RUSH TRANSCRIPT C and ░░░░░░░░ true nerd Somebody to ░░░░░░░░ radio is talk of ░░░░░░░░ Angeles The president s ░░░░░░░░ their Jeffrey Cleveland hugely ░░░░░░░░ to earned with bergman ░░░░░░░░ chief economist out of ░░░░░░░░ a is rob Jeffrey ░░░░░░░░ was thunderstruck for four ░░░░░░░░ six days ago how ░░░░░░░░ basic fuel was Were ░░░░░░░░ horrific fires Hollywood is ░░░░░░░░ to work Is that ░░░░░░░░ toll you see in ░░░░░░░░ Los Angeles An interesting ░░░░░░░░ right it s a ░░░░░░░░ s a big sprawl ░░░░░░░░ is many overlapping jurisdictions ░░░░░░░░ the fires definitely affected ░░░░░░░░ areas but other areas ░░░░░░░░ seems like life went ░░░░░░░░ just dislike before just ░░░░░░░░ normal So An interesting ░░░░░░░░ to live What you ░░░░░░░░ on tariffs remove madrid ░░░░░░░░ from long beach the ░░░░░░░░ head of Los Angeles ░░░░░░░░ Maybe once every six ░░░░░░░░ me What do you ░░░░░░░░ them Tariffs Jeffrey Cleveland ░░░░░░░░ the entry way for ░░░░░░░░ imports Is that the ░░░░░░░░ is over estimating the ░░░░░░░░ of any kind of ░░░░░░░░ tariffs on inflation We ░░░░░░░░ t we didn t ░░░░░░░░ a great amount of ░░░░░░░░ in two thousand and ░░░░░░░░ 18 19 when terrorists ░░░░░░░░ introduced we we view ░░░░░░░░ more herbs as a ░░░░░░░░ of a back tax ░░░░░░░░ not an inflationary story ░░░░░░░░ that s a that ░░░░░░░░ probably a big area ░░░░░░░░ the market as been ░░░░░░░░ the wrong I think ░░░░░░░░ re we re sort ░░░░░░░░ an inflation scare right ░░░░░░░░ where people are much ░░░░░░░░ worried about inflation rate ░░░░░░░░ inflation been an issue ░░░░░░░░ we think they should ░░░░░░░░ and tariffs are are ░░░░░░░░ a part of that ░░░░░░░░ I think that Crossing ░░░░░░░░ bloomberg terminal year Mark ░░░░░░░░ says mehta 20 twenty ░░░░░░░░ cap ex will be ░░░░░░░░ two sixty five billion ░░░░░░░░ The estimate from Wall ░░░░░░░░ fifty one billion dollars ░░░░░░░░ the tex bending it ░░░░░░░░ on this a I ░░░░░░░░ is just so know ░░░░░░░░ my Microsoft was owed ░░░░░░░░ weeks ago was the ░░░░░░░░ billion large yeah absolutely ░░░░░░░░ Jeffrey We step back ░░░░░░░░ What s the call ░░░░░░░░ for 20 twenty five ░░░░░░░░ I mean in terms ░░░░░░░░ GDP growth How much ░░░░░░░░ it did your GDP ░░░░░░░░ change at all with ░░░░░░░░ election in mister Trump ░░░░░░░░ the White House Lot ░░░░░░░░ noise that we ve ░░░░░░░░ that so are you ░░░░░░░░ in week one of ░░░░░░░░ administration a lot of ░░░░░░░░ executive order signed but ░░░░░░░░ a lot of big ░░░░░░░░ policy changes something that ░░░░░░░░ make us change Our ░░░░░░░░ on the trajectory of ░░░░░░░░ the us economy would ░░░░░░░░ some some sort of ░░░░░░░░ package or a tax ░░░░░░░░ whether that be corporate ░░░░░░░░ cut personal income tax ░░░░░░░░ That stuff is going ░░░░░░░░ take more work than ░░░░░░░░ the stroke of a ░░░░░░░░ Republicans have a very ░░░░░░░░ no control of the ░░░░░░░░ so things like that ░░░░░░░░ to be more difficult ░░░░░░░░ implement and so we ░░░░░░░░ t changed our forecast ░░░░░░░░ we have two percent ░░░░░░░░ for this year which ░░░░░░░░ still I would say ░░░░░░░░ like GDP growth The ░░░░░░░░ part of our forecast ░░░░░░░░ as I hinted at ░░░░░░░░ inflation is going to ░░░░░░░░ to moderate We think ░░░░░░░░ two Percent encore pc ░░░░░░░░ really really wild 11 ░░░░░░░░ base unless that is ░░░░░░░░ key that if if ░░░░░░░░ happens ah has I ░░░░░░░░ tell her they you ░░░░░░░░ voice That would be ░░░░░░░░ for guns and stocks ░░░░░░░░ well as the market ░░░░░░░░ pricing in the pagan ░░░░░░░░ guess yeah I mean ░░░░░░░░ is no hope in ░░░░░░░░ mart to me It ░░░░░░░░ now about early not ░░░░░░░░ all gee we re ░░░░░░░░ know if you don ░░░░░░░░ have you you wouldn ░░░░░░░░ have me on the ░░░░░░░░ was price in this ░░░░░░░░ I think the biggest ░░░░░░░░ that came out this ░░░░░░░░ was that done New ░░░░░░░░ rent index that the ░░░░░░░░ less put out on ░░░░░░░░ 20 first army That ░░░░░░░░ And cp I and ░░░░░░░░ frankly housing overall in ░░░░░░░░ inflation should continue to ░░░░░░░░ off and I think ░░░░░░░░ s gonna have a ░░░░░░░░ effect on core Don ░░░░░░░░ think people are paying ░░░░░░░░ attention that Tom yeah ░░░░░░░░ about the be us ░░░░░░░░ revisions next week in ░░░░░░░░ long and I think ░░░░░░░░ eight hours ago and ░░░░░░░░ really look Payrolls and ░░░░░░░░ thousand adjustment period month ░░░░░░░░ of your Are you ░░░░░░░░ that Jeffrey Cleveland Well ░░░░░░░░ do think that the ░░░░░░░░ market is softening I ░░░░░░░░ if you look at ░░░░░░░░ paid in and regal ░░░░░░░░ the week out today ░░░░░░░░ will we looked at ░░░░░░░░ claims Those of continue ░░░░░░░░ creep up one point ░░░░░░░░ million and the latest ░░░░░░░░ So we we we ░░░░░░░░ seeing a softer labor ░░░░░░░░ as not nothing like ░░░░░░░░ saw on 20 twenty ░░░░░░░░ so things have cooled ░░░░░░░░ but again to me ░░░░░░░░ tells me the threat ░░░░░░░░ labor market drive inflation ░░░░░░░░ diminished and work or ░░░░░░░░ to that soft landing ░░░░░░░░ We re not seen ░░░░░░░░ a collapse apps and ░░░░░░░░ growth it It is ░░░░░░░░ job growth Indeed so ░░░░░░░░ that backdrop Jeffrey you ░░░░░░░░ do you expect this ░░░░░░░░ Reserve to do this ░░░░░░░░ I think they re ░░░░░░░░ to cut more times ░░░░░░░░ people think at this ░░░░░░░░ so that the market ░░░░░░░░ forty one basis points ░░░░░░░░ of implied clots right ░░░░░░░░ through the year I ░░░░░░░░ they could end up ░░░░░░░░ three or four times ░░░░░░░░ year so more or ░░░░░░░░ once per quarter Obviously ░░░░░░░░ ll sit on their ░░░░░░░░ next week they ll ░░░░░░░░ and if I m ░░░░░░░░ on that inflation day ░░░░░░░░ that will be the ░░░░░░░░ we heard from governor ░░░░░░░░ or last week contingent ░░░░░░░░ inflation data they re ░░░░░░░░ in the cutting game ░░░░░░░░ I think right now ░░░░░░░░ bond market is not ░░░░░░░░ attention to that guy ░░░░░░░░ what your yield call ░░░░░░░░ got price down yield ░░░░░░░░ worse the sweeney the ░░░░░░░░ years of patel said ░░░░░░░░ Joseph or point two ░░░░░░░░ sure What s your ░░░░░░░░ you re call Jeff ░░░░░░░░ we have 10 years ░░░░░░░░ into three sixty by ░░░░░░░░ by the end of ░░░░░░░░ year Yeah it s ░░░░░░░░ by not three things ░░░░░░░░ inflation is huge inflation ░░░░░░░░ a big driver and ░░░░░░░░ hundred children lie and ░░░░░░░░ Would you say that ░░░░░░░░ mean year it s ░░░░░░░░ basically cologne stuff And ░░░░░░░░ say our here and ░░░░░░░░ that but you know ░░░░░░░░ really matters for longer ░░░░░░░░ rates inflation if inflation ░░░░░░░░ cool and it over ░░░░░░░░ we talked about shelters ░░░░░░░░ a big part of ░░░░░░░░ rents have been a ░░░░░░░░ part of that those ░░░░░░░░ continue to cool inflation ░░░░░░░░ cool off and ones ░░░░░░░░ percent that I ll ░░░░░░░░ down 10 year yields ░░░░░░░░ the Fed cuts a ░░░░░░░░ bit that I ll ░░░░░░░░ down drag down 10 ░░░░░░░░ yield and you know ░░░░░░░░ I ve heard so ░░░░░░░░ probably more than any ░░░░░░░░ of my career about ░░░░░░░░ fiscal side of the ░░░░░░░░ idea that we could ░░░░░░░░ a fiscal calamity them ░░░░░░░░ bottom vigilantes are coming ░░░░░░░░ so the term premium ░░░░░░░░ wiped out But it ░░░░░░░░ power possible that that ░░░░░░░░ will settle down this ░░░░░░░░ in all those factors ░░░░░░░░ you to a lower ░░░░░░░░ year treasury yield in ░░░░░░░░ year’s