RUSH TRANSCRIPT Now it ░░░░░░░░ to look at the ░░░░░░░░ picture Jeffrey Cleveland senior ░░░░░░░░ chief economist at and ░░░░░░░░ got to see a ░░░░░░░░ of your thoughts on ░░░░░░░░ week That lives here ░░░░░░░░ a data day lose ░░░░░░░░ week I hope you ░░░░░░░░ you re gonna get ░░░░░░░░ rest over the weekend ░░░░░░░░ hydrated and other fun ░░░░░░░░ next week when the ░░░░░░░░ data points this this ░░░░░░░░ or the most important ░░░░░░░░ GDP on Wednesday for ░░░░░░░░ on the headline was ░░░░░░░░ slightly negative but a ░░░░░░░░ domestic final purchase Since ░░░░░░░░ like to look at ░░░░░░░░ so pdf p that ░░░░░░░░ at consumption in private ░░░░░░░░ That s still grew ░░░░░░░░ into one at a ░░░░░░░░ percent clip which is ░░░░░░░░ with what we ve ░░░░░░░░ for nine or 10 ░░░░░░░░ Like the I would ░░░░░░░░ that core GDP It ░░░░░░░░ out some the noise ░░░░░░░░ trade in from infant ░░░░░░░░ and from government spending ░░░░░░░░ look at the private ░░░░░░░░ final demands so three ░░░░░░░░ growth So that tells ░░░░░░░░ the economy will probably ░░░░░░░░ to grow over the ░░░░░░░░ four quarters because of ░░░░░░░░ ready So I think ░░░░░░░░ was the number one ░░░░░░░░ to highlight and their ░░░░░░░░ payrolls for us bond ░░░░░░░░ economist We think that ░░░░░░░░ our d most important ░░░░░░░░ time indicator the added ░░░░░░░░ again in April the ░░░░░░░░ rate is still low ░░░░░░░░ growth as you heard ░░░░░░░░ the previous segment is ░░░░░░░░ well So I think ░░░░░░░░ the two things that ░░░░░░░░ tells you that things ░░░░░░░░ not as dire as ░░░░░░░░ of the bears ads ░░░░░░░░ believe you know a ░░░░░░░░ of weeks ago Though ░░░░░░░░ companies have had decided ░░░░░░░░ refrain from guidance Does ░░░░░░░░ spooky Yeah I think ░░░░░░░░ s a lot of ░░░░░░░░ Nicole Obviously terrorists are ░░░░░░░░ the are a tax ░░░░░░░░ households they are a ░░░░░░░░ on businesses because so ░░░░░░░░ American businesses import goods ░░░░░░░░ pre create things here ░░░░░░░░ export to the world ░░░░░░░░ it s tear up ░░░░░░░░ hold way This was ░░░░░░░░ out The poor communication ░░░░░░░░ the administration in my ░░░░░░░░ is a taxes and ░░░░░░░░ tax So I think ░░░░░░░░ raises of downside risk ░░░░░░░░ gross paid in regal ░░░░░░░░ ve already chopped our ░░░░░░░░ call for this year ░░░░░░░░ substantially We started the ░░░░░░░░ re thinking that the ░░░░░░░░ could grow about two ░░░░░░░░ that s down to ░░░░░░░░ percent now so that ░░░░░░░░ a big chop and ░░░░░░░░ our in our outlook ░░░░░░░░ s not quite a ░░░░░░░░ though it s it ░░░░░░░░ subpar growth banana recession ░░░░░░░░ it you know things ░░░░░░░░ very uncertain We haven ░░░░░░░░ seen and economic policy ░░░░░░░░ like this like we ░░░░░░░░ seen from the White ░░░░░░░░ this year in fifty ░░░░░░░░ you have to go ░░░░░░░░ to Richard Nixon in ░░░░░░░░ of 19 Seventy one ░░░░░░░░ a Sunday night decided ░░░░░░░░ take America off the ░░░░░░░░ standard and to put ░░░░░░░░ percent terrorists across the ░░░░░░░░ in 19 Seventy one ░░░░░░░░ the CIA that you ░░░░░░░░ t really compare the ░░░░░░░░ today April two and ░░░░░░░░ it s a it ░░░░░░░░ a big on certain ░░░░░░░░ So I understand that ░░░░░░░░ are are a bit ░░░░░░░░ certain that that makes ░░░░░░░░ to me Right I ░░░░░░░░ it at this point ░░░░░░░░ tell me about what ░░░░░░░░ would tell investors What ░░░░░░░░ the plan here for ░░░░░░░░ investor What should they ░░░░░░░░ doing Stay calm watch ░░░░░░░░ for the you know ░░░░░░░░ extremely bearish pundits or ░░░░░░░░ extremely optimistic pundits Nicole ░░░░░░░░ truth is always somewhere ░░░░░░░░ between So I think ░░░░░░░░ s important stay invested ░░░░░░░░ think you see that ░░░░░░░░ the stock market you ░░░░░░░░ 20 years from now ░░░░░░░░ look back on April ░░░░░░░░ twenty five We might ░░░░░░░░ even notice the stock ░░░░░░░░ moves I think that ░░░░░░░░ s important do think ░░░░░░░░ bias from aussies that ░░░░░░░░ rates will go lower ░░░░░░░░ the you know the ░░░░░░░░ six to 11 months ░░░░░░░░ Fed meat the Fed ░░░░░░░░ next week They probably ░░░░░░░░ t do anything but ░░░░░░░░ think the balance of ░░░░░░░░ is is to slower ░░░░░░░░ into rate cuts over ░░░░░░░░ over the next sixty ░░░░░░░░ months so they will ░░░░░░░░ the Fed will cut ░░░░░░░░ some point is just ░░░░░░░░ now hard data In ░░░░░░░░ of like I said ░░░░░░░░ GDP and in terms ░░░░░░░░ the job growth picture ░░░░░░░░ looks still pretty good ░░░░░░░░ m not worried about ░░░░░░░░ and that one of ░░░░░░░░ stagflation people Nicole so ░░░░░░░░ think inflation will cool ░░░░░░░░ Much too much has ░░░░░░░░ made out of the ░░░░░░░░ and in prices So ░░░░░░░░ s something else to ░░░░░░░░ as well for investors ░░░░░░░░ about all these different ░░░░░░░░ have and we talk ░░░░░░░░ different sectors Some seem ░░░░░░░░ to I know you ░░░░░░░░ focusing a lot I ░░░░░░░░ fine scale that you ░░░░░░░░ they re safe havens ░░░░░░░░ defensive plays her an ░░░░░░░░ in a call me ░░░░░░░░ William Lot of our ░░░░░░░░ think about bonds as ░░░░░░░░ know you re you ░░░░░░░░ ballast you re you ░░░░░░░░ saving grace and in ░░░░░░░░ difficult time So I ░░░░░░░░ bonds will continue to ░░░░░░░░ that role treasury s ░░░░░░░░ course treasury yields If ░░░░░░░░ do get into a ░░░░░░░░ the Fed does kind ░░░░░░░░ the treasury yields will ░░░░░░░░ well in portfolios We ░░░░░░░░ think though in even ░░░░░░░░ shorter term bomb portfolios ░░░░░░░░ you re thinking about ░░░░░░░░ to five year maturities ░░░░░░░░ in credit credit so ░░░░░░░░ bonds for example high ░░░░░░░░ corporate bonds can still ░░░░░░░░ pretty well even in ░░░░░░░░ environment of slower growth ░░░░░░░░ and why might that ░░░░░░░░ The goal is because ░░░░░░░░ re coming into this ░░░░░░░░ with good running yields ░░░░░░░░ re coming to this ░░░░░░░░ Thinking about what you ░░░░░░░░ clipping in your bond ░░░░░░░░ for five percent yields ░░░░░░░░ that s a that ░░░░░░░░ a good story If ░░░░░░░░ economy holds up you ░░░░░░░░ still clip four five ░░░░░░░░ percent yield If the ░░░░░░░░ weakens the federal probably ░░░░░░░░ in your you re ░░░░░░░░ will do well So ░░░░░░░░ think just is still ░░░░░░░░ a friendly buyer environment ░░░░░░░░ bonds especially if I ░░░░░░░░ right in inflation Off ░░░░░░░░ that will be great ░░░░░░░░ by it sounds like ░░░░░░░░ re more positive than ░░░░░░░░ At this point I ░░░░░░░░ the idea here is ░░░░░░░░ get some trade deals ░░░░░░░░ some tax cuts maybe ░░░░░░░░ fed cuts as you ░░░░░░░░ between now and the ░░░░░░░░ of the year Does ░░░░░░░░ sound like the recipe ░░░░░░░░ will happen I think ░░░░░░░░ s a great recipe ░░░░░░░░ you can get it ░░░░░░░░ the cool I think ░░░░░░░░ the market over reacted ░░░░░░░░ April Second it s ░░░░░░░░ given that like I ░░░░░░░░ it s a once ░░░░░░░░ fifty year change in ░░░░░░░░ but that s we ░░░░░░░░ get more details Weren ░░░░░░░░ we re noticing that ░░░░░░░░ effective tariff rate while ░░░░░░░░ we ll go up ░░░░░░░░ won t be as ░░░░░░░░ as I think some ░░░░░░░░ had feared if we ░░░░░░░░ get some help in ░░░░░░░░ of extending tax cuts ░░░░░░░░ should help especially at ░░░░░░░░ war For me that ░░░░░░░░ help and 20 twenty ░░░░░░░░ Nicole on all the ░░░░░░░░ side So but that ░░░░░░░░ be a positive and ░░░░░░░░ there s more focus ░░░░░░░░ minimised is administration on ░░░░░░░░ like deregulation or growth ░░░░░░░░ type stories that should ░░░░░░░░ the market as well ░░░░░░░░ Cleveland thank you sell ░░░░░░░░ separate have a great ░░░░░░░░ economist adan in retail ░░░░░░░░ as well. Thank you.