RUSH TRANSCRIPT Course a ░░░░░░░░ week Brian settle is ░░░░░░░░ us Co cio of ░░░░░░░░ bahnsen group Brian thanks ░░░░░░░░ your time What should ░░░░░░░░ second quarter playbook look ░░░░░░░░ given the environment that ░░░░░░░░ are in Well I ░░░░░░░░ for us it s ░░░░░░░░ focus on income So ░░░░░░░░ bigger driver of total ░░░░░░░░ will come in the ░░░░░░░░ of income we re ░░░░░░░░ growth investors And so ░░░░░░░░ s where we tend ░░░░░░░░ play But I think ░░░░░░░░ you position yourself a ░░░░░░░░ bit more defensively and ░░░░░░░░ of those sectors like ░░░░░░░░ energy staples you have ░░░░░░░░ ability to capture income ░░░░░░░░ the next quarter and ░░░░░░░░ this tariff talk settle ░░░░░░░░ out So in other ░░░░░░░░ Brian we should look ░░░░░░░░ an opportunity to reengage ░░░░░░░░ markets Once doge and ░░░░░░░░ tariff impact is behind ░░░░░░░░ So do you think ░░░░░░░░ the tax cuts will ░░░░░░░░ this very challenging tariff ░░░░░░░░ in the second and ░░░░░░░░ half of the year ░░░░░░░░ is that when we ░░░░░░░░ up on financials and ░░░░░░░░ well I think you ░░░░░░░░ own those already I ░░░░░░░░ be going into this ░░░░░░░░ of time Remember this ░░░░░░░░ what has pulled back ░░░░░░░░ has been consumer discretionary ░░░░░░░░ technology mainly There s ░░░░░░░░ small pullback in industrials ░░░░░░░░ materials But health care ░░░░░░░░ you know energy financials ░░░░░░░░ these sectors are significantly ░░░░░░░░ on the year So ░░░░░░░░ can own them now ░░░░░░░░ but as far as ░░░░░░░░ into the tax reform ░░░░░░░░ think if we get ░░░░░░░░ third quarter of 2025 ░░░░░░░░ there hasn t been ░░░░░░░░ that has gone through ░░░░░░░░ then I think that ░░░░░░░░ be bad for markets ░░░░░░░░ think markets have not ░░░░░░░░ in um in extension ░░░░░░░░ a permanent extension of ░░░░░░░░ tax cuts from the ░░░░░░░░ policy from Trump 1 ░░░░░░░░ um and I think ░░░░░░░░ you have some tariff ░░░░░░░░ along without um tax ░░░░░░░░ that get passed then ░░░░░░░░ think markets would would ░░░░░░░░ would be unfriendly to ░░░░░░░░ That s not my ░░░░░░░░ case though I do ░░░░░░░░ they ll get something ░░░░░░░░ somewhat sometime around summer ░░░░░░░░ talking of what s ░░░░░░░░ in and what s ░░░░░░░░ it seems that leading ░░░░░░░░ a April the 2nd ░░░░░░░░ s been a by ░░░░░░░░ large sell the news ░░░░░░░░ and yet come April ░░░░░░░░ I E Tomorrow our ░░░░░░░░ might it be a ░░░░░░░░ the news Well good ░░░░░░░░ point I wish I ░░░░░░░░ tell you what is ░░░░░░░░ negotiated now and what ░░░░░░░░ ultimately be negotiated from ░░░░░░░░ Until then even though ░░░░░░░░ s just a day ░░░░░░░░ two away Um I ░░░░░░░░ t think the market ░░░░░░░░ and I think that ░░░░░░░░ why you had you ░░░░░░░░ the lows breached earlier ░░░░░░░░ morning and then a ░░░░░░░░ recovery here up 400 ░░░░░░░░ points on the dow ░░░░░░░░ you know markets are ░░░░░░░░ to digest something that ░░░░░░░░ frankly undigestible We don ░░░░░░░░ know exactly what tariff ░░░░░░░░ will come down the ░░░░░░░░ I can tell you ░░░░░░░░ What is currently priced ░░░░░░░░ is about a half ░░░░░░░░ percentage point of GDP ░░░░░░░░ is 150 billion Um ░░░░░░░░ everything ng um uh ░░░░░░░░ gets completed the way ░░░░░░░░ it has been proposed ░░░░░░░░ will be a doubling ░░░░░░░░ that So call it ░░░░░░░░ of GDP Um so ░░░░░░░░ far as your comment ░░░░░░░░ buy the rumor or ░░░░░░░░ news um you know ░░░░░░░░ think it s tough ░░░░░░░░ do either of those ░░░░░░░░ when when the administration ░░░░░░░░ doesn t know exactly ░░░░░░░░ tariffs will ultimately lie ░░░░░░░░ can markets at this ░░░░░░░░ That s why I ░░░░░░░░ being more income focused ░░░░░░░░ defensive is important Yes ░░░░░░░░ uncertainty that kills the ░░░░░░░░ isn t it and ░░░░░░░░ that point it also ░░░░░░░░ like the market isn ░░░░░░░░ convinced that that there ░░░░░░░░ a Trump put anymore ░░░░░░░░ other words it does ░░░░░░░░ that there is a ░░░░░░░░ of short terme market ░░░░░░░░ economic pain that the ░░░░░░░░ Administration is willing to ░░░░░░░░ in order to achieve ░░░░░░░░ long terme goals But ░░░░░░░░ you think Brian that ░░░░░░░░ there will be a ░░░░░░░░ whether it s a ░░░░░░░░ market correction whether it ░░░░░░░░ stagflation whether it s ░░░░░░░░ a recession I think ░░░░░░░░ is definitely a limit ░░░░░░░░ I you know look ░░░░░░░░ figured out that it ░░░░░░░░ t 10 because we ░░░░░░░░ had a 10 correction ░░░░░░░░ there hasn t been ░░░░░░░░ you know a bluff ░░░░░░░░ anything yet If we ░░░░░░░░ to 20 that s ░░░░░░░░ my my call That ░░░░░░░░ not where I think ░░░░░░░░ are going Do I ░░░░░░░░ they change policy I ░░░░░░░░ do I think when ░░░░░░░░ say something like well ░░░░░░░░ ll change the tariff ░░░░░░░░ on China if there ░░░░░░░░ a TikTok deal if ░░░░░░░░ shows you a level ░░░░░░░░ commitment for what they ░░░░░░░░ trying to get after ░░░░░░░░ meaning that it s ░░░░░░░░ Um I think this ░░░░░░░░ about getting a deal ░░░░░░░░ That s better than ░░░░░░░░ we have now on ░░░░░░░░ trade And I think ░░░░░░░░ s about bringing or ░░░░░░░░ to bring manufacturing jobs ░░░░░░░░ to the United States ░░░░░░░░ I don t think ░░░░░░░░ they ll be able ░░░░░░░░ stomach some sort of ░░░░░░░░ bear market in the ░░░░░░░░ Yes Without changing tune ░░░░░░░░ little bit But Ryan ░░░░░░░░ then are the odds ░░░░░░░░ some flexibility some leading ░░░░░░░░ carve outs except as ░░░░░░░░ president has said tick ░░░░░░░░ is not tied to ░░░░░░░░ larger tariff deal but ░░░░░░░░ be Is that going ░░░░░░░░ take the sting out ░░░░░░░░ reciprocal tariffs and liberation ░░░░░░░░ or is this going ░░░░░░░░ herald the beginning of ░░░░░░░░ all out global trade ░░░░░░░░ I don t think ░░░░░░░░ latter So my base ░░░░░░░░ is not a global ░░░░░░░░ trade war What we ░░░░░░░░ 100 years ago here ░░░░░░░░ this is a different ░░░░░░░░ now The world is ░░░░░░░░ interconnected than it ever ░░░░░░░░ been before Doesn t ░░░░░░░░ in a vacuum We ░░░░░░░░ all tethered together here ░░░░░░░░ if you look at ░░░░░░░░ tariff rates the average ░░░░░░░░ rate in the United ░░░░░░░░ is roughly 2 8 ░░░░░░░░ average tariff rate in ░░░░░░░░ in the EU is ░░░░░░░░ than that It s ░░░░░░░░ 2 So my point ░░░░░░░░ this is a negotiation ░░░░░░░░ around certain industries and ░░░░░░░░ in sectors And I ░░░░░░░░ that again the design ░░░░░░░░ this is to change ░░░░░░░░ behavior If goods and ░░░░░░░░ are costing more from ░░░░░░░░ American made goods and ░░░░░░░░ provide then perhaps that ░░░░░░░░ consumer behavior Perhaps that ░░░░░░░░ jobs back to the ░░░░░░░░ States But you know ░░░░░░░░ doesn t have that ░░░░░░░░ not without its negative ░░░░░░░░ either So all that ░░░░░░░░ say I believe that ░░░░░░░░ ll get a version ░░░░░░░░ what s been proposed ░░░░░░░░ it won t be ░░░░░░░░ largest uh concern over ░░░░░░░░ will sting and hurt ░░░░░░░░ economy the most I ░░░░░░░░ you ll get a ░░░░░░░░ amount Call it half ░░░░░░░░ point to three quarters ░░░░░░░░ a point Off GDP ░░░░░░░░ this thing You ll ░░░░░░░░ an offset on some ░░░░░░░░ the tax reform that ░░░░░░░░ ll get through Congress ░░░░░░░░ then then we move ░░░░░░░░ Um Brian cecil thank ░░░░░░░░ so much for joining ░░░░░░░░ today Really great start ░░░░░░░░ the show Brian seidel ░░░░░░░░ the bahnsen group,