RUSH TRANSCRIPT Vanguard Fifty ░░░░░░░░ of high quality investments ░░░░░░░░ all right so this ░░░░░░░░ the producer price index ░░░░░░░░ in below consensus Just ░░░░░░░░ the way like the ░░░░░░░░ did And and immediately ░░░░░░░░ who just minutes before ░░░░░░░░ buildup told you to ░░░░░░░░ for a hot number ░░░░░░░░ it wasn t hot ░░░░░░░░ dismissed it but they ░░░░░░░░ wait til the next ░░░░░░░░ it s going to ░░░░░░░░ sizzling The decline in ░░░░░░░░ did catch my attention ░░░░░░░░ it kind of puts ░░░░░░░░ Atlanta fed GDP now ░░░░░░░░ into a different light ░░░░░░░░ when it first shifted ░░░░░░░░ everyone said forget it ░░░░░░░░ s just trade associated ░░░░░░░░ tariffs exports imports Look ░░░░░░░░ it now There s ░░░░░░░░ a sharp decline than ░░░░░░░░ s within anticipated by ░░░░░░░░ Consumers residential investment and ░░░░░░░░ course that goes along ░░░░░░░░ the trading imbalance So ░░░░░░░░ this goes back to ░░░░░░░░ so called recession fears ░░░░░░░░ a lot of it ░░░░░░░░ fanned by the media ░░░░░░░░ line first of all ░░░░░░░░ calls are hard because ░░░░░░░░ economy is really bifurcated ░░░░░░░░ about this Last year ░░░░░░░░ expert perts scoffed I ░░░░░░░░ a lot of economists ░░░░░░░░ said no the consumer ░░░░░░░░ person the consumer is ░░░░░░░░ great when we knew ░░░░░░░░ polls and surveys and ░░░░░░░░ things that individuals were ░░░░░░░░ badly I mean really ░░░░░░░░ And to make matters ░░░░░░░░ the media just kind ░░░░░░░░ chalked it up to ░░░░░░░░ Remember the vibe session ░░░░░░░░ whatever they wall called ░░░░░░░░ In 2032 experts agreed ░░░░░░░░ was an 2022 experts ░░░░░░░░ there was an imminent ░░░░░░░░ That did not happen ░░░░░░░░ the stock market was ░░░░░░░░ a bottom when that ░░░░░░░░ came out I want ░░░░░░░░ bring in George noble ░░░░░░░░ with sanctuary wealth chief ░░░░░░░░ strategist Mary Ann bartleson ░░░░░░░░ Ann a there s ░░░░░░░░ many moving parts right ░░░░░░░░ thing I ve been ░░░░░░░░ to the audience about ░░░░░░░░ in the last two ░░░░░░░░ hard day taxer soft ░░░░░░░░ Surveys are scary I ░░░░░░░░ today the aaii individual ░░░░░░░░ almost 60 bearish Obviously ░░░░░░░░ course all this other ░░░░░░░░ But the hard data ░░░░░░░░ t reflected the fears ░░░░░░░░ No it actually hasn ░░░░░░░░ And there s a ░░░░░░░░ of indicators within the ░░░░░░░░ including the vix index ░░░░░░░░ is also she showing ░░░░░░░░ But I know just ░░░░░░░░ from talking to people ░░░░░░░░ re a starting to ░░░░░░░░ concerned and saying maybe ░░░░░░░░ m not going to ░░░░░░░░ These are now the ░░░░░░░░ end consumers Charles right ░░░░░░░░ of the things I ░░░░░░░░ concerned about is what ░░░░░░░░ if the consumer does ░░░░░░░░ back That will slow ░░░░░░░░ the economy but I ░░░░░░░░ the market s priced ░░░░░░░░ in at this juncture ░░░░░░░░ I agree with you ░░░░░░░░ particularly since the top ░░░░░░░░ are doing 50 of ░░░░░░░░ purchases We know the ░░░░░░░░ effect You have money ░░░░░░░░ if your portfolio if ░░░░░░░░ S P hits a ░░░░░░░░ 10 move to the ░░░░░░░░ even the wealthiest folks ░░░░░░░░ put a pause on ░░░░░░░░ Some are saying maybe ░░░░░░░░ s by design maybe ░░░░░░░░ s the only way ░░░░░░░░ get rid of inflation ░░░░░░░░ was enemy number one ░░░░░░░░ into the year I ░░░░░░░░ with you Charles It ░░░░░░░░ hard to know exactly ░░░░░░░░ the administration s thinking ░░░░░░░░ I don t think ░░░░░░░░ re so tone deaf ░░░░░░░░ to this not being ░░░░░░░░ deliberately and I think ░░░░░░░░ Bessent made some comments ░░░░░░░░ morning again about they ░░░░░░░░ not really that worried ░░░░░░░░ the stock market One ░░░░░░░░ the big problems has ░░░░░░░░ everyone came into the ░░░░░░░░ thinking we re going ░░░░░░░░ have a Trump put ░░░░░░░░ we did the last ░░░░░░░░ But it looks like ░░░░░░░░ is no Trump put ░░░░░░░░ it s at a ░░░░░░░░ lower level Peak valuation ░░░░░░░░ exposure at the beginning ░░░░░░░░ the year and now ░░░░░░░░ re dealing with peak ░░░░░░░░ peak exposure And you ░░░░░░░░ when you have people ░░░░░░░░ over their skis exposed ░░░░░░░░ can you know they ░░░░░░░░ price risk they can ░░░░░░░░ price uncertainty And the ░░░░░░░░ is between concerns over ░░░░░░░░ recession which I think ░░░░░░░░ now what we re ░░░░░░░░ a is a growth ░░░░░░░░ there haven t been ░░░░░░░░ jobs lost to your ░░░░░░░░ about hard versus soft ░░░░░░░░ tariff Ukraine I don ░░░░░░░░ think a lot of ░░░░░░░░ uncertainty s going to ░░░░░░░░ anytime soon Charles but ░░░░░░░░ some point it gets ░░░░░░░░ into the market Yes ░░░░░░░░ we should say there ░░░░░░░░ a point where who ░░░░░░░░ it could be days ░░░░░░░░ or months you say ░░░░░░░░ whatever happened to the ░░░░░░░░ over x y z ░░░░░░░░ they don t get ░░░░░░░░ but the fear in ░░░░░░░░ 24 hour news cycle ░░░░░░░░ move on to something ░░░░░░░░ To that point that ░░░░░░░░ alluded to so I ░░░░░░░░ I think it was ░░░░░░░░ most recent Bank of ░░░░░░░░ survey went they survey ░░░░░░░░ these fund managers around ░░░░░░░░ world They had 3 ░░░░░░░░ which is always kind ░░░░░░░░ a red flag and ░░░░░░░░ all agreed the market ░░░░░░░░ overvalued Laughter So I ░░░░░░░░ this is an interesting ░░░░░░░░ s a conundrum Charles ░░░░░░░░ have cycles And is ░░░░░░░░ go all in and ░░░░░░░░ go all out It ░░░░░░░░ very normal to have ░░░░░░░░ 10 correction once a ░░░░░░░░ and we re kind ░░░░░░░░ in that range Charles ░░░░░░░░ do you think investors ░░░░░░░░ spoiled After two years ░░░░░░░░ 20 plus point rallies ░░░░░░░░ mean I m talking ░░░░░░░░ retail investors who are ░░░░░░░░ to get a little ░░░░░░░░ nervous because they own ░░░░░░░░ buy the dip worked ░░░░░░░░ single time And if ░░░░░░░░ are getting nervous ors ░░░░░░░░ know better than anyone ░░░░░░░░ what are you telling ░░░░░░░░ We think there s ░░░░░░░░ good buying opportunities if ░░░░░░░░ can take a look ░░░░░░░░ 12 months To you ░░░░░░░░ out a year from ░░░░░░░░ I think we re ░░░░░░░░ to be fine Do ░░░░░░░░ think the market lows ░░░░░░░░ in yet No I ░░░░░░░░ t I do think ░░░░░░░░ could have a little ░░░░░░░░ more downside I m ░░░░░░░░ that we could if ░░░░░░░░ stays volatile and they ░░░░░░░░ really not worried about ░░░░░░░░ volatility markets can go ░░░░░░░░ another 12 maybe to ░░░░░░░░ from the their highs ░░░░░░░░ if we really Charles ░░░░░░░░ 12 from here No ░░░░░░░░ no from the highs ░░░░░░░░ other words Charles another ░░░░░░░░ 5 from where we ░░░░░░░░ At this moment that ░░░░░░░░ be around 5200 5400 ░░░░░░░░ okay On the S ░░░░░░░░ But let s say ░░░░░░░░ m wrong and we ░░░░░░░░ up really with a ░░░░░░░░ scare The market does ░░░░░░░░ down 20 I still ░░░░░░░░ these are great buying ░░░░░░░░ Charles right For investors ░░░░░░░░ investors Charles the operative ░░░░░░░░ is investor Let me ░░░░░░░░ you George because I ░░░░░░░░ the gaming the bottom ░░░░░░░░ tough I go back ░░░░░░░░ March let s say ░░░░░░░░ March 2009 and everyone ░░░░░░░░ saying hey keep waiting ░░░░░░░░ next shoe s going ░░░░░░░░ drop It s going ░░░░░░░░ be commercial real estate ░░░░░░░░ of course you get ░░░░░░░░ bounces There s no ░░░░░░░░ that hey that was ░░░░░░░░ bottom But it comes ░░░░░░░░ then all of a ░░░░░░░░ you know you ve ░░░░░░░░ it And I worry ░░░░░░░░ folks who are trying ░░░░░░░░ be too precise and ░░░░░░░░ a a bounce particularly ░░░░░░░░ think the initial part ░░░░░░░░ it I feel like ░░░░░░░░ re a coiled spring ░░░░░░░░ now and some of ░░░░░░░░ things we re talking ░░░░░░░░ are going to be ░░░░░░░░ through negotiations They re ░░░░░░░░ economic events per se ░░░░░░░░ they linger for a ░░░░░░░░ long time I think ░░░░░░░░ they linger for a ░░░░░░░░ time This could be ░░░░░░░░ cold spring I agree ░░░░░░░░ lu the Ukraine situation ░░░░░░░░ think will be resolved ░░░░░░░░ short order But you ░░░░░░░░ go to austerity for ░░░░░░░░ and is doge You ░░░░░░░░ the market took bond ░░░░░░░░ took succor from the ░░░░░░░░ that we were going ░░░░░░░░ cut our deficits and ░░░░░░░░ would help yields decline ░░░░░░░░ on and so fort ░░░░░░░░ you actually look what ░░░░░░░░ happened so far the ░░░░░░░░ the identified savings from ░░░░░░░░ have been really tiny ░░░░░░░░ if you amortize them ░░░░░░░░ the five years Charles ░░░░░░░░ are you saying the ░░░░░░░░ should be ignoring that ░░░░░░░░ think it s a ░░░░░░░░ bit of a smoke ░░░░░░░░ yes I do And ░░░░░░░░ think you know us ░░░░░░░░ we ve had this ░░░░░░░░ dominance the last year ░░░░░░░░ markets which is why ░░░░░░░░ never had the recession ░░░░░░░░ of us thought we ░░░░░░░░ have Charles right And ░░░░░░░░ don t see that ░░░░░░░░ stopping Charles okay And ░░░░░░░░ you know trying to ░░░░░░░░ the bottom of the ░░░░░░░░ it s it s ░░░░░░░░ but you know I ░░░░░░░░ we ll know it ░░░░░░░░ we see is it ░░░░░░░░ price action so far ░░░░░░░░ been horrible and one ░░░░░░░░ point I do want ░░░░░░░░ make Charles I m ░░░░░░░░ you ve read some ░░░░░░░░ the reports of what ░░░░░░░░ are like to institution ░░░░░░░░ investors And look at ░░░░░░░░ of the prime brokerage ░░░░░░░░ While there s been ░░░░░░░░ tremendous amount of selling ░░░░░░░░ past coming weeks gross ░░░░░░░░ have come down but ░░░░░░░░ in mind it s ░░░░░░░░ just the gross positions ░░░░░░░░ have come down but ░░░░░░░░ ve taken some pretty ░░░░░░░░ hits in their p ░░░░░░░░ If you look how ░░░░░░░░ they re invested they ░░░░░░░░ still pretty fully invested ░░░░░░░░ if this continues to ░░░░░░░░ down further Charles selling ░░░░░░░░ beget more selling I ░░░░░░░░ you were looking at ░░░░░░░░ nvidia and cheniere Long ░░░░░░░░ buys Charles all right ░░░░░░░░ George thank you both ░░░░░░░░ much sorry We do ░░░░░░░░ michelle, by the way,