RUSH TRANSCRIPT Neil So ░░░░░░░░ the slow down and ░░░░░░░░ shut down we re ░░░░░░░░ to give you the ░░░░░░░░ down We have Chris ░░░░░░░░ joining us Katherine Rooney ░░░░░░░░ Lee Munson Lee begin ░░░░░░░░ you What is dominating ░░░░░░░░ thinking right now as ░░░░░░░░ continue to trade you ░░░░░░░░ at the shut down ░░░░░░░░ you get hopeful when ░░░░░░░░ hear about a vote ░░░░░░░░ the Senate Thursday What ░░░░░░░░ you through Well I ░░░░░░░░ hopeful about a lot ░░░░░░░░ things I m an ░░░░░░░░ I try to figure ░░░░░░░░ how things the first ░░░░░░░░ is remember all this ░░░░░░░░ damage that we knew ░░░░░░░░ was going to be ░░░░░░░░ It s been soft ░░░░░░░░ now you can get ░░░░░░░░ 30 year fixed at ░░░░░░░░ price last spring So ░░░░░░░░ s about a half ░░░░░░░░ percent once the shut ░░░░░░░░ comes to fruition by ░░░░░░░░ lagging that we were ░░░░░░░░ talking about that that ░░░░░░░░ get done Also I ░░░░░░░░ t care about the ░░░░░░░░ monetary fund bringing down ░░░░░░░░ growth from 3 7 ░░░░░░░░ 3 5 a positive ░░░░░░░░ 5 My hope and ░░░░░░░░ know this sounds all ░░░░░░░░ would love to see ░░░░░░░░ panic more and get ░░░░░░░░ market to come down ░░░░░░░░ s where I m ░░░░░░░░ buyer Fundamentally where the ░░░░░░░░ bad earnings It s ░░░░░░░░ through Housing starts it ░░░░░░░░ not a disaster You ░░░░░░░░ buy this weakness Neil ░░░░░░░░ the shut down gets ░░░░░░░░ the way of closing ░░░░░░░░ loans because of the ░░░░░░░░ that back as lot ░░░░░░░░ these loans The sba ░░░░░░░░ big lender to small ░░░░░░░░ medium size businesses that ░░░░░░░░ stymied and hurting the ░░░░░░░░ guys Do you worry ░░░░░░░░ shut down that most ░░░░░░░░ are kind of properly ░░░░░░░░ the beginning dismiss Maybe ░░░░░░░░ so much now Let ░░░░░░░░ look at the numbers ░░░░░░░░ Just very easy When ░░░░░░░░ audience hears economists say ░░░░░░░░ will shave off X ░░░░░░░░ a simple calculation 20 ░░░░░░░░ GDP is government spending ░░░░░░░░ which 20 is unfunded ░░░░░░░░ now So it s ░░░░░░░░ partial government shut down ░░░░░░░░ does have an impact ░░░░░░░░ my own calculation Neil ░░░░░░░░ take one percentage point ░░░░░░░░ of GDP if it ░░░░░░░░ the entirety of the ░░░░░░░░ so the duration of ░░░░░░░░ shut down is going ░░░░░░░░ be the main influence ░░░░░░░░ how much this affects ░░░░░░░░ Government spending is still ░░░░░░░░ big portion of the ░░░░░░░░ As I said 20 ░░░░░░░░ it s big What ░░░░░░░░ m most scared about ░░░░░░░░ the self fulfilling prophecies ░░░░░░░░ agree with the last ░░░░░░░░ This combination of negative ░░░░░░░░ continue to weigh on ░░░░░░░░ sentiment you can have ░░░░░░░░ following happen Self fulfilling ░░░░░░░░ Guys get scared and ░░░░░░░░ I m not going ░░░░░░░░ buy the house or ░░░░░░░░ car and that slows ░░░░░░░░ economic activity That s ░░░░░░░░ I m starting to ░░░░░░░░ cautious The numbers are ░░░░░░░░ I agree it s ░░░░░░░░ opportunity to buy because ░░░░░░░░ market fall is based ░░░░░░░░ fear Chris one of ░░░░░░░░ things that people had ░░░░░░░░ getting ahead of themselves ░░░░░░░░ market the start of ░░░░░░░░ to February has been ░░░░░░░░ strong Through the shut ░░░░░░░░ we ve had double ░░░░░░░░ advances in all the ░░░░░░░░ averages So obviously they ░░░░░░░░ looking at this Chris ░░░░░░░░ saying we can deal ░░░░░░░░ this Can you Absolutely ░░░░░░░░ is where the rubber ░░░░░░░░ the road Trade a ░░░░░░░░ 7 million contracts every ░░░░░░░░ One contract covers 130 ░░░░░░░░ of stocks So people ░░░░░░░░ to be wondering where ░░░░░░░░ the bottom how can ░░░░░░░░ get out This is ░░░░░░░░ this place is here ░░░░░░░░ stock market is closed ░░░░░░░░ you the futures markets ░░░░░░░░ to go We ll ░░░░░░░░ all night long I ░░░░░░░░ t think we had ░░░░░░░░ days in a row ░░░░░░░░ we rallied Close to ░░░░░░░░ So today we dropped ░░░░░░░░ points in the S ░░░░░░░░ That is not that ░░░░░░░░ of a percentage drop ░░░░░░░░ can drop further and ░░░░░░░░ be but I think ░░░░░░░░ s what people didn ░░░░░░░░ like today is the ░░░░░░░░ that we made have ░░░░░░░░ hit a bump in ░░░░░░░░ trade negotiations with China ░░░░░░░░ 1 and also you ░░░░░░░░ us turn lower after ░░░░░░░░ housing information came out ░░░░░░░░ Quickly Another factor is ░░░░░░░░ on again off again ░░░░░░░░ Maybe the talks aren ░░░░░░░░ going to happen or ░░░░░░░░ s a fit between ░░░░░░░░ and Beijing Seems like ░░░░░░░░ talks are on People ░░░░░░░░ optimistic a deal can ░░░░░░░░ had Are you I ░░░░░░░░ optimistic Here s the ░░░░░░░░ We already know that ░░░░░░░░ was soft last year ░░░░░░░░ own economy was down ░░░░░░░░ 20 30 So this ░░░░░░░░ t really new news ░░░░░░░░ only policy thing I ░░░░░░░░ about in the White ░░░░░░░░ is a trade deal ░░░░░░░░ China You know what ░░░░░░░░ my old friend Larry ░░░░░░░░ is in there He ░░░░░░░░ a great statesman great ░░░░░░░░ Near in the back ░░░░░░░░ trying to figure out ░░░░░░░░ we can get a ░░░░░░░░ with China and make ░░░░░░░░ look good to the ░░░░░░░░ S People So I ░░░░░░░░ a lot of confidence ░░░░░░░░ can t just put ░░░░░░░░ a wall between trade ░░░░░░░░ China It ridiculous So ░░░░░░░░ I said if this ░░░░░░░░ as few more months ░░░░░░░░ this causes more uncertainty ░░░░░░░░ me better prices to ░░░░░░░░ for my clients Neil ░░░░░░░░ ll watch closely.