Hanson: Trump Made a Credible Threat to Turn the Hermit Kingdom into Smoking Rubble

Abby All right take ░░░░░░░░ away Griff Well here ░░░░░░░░ react to the latest ░░░░░░░░ we ve got a ░░░░░░░░ foreign policy panel A ░░░░░░░░ CIA analyst who covered ░░░░░░░░ David worked in the ░░░░░░░░ Department under President Obama ░░░░░░░░ Reagan assistant undersecretary of ░░░░░░░░ Michael Pillsbury and security ░░░░░░░░ president Jim Hanson led ░░░░░░░░ counterterrorism operations while serve ░░░░░░░░ the U S Army ░░░░░░░░ special forces Thank you ░░░░░░░░ for being here Dr ░░░░░░░░ you were at the ░░░░░░░░ you covered the North ░░░░░░░░ portfolio At this moment ░░░░░░░░ are both the U ░░░░░░░░ And North Korea trying ░░░░░░░░ achieve here Well the ░░░░░░░░ S obviously our goal ░░░░░░░░ complete irreversible denuclearization but ░░░░░░░░ President Trump could walk ░░░░░░░░ from this meeting with ░░░░░░░░ commitment from Kim Jong ░░░░░░░░ to denuclearize and have ░░░░░░░░ timeline achieved for implementation ░░░░░░░░ begin because you have ░░░░░░░░ remember North Koreans have ░░░░░░░░ a lot of agreements ░░░░░░░░ the past but it ░░░░░░░░ inaudible And of course ░░░░░░░░ North Korea there are ░░░░░░░░ couple of things that ░░░░░░░░ want They want some ░░░░░░░░ of different security relationship ░░░░░░░░ the United States so ░░░░░░░░ might ask for a ░░░░░░░░ treaty to formally end ░░░░░░░░ Korean war And if ░░░░░░░░ can get some kind ░░░░░░░░ economic investment deal or ░░░░░░░░ from sanctions Pete Dr ░░░░░░░░ ing of those options ░░░░░░░░ seems the most likely ░░░░░░░░ come out of this ░░░░░░░░ soft options or what ░░░░░░░░ would call the fluffy ░░░░░░░░ where we give the ░░░░░░░░ of peace and continue ░░░░░░░░ next meeting in the ░░░░░░░░ House or mar rah ░░░░░░░░ duo The tough objection ░░░░░░░░ a Lago I think ░░░░░░░░ knows the details of ░░░░░░░░ chairman Kim reveal how ░░░░░░░░ nuclear weapons does he ░░░░░░░░ what kind are they ░░░░░░░░ or plutonium and where ░░░░░░░░ they located And how ░░░░░░░░ the process of dismantlement ░░░░░░░░ This is the tough ░░░░░░░░ where I suspect President ░░░░░░░░ is willing to walk ░░░░░░░░ if he doesn t ░░░░░░░░ some indication on these ░░░░░░░░ secret matters from chairman ░░░░░░░░ Pete Jim we ve ░░░░░░░░ some intelligence on North ░░░░░░░░ but they re famously ░░░░░░░░ There s known knowns ░░░░░░░░ s known unknowns How ░░░░░░░░ we verify let alone ░░░░░░░░ that any deal we ░░░░░░░░ will actually happen That ░░░░░░░░ why President Trump walk ░░░░░░░░ saying he wants to ░░░░░░░░ the measure of Kim ░░░░░░░░ UN He s going ░░░░░░░░ figure out if this ░░░░░░░░ a guy he can ░░░░░░░░ do a deal with ░░░░░░░░ we dig into any ░░░░░░░░ that And I think ░░░░░░░░ all of this there ░░░░░░░░ a reason this summit ░░░░░░░░ happening and that s ░░░░░░░░ President Trump made a ░░░░░░░░ threat to turn the ░░░░░░░░ kingdom into smoking rubble ░░░░░░░░ they did not denuclearize ░░░░░░░░ they can come to ░░░░░░░░ table they can make ░░░░░░░░ deal that s advantageous ░░░░░░░░ they get some of ░░░░░░░░ soft options and prizes ░░░░░░░░ they have to be ░░░░░░░░ to allow the verification ░░░░░░░░ I think it s ░░░░░░░░ to remember the pressure ░░░░░░░░ on them not on ░░░░░░░░ Pete David you worked ░░░░░░░░ the Obama Administration as ░░░░░░░░ Obviously both administrations want ░░░░░░░░ denuclearized north Korea The ░░░░░░░░ is the previous administration ░░░░░░░░ strategic patience this administration ░░░░░░░░ said we re going ░░░░░░░░ maximum pressure Is there ░░░░░░░░ acknowledgment that maybe it ░░░░░░░░ maximum pressure to make ░░░░░░░░ happen Well Trump and ░░░░░░░░ of state Pompeo deserve ░░░░░░░░ hot of credit for ░░░░░░░░ a lot of credit ░░░░░░░░ making this summit happen ░░░░░░░░ the margin of error ░░░░░░░░ is very small That ░░░░░░░░ because President Trump has ░░░░░░░░ find a way to ░░░░░░░░ just enough to Kim ░░░░░░░░ UN that he s ░░░░░░░░ to consider delahrizing giving ░░░░░░░░ his security blanket but ░░░░░░░░ can t give too ░░░░░░░░ that he s going ░░░░░░░░ further cement Kim Jong ░░░░░░░░ as the world s ░░░░░░░░ reclusive authoritarian dictator And ░░░░░░░░ s why this discussion ░░░░░░░░ negotiation is so difficult ░░░░░░░░ m optimistic that something ░░░░░░░░ will come out of ░░░░░░░░ but we really don ░░░░░░░░ know because of just ░░░░░░░░ difficult the task is ░░░░░░░░ let s just hope ░░░░░░░░ enough happens in terms ░░░░░░░░ dialogue that there ll ░░░░░░░░ another meeting and we ░░░░░░░░ move forward on a ░░░░░░░░ real peace agreement Pete ░░░░░░░░ Terry you know so ░░░░░░░░ as President Trump has ░░░░░░░░ that first minute those ░░░░░░░░ few moments could dictate ░░░░░░░░ lot As somebody who ░░░░░░░░ studied the Kim Jong ░░░░░░░░ regime there what kind ░░░░░░░░ reaction will he likely ░░░░░░░░ Is he going to ░░░░░░░░ stoic Is he going ░░░░░░░░ be you know someone ░░░░░░░░ loved on Dennis rodman ░░░░░░░░ Will he be star ░░░░░░░░ What do you see ░░░░░░░░ those first moments I ░░░░░░░░ think there s going ░░░░░░░░ be a good chemistry ░░░░░░░░ Kim Jong UN and ░░░░░░░░ President Trump If you ░░░░░░░░ seen Kim Jong UN ░░░░░░░░ behavior when he met ░░░░░░░░ the Chinese president twice ░░░░░░░░ s very different from ░░░░░░░░ father He s not ░░░░░░░░ introverted he s more ░░░░░░░░ gregarious touchy feely and ░░░░░░░░ think the optics is ░░░░░░░░ to look fine Pete ░░░░░░░░ Pillsbury you ve got ░░░░░░░░ optics and then you ░░░░░░░░ the tens of thousands ░░░░░░░░ political prisoners and folks ░░░░░░░░ in order to maintain ░░░░░░░░ regime Can he give ░░░░░░░░ his nukes and stay ░░░░░░░░ power It s a ░░░░░░░░ risk for him We ░░░░░░░░ he kills people because ░░░░░░░░ disagree with him Just ░░░░░░░░ take you behind the ░░░░░░░░ Pete I think what ░░░░░░░░ sides know in that ░░░░░░░░ room is the three ░░░░░░░░ in the past of ░░░░░░░░ It s nothing to ░░░░░░░░ with north Korea The ░░░░░░░░ models are elsewhere South ░░░░░░░░ Ukraine and Libya Both ░░░░░░░░ know and the Trump ░░░░░░░░ has been reaching out ░░░░░░░░ the past few months ░░░░░░░░ understand exactly what happened ░░░░░░░░ all three cases In ░░░░░░░░ South Africa case they ░░░░░░░░ their dismantled their nuclear ░░░░░░░░ then brought the inspectors ░░░░░░░░ three years later The ░░░░░░░░ two models are also ░░░░░░░░ This has got very ░░░░░░░░ to do with North ░░░░░░░░ as such it s ░░░░░░░░ to do with the ░░░░░░░░ of how you detect ░░░░░░░░ dismantle in some cases ░░░░░░░░ or blend uranium It ░░░░░░░░ quite complicated And this ░░░░░░░░ what President Trump will ░░░░░░░░ looking for on that ░░░░░░░░ day Pete Absolutely sir ░░░░░░░░ right now as we ░░░░░░░░ this we re looking ░░░░░░░░ live pictures from Singapore ░░░░░░░░ re awaiting the president ░░░░░░░░ the United States to ░░░░░░░░ on air force one ░░░░░░░░ that happens of course ░░░░░░░░ will bring it to ░░░░░░░░ as it happens Jim ░░░░░░░░ me go to you ░░░░░░░░ well Someone who s ░░░░░░░░ time in that region ░░░░░░░░ understands the level of ░░░░░░░░ threat there How much ░░░░░░░░ do regional partners have ░░░░░░░░ this meeting It s ░░░░░░░░ in Singapore China obviously ░░░░░░░░ to this regime Is ░░░░░░░░ invested Do they believe ░░░░░░░░ a scenario where North ░░░░░░░░ gives up their nuclear ░░░░░░░░ or are they hoping ░░░░░░░░ preserve a strategic deterrent ░░░░░░░░ North Korea Again nothing ░░░░░░░░ going to happen Pete ░░░░░░░░ China agreeing to it ░░░░░░░░ I think if they ░░░░░░░░ t buy in it ░░░░░░░░ t happen I think ░░░░░░░░ now there s a ░░░░░░░░ where there s enough ░░░░░░░░ internally in north Korea ░░░░░░░░ maybe it s just ░░░░░░░░ to stop this major ░░░░░░░░ that s been going ░░░░░░░░ and this wildcard in ░░░░░░░░ region So I think ░░░░░░░░ possibility exists And I ░░░░░░░░ everybody s aware that ░░░░░░░░ that plane with Donald ░░░░░░░░ is his new national ░░░░░░░░ a visor John Bolton ░░░░░░░░ John Bolton who is ░░░░░░░░ about to put up ░░░░░░░░ a bunch of bologna ░░░░░░░░ idea that they re ░░░░░░░░ to pull away the ░░░░░░░░ from Charlie brown ain ░░░░░░░░ happening time I think ░░░░░░░░ s going to be ░░░░░░░░ serious negotiation and if ░░░░░░░░ don t play straight ░░░░░░░░ can be assured that ░░░░░░░░ United States will not ░░░░░░░░ trifled with Pete Interesting ░░░░░░░░ view a that we ░░░░░░░░ follow through on our ░░░░░░░░ overhangs this entire discussion ░░░░░░░░ sure David let me ░░░░░░░░ to you As a ░░░░░░░░ foreign policy adviser to ░░░░░░░░ Obama do you does ░░░░░░░░ left generally not to ░░░░░░░░ but do they have ░░░░░░░░ do people who are ░░░░░░░░ Trump supporters have faith ░░░░░░░░ inside that room he ░░░░░░░░ make the right calls ░░░░░░░░ put America first that ░░░░░░░░ denuclearize that peninsula or ░░░░░░░░ there skepticism that he ░░░░░░░░ winging it Well I ░░░░░░░░ not going to speak ░░░░░░░░ behalf of the left ░░░░░░░░ what I will say ░░░░░░░░ someone who sometimes criticizes ░░░░░░░░ Trump and his foreign ░░░░░░░░ we re simply not ░░░░░░░░ Some of the things ░░░░░░░░ Donald Trump has said ░░░░░░░░ t give you confidence ░░░░░░░░ said he doesn t ░░░░░░░░ to prepare for this ░░░░░░░░ is a really strange ░░░░░░░░ to say If you ░░░░░░░░ going to get heart ░░░░░░░░ would you want to ░░░░░░░░ the doctor who said ░░░░░░░░ don t think I ░░░░░░░░ to prepare for this ░░░░░░░░ mean lives are at ░░░░░░░░ just in this situation ░░░░░░░░ as when you go ░░░░░░░░ a surgery As you ░░░░░░░░ there are tens of ░░░░░░░░ of people who died ░░░░░░░░ North Korea the people ░░░░░░░░ North Korea are starving ░░░░░░░░ is a vicious dictator ░░░░░░░░ we don t know ░░░░░░░░ about him except we ░░░░░░░░ know that he wants ░░░░░░░░ stay in power We ░░░░░░░░ know that this is ░░░░░░░░ to be a very ░░░░░░░░ negotiation so we need ░░░░░░░░ president who is fully ░░░░░░░░ for Pete Maybe a ░░░░░░░░ Laughter And who doesn ░░░░░░░░ overestimate what he s ░░░░░░░░ into He s coming ░░░░░░░░ of the G7 summit ░░░░░░░░ did not go all ░░░░░░░░ well But I remain ░░░░░░░░ Pete Of course it ░░░░░░░░ depend on what you ░░░░░░░░ the outcome of a ░░░░░░░░ should look like and ░░░░░░░░ ll have a different ░░░░░░░░ than a globalist like ░░░░░░░░ Obama would Dr Terry ░░░░░░░░ attitude portion he said ░░░░░░░░ I prepare differently I ░░░░░░░░ been preparing my entire ░░░░░░░░ You can have policy ░░░░░░░░ and positions but if ░░░░░░░░ fold in the room ░░░░░░░░ you don t you ░░░░░░░░ not the strong persona ░░░░░░░░ need to be then ░░░░░░░░ Jong UN and China ░░░░░░░░ may not respect you ░░░░░░░░ much as they should ░░░░░░░░ much will attitude and ░░░░░░░░ of who s in ░░░░░░░░ matter in this meeting ░░░░░░░░ think that does matter ░░░░░░░░ example when President Trump ░░░░░░░░ cancel that meeting summit ░░░░░░░░ Kim Jong UN earlier ░░░░░░░░ Koreans came back in ░░░░░░░░ hours with their own ░░░░░░░░ sort of you know ░░░░░░░░ we need to get ░░░░░░░░ to the meeting And ░░░░░░░░ praising President Trump So ░░░░░░░░ do think it matters ░░░░░░░░ President Trump is playing ░░░░░░░░ game too that he ░░░░░░░░ be as unpredictable as ░░░░░░░░ Jong UN North Koreans ░░░░░░░░ used to getting away ░░░░░░░░ everything because there s ░░░░░░░░ a predictability coming out ░░░░░░░░ Washington so I do ░░░░░░░░ it matters President Pete ░░░░░░░░ it allows bad actors ░░░░░░░░ continue to exploit that ░░░░░░░░ Dr Pillsbury briefly is ░░░░░░░░ a historical analogy to ░░░░░░░░ situation we re in ░░░░░░░░ now a moment that ░░░░░░░░ like this moment Well ░░░░░░░░ was the moment when ░░░░░░░░ Ukraine they knew today ░░░░░░░░ more than a hundred ░░░░░░░░ weapons on missiles and ░░░░░░░░ wanted to try to ░░░░░░░░ the nuclear material to ░░░░░░░░ U S And get ░░░░░░░░ to actually dismantle their ░░░░░░░░ send everything back to ░░░░░░░░ Soviet Union at the ░░░░░░░░ And secretary of state ░░░░░░░░ baker had to make ░░░░░░░░ really tough decision whether ░░░░░░░░ go for that kind ░░░░░░░░ deal or not He ░░░░░░░░ went for it it ░░░░░░░░ a success All the ░░░░░░░░ missiles were withdrawn from ░░░░░░░░ So this is one ░░░░░░░░ the models I think ░░░░░░░░ both the Chinese and ░░░░░░░░ Koreans are thinking about ░░░░░░░░ will these weapons go ░░░░░░░░ you know Pete at ░░░░░░░░ moment of maximum danger ░░░░░░░░ when chairman Kim tells ░░░░░░░░ okay this is where ░░░░░░░░ weapons are here s ░░░░░░░░ many At that moment ░░░░░░░░ U S Military can ░░░░░░░░ those weapons and destroy ░░░░░░░░ Pete Sure So the ░░░░░░░░ view of the Chinese ░░░░░░░░ North Koreans that s ░░░░░░░░ last thing they want ░░░░░░░░ do Pete Yep But ░░░░░░░░ Mr Trump s point ░░░░░░░░ view that s the ░░░░░░░░ thing he needs to ░░░░░░░░ Pete And how to ░░░░░░░░ verify it What a ░░░░░░░░ panel Perfect group of ░░░░░░░░ to talk to Thank ░░░░░░░░ all for joining us ░░░░░░░░ ll continue to watch ░░░░░░░░ news live I m ░░░░░░░░ we ll be talking ░░░░░░░░ a few of you ░░░░░░░░ the coming days Thank ░░░░░░░░ for your time appreciate ░░░░░░░░