Kevin Hassett: The U.S. Is Not in a Hiring Recession, Consumer Price Index Numbers Are Really Amazing

BRENNAN That report came ░░░░░░░░ It showed America added ░░░░░░░░ 000 jobs with unemployment ░░░░░░░░ up to 4 6 ░░░░░░░░ But we ve seen ░░░░░░░░ including from the top ░░░░░░░░ at U S Navy ░░░░░░░░ saying the U S ░░░░░░░░ in a quote hiring ░░░░░░░░ Very few jobs being ░░░░░░░░ since the spring and ░░░░░░░░ gains are slowing Are ░░░░░░░░ in a hiring recession ░░░░░░░░ No I don t ░░░░░░░░ so I think that ░░░░░░░░ the number was about ░░░░░░░░ the market expected It ░░░░░░░░ a number that was ░░░░░░░░ than 100 which is ░░░░░░░░ little bit lower than ░░░░░░░░ d like But then ░░░░░░░░ that we got the ░░░░░░░░ Price Index numbers which ░░░░░░░░ really amazing And so ░░░░░░░░ you look at the ░░░░░░░░ month moving average of ░░░░░░░░ consumer prices then they ░░░░░░░░ running at an annual ░░░░░░░░ of about 1 6 ░░░░░░░░ way below the Fed ░░░░░░░░ target And my old ░░░░░░░░ all the way back ░░░░░░░░ grad school Austan Goolsbee ░░░░░░░░ s now one of ░░░░░░░░ Fed governors voting on ░░░░░░░░ rates conceded that they ░░░░░░░░ have cut rates faster ░░░░░░░░ that he s going ░░░░░░░░ do so in the ░░░░░░░░ because of this inflation ░░░░░░░░ BRENNAN Right He was ░░░░░░░░ of the dissenters when ░░░░░░░░ Fed s decision came ░░░░░░░░ HASSETT Correct BRENNAN But ░░░░░░░░ it comes to inflation ░░░░░░░░ you just referred to ░░░░░░░░ number showed there was ░░░░░░░░ a rise in inflation ░░░░░░░░ was just at a ░░░░░░░░ pace than expected If ░░░░░░░░ pull out energy and ░░░░░░░░ out food it rose ░░░░░░░░ the slowest pace since ░░░░░░░░ up 2 6 percent ░░░░░░░░ November from a year ░░░░░░░░ But then there are ░░░░░░░░ in here because it ░░░░░░░░ like the prices weren ░░░░░░░░ gathered until Thanksgiving discounts ░░░░░░░░ in There was no ░░░░░░░░ reflected in terms of ░░░░░░░░ costs Why do you ░░░░░░░░ the data now when ░░░░░░░░ haven t in the ░░░░░░░░ HASSETT Oh you know ░░░░░░░░ think that you re ░░░░░░░░ to always be suspicious ░░░░░░░░ data And it will ░░░░░░░░ a lot cleaner when ░░░░░░░░ get a full survey ░░░░░░░░ we didn t have ░░░░░░░░ that time But you ░░░░░░░░ two of the three ░░░░░░░░ if we go back ░░░░░░░░ the three month moving ░░░░░░░░ were fine And so ░░░░░░░░ think that the error ░░░░░░░░ around the 1 6 ░░░░░░░░ inflation about that s ░░░░░░░░ the pace is running ░░░░░░░░ probably pretty tight Surely ░░░░░░░░ will be some revisions ░░░░░░░░ I think the numbers ░░░░░░░░ about right And I ░░░░░░░░ Margaret don t like ░░░░░░░░ go to year over ░░░░░░░░ when we re talking ░░░░░░░░ what s going on ░░░░░░░░ inflation because that includes ░░░░░░░░ lot of high inflation ░░░░░░░░ months in the back ░░░░░░░░ you know fewer and ░░░░░░░░ as we get you ░░░░░░░░ further into the year ░░░░░░░░ I think that the ░░░░░░░░ right now is best ░░░░░░░░ by the three month ░░░░░░░░ average And that s ░░░░░░░░ two below the Fed ░░░░░░░░ So it means the ░░░░░░░░ as Austan Goolsbee said ░░░░░░░░ plenty of room to ░░░░░░░░ rates.”