RUSH TRANSCRIPT Since Covid ░░░░░░░░ hit And before that ░░░░░░░░ subprime crisis So let ░░░░░░░░ Talk about all this ░░░░░░░░ it goes and what ░░░░░░░░ really going on with ░░░░░░░░ capital management cio Peter ░░░░░░░░ and oppenheimer Head of ░░░░░░░░ analysis Ari Well Peter ░░░░░░░░ m going to start ░░░░░░░░ you We it s ░░░░░░░░ to forget that in ░░░░░░░░ the markets fell 25 ░░░░░░░░ It was kind of ░░░░░░░░ and dare I Say ░░░░░░░░ This feels different What ░░░░░░░░ You advising your Clients ░░░░░░░░ do Right now Well ░░░░░░░░ course it feels very ░░░░░░░░ because you know it ░░░░░░░░ Simpler then I hate ░░░░░░░░ say That it was ░░░░░░░░ painful but it was ░░░░░░░░ because we were all ░░░░░░░░ on one thing the ░░░░░░░░ raising rates That was ░░░░░░░░ theme for the year ░░░░░░░░ year too many variables ░░░░░░░░ little visibility Clients are ░░░░░░░░ what the heck should ░░░░░░░░ do And I would ░░░░░░░░ we ll be talking ░░░░░░░░ this six months from ░░░░░░░░ We re hoping that ░░░░░░░░ will all be resolved ░░░░░░░░ six months If you ░░░░░░░░ still happy with your ░░░░░░░░ and you can logically ░░░░░░░░ it I would stay ░░░░░░░░ you Can stay the ░░░░░░░░ Well I would say ░░░░░░░░ What if it s ░░░░░░░░ resolved Everybody you re ░░░░░░░░ Kind of keeps Waiting ░░░░░░░░ the negotiating tactic Art ░░░░░░░░ the deal What if ░░░░░░░░ s not Resolved Peter ░░░░░░░░ if we re still ░░░░░░░░ about This in June ░░░░░░░░ July and August What ░░░░░░░░ Well we still could ░░░░░░░░ talking about it And ░░░░░░░░ that it will be ░░░░░░░░ resolved but we should ░░░░░░░░ some clarity I mean ░░░░░░░░ This pressure continues everybody ░░░░░░░░ the administration so far ░░░░░░░░ ve been pretty much ░░░░░░░░ about this reaction Reacting ░░░░░░░░ the markets But my ░░░░░░░░ is at that point ░░░░░░░░ Will be Some kind ░░░░░░░░ acquiescence Or giving In ░░░░░░░░ changing course because We ░░░░░░░░ that the Administration takes ░░░░░░░░ very serious read On ░░░░░░░░ Markets almost In a ░░░░░░░░ sense But Mary jump ░░░░░░░░ here especially as we ░░░░░░░░ a second ago we ░░░░░░░░ getting back to almost ░░░░░░░░ lows around 4900 on ░░░░░░░░ S P technically speaking ░░░░░░░░ that interest you In ░░░░░░░░ Of Levels And durations ░░░░░░░░ we Think of These ░░░░░░░░ First off Let s ░░░░░░░░ back to 2022 In ░░░░░░░░ it was Short and ░░░░░░░░ Rest assured we were ░░░░░░░░ scared You turn on ░░░░░░░░ these Financial broadcasts There ░░░░░░░░ There Was no More ░░░░░░░░ Than there Is the ░░░░░░░░ now People were worried ░░░░░░░░ runaway inflation The point ░░░░░░░░ we ve Seen this ░░░░░░░░ We ve seen these ░░░░░░░░ They all play out ░░░░░░░░ Same way And I ░░░░░░░░ that how we re ░░░░░░░░ about it is that ░░░░░░░░ ve yes We ve ░░░░░░░░ Kind of what you ░░░░░░░░ Typically suffer Over a ░░░░░░░░ month time Period and ░░░░░░░░ two month time period ░░░░░░░░ what That argues for ░░░░░░░░ that we need more ░░░░░░░░ I don t think ░░░░░░░░ is Through just yet ░░░░░░░░ with that said there ░░░░░░░░ Going to Be Ebbs ░░░░░░░░ flows along The way ░░░░░░░░ think April 7th that ░░░░░░░░ the High Intensity low ░░░░░░░░ least that s the ░░░░░░░░ When I think a ░░░░░░░░ of Stocks bottomed when ░░░░░░░░ Acceleration is greatest Typically ░░░░░░░░ happens next You get ░░░░░░░░ test Of that low ░░░░░░░░ re going to Be ░░░░░░░░ for Signs that Selling ░░░░░░░░ becoming Less bad The ░░░░░░░░ Isn t Going to ░░░░░░░░ as high as it ░░░░░░░░ And that sets the ░░░░░░░░ for the Counter trend ░░░░░░░░ That I think We ░░░░░░░░ see Into the summer ░░░░░░░░ think that 200 day ░░░░░░░░ is going to limit ░░░░░░░░ And I Think again ░░░░░░░░ longer term we re ░░░░░░░░ Out of The woods ░░░░░░░░ yet That there s ░░░░░░░░ to be additional Volatility ░░░░░░░░ in 2025 But it ░░░░░░░░ interesting you re saying ░░░░░░░░ kind of time Trump ░░░░░░░░ levels right So some ░░░░░░░░ would look at this ░░░░░░░░ go hey great We ░░░░░░░░ up a seven month ░░░░░░░░ off in a two ░░░░░░░░ period of time Now ░░░░░░░░ can get in and ░░░░░░░░ have to worry about ░░░░░░░░ But your point is ░░░░░░░░ no like these These ░░░░░░░░ still are going to ░░░░░░░░ a while to work ░░░░░░░░ out That s right ░░░░░░░░ You know We Came ░░░░░░░░ the Year with below ░░░░░░░░ Market expectations just Because ░░░░░░░░ Were pushing into the ░░░░░░░░ year of this bull ░░░░░░░░ Now as you Think ░░░░░░░░ the down Cycle Typically ░░░░░░░░ ll Peak to Trough ░░░░░░░░ about Seven months This ░░░░░░░░ s only lasted about ░░░░░░░░ months Typically you ll ░░░░░░░░ a Retracement of 18 ░░░░░░░░ of prior performance We ░░░░░░░░ t Done that yet ░░░░░░░░ right There s a ░░░░░░░░ element You even think ░░░░░░░░ 2022 We did a ░░░░░░░░ of Downside in those ░░░░░░░░ few Months into may ░░░░░░░░ then really from May ░░░░░░░░ October was The time ░░░░░░░░ of it So again ░░░░░░░░ look look Look like ░░░░░░░░ I guess the point ░░░░░░░░ Is that we Have ░░░░░░░░ conviction more time is ░░░░░░░░ here Rather than Necessarily ░░░░░░░░ Lower levels That was ░░░░░░░░ 50 retracement Of the ░░░░░░░░ Bull market 4800 I ░░░░░░░░ that Peter 2022 We ░░░░░░░░ coming out of Covid ░░░░░░░░ there was a lot ░░░░░░░░ other things that were ░░░░░░░░ on This feels different ░░░░░░░░ I said at the ░░░░░░░░ How do we get ░░░░░░░░ of this Is this ░░░░░░░░ you view this as ░░░░░░░░ self inflicted market wound ░░░░░░░░ s always opportunities even ░░░░░░░░ however you define this ░░░░░░░░ so we re not ░░░░░░░░ sitting here waiting for ░░░░░░░░ storm to pass I ░░░░░░░░ we re looking for ░░░░░░░░ So one free gift ░░░░░░░░ the market has given ░░░░░░░░ in our opinion our ░░░░░░░░ European aerospace and defense ░░░░░░░░ they seem to be ░░░░░░░░ independent of executive orders ░░░░░░░░ etc And more focused ░░░░░░░░ the European re armament ░░░░░░░░ build up So while ░░░░░░░░ re waiting for this ░░░░░░░░ to pass there are ░░░░░░░░ And I would say ░░░░░░░░ in our opinion is ░░░░░░░░ very strong opportunity right ░░░░░░░░ Yeah We ve talked ░░░░░░░░ a lot about this ░░░░░░░░ for Germany and stimulus ░░░░░░░░ Europe Some people some ░░░░░░░░ call this the quote ░░░░░░░░ America trade Are you ░░░░░░░░ far Not at all ░░░░░░░░ I m looking at ░░░░░░░░ the horizons and the ░░░░░░░░ that American policy has ░░░░░░░░ part created this opportunity ░░░░░░░░ remember that the current ░░░░░░░░ s attitude toward NATO ░░░░░░░░ fed this We ve ░░░░░░░░ watching the GDP growth ░░░░░░░░ the NATO members prior ░░░░░░░░ Trump s election It ░░░░░░░░ always been under 2 ░░░░░░░░ their GDP Remarkably in ░░░░░░░░ it broke through that ░░░░░░░░ GDP spending level And ░░░░░░░░ that triggered our interest ░░░░░░░░ those countries those companies ░░░░░░░░ then we really were ░░░░░░░░ paying much attention to ░░░░░░░░ at all So there ░░░░░░░░ good things that come ░░░░░░░░ uncertainties right now Do ░░░░░░░░ and we get some ░░░░░░░░ here Peter But do ░░░░░░░░ worry about what s ░░░░░░░░ on between the president ░░░░░░░░ the Fed chair or ░░░░░░░░ could happen with the ░░░░░░░░ here and kind of ░░░░░░░░ direction that could go ░░░░░░░░ is that another thing ░░░░░░░░ you think we will ░░░░░░░░ talking less about in ░░░░░░░░ months Because that one ░░░░░░░░ wonder if we re ░░░░░░░░ about even more Right ░░░░░░░░ re hoping that But ░░░░░░░░ know history If you ░░░░░░░░ look back I m ░░░░░░░░ much of a proponent ░░░░░░░░ saying you know history ░░░░░░░░ itself etc But this ░░░░░░░░ t the first rodeo ░░░░░░░░ has been like this ░░░░░░░░ I think all the ░░░░░░░░ back to president Nixon ░░░░░░░░ have been these public ░░░░░░░░ private disputes This one ░░░░░░░░ seem over the top ░░░░░░░░ I do think that ░░░░░░░░ might be some saber ░░░░░░░░ and that the current ░░░░░░░░ will play out the ░░░░░░░░ All right As I ░░░░░░░░ we ve got some ░░░░░░░░ to get to gentlemen ░░░░░░░░ now. Thanks.