Rasmussen: Biggest Thing Helping the Democrats for the Mid Terms Is a Lot of the Republicans Are Retiring

RUSH TRANSCRIPT DOOCY Trey ░░░░░░░░ and other Republican congressmen ░░░░░░░░ this week that they ░░░░░░░░ not seek re election ░░░░░░░░ this year s midterms ░░░░░░░░ some concerns that the ░░░░░░░░ Party will have difficulty ░░░░░░░░ the Democrats from gaining ░░░░░░░░ seats necessary to take ░░░░░░░░ House Can the Republicans ░░░░░░░░ on Can they hold ░░░░░░░░ this says right here ░░░░░░░░ to break it all ░░░░░░░░ is pollster and editor ░░░░░░░░ large for Ballotpedia Scott ░░░░░░░░ Scott good morning to ░░░░░░░░ RASMUSSEN Good morning Steve ░░░░░░░░ is where we stand ░░░░░░░░ 238 Republicans 193 Democrats ░░░░░░░░ vacancies Can the Democrats ░░░░░░░░ Yes Can the Republicans ░░░░░░░░ on Yes Anybody who ░░░░░░░░ there is a certain ░░░░░░░░ at this point is ░░░░░░░░ ahead of the game ░░░░░░░░ All right let s ░░░░░░░░ to the first thing ░░░░░░░░ Biggest thing helping the ░░░░░░░░ right now a lot ░░░░░░░░ the Republicans like Trey ░░░░░░░░ are retiring 41 have ░░░░░░░░ up their jobs The ░░░░░░░░ that matters is that ░░░░░░░░ you are incumbent you ░░░░░░░░ more job security than ░░░░░░░░ tenured college professor When ░░░░░░░░ incumbent gives up his ░░░░░░░░ things happen Some of ░░░░░░░░ Gowdy s seat will ░░░░░░░░ Republican but when Frelinghuysen ░░░░░░░░ in the New Jersey ░░░░░░░░ 2011 that created a ░░░░░░░░ up in a race ░░░░░░░░ would have leaned Republican ░░░░░░░░ you have 15 competitive ░░░░░░░░ where Republicans have retired ░░░░░░░░ need 24 seats to ░░░░░░░░ control The average midterm ░░░░░░░░ for a party out ░░░░░░░░ power 26 DOOCY Okay ░░░░░░░░ that sounds bad for ░░░░░░░░ Republicans RASMUSSEN Well if ░░░░░░░░ look at the last ░░░░░░░░ midterms four times the ░░░░░░░░ in power has gained ░░░░░░░░ more than 24 seats ░░░░░░░░ times they have gained ░░░░░░░░ Twice once under Clinton ░░░░░░░░ once under President Bush ░░░░░░░░ party out of power ░░░░░░░░ lost ground So really ░░░░░░░░ s a toss up ░░░░░░░░ Okay so this is ░░░░░░░░ we are coming down ░░░░░░░░ right now Back at ░░░░░░░░ first of the year ░░░░░░░░ Democrats held close to ░░░░░░░░ 13 point advantage in ░░░░░░░░ generic who would you ░░░░░░░░ for for Congress a ░░░░░░░░ or Republican RASMUSSEN That ░░░░░░░░ right DOOCY Now it ░░░░░░░░ narrowing Brian was talking ░░░░░░░░ the Monmouth poll which ░░░░░░░░ them just 2 points ░░░░░░░░ It has got to ░░░░░░░░ the tax cut RASMUSSEN ░░░░░░░░ tax cut is the ░░░░░░░░ issue That helped boost ░░░░░░░░ enthusiasm And people don ░░░░░░░░ talk about this a ░░░░░░░░ There is a difference ░░░░░░░░ the way you feel ░░░░░░░░ the economy and the ░░░░░░░░ you feel about your ░░░░░░░░ finances It s the ░░░░░░░░ you feel about personal ░░░░░░░░ that drive your voting ░░░░░░░░ Getting a bigger paycheck ░░░░░░░░ a lot DOOCY I ░░░░░░░░ t tell you how ░░░░░░░░ people have emailed us ░░░░░░░░ have gotten my paycheck ░░░░░░░░ started withholding even though ░░░░░░░░ don t have until ░░░░░░░░ 15th More money in ░░░░░░░░ pocket RASMUSSEN This trend ░░░░░░░░ the one to watch ░░░░░░░░ keep gaining ground they ░░░░░░░░ a good midterm If ░░░░░░░░ it will be tough ░░░░░░░░ by race analysis if ░░░░░░░░ assume Democrats have a ░░░░░░░░ midterm turnout They would ░░░░░░░░ up 215 seats Republicans ░░░░░░░░ 220 Not quite there ░░░░░░░░ again this emphasizes how ░░░░░░░░ This would be like ░░░░░░░░ Sunday afternoon if we ░░░░░░░░ into the fourth quarter ░░░░░░░░ separated by a field ░░░░░░░░ That s what the ░░░░░░░░ looks like right now ░░░░░░░░ How come all these ░░░░░░░░ on TV are talking ░░░░░░░░ how the Republicans are ░░░░░░░░ to lose control of ░░░░░░░░ house RASMUSSEN Partly they ░░░░░░░░ making those comments when ░░░░░░░░ Republicans were down 13 ░░░░░░░░ in the generic ballot ░░░░░░░░ because they have convinced ░░░░░░░░ the tax cut is ░░░░░░░░ loser and somehow that ░░░░░░░░ going to be popular ░░░░░░░░ That s right it ░░░░░░░░ a loser People hate ░░░░░░░░ more money in their ░░░░░░░░