter of ░░░░░░░░ before the furniture starts ░░░░░░░░ I know it was ░░░░░░░░ when I was reading ░░░░░░░░ Trump when you graciously ░░░░░░░░ me an advanced copy ░░░░░░░░ it because we were ░░░░░░░░ to do this back ░░░░░░░░ February and we just ░░░░░░░░ got around to that ░░░░░░░░ the thing that really ░░░░░░░░ out to me there ░░░░░░░░ there a couple of ░░░░░░░░ that I took away ░░░░░░░░ it which was I ░░░░░░░░ t thought about which ░░░░░░░░ that at the peak ░░░░░░░░ the last cycle in ░░░░░░░░ around the y2k the ░░░░░░░░ hadn t gotten started ░░░░░░░░ and so there s ░░░░░░░░ capacity to take on ░░░░░░░░ debt I ve been ░░░░░░░░ using the term debt ░░░░░░░░ for a long long ░░░░░░░░ now but it was ░░░░░░░░ eye opening for me ░░░░░░░░ say oh you re ░░░░░░░░ and then we had ░░░░░░░░ rise of China which ░░░░░░░░ could become a huge ░░░░░░░░ site sink for so ░░░░░░░░ years and the fact ░░░░░░░░ now the German the ░░░░░░░░ had consolidated so much ░░░░░░░░ Europe under their rubric ░░░░░░░░ that they could export ░░░░░░░░ of internally run the ░░░░░░░░ thing the same expansion ░░░░░░░░ expansion within the your ░░░░░░░░ Union using the euro ░░░░░░░░ the protection tariffs as ░░░░░░░░ to anything else as ░░░░░░░░ anything as opposed to ░░░░░░░░ a flat production tariff ░░░░░░░░ it s really that ░░░░░░░░ really fascinating to me ░░░░░░░░ and it really helped ░░░░░░░░ and it was really ░░░░░░░░ that they actually really ░░░░░░░░ your doing that because ░░░░░░░░ really needed some some ░░░░░░░░ at that point you ░░░░░░░░ back in February things ░░░░░░░░ getting really confusing to ░░░░░░░░ and I was actually ░░░░░░░░ to lose thread of ░░░░░░░░ script and I as ░░░░░░░░ as is I mean ░░░░░░░░ you know you try ░░░░░░░░ you tried to stay ░░░░░░░░ all took you try ░░░░░░░░ keep it all together ░░░░░░░░ I like I ve ░░░░░░░░ down the line but ░░░░░░░░ it s hard to ░░░░░░░░ it all together because ░░░░░░░░ re in utterly uncharted ░░░░░░░░ if we re in ░░░░░░░░ world of 24 7 ░░░░░░░░ Tehan news and online ░░░░░░░░ response and breaking headlines ░░░░░░░░ all the rest of ░░░░░░░░ that people have lost ░░░░░░░░ on the foundation of ░░░░░░░░ we re sitting on ░░░░░░░░ so I keep saying ░░░░░░░░ know we are in ░░░░░░░░ world that is dominated ░░░░░░░░ the cult of central ░░░░░░░░ like nothing in financial ░░░░░░░░ economic history if you ░░░░░░░░ any reasonable period of ░░░░░░░░ and people need to ░░░░░░░░ that isn t natural ░░░░░░░░ s not stable if ░░░░░░░░ s not sustainable and ░░░░░░░░ s why what lies ░░░░░░░░ is very different from ░░░░░░░░ is in immediately in ░░░░░░░░ rearview mirror take the ░░░░░░░░ in the year 2000 ░░░░░░░░ combined balance sheets of ░░░░░░░░ central bank were bare ░░░░░░░░ banks of the world ░░░░░░░░ the big ones that ░░░░░░░░ ve just itemized we ░░░░░░░░ barely 2 trillion dollars ░░░░░░░░ s 25 trillion today ░░░░░░░░ in Chris of this ░░░░░░░░ which isn t even ░░░░░░░░ decades old we ve ░░░░░░░░ a 12x increase in ░░░░░░░░ balance sheet the central ░░░░░░░░ s what does that ░░░░░░░░ they ve made about ░░░░░░░░ two trillion purchase a ░░░░░░░░ purchasing power out of ░░░░░░░░ air and of course ░░░░░░░░ you buy in 20 ░░░░░░░░ trillion worth of sovereign ░░░░░░░░ and then in China ░░░░░░░░ mean in Japan ETFs ░░░░░░░░ securitized real estate and ░░░░░░░░ case the Bank of ░░░░░░░░ you end up being ░░░░░░░░ biggest share owner and ░░░░░░░░ and other big global ░░░░░░░░ my point is all ░░░░░░░░ that artificial purchasing power ░░░░░░░░ was you know smashed ░░░░░░░░ thin air by the ░░░░░░░░ bank s has distorted ░░░░░░░░ pricing of all financial ░░░░░░░░ you know the rules ░░░░░░░░ the law of supply ░░░░░░░░ demand hasn t been ░░░░░░░░ and when you throw ░░░░░░░░ trillion worth of demand ░░░░░░░░ the financial system with ░░░░░░░░ offending changes on the ░░░░░░░░ side you basically levitate ░░░░░░░░ price of all financial ░░░░░░░░ and therefore miss price ░░░░░░░░ entire system you know ░░░░░░░░ effort it s very ░░░░░░░░ than when you or ░░░░░░░░ decided to buy some ░░░░░░░░ either we gotta say ░░░░░░░░ the current income and ░░░░░░░░ spend it or we ░░░░░░░░ to reallocate our portfolio ░░░░░░░░ we felt some bonds ░░░░░░░░ buy some stock that ░░░░░░░░ how the world works ░░░░░░░░ supply and demand that ░░░░░░░░ you know asset allocation ░░░░░░░░ s allegedly the efficiency ░░░░░░░░ the free market at ░░░░░░░░ but when you get ░░░░░░░░ the central banking cult ░░░░░░░░ s all about free ░░░░░░░░ wrecking free markets and ░░░░░░░░ s what a lot ░░░░░░░░ conservatives the yeah that ░░░░░░░░ enemy number one number ░░░░░░░░ and number three is ░░░░░░░░ Fed the Fed the ░░░░░░░░ and the convoy of ░░░░░░░░ banks around the world ░░░░░░░░ more or less ate ░░░░░░░░ it s doing and ░░░░░░░░ have to essentially copy ░░░░░░░░ it s doing at ░░░░░░░░ as their officials see ░░░░░░░░ in the short run ░░░░░░░░ and protect their own ░░░░░░░░ export oriented policies so ░░░░░░░░ s been a bad ░░░░░░░░ in other words the ░░░░░░░░ one export of the ░░░░░░░░ States in the last ░░░░░░░░ years has been bad ░░░░░░░░ emitted by the Fed ░░░░░░░░ then circulated into the ░░░░░░░░ financial system and doubled ░░░░░░░░ upon by all the ░░░░░░░░ countries of the world ░░░░░░░░ oil oil exporters China ░░░░░░░░ the whole complex Far ░░░░░░░░ exporters you know the ░░░░░░░░ system is being driven ░░░░░░░░ 12 people sitting on ░░░░░░░░ FOMC who were so ░░░░░░░░ in groupthink that they ░░░░░░░░ t even see they ░░░░░░░░ talking stupidity like you ░░░░░░░░ when you hear them ░░░░░░░░ about our star I ░░░░░░░░ you almost think you ░░░░░░░░ some kind of met ░░░░░░░░ us there was an ░░░░░░░░ natural rate of interest ░░░░░░░░ changes every day it ░░░░░░░░ worse than that it ░░░░░░░░ it for all of ░░░░░░░░ this people understand what ░░░░░░░░ re talking about what ░░░░░░░░ stars are stars in ░░░░░░░░ black Scholes equation for ░░░░░░░░ right for pricing derivative ░░░░░░░░ be it options or ░░░░░░░░ or whatever that the ░░░░░░░░ R star is the ░░░░░░░░ risk rate of interest ░░░░░░░░ and for and and ░░░░░░░░ all intents and purposes ░░░░░░░░ treat that as zero ░░░░░░░░ the to the United ░░░░░░░░ okay and that is ░░░░░░░░ that is the fundamental ░░░░░░░░ one that s the ░░░░░░░░ problem actually that you ░░░░░░░░ this up I haven ░░░░░░░░ talked about our star ░░░░░░░░ years it s funny ░░░░░░░░ course it is and ░░░░░░░░ and and dueling multipliers ░░░░░░░░ all this stuff like ░░░░░░░░ you know and but ░░░░░░░░ star by the market ░░░░░░░░ it as effectively at ░░░░░░░░ that there s zero ░░░░░░░░ risk on the unite ░░░░░░░░ the United States which ░░░░░░░░ by the way the ░░░░░░░░ reason why the dollar ░░░░░░░░ the dominant trade currency ░░░░░░░░ the world and the ░░░░░░░░ financial currency in the ░░░░░░░░ is because we have ░░░░░░░░ defaulted on our debt ░░░░░░░░ we don t plant ░░░░░░░░ we don t plan ░░░░░░░░ doing so yet we ░░░░░░░░ gonna obviously inflate it ░░░░░░░░ and because of that ░░░░░░░░ creates a fundamental mispricing ░░░░░░░░ risk and every financial ░░░░░░░░ there is in the ░░░░░░░░ every every bond every ░░░░░░░░ every everything they re ░░░░░░░░ fundamentally best price every ░░░░░░░░ contract every every interest ░░░░░░░░ swap derivative it doesn ░░░░░░░░ matter what it is ░░░░░░░░ because of this fundamental ░░░░░░░░ now in some ways ░░░░░░░░ s weaken credit default ░░░░░░░░ try to create a ░░░░░░░░ value for our star ░░░░░░░░ and it s done ░░░░░░░░ all the other currencies ░░░░░░░░ the world then all ░░░░░░░░ other sovereign debt in ░░░░░░░░ world you know if ░░░░░░░░ re 300 basis point ░░░░░░░░ got a 300 basis ░░░░░░░░ eds rate on italian ░░░░░░░░ year bond well you ░░░░░░░░ plug that into your ░░░░░░░░ Scholes equation to figure ░░░░░░░░ what the actual price ░░░░░░░░ the bond should be ░░░░░░░░ now if you or ░░░░░░░░ some transformation of that ░░░░░░░░ but we don t ░░░░░░░░ that but we don ░░░░░░░░ get that with the ░░░░░░░░ States Treasury bond and ░░░░░░░░ you said earlier the ░░░░░░░░ year note is the ░░░░░░░░ rate for the entire ░░░░░░░░ financial system and so ░░░░░░░░ bath that auction in ░░░░░░░░ in that issue absolutely ░░░░░░░░ s sort of a ░░░░░░░░ with something we mentioned ░░░░░░░░ while back and that ░░░░░░░░ we are at the ░░░░░░░░ tippy top of a ░░░░░░░░ but long business cycle ░░░░░░░░ you know by all ░░░░░░░░ standards you would expect ░░░░░░░░ at that point rates ░░░░░░░░ have normalized that in ░░░░░░░░ pressures in the system ░░░░░░░░ be driving rates to ░░░░░░░░ point where they begin ░░░░░░░░ they re curtail the ░░░░░░░░ of credit expansion and ░░░░░░░░ the economy goes into ░░░░░░░░ normal adjustment but here ░░░░░░░░ are because of this ░░░░░░░░ of central bank banking ░░░░░░░░ this massive expansion of ░░░░░░░░ sheets here we are ░░░░░░░░ 118 and there is ░░░░░░░░ 10 trillion of sovereign ░░░░░░░░ in the world trading ░░░░░░░░ a negative nominal yield ░░░░░░░░ that s crazy is ░░░░░░░░ is first day crazy ░░░░░░░░ sometime maybe a year ░░░░░░░░ years three years into ░░░░░░░░ you know broken furniture ░░░░░░░░ s coming people are ░░░░░░░░ to say why did ░░░░░░░░ one why did we ░░░░░░░░ notice no this and ░░░░░░░░ think the markets are ░░░░░░░░ this is the interesting ░░░░░░░░ about it I really ░░░░░░░░ believe that we ve ░░░░░░░░ into that moment where ░░░░░░░░ dollars starting to break ░░░░░░░░ you look at the ░░░░░░░░ Dollar Index we re ░░░░░░░░ to get that that ░░░░░░░░ the long term turn ░░░░░░░░ the US Dollar Index ░░░░░░░░ screaming that there s ░░░░░░░░ technical breakout occurring above ░░░░░░░░ 5 and the DX ░░░░░░░░ the dsy and and ░░░░░░░░ ve been talking about ░░░░░░░░ for a long time ░░░░░░░░ this is what we ░░░░░░░░ to watch for to ░░░░░░░░ this is when it ░░░░░░░░ start to go start ░░░░░░░░ uncontrollable they ll start ░░░░░░░░ lose control of it ░░░░░░░░ desperately holding the the ░░░░░░░░ bubba dollar 12 for ░░░░░░░░ right there trust version ░░░░░░░░ m trying to hold ░░░░░░░░ British Pound at a ░░░░░░░░ 30 they don t ░░░░░░░░ it to collapse from ░░░░░░░░ there s no dollar ░░░░░░░░ shoots up and then ░░░░░░░░ will then start the ░░░░░░░░ and sort of unwind ░░░░░░░░ tremendous amount of interest ░░░░░░░░ derivatives and all this ░░░░░░░░ stuff especially with Deutsche ░░░░░░░░ sitting there on the ░░░░░░░░ of complete collapse right ░░░░░░░░ had that I mean ░░░░░░░░ s so many things ░░░░░░░░ there s so many ░░░░░░░░ black swans out there ░░░░░░░░ we were blowing up ░░░░░░░░ there s a hundred ░░░░░░░░ dollars of that garbage ░░░░░░░░ European balance sheets all ░░░░░░░░ of stuff yeah you ░░░░░░░░ so right everywhere being ░░░░░░░░ ignored because going back ░░░░░░░░ my point there recency ░░░░░░░░ is so overwhelming that ░░░░░░░░ live in is so ░░░░░░░░ term literally it s ░░░░░░░░ know it s not ░░░░░░░░ hours or days anymore ░░░░░░░░ I think it s ░░░░░░░░ and nanoseconds that these ░░░░░░░░ that we can see ░░░░░░░░ easily the 10 trillion ░░░░░░░░ negative yielders are our ░░░░░░░░ is part of the ░░░░░░░░ like the Sun coming ░░░░░░░░ every morning and setting ░░░░░░░░ evening it s a ░░░░░░░░ s viewed as kind ░░░░░░░░ natural and there and ░░░░░░░░ to be noticed when ░░░░░░░░ flashing red light saying ░░░░░░░░ immediately ahead yes absolutely ░░░░░░░░ we were it I ░░░░░░░░ m dead serious when ░░░░░░░░ say that the thing ░░░░░░░░ it is and the ░░░░░░░░ part about this at ░░░░░░░░ the is how crazy ░░░░░░░░ s going to be ░░░░░░░░ Europe all of the ░░░░░░░░ that looks like it ░░░░░░░░ coming together at the ░░░░░░░░ of this month right ░░░░░░░░ ve got European parliamentary ░░░░░░░░ you ve got the ░░░░░░░░ elections are going to ░░░░░░░░ up if Danish elections ░░░░░░░░ coming up and then ░░░░░░░░ have on top of ░░░░░░░░ you have this morning ░░░░░░░░ or today the the ░░░░░░░░ on China will go ░░░░░░░░ effect but Trump exempted ░░░░░░░░ cargo currently in transit ░░░░░░░░ the bulk of that ░░░░░░░░ going to show up ░░░░░░░░ according to zero heads ░░░░░░░░ morning in the next ░░░░░░░░ of weeks so that ░░░░░░░░ it right in line ░░░░░░░░ everything else happening on ░░░░░░░░ weekend of the 22nd ░░░░░░░░ May so over the ░░░░░░░░ of the next two ░░░░░░░░ a half to three ░░░░░░░░ we could be staring ░░░░░░░░ the we could be ░░░░░░░░ at a literal change ░░░░░░░░ the global not only ░░░░░░░░ but political system as ░░░░░░░░ call it actually taking ░░░░░░░░ facts you ve just ░░░░░░░░ and turning the implication ░░░░░░░░ down he said there ░░░░░░░░ nothing to worry about ░░░░░░░░ it doesn t it ░░░░░░░░ t impact anything that ░░░░░░░░ on the water which ░░░░░░░░ we won t see ░░░░░░░░ impact for several weeks ░░░░░░░░ the question I had ░░░░░░░░ what do you think ░░░░░░░░ going to happen at ░░░░░░░░ end of several weeks ░░░░░░░░ spending and no one ░░░░░░░░ us I mean how ░░░░░░░░ someone take comfort in ░░░░░░░░ fact you know stuff ░░░░░░░░ m the blue waters ░░░░░░░░ when there s a ░░░░░░░░ on the other side ░░░░░░░░ the exemption right that ░░░░░░░░ again a measure of ░░░░░░░░ short term it is ░░░░░░░░ how naive actually both ░░░░░░░░ in the Acela quarter ░░░░░░░░ all these day traders ░░░░░░░░ on Wall Street and ░░░░░░░░ is think that when ░░░░░░░░ comes to shove the ░░░░░░░░ powers that be the ░░░░░░░░ will do whatever it ░░░░░░░░ to keep the game ░░░░░░░░ the ball in the ░░░░░░░░ and the stock averages ░░░░░░░░ at their nosebleed levels ░░░░░░░░ this isn t they ░░░░░░░░ did it in 208 ░░░░░░░░ s just face it ░░░░░░░░ and you had actually ░░░░░░░░ that knew what they ░░░░░░░░ doing somewhat I mean ░░░░░░░░ m totally against paulsen ░░░░░░░░ Bernanke but at least ░░░░░░░░ had some idea of ░░░░░░░░ was going on and ░░░░░░░░ were able to orchestrate ░░░░░░░░ craziness where you know ░░░░░░░░ got down on his ░░░░░░░░ begged Nancy Pelosi to ░░░░░░░░ George Bush so a ░░░░░░░░ before this sucker blows ░░░░░░░░ he said it at ░░░░░░░░ time well that was ░░░░░░░░ and they did it ░░░░░░░░ a hair but what ░░░░░░░░ that happen now you ░░░░░░░░ a totally defied divided ░░░░░░░░ it s going to ░░░░░░░░ under vicious relentless attack ░░░░░░░░ trunk when it starts ░░░░░░░░ on long because he ░░░░░░░░ going to blame them ░░░░░░░░ every day he s ░░░░░░░░ to tweet it you ░░░░░░░░ around the clock in ░░░░░░░░ very vicious angry way ░░░░░░░░ have a partisan split ░░░░░░░░ this Russia gate hoax ░░░░░░░░ and nonsense that has ░░░░░░░░ the government like never ░░░░░░░░ and frankly I was ░░░░░░░░ from the beginning 19 ░░░░░░░░ I lifting all the ░░░░░░░░ is you know your ░░░░░░░░ of one of the ░░░░░░░░ Republican leaders at the ░░░░░░░░ there s nothing like ░░░░░░░░ is staring us in ░░░░░░░░ face around the corner ░░░░░░░░ terms of a government ░░░░░░░░ is non functional paralyzed ░░░░░░░░ at war with itself ░░░░░░░░ a Wall Street that ░░░░░░░░ the government is still ░░░░░░░░ you know to come ░░░░░░░░ the rescue send in ░░░░░░░░ Fire Brigades if and ░░░░░░░░ we can need it ░░░░░░░░ that is the great ░░░░░░░░ of the moment in ░░░░░░░░ view I agree um ░░░░░░░░ the last thing I ░░░░░░░░ to bring up just ░░░░░░░░ kind of wrap all ░░░░░░░░ up if we had ░░░░░░░░ one big theme here ░░░░░░░░ back to the original ░░░░░░░░ about the book and ░░░░░░░░ Trump and all this ░░░░░░░░ which is that what ░░░░░░░░ is doing and what ░░░░░░░░ keep telling people over ░░░░░░░░ over again what Trump ░░░░░░░░ doing is fomenting the ░░░░░░░░ uncertainty he s trying ░░░░░░░░ avoid he doesn t ░░░░░░░░ a stronger dollar and ░░░░░░░░ every day he can ░░░░░░░░ let the Overton Window ░░░░░░░░ a nanometre away from ░░░░░░░░ therefore we have to ░░░░░░░░ we have to have ░░░░░░░░ have to grab it ░░░░░░░░ make some other headline ░░░░░░░░ this or some of ░░░░░░░░ other headline about that ░░░░░░░░ every 15 20 minutes ░░░░░░░░ hour every 24 hours ░░░░░░░░ has to control the ░░░░░░░░ hour news cycle and ░░░░░░░░ of that he creates ░░░░░░░░ uncertainty every day he ░░░░░░░░ back and forth thinking ░░░░░░░░ you know my negotiations ░░░░░░░░ nice jog left I ░░░░░░░░ right well Wall Street ░░░░░░░░ the global investing community ░░░░░░░░ dude I m not ░░░░░░░░ on this I can ░░░░░░░░ I can t manage ░░░░░░░░ on this what do ░░░░░░░░ read of your mind ░░░░░░░░ you shut up for ░░░░░░░░ least a week as ░░░░░░░░ was they don t ░░░░░░░░ know if they were ░░░░░░░░ traders but with Tom ░░░░░░░░ re now down to ░░░░░░░░ does he think about ░░░░░░░░ 6 45 A M ░░░░░░░░ he puts out a ░░░░░░░░ to 60 million people ░░░░░░░░ because he woke up ░░░░░░░░ know with a snip ░░░░░░░░ his mind or from ░░░░░░░░ wrong side of the ░░░░░░░░ the even the day ░░░░░░░░ can t cope with ░░░░░░░░ they re getting vertigo ░░░░░░░░ once they get vertigo ░░░░░░░░ lose their bearings entirely ░░░░░░░░ also you know what ░░░░░░░░ keep saying is the ░░░░░░░░ is driven in the ░░░░░░░░ run near term by ░░░░░░░░ I called the chart ░░░░░░░░ s just running you ░░░░░░░░ 50 days and 200 ░░░░░░░░ and 20 days and ░░░░░░░░ kind of Fibonacci ratios ░░░░░░░░ know the chart monkeys ░░░░░░░░ going to lose track ░░░░░░░░ where they are and ░░░░░░░░ re going to get ░░░░░░░░ and then you have ░░░░░░░░ real mess out oh ░░░░░░░░ I I put together ░░░░░░░░ chart the other day ░░░░░░░░ a blog post trying ░░░░░░░░ explain what was going ░░░░░░░░ you know my normal ░░░░░░░░ reports for my for ░░░░░░░░ people I do purely ░░░░░░░░ in barbar analysis and ░░░░░░░░ just do it practically ░░░░░░░░ time I don t ░░░░░░░░ it I tried to ░░░░░░░░ this few you know ░░░░░░░░ in charge and all ░░░░░░░░ other because I don ░░░░░░░░ believe any of that ░░░░░░░░ anymore I ve tried ░░░░░░░░ all it doesn t ░░░░░░░░ and I used to ░░░░░░░░ simple volatility statistics right ░░░░░░░░ has all their own ░░░░░░░░ says mines are very ░░░░░░░░ which is that is ░░░░░░░░ intra intra bar range ░░░░░░░░ if low to high ░░░░░░░░ weak to end the ░░░░░░░░ between week to week ░░░░░░░░ bar to bar closes ░░░░░░░░ on a weekly basis ░░░░░░░░ Trump went on his ░░░░░░░░ war those two figures ░░░░░░░░ more than doubled on ░░░░░░░░ weekly basis if you ░░░░░░░░ at a two year ░░░░░░░░ of the Dow and ░░░░░░░░ just go and you ░░░░░░░░ look at it from ░░░░░░░░ day he was elected ░░░░░░░░ the peak until the ░░░░░░░░ the original peak in ░░░░░░░░ the beginning of 2018 ░░░░░░░░ the last 15 months ░░░░░░░░ will see a relatively ░░░░░░░░ bull market and then ░░░░░░░░ will see noise an ░░░░░░░░ now noise just go ░░░░░░░░ at a chart of ░░░░░░░░ Dow and then now ░░░░░░░░ the International is is ░░░░░░░░ international opinion of the ░░░░░░░░ effectively because that s ░░░░░░░░ international capital flows are ░░░░░░░░ come in and out ░░░░░░░░ my fundamental thesis at ░░░░░░░░ point is that the ░░░░░░░░ is going to see ░░░░░░░░ lion s share of ░░░░░░░░ of the of the ░░░░░░░░ once the once the ░░░░░░░░ debt crisis near really ░░░░░░░░ to take hold right ░░░░░░░░ if you re skeptics ░░░░░░░░ ballistic at the European ░░░░░░░░ elections all all bets ░░░░░░░░ off we re also ░░░░░░░░ this in the Eurodollar ░░░░░░░░ curve and all that ░░░░░░░░ Jeff Snyder of balaam ░░░░░░░░ I know if you ░░░░░░░░ him or not the ░░░░░░░░ dollar your dollar markets ░░░░░░░░ how what s pretty ░░░░░░░░ I probably shit you ░░░░░░░░ as what I thought ░░░░░░░░ reads on my blog ░░░░░░░░ corner I publish a ░░░░░░░░ of this stuff republish ░░░░░░░░ I think people really ░░░░░░░░ to understand this is ░░░░░░░░ short dollar world and ░░░░░░░░ push comes to shove ░░░░░░░░ know the whole furniture ░░░░░░░░ gonna break everywhere and ░░░░░░░░ t it funny that ░░░░░░░░ s all just Mises ░░░░░░░░ fear argument all over ░░░░░░░░ you know when I ░░░░░░░░ down I think about ░░░░░░░░ on this who s ░░░░░░░░ are both Austrian economist ░░░░░░░░ think back on my ░░░░░░░░ lessons of Austrian Economics ░░░░░░░░ go back to like ░░░░░░░░ I study this stuff ░░░░░░░░ back in one 2002 ░░░░░░░░ I m just gonna ░░░░░░░░ this is Matt it ░░░░░░░░ just Mises his master ░░░░░░░░ parable all over again ░░░░░░░░ s just not enough ░░░░░░░░ to finish this house ░░░░░░░░ it s just not ░░░░░░░░ bricks and you can ░░░░░░░░ the next time they ░░░░░░░░ through a balance sheet ░░░░░░░░ it s gonna be ░░░░░░░░ hundred trillion dollars and ░░░░░░░░ that point the whole ░░░░░░░░ just collapses right here ░░░░░░░░ a matter of fact ░░░░░░░░ doubt whether they re ░░░░░░░░ there s going to ░░░░░░░░ much of a positive ░░░░░░░░ to QE for if ░░░░░░░░ when they get there ░░░░░░░░ they ll they re ░░░░░░░░ do I try to ░░░░░░░░ it in disguise that ░░░░░░░░ heard this the other ░░░░░░░░ number the Fed heads ░░░░░░░░ out and they re ░░░░░░░░ well we have a ░░░░░░░░ way to do it ░░░░░░░░ re gonna peg various ░░░░░░░░ on the treasury curve ░░░░░░░░ what that is is ░░░░░░░░ same thing the Japanese ░░░░░░░░ to it because we ░░░░░░░░ they pegged their 10 ░░░░░░░░ at zero point zero ░░░░░░░░ and now they re ░░░░░░░░ every damn bond offered ░░░░░░░░ zero point zero because ░░░░░░░░ wants to hold them ░░░░░░░░ is the place nary ░░░░░░░░ it s not inflationary ░░░░░░░░ s you inflate the ░░░░░░░░ you inflate the numbers ░░░░░░░░ at the end of ░░░░░░░░ day this sentiment behind ░░░░░░░░ is that the the ░░░░░░░░ are so bad that ░░░░░░░░ have to we have ░░░░░░░░ create money because actually ░░░░░░░░ markets are trying to ░░░░░░░░ and that s the ░░░░░░░░ here that s why ░░░░░░░░ was never going to ░░░░░░░░ any kind of prosperity ░░░░░░░░ but that s why ░░░░░░░░ think when they try ░░░░░░░░ this time it s ░░░░░░░░ to become so convoluted ░░░░░░░░ their credibility will be ░░░░░░░░ they have said it ░░░░░░░░ fixed they said we ░░░░░░░░ a damn year for ░░░░░░░░ Nirvana caging full employment ░░░░░░░░ capacity fully utilize actually ░░░░░░░░ above the potential growth ░░░░░░░░ and all of this ░░░░░░░░ which is just made ░░░░░░░░ numbers because these people ░░░░░░░░ basically what someone said ░░░░░░░░ Bernanke he s the ░░░░░░░░ rate mathematician and a ░░░░░░░░ economist these are all ░░░░░░░░ are all mathematicians don ░░░░░░░░ know anything about Economics ░░░░░░░░ the money part is ░░░░░░░░ the funny part is ░░░░░░░░ is part that that ░░░░░░░░ completely I have to ░░░░░░░░ again these guys in ░░░░░░░░ ivory tower the Eccles ░░░░░░░░ and go all around ░░░░░░░░ universities at the Fed ░░░░░░░░ for and all that ░░░░░░░░ all net will not ░░░░░░░░ of them is ever ░░░░░░░░ a stock yes a ░░░░░░░░ none of that stuff ░░░░░░░░ the PBOC the People ░░░░░░░░ Bank of China sends ░░░░░░░░ their guys over here ░░░░░░░░ trade in commodity pits ░░░░░░░░ pits and everything else ░░░░░░░░ trade all this stuff ░░░░░░░░ then go back and ░░░░░░░░ set policy so this ░░░░░░░░ the last fallacy of ░░░░░░░░ s thinking that he ░░░░░░░░ going to win a ░░░░░░░░ war with China when ░░░░░░░░ have better traders than ░░░░░░░░ do right right in ░░░░░░░░ central bank anyway there ░░░░░░░░ a lot lot here ░░░░░░░░ it weren t so ░░░░░░░░ and it weren t ░░░░░░░░ worrisome it would be ░░░░░░░░ fantastic time to be ░░░░░░░░ into this but I ░░░░░░░░ afraid you know that ░░░░░░░░ was about ready to ░░░░░░░░ and some be very ░░░░░░░░ for a lot of ░░░░░░░░ who have got caught ░░░░░░░░ in this yet once ░░░░░░░░ I saw a story ░░░░░░░░ morning I posted on ░░░░░░░░ blog about how all ░░░░░░░░ these people gradually were ░░░░░░░░ back into house flipping ░░░░░░░░ you know so easy ░░░░░░░░ make so much money ░░░░░░░░ the interest rates were ░░░░░░░░ at zero and Q ░░░░░░░░ was running full speed ░░░░░░░░ they re all out ░░░░░░░░ sitting on hot properties ░░░░░░░░ San Francisco Seattle and ░░░░░░░░ where prices are falling ░░░░░░░░ borrowed up to the ░░░░░░░░ I put huge amounts ░░░░░░░░ money into refurbs and ░░░░░░░░ re losing their shirts ░░░░░░░░ they were suckered back ░░░░░░░░ it and they re ░░░░░░░░ the money from black ░░░░░░░░ you know it s ░░░░░░░░ sad all right David ░░░░░░░░ has been absolutely fantastic ░░░░░░░░ we re a little ░░░░░░░░ an hour now and ░░░░░░░░ know you have a ░░░░░░░░ day I think we ░░░░░░░░ probably end it here ░░░░░░░░ d love to do ░░░░░░░░ again when you have ░░░░░░░░ we can follow up ░░░░░░░░ after Trump has destroyed ░░░░░░░░ world economy and began ░░░░░░░░ more fun to dance ░░░░░░░░ this wave or whatever ░░░░░░░░ just I m so ░░░░░░░░ disillusioned at this point ░░░░░░░░ don t even care ░░░░░░░░ d like to believe ░░░░░░░░ he s got a ░░░░░░░░ and a plan but ░░░░░░░░ just I can t ░░░░░░░░ this point it s ░░░░░░░░ would be it would ░░░░░░░░ terrible for me as ░░░░░░░░ you know as an ░░░░░░░░ to not take this ░░░░░░░░ show anything any rose ░░░░░░░░ glasses at this point ░░░░░░░░ you know say to ░░░░░░░░ off exactly that point ░░░░░░░░ you still think he ░░░░░░░░ a plan for an ░░░░░░░░ or a program then ░░░░░░░░ haven t been paying ░░░░░░░░ after that since it ░░░░░░░░ obvious by now that ░░░░░░░░ is by the hour ░░░░░░░░ this native appearance it ░░░░░░░░ in every direction and ░░░░░░░░ know if we needed ░░░░░░░░ great disrupter to bring ░░░░░░░░ status quo to an ░░░░░░░░ and any decisive break ░░░░░░░░ ve got it yes ░░░░░░░░ well David uh again ░░░░░░░░ really appreciate you doing ░░░░░░░░ as it s a ░░░░░░░░ to talk to you ░░░░░░░░ get to talk to ░░░░░░░░ in person because you ░░░░░░░░ I ve been emailing ░░░░░░░░ and forth for months ░░░░░░░░ and really appreciate your ░░░░░░░░ and your diligence and ░░░░░░░░ that you do a ░░░░░░░░ corner and and all ░░░░░░░░ that because I think ░░░░░░░░ s very valuable to ░░░░░░░░ a person of your ░░░░░░░░ just do what you ░░░░░░░░ been doing for the ░░░░░░░░ what 10 or 15 ░░░░░░░░ now I remember when ░░░░░░░░ when when you first ░░░░░░░░ the big shift and ░░░░░░░░ a contrarian open contrarian ░░░░░░░░ this I I was ░░░░░░░░ remember reading it on ░░░░░░░░ Rock well all those ░░░░░░░░ ago and going yes ░░░░░░░░ someone finally gets it ░░░░░░░░ Wall Street that was ░░░░░░░░ last I said you ░░░░░░░░ I ve spent the ░░░░░░░░ two decades in the ░░░░░░░░ business actually I was ░░░░░░░░ the LPO business I ░░░░░░░░ t been paying that ░░░░░░░░ attention but what the ░░░░░░░░ is happening here well ░░░░░░░░ got a bailout GM ░░░░░░░░ Goldman Sachs and all ░░░░░░░░ well sir you have ░░░░░░░░ very great great day ░░░░░░░░ a great weekend and ░░░░░░░░ know it s Mother ░░░░░░░░ Day on Sunday and ░░░░░░░░ that so people talk ░░░░░░░░ I forgot yeah very ░░░░░░░░ thank you well thank ░░░░░░░░ for tuning in you ░░░░░░░░ follow all of my ░░░░░░░░ over at Tom Luongo ░░░░░░░░ Emmie can also follow ░░░░░░░░ on Twitter at tal ░░░░░░░░ ate or gab when ░░░░░░░░ decide to actually check ░░░░░░░░ same username you can ░░░░░░░░ gold goats and guns ░░░░░░░░ through PayPal patreon there ░░░░░░░░ be links down below ░░░░░░░░ the description to this ░░░░░░░░ thank you again for ░░░░░░░░ in and we will ░░░░░░░░ to you soon be ░░░░░░░░ and keep your stick ░░░░░░░░ the ice Music you ░░░░░░░░