Steve Liesman: ‘If this Tariff Regime Remains, There Will Be a Recession’

RUHLE If he were ░░░░░░░░ come out tomorrow and ░░░░░░░░ I made a mistake ░░░░░░░░ I made a mistake ░░░░░░░░ all the countries except ░░░░░░░░ China let s just ░░░░░░░░ on that and start ░░░░░░░░ he d be forgiven ░░░░░░░░ are that desperate to ░░░░░░░░ this behind them LIESMAN ░░░░░░░░ m not sure I ░░░░░░░░ put it that way ░░░░░░░░ with respect I think ░░░░░░░░ the market would then ░░░░░░░░ is that their outlook ░░░░░░░░ earnings would be much ░░░░░░░░ robust and for the ░░░░░░░░ would be much more ░░░░░░░░ than it was before ░░░░░░░░ sort of tariff turmoil ░░░░░░░░ was out there and ░░░░░░░░ then they could focus ░░░░░░░░ the things that they ░░░░░░░░ thought they were going ░░░░░░░░ get which was a ░░░░░░░░ nice tax bill for ░░░░░░░░ and some deregulation Those ░░░░░░░░ the things the market ░░░░░░░░ was kind of banking ░░░░░░░░ when it came to ░░░░░░░░ Trump Administration So what ░░░░░░░░ happening right now is ░░░░░░░░ you don t want ░░░░░░░░ be short this market ░░░░░░░░ of the fact that ░░░░░░░░ president could put out ░░░░░░░░ tweet that would be ░░░░░░░░ and you can t ░░░░░░░░ long because it doesn ░░░░░░░░ look like we re ░░░░░░░░ back to the old ░░░░░░░░ we had which was ░░░░░░░░ previous tariffs regime So ░░░░░░░░ would just say that ░░░░░░░░ s happened right now ░░░░░░░░ that it is pretty ░░░░░░░░ on the street that ░░░░░░░░ this tariff regime remains ░░░░░░░░ will be a recession ░░░░░░░░ think the gentleman you ░░░░░░░░ earlier Torsten Slok from ░░░░░░░░ said he s got ░░░░░░░░ 90 recession probability under ░░░░░░░░ current tariff regime And ░░░░░░░░ you have this other ░░░░░░░░ that we ve talked ░░░░░░░░ which is that the ░░░░░░░░ will be absolutely frozen ░░░░░░░░ ll have an inflation ░░░░░░░░ one hand you ll ░░░░░░░░ weaker growth on the ░░░░░░░░ It s called stagflation ░░░░░░░░ the Fed can t ░░░░░░░░ help in that situation.”