Steve Kornacki: Kyrsten Sinema Is in the Best Position a Dem Has Been in 30 Years in Arizona

BARNICLE I m struck ░░░░░░░░ at least three themes ░░░░░░░░ seem to be consistent ░░░░░░░░ every one of the ░░░░░░░░ we ve held thus ░░░░░░░░ this year Volatility turnout ░░░░░░░░ Trump KORNACKI Yeah Talk ░░░░░░░░ the Trump and volatility ░░░░░░░░ too in Arizona It ░░░░░░░░ like and it is ░░░░░░░░ won this thing resoundingly ░░░░░░░░ if you show those ░░░░░░░░ again and you add ░░░░░░░░ the Kelli Ward and ░░░░░░░░ Arpaio vote you re ░░░░░░░░ to 50 percent We ░░░░░░░░ see with all those ░░░░░░░░ exactly how close they ░░░░░░░░ there I think one ░░░░░░░░ the other stories that ░░░░░░░░ emerging here is there ░░░░░░░░ some mystery around the ░░░░░░░░ of why was Joe ░░░░░░░░ in his race in ░░░░░░░░ first place At 86 ░░░░░░░░ old he just got ░░░░░░░░ last year you can ░░░░░░░░ it s 47 48 ░░░░░░░░ right there if you ░░░░░░░░ it up right now ░░░░░░░░ a considerable amount to ░░░░░░░░ in There are some ░░░░░░░░ right now that one ░░░░░░░░ the reasons Arpaio might ░░░░░░░░ gotten in this race ░░░░░░░░ there might have been ░░░░░░░░ folks around him who ░░░░░░░░ on that Trump side ░░░░░░░░ the party who were ░░░░░░░░ with Kelli Ward So ░░░░░░░░ you basically did you ░░░░░░░░ a perfect split almost ░░░░░░░░ down the middle of ░░░░░░░░ Trump wing of the ░░░░░░░░ right there that allows ░░░░░░░░ to come up and ░░░░░░░░ It is It s ░░░░░░░░ 24 point margin over ░░░░░░░░ but if you break ░░░░░░░░ in another way the ░░░░░░░░ wing versus the non ░░░░░░░░ wing you are almost ░░░░░░░░ 50 50 right there ░░░░░░░░ biggest factor I think ░░░░░░░░ this race for McSally ░░░░░░░░ have been that Arpaio ░░░░░░░░ in this race split ░░░░░░░░ Trump vote very well ░░░░░░░░ I ve got to ░░░░░░░░ looking ahead to the ░░░░░░░░ election Arizona look it ░░░░░░░░ been 30 years since ░░░░░░░░ elected a Democrat to ░░░░░░░░ U S Senate The ░░░░░░░░ recent poll that we ░░░░░░░░ up there take it ░░░░░░░░ what it s worth ░░░░░░░░ Sinema up 4 points ░░░░░░░░ McSally So maybe walking ░░░░░░░░ that general election there ░░░░░░░░ s certainly the best ░░░░░░░░ a Democrat s been ░░░░░░░░ 30 years SCARBOROUGH It ░░░░░░░░ certainly hard to project ░░░░░░░░ now Steve but in ░░░░░░░░ Florida governor s race ░░░░░░░░ it s going to ░░░░░░░░ one that s going ░░░░░░░░ be really closely watched ░░░░░░░░ the country Right now ░░░░░░░░ would you put as ░░░░░░░░ early favorite in that ░░░░░░░░ KORNACKI Somebody believe it ░░░░░░░░ not two polls this ░░░░░░░░ have been taken in ░░░░░░░░ match up of Gillum ░░░░░░░░ DeSantis a very unlikely ░░░░░░░░ up The most recent ░░░░░░░░ I think has been ░░░░░░░░ weeks ago it was ░░░░░░░░ 36 Gillum over DeSantis ░░░░░░░░ think basically you look ░░░░░░░░ the very close ties ░░░░░░░░ very close association DeSantis ░░░░░░░░ with Trump and Democrats ░░░░░░░░ that is the thing ░░░░░░░░ s ultimately going to ░░░░░░░░ the day for them ░░░░░░░░ 2018 Look in 2014 ░░░░░░░░ 2010 Democrats were close ░░░░░░░░ winning the governorship very ░░░░░░░░ to winning the governorship ░░░░░░░░ Florida But what did ░░░░░░░░ have in 2014 2010 ░░░░░░░░ had midterm environments that ░░░░░░░░ very friendly to the ░░░░░░░░ Party Democrats would say ░░░░░░░░ look we were close ░░░░░░░░ 2010 close in 2014 ░░░░░░░░ you ve got a ░░░░░░░░ Scott like candidate in ░░░░░░░░ but you throw in ░░░░░░░░ very different midterm climate ░░░░░░░░ that Trump baggage Democrats ░░░░░░░░ say is going to ░░░░░░░░ the difference for them ░░░░░░░░ will say Hey look ░░░░░░░░ far to the left ░░░░░░░░ Gillum and also I ░░░░░░░░ the wild card here ░░░░░░░░ have to say is ░░░░░░░░ was talking about Gillum ░░░░░░░░ 24 hours ago We ░░░░░░░░ find out a lot ░░░░░░░░ him I think that ░░░░░░░░ was saying before.”