RUSH TRANSCRIPT We re ░░░░░░░░ to be announcing next ░░░░░░░░ I think sometime Scott ░░░░░░░░ howard and everybody we ░░░░░░░░ be announcing the head ░░░░░░░░ the Fed who that ░░░░░░░░ be and it ll ░░░░░░░░ a person that will ░░░░░░░░ think do a good ░░░░░░░░ Larry all right there ░░░░░░░░ go wait until next ░░░░░░░░ Some of us thought ░░░░░░░░ was coming today Anyway ░░░░░░░░ welcome Doug holtz eakin ░░░░░░░░ action forum president he ░░░░░░░░ former cbo director and ░░░░░░░░ kerper unleash prosperity principal ░░░░░░░░ whose your pick for ░░░░░░░░ chair go ahead take ░░░░░░░░ wack at it Well ░░░░░░░░ hope it ll be ░░░░░░░░ of the kevins They ░░░░░░░░ clearly separated themselves from ░░░░░░░░ pack in terms of ░░░░░░░░ of a supply side ░░░░░░░░ park approach you and ░░░░░░░░ would like Larry I ░░░░░░░░ a little worried it ░░░░░░░░ be rick reider the ░░░░░░░░ markets favor him and ░░░░░░░░ giving history corey booker ░░░░░░░░ Haley et cetera so ░░░░░░░░ ll see Eye got ░░░░░░░░ fingers crossed it s ░░░░░░░░ of the kevins Larry ░░░░░░░░ holtz eakin were you ░░░░░░░░ the kevins camp I ░░░░░░░░ in the kevins camp ░░░░░░░░ I guess I would ░░░░░░░░ Kevin Warsh slightly above ░░░░░░░░ kevin hasse because we ░░░░░░░░ keep him at the ░░░░░░░░ Larry you can t ░░░░░░░░ wrong with the two ░░░░░░░░ Doug holtz eakin different ░░░░░░░░ We got numbers out ░░░░░░░░ on productivity fantastic numbers ░░░░░░░░ to be continued This ░░░░░░░░ a proud led expansion ░░░░░░░░ here is the thing ░░░░░░░░ labor costs it s ░░░░░░░░ for cost of labor ░░░░░░░░ minus productivity unit labor ░░░░░░░░ it s a proxy ░░░░░░░░ inflation 1 3 for ░░░░░░░░ farm and 1 2 ░░░░░░░░ non financial These are ░░░░░░░░ numbers Doug I think ░░░░░░░░ would agree Phil I ░░░░░░░░ get to you on ░░░░░░░░ second these are numbers ░░░░░░░░ show there s profits ░░░░░░░░ and virtually no inflation ░░░░░░░░ don t know why ░░░░░░░░ Federal Reserve doesn t ░░░░░░░░ account of that Doug ░░░░░░░░ I certainly hope they ░░░░░░░░ That be 101 that ░░░░░░░░ keep track of this ░░░░░░░░ if you ve got ░░░░░░░░ worker making more that ░░░░░░░░ the productivity growth those ░░░░░░░░ wages are being spread ░░░░░░░░ more units of sale ░░░░░░░░ means you don t ░░░░░░░░ to pass along as ░░░░░░░░ wage costs and the ░░░░░░░░ that s disinflationary and ░░░░░░░░ anti inflation and that ░░░░░░░░ what you want to ░░░░░░░░ for and as you ░░░░░░░░ Larry we ve been ░░░░░░░░ at these regulatory costs ░░░░░░░░ a long long time ░░░░░░░░ I thought this was ░░░░░░░░ real bright spot in ░░░░░░░░ first term in office ░░░░░░░░ had great hopes for ░░░░░░░░ would happen this time ░░░░░░░░ add that to the ░░░░░░░░ of investments and get ░░░░░░░░ deepening and start to ░░░░░░░░ the recipe for a ░░░░░░░░ productivity boom like economists ░░░░░░░░ t know how to ░░░░░░░░ productivity grow really but ░░░░░░░░ know the environment in ░░░░░░░░ it has grown Low ░░░░░░░░ broad bases light regulatory ░░░░░░░░ you know reliance on ░░░░░░░░ is the recipe I ░░░░░░░░ not a fan of ░░░░░░░░ tariffs We don t ░░░░░░░░ to go through that ░░░░░░░░ but outside of that ░░░░░░░░ is the playbook they ░░░░░░░░ running Larry I think ░░░░░░░░ lightening up of regulatory ░░░░░░░░ is probably underrated factor ░░░░░░░░ this whole story Phil ░░░░░░░░ s like when you ░░░░░░░░ about low unit labor ░░░░░░░░ really what you re ░░░░░░░░ is the production workers ░░░░░░░░ getting wages wage increases ░░░░░░░░ they are earning it ░░░░░░░░ are working hard they ░░░░░░░░ being efficient and earning ░░░░░░░░ wage increases Now the ░░░░░░░░ fed marked down a ░░░░░░░░ bit its fourth quarter ░░░░░░░░ 4 2 but basically ░░░░░░░░ here is the thing ░░░░░░░░ that number if you ░░░░░░░░ that number in even ░░░░░░░░ Biden s negative first ░░░░░░░░ Trump s first year ░░░░░░░░ be about 3 GDP ░░░░░░░░ which is a big ░░░░░░░░ Back in December when ░░░░░░░░ was first elected the ░░░░░░░░ Reserve said 1 7 ░░░░░░░░ in other words almost ░░░░░░░░ what the Federal Reserve ░░░░░░░░ That s why we ░░░░░░░░ a new fed chairman ░░░░░░░░ and that s why ░░░░░░░░ need to pay attention ░░░░░░░░ the factors Doug holtz ░░░░░░░░ was talking about This ░░░░░░░░ a boom backed by ░░░░░░░░ and productivity and the ░░░░░░░░ market as well but ░░░░░░░░ Fed doesn t acknowledge ░░░░░░░░ boom I mean you ░░░░░░░░ he didn t really ░░░░░░░░ about a boom The ░░░░░░░░ conference yesterday it was ░░░░░░░░ usual self Jay Powell ░░░░░░░░ I think its been ░░░░░░░░ you re absolutely right ░░░░░░░░ Look at these GDP ░░░░░░░░ with two gang buster ░░░░░░░░ and a third gang ░░░░░░░░ quarter in a row ░░░░░░░░ even if you look ░░░░░░░░ that Atlanta fed updated ░░░░░░░░ the headline number came ░░░░░░░░ a little but private ░░░░░░░░ have it up to ░░░░░░░░ in the fourth quarter ░░░░░░░░ be pretty remarkable and ░░░░░░░░ of what they did ░░░░░░░░ the big beautiful bill ░░░░░░░░ all the permanent cost ░░░░░░░░ provisions unleashing investment in ░░░░░░░░ economy and that of ░░░░░░░░ will lead to higher ░░░░░░░░ higher wages and a ░░░░░░░░ that s non inflationary ░░░░░░░░ are producing more so ░░░░░░░░ can afford to be ░░░░░░░░ more and I think ░░░░░░░░ we re about half ░░░░░░░░ out of the whole ░░░░░░░░ in terms of the ░░░░░░░░ purchasing power for the ░░░░░░░░ household we lost a ░░░░░░░░ over 3 000 under ░░░░░░░░ We gained back about ░░░░░░░░ in the first year ░░░░░░░░ Trump and we re ░░░░░░░░ the way out of ░░░░░░░░ hole sometime mid year ░░░░░░░░ I think psychology will ░░░░░░░░ much more positive on ░░░░░░░░ economy but look we ░░░░░░░░ got booming GDP and ░░░░░░░░ re doing it without ░░░░░░░░ a lot of labor ░░░░░░░░ we have constraints on ░░░░░░░░ labor supply and rotations ░░░░░░░░ on and we re ░░░░░░░░ it with productivity booming ░░░░░░░░ I think even more ░░░░░░░░ the numbers show right ░░░░░░░░ Larry the moral of ░░░░░░░░ story is we should ░░░░░░░░ be afraid of growth ░░░░░░░░ the second moral of ░░░░░░░░ story is we should ░░░░░░░░ a fed chair whose ░░░░░░░░ afraid of growth Growth ░░░░░░░░ not cause inflation when ░░░░░░░░ have policies like these ░░░░░░░░ and I love that ░░░░░░░░ deeping en Doug it ░░░░░░░░ a great term We ░░░░░░░░ in a boom we ░░░░░░░░ in a business equipment ░░░░░░░░ boom It s terrific ░░░░░░░░ Gentlemen thank you Doug ░░░░░░░░ eakin Phil Kerpen we ░░░░░░░░ it very much Coming ░░░░░░░░ we’ll go back to