CNN’s Enten: Odds ‘Are Plummeting Down’ for Dems to Take Control of the House in 2026

BOLDUAN New this morning ░░░░░░░░ race to control the ░░░░░░░░ in the 2026 midterms ░░░░░░░░ taken a turn and ░░░░░░░░ brings with it a ░░░░░░░░ warning sign for Democrats ░░░░░░░░ Enten running the numbers ░░░░░░░░ this one and sneaking ░░░░░░░░ at the last minute ░░░░░░░░ ENTEN I ve learned ░░░░░░░░ way around BOLDUAN That ░░░░░░░░ right It was a ░░░░░░░░ maneuver ENTEN Thank you ░░░░░░░░ I wish people could ░░░░░░░░ it ENTEN I have ░░░░░░░░ have fantastic news It ░░░░░░░░ the new shoes as ░░░░░░░░ spoke about yesterday BOLDUAN ░░░░░░░░ moving on OK you ░░░░░░░░ tracking the odds What ░░░░░░░░ the change that you ░░░░░░░░ seeing ENTEN Yeah OK ░░░░░░░░ you know if you ░░░░░░░░ back six months ago ░░░░░░░░ go back to April ░░░░░░░░ Bolduan what were we ░░░░░░░░ at Well we were ░░░░░░░░ at the Democrats with ░░░░░░░░ very clear shot of ░░░░░░░░ control of the U ░░░░░░░░ House of Representatives according ░░░░░░░░ the Kalshi Prediction Market ░░░░░░░░ We saw them at ░░░░░░░░ 83 percent chance But ░░░░░░░░ odds have gone plummeting ░░░░░░░░ Now we re talking ░░░░░░░░ just a 63 percent ░░░░░░░░ while the GOP s ░░░░░░░░ up like a rocket ░░░░░░░░ like gold up from ░░░░░░░░ percent to now a ░░░░░░░░ percent chance So what ░░░░░░░░ like a pretty clear ░░░░░░░░ likely Democratic win in ░░░░░░░░ House come next year ░░░░░░░░ become much closer to ░░░░░░░░ toss up at this ░░░░░░░░ although still slightly leaning ░░░░░░░░ BOLDUAN What s changed ░░░░░░░░ do you think ENTEN ░░░░░░░░ what has changed Well ░░░░░░░░ Don t We just ░░░░░░░░ a look at the ░░░░░░░░ picture first take a ░░░░░░░░ at voters and how ░░░░░░░░ re feeling about things ░░░░░░░░ we can take a ░░░░░░░░ at the generic congressional ░░░░░░░░ And I want to ░░░░░░░░ a look and compare ░░░░░░░░ to 2017 and 2018 ░░░░░░░░ Because that s sort ░░░░░░░░ the baseline That was ░░░░░░░░ course the first Trump ░░░░░░░░ That was where Democrats ░░░░░░░░ sort of keeping pace ░░░░░░░░ go back to April ░░░░░░░░ at the generic congressional ░░░░░░░░ what you see You ░░░░░░░░ 3 Democrats in 2025 ░░░░░░░░ April you see 3 ░░░░░░░░ back in April of ░░░░░░░░ Now jump over to ░░░░░░░░ side of the screen ░░░░░░░░ happens Well the Democrats ░░░░░░░░ no longer keeping pace ░░░░░░░░ the pace that they ░░░░░░░░ setting back in 2017 ░░░░░░░░ 2018 You look back ░░░░░░░░ 2017 you saw that ░░░░░░░░ Democrats had leaped up ░░░░░░░░ an 8 point advantage ░░░░░░░░ remember covering this I ░░░░░░░░ a lot of folks ░░░░░░░░ myself saying you know ░░░░░░░░ Republicans look pretty decent ░░░░░░░░ now in terms of ░░░░░░░░ fact that they had ░░░░░░░░ House they had the ░░░░░░░░ they had the presidency ░░░░░░░░ things were likely going ░░░░░░░░ flip And I was ░░░░░░░░ for the same signs ░░░░░░░░ year The bottom line ░░░░░░░░ it hasn t happened ░░░░░░░░ Bolduan it hasn t ░░░░░░░░ Democrats have stayed basically ░░░░░░░░ they have fallen off ░░░░░░░░ pace Democrats were way ░░░░░░░░ ahead back in 2017 ░░░░░░░░ the generic congressional ballot ░░░░░░░░ now we re basically ░░░░░░░░ at Democrats ahead But ░░░░░░░░ they are so far ░░░░░░░░ back of the pace ░░░░░░░░ they set back there ░░░░░░░░ so I think what ░░░░░░░░ lot of folks are ░░░░░░░░ folks like myself are ░░░░░░░░ Wait a minute given ░░░░░░░░ we might be seeing ░░░░░░░░ redistricting is this 3 ░░░░░░░░ to be enough Kate ░░░░░░░░ BOLDUAN That s what ░░░░░░░░ was going to ask ░░░░░░░░ change from that cycle ░░░░░░░░ also this mid decade ░░░░░░░░ effort that we ve ░░░░░░░░ covering so much Add ░░░░░░░░ in and what do ░░░░░░░░ get ENTEN OK so ░░░░░░░░ add that and we ░░░░░░░░ a look at the ░░░░░░░░ picture but then we ░░░░░░░░ course taking a look ░░░░░░░░ the state legislators BOLDUAN ░░░░░░░░ ENTEN right they are ░░░░░░░░ changing things And there ░░░░░░░░ two things that are ░░░░░░░░ on here First off ░░░░░░░░ mid decade redistricting gains ░░░░░░░░ both sides max out ░░░░░░░░ this point there are ░░░░░░░░ Republican gains possible than ░░░░░░░░ gains Yes the Democrats ░░░░░░░░ try to counter a ░░░░░░░░ and a California but ░░░░░░░░ go along in the ░░░░░░░░ states and basically Democrats ░░░░░░░░ out of room where ░░░░░░░░ are able to gain ░░░░░░░░ gain and gain If ░░░░░░░░ sides max out we ░░░░░░░░ probably looking at a ░░░░░░░░ gain of 7 House ░░░░░░░░ That doesn t even ░░░░░░░░ into account the potential ░░░░░░░░ of the VRA that ░░░░░░░░ right now going to ░░░░░░░░ in front of the ░░░░░░░░ Court If you add ░░░░░░░░ in BOLDUAN Voting rights ░░░░░░░░ Voting Rights Act ENTEN ░░░░░░░░ could be looking at ░░░░░░░░ Yes exactly right The ░░░░░░░░ Rights Act If you ░░░░░░░░ that in then you ░░░░░░░░ be looking about adding ░░░░░░░░ 12 15 17 on ░░░░░░░░ of these 7 seats ░░░░░░░░ I think a lot ░░░░░░░░ folks like myself are ░░░░░░░░ at this we re ░░░░░░░░ Hey wait a minute ░░░░░░░░ national polls Democrats are ░░░░░░░░ gaining the way that ░░░░░░░░ expected Then you add ░░░░░░░░ the fact that the ░░░░░░░░ legislators are adding potentially ░░░░░░░░ GOP seats like they ░░░░░░░░ already done down in ░░░░░░░░ like they ve done ░░░░░░░░ Missouri And then you ░░░░░░░░ in the potential gutting ░░░░░░░░ the VRA And all ░░░░░░░░ a sudden it becomes ░░░░░░░░ more difficult for Democrats ░░░░░░░░ gain especially given that ░░░░░░░░ are not keeping up ░░░░░░░░ their 2017 and 2018 ░░░░░░░░ crosstalk BOLDUAN And as ░░░░░░░░ said that also makes ░░░░░░░░ difficult to compare it ░░░░░░░░ past examples in history ░░░░░░░░ this is such a ░░░░░░░░ new landscape we re ░░░░░░░░ at right ENTEN It ░░░░░░░░ a different new landscape ░░░░░░░░ we re not quite ░░░░░░░░ how much Democrats will ░░░░░░░░ to be ahead in ░░░░░░░░ National House Vote in ░░░░░░░░ to gain control BOLDUAN ░░░░░░░░ right Thank you Harry ░░░░░░░░ Thank you.”
BOLDUAN: “Sara?”