RUSH TRANSCRIPT Have a ░░░░░░░░ with John a creek ░░░░░░░░ chief investment officer at ░░░░░░░░ My wealth advises joining ░░░░░░░░ from Illinois today good ░░░░░░░░ good evening over there ░░░░░░░░ thanks very much for ░░░░░░░░ us today Now we ░░░░░░░░ a week away from ░░░░░░░░ end of January Stocks ░░░░░░░░ performed pretty strongly throughout ░░░░░░░░ month The isn t ░░░░░░░░ five hundred hitting a ░░░░░░░░ high on Thursday inching ░░░░░░░░ a p reached in ░░░░░░░░ December just wondering how ░░░░░░░░ of this strong showing ░░░░░░░░ attribute it to the ░░░░░░░░ called January effect John ░░░░░░░░ is that when taken ░░░░░░░░ right now you re ░░░░░░░░ were problems You mention ░░░░░░░░ extremely well in the ░░░░░░░░ three weeks that will ░░░░░░░░ give a celebration after ░░░░░░░░ January tube low in ░░░░░░░░ media low you about ░░░░░░░░ so We are things ░░░░░░░░ strong push really more ░░░░░░░░ spirits We go back ░░░░░░░░ John maynard Keynes talking ░░░░░░░░ emotional elements that are ░░░░░░░░ things higher and right ░░░░░░░░ the change of administration ░░░░░░░░ President Trump there s ░░░░░░░░ strong emotional drivers pushing ░░░░░░░░ higher levels We do ░░░░░░░░ a little bit of ░░░░░░░░ and topping pattern with ░░░░░░░░ range of fifty one ░░░░░░░░ sixty two hundred We ░░░░░░░░ touched about off that ░░░░░░░░ Our time though the ░░░░░░░░ three months we could ░░░░░░░░ the resistance There are ░░░░░░░░ feeling if we do ░░░░░░░░ may put it down ░░░░░░░░ arabia back about 30 ░░░░░░░░ hundred Donald Trump has ░░░░░░░░ officially taken office He ░░░░░░░░ numerous executive orders including ░░░░░░░░ that will have an ░░░░░░░░ on market What kind ░░░░░░░░ sentiment investors now in ░░░░░░░░ a week into administration ░░░░░░░░ in other markets picture ░░░░░░░░ we like certainty and ░░░░░░░░ like knowledge more than ░░░░░░░░ That being said everything ░░░░░░░░ the election was that ░░░░░░░░ re I probably and ░░░░░░░░ are put out there ░░░░░░░░ now we re starting ░░░░░░░░ executive actions being signed ░░░░░░░░ saying Congress actually starting ░░░░░░░░ form around some the ░░░░░░░░ standpoints that they were ░░░░░░░░ trouble as leadership You ░░░░░░░░ her way through a ░░░░░░░░ of time what progress ░░░░░░░░ some more deregulation or ░░░░░░░░ least lightened regulation and ░░░░░░░░ that is a very ░░░░░░░░ boon hear that us ░░░░░░░░ markets positive sentiment The ░░░░░░░░ time also were getting ░░░░░░░░ the fear or the ░░░░░░░░ interests as far as ░░░░░░░░ Federal Reserve what they ░░░░░░░░ gonna be doing as ░░░░░░░░ as prosecutors rates higher ░░░░░░░░ lower and kind of ░░░░░░░░ also a porn potential ░░░░░░░░ cut or the renewal ░░░░░░░░ to j c a ░░░░░░░░ has passed in two ░░░░░░░░ Seventy I wanna talk ░░░░░░░░ those tax cuts now ░░░░░░░░ Economic forum telling business ░░░░░░░░ to manufacture in the ░░░░░░░░ s so have that ░░░░░░░░ in America stamp or ░░░░░░░░ tariffs but he also ░░░░░░░░ low taxes As you ░░░░░░░░ he promised a 15 ░░░░░░░░ corporate tax This is ░░░░░░░░ from the current 20 ░░░░░░░░ percent Can America actually ░░░░░░░░ these tax cuts especially ░░░░░░░░ over there Driving car ░░░░░░░░ that we had to ░░░░░░░░ look at up and ░░░░░░░░ we all know that ░░░░░░░░ federal government they really ░░░░░░░░ to in a raise ░░░░░░░░ comes from one of ░░░░░░░░ ways and so either ░░░░░░░░ tax rate or we ░░░░░░░░ see the economy expand ░░░░░░░░ wiki tax raise the ░░░░░░░░ whether expanding economy with ░░░░░░░░ total gross receipts will ░░░░░░░░ up and those dollars ░░░░░░░░ theoretically place As far ░░░░░░░░ on the that however ░░░░░░░░ need others to be ░░░░░░░░ little bit lower spending ░░░░░░░░ that are happening There ░░░░░░░░ some discussion of saying ░░░░░░░░ large amount of spending ░░░░░░░░ through the actions of ░░░░░░░░ so called those committee ░░░░░░░░ finding ways to find ░░░░░░░░ will see how that ░░░░░░░░ out We do know ░░░░░░░░ s oil limited number ░░░░░░░░ countries We have an ░░░░░░░░ so big concern of ░░░░░░░░ We see a decrease ░░░░░░░░ corporate tax rates What ░░░░░░░░ gonna happen to replace ░░░░░░░░ our the philosophy right ░░░░░░░░ by the administration is ░░░░░░░░ will see Great expansion ░░░░░░░░ the economy will dry ░░░░░░░░ hires even at a ░░░░░░░░ percentage tax rate They ░░░░░░░░ see it that increase ░░░░░░░░ far as an overall ░░░░░░░░ revenues will that much ░░░░░░░░ we re not quite ░░░░░░░░ because we all know ░░░░░░░░ we see us go ░░░░░░░░ play that that could ░░░░░░░░ a counter back on ░░░░░░░░ economic growth that we ░░░░░░░░ the United States At ░░░░░░░░ point I think a ░░░░░░░░ of folks are going ░░░░░░░░ wait and see approach ░░░░░░░░ what actually does materialize ░░░░░░░░ terrorists Well was simply ░░░░░░░░ threat or a bargaining ░░░░░░░░ If we were we ░░░░░░░░ that President Trump in ░░░░░░░░ life has been a ░░░░░░░░ negotiator and so he ░░░░░░░░ to bring things out ░░░░░░░░ big statement it kind ░░░░░░░░ plays out we ll ░░░░░░░░ what the double details ░░░░░░░░ there is concern across ░░░░░░░░ board Will tax cuts ░░░░░░░░ more injurious the what ░░░░░░░░ are beneficial while on ░░░░░░░░ subject of outcomes John ░░░░░░░░ m wondering if mister ░░░░░░░░ s play is more ░░░░░░░░ a leveling things out ░░░░░░░░ than in on Says ░░░░░░░░ is going at the ░░░░░░░░ he s doing these ░░░░░░░░ cuts by we had ░░░░░░░░ debt pile to take ░░░░░░░░ of and then the ░░░░░░░░ is expanding but we ░░░░░░░░ have tax out We ░░░░░░░░ have spending cuts Do ░░░░░░░░ think he s playing ░░░░░░░░ a leveling out game ░░░░░░░░ At his position I ░░░░░░░░ that there s a ░░░░░░░░ swing so we know ░░░░░░░░ with President Biden we ░░░░░░░░ a strong left position ░░░░░░░░ far as and policies ░░░░░░░░ was trouble is just ░░░░░░░░ right position So on ░░░░░░░░ way we do see ░░░░░░░░ leveling out of try ░░░░░░░░ get back More will ░░░░░░░░ a middle of the ░░░░░░░░ policy position over the ░░░░░░░░ of an eight year ░░░░░░░░ All the reality is ░░░░░░░░ challenging to get things ░░░░░░░░ allow because as everyone ░░░░░░░░ it s all levers ░░░░░░░░ pulleys and so whenever ░░░░░░░░ start to move one ░░░░░░░░ one library has impact ░░░░░░░░ unforeseen events happen from ░░░░░░░░ we re The consequences ░░░░░░░░ the other side so ░░░░░░░░ intended to be a ░░░░░░░░ out but how it ░░░░░░░░ plays out could be ░░░░░░░░ totally different than wasn ░░░░░░░░ dissipated Still lurking in ░░░░░░░░ background So far Mr ░░░░░░░░ has decided on 20 ░░░░░░░░ percent terrorism Mexico and ░░░░░░░░ he s also considering ░░░░░░░░ percent across the board ░░░░░░░░ on all Chinese goods ░░░░░░░░ these so we can ░░░░░░░░ starting as early as ░░░░░░░░ First it is a ░░░░░░░░ Threatened earlier John or ░░░░░░░░ do you think prompted ░░░░░░░░ change in direction Is ░░░░░░░░ more of a negotiating ░░░░░░░░ try and get policy ░░░░░░░░ through for different things ░░░░░░░░ so but I think ░░░░░░░░ the reality as he ░░░░░░░░ so concerned they stated ░░░░░░░░ clearly through the entire ░░░░░░░░ of the entire last ░░░░░░░░ year cycle Even before ░░░░░░░░ my concern over the ░░░░░░░░ ness of these southern ░░░░░░░░ with Mexico echo and ░░░░░░░░ I believe that threat ░░░░░░░░ the sixty percent terrorists ░░░░░░░░ far as on Mexican ░░░░░░░░ which now abroad out ░░░░░░░░ 20 five percent it ░░░░░░░░ has to do trying ░░░░░░░░ get the Mexican leadership ░░░░░░░░ do what they can ░░░░░░░░ some ways to slow ░░░░░░░░ a little immigration go ░░░░░░░░ the southern borders Will ░░░░░░░░ see it bit Be ░░░░░░░░ five percent It s ░░░░░░░░ to say however if ░░░░░░░░ this 20 five percent ░░░░░░░░ could lead into some ░░░░░░░░ barlow other countries trying ░░░░░░░░ even the playing field ░░░░░░░░ But we also know ░░░░░░░░ there was a threat ░░░░░░░░ out with Russia with ░░░░░░░░ Putin of additional 10 ░░░░░░░░ tear up on all ░░░░░░░░ good and yes there ░░░░░░░░ a stoppage as far ░░░░░░░░ with attacks or in ░░░░░░░░ So he does seem ░░░░░░░░ have a pattern of ░░░░░░░░ and the how it ░░░░░░░░ out Why know we ░░░░░░░░ had tears in the ░░░░░░░░ President Trump I believe ░░░░░░░░ seems to be of ░░░░░░░░ Well as favorite ballistics ░░░░░░░░ you will however yeah ░░░░░░░░ know terrorists the broad ░░░░░░░░ it leaves in a ░░░░░░░░ way back and forth ░░░░░░░░ a tear for good ░░░░░░░░ not gonna be good ░░░░░░░░ anybody and so the ░░░░░░░░ the day of interesting ░░░░░░░░ out in time However ░░░░░░░░ do think we re ░░░░░░░░ see a terrace a ░░░░░░░░ up probably that elicited ░░░░░░░░ smaller 10 percent level ░░░░░░░░ was some countries with ░░░░░░░░ without a doubt the ░░░░░░░░ of of across the ░░░░░░░░ all goods at 10 ░░░░░░░░ price sounds reasonable Worse ░░░░░░░░ a starter and what ░░░░░░░░ of sore throat governor ░░░░░░░░ High and and see ░░░░░░░░ it goes when they ░░░░░░░░ took My earnings season ░░░░░░░░ John happening right now ░░░░░░░░ obviously saw netflix is ░░░░░░░░ beats performance as following ░░░░░░░░ string seen in big ░░░░░░░░ earnings last week on ░░░░░░░░ and will now be ░░░░░░░░ the remaining big can ░░░░░░░░ tap can take earnings ░░░░░░░░ a padded over the ░░░░░░░░ three weeks Now if ░░░░░░░░ bullishness continues how much ░░░░░░░░ do you think stocks ░░░░░░░░ room to scale considering ░░░░░░░░ view that the are ░░░░░░░░ Of the day at ░░░░░░░░ moment with sort of ░░░░░░░░ financial institute of earnings ░░░░░░░░ the previous week j ░░░░░░░░ m s be more ░░░░░░░░ a Bank of America ░░░░░░░░ are stronger is beat ░░░░░░░░ Goldman came out strong ░░░░░░░░ her up netflix with ░░░░░░░░ great earnings and great ░░░░░░░░ huge increase As far ░░░░░░░░ number of subscribers will ░░░░░░░░ ll it just came ░░░░░░░░ today It will little ░░░░░░░░ phenomenal numbers Up next ░░░░░░░░ be a big cap ░░░░░░░░ coming out and that ░░░░░░░░ the be a driver ░░░░░░░░ know that so much ░░░░░░░░ movement the sb five ░░░░░░░░ over the course the ░░░░░░░░ three years ago by ░░░░░░░░ handful of names Now ░░░░░░░░ think the wouldn t ░░░░░░░░ this is that right ░░░░░░░░ keeps esparza shiller pe ░░░░░░░░ we re sitting at ░░░░░░░░ second highest level in ░░░░░░░░ memory and whenever we ░░░░░░░░ that anymore he will ░░░░░░░░ folks the schiller p ░░░░░░░░ E and access really ░░░░░░░░ adjusted and so every ░░░░░░░░ that we saw that ░░░░░░░░ last How we saw ░░░░░░░░ number similar to this ░░░░░░░░ back in July of ░░░░░░░░ one coming off the ░░░░░░░░ bounce and that all ░░░░░░░░ a sudden then we ░░░░░░░░ inflation can literally take ░░░░░░░░ route and then research ░░░░░░░░ interest rates Eleven I ░░░░░░░░ a 13 month we ░░░░░░░░ a pronounced decrease The ░░░░░░░░ time that we ever ░░░░░░░░ as far as with ░░░░░░░░ shiller pe index was ░░░░░░░░ in the end of ░░░░░░░░ 90 nine in a ░░░░░░░░ in the mid seventies ░░░░░░░░ was after the tech ░░░░░░░░ and then all of ░░░░░░░░ sudden What are we ░░░░░░░░ We saw a huge ░░░░░░░░ three years the us ░░░░░░░░ of negative returns Yet ░░░░░░░░ me get this elevated ░░░░░░░░ and p either we ░░░░░░░░ to say what happens ░░░░░░░░ those two the two ░░░░░░░░ a what price and ░░░░░░░░ he it s all ░░░░░░░░ sudden earnings don t ░░░░░░░░ up What s gonna ░░░░░░░░ prices gonna go down ░░░░░░░░ the way a start ░░░░░░░░ just based upon current ░░░░░░░░ and expectation of future ░░░░░░░░ in near term cycles ░░░░░░░░ real low in central ░░░░░░░░ replays but lens insurance ░░░░░░░░ alive They came out ░░░░░░░░ their earnings number disappointed ░░░░░░░░ lost either half percent ░░░░░░░░ of the prize our ░░░░░░░░ and concern as we ░░░░░░░░ pass as first quarter ░░░░░░░░ If earnings do I ░░░░░░░░ expectations move forward or ░░░░░░░░ is highly elevated level ░░░░░░░░ christ earnings look at ░░░░░░░░ schiller will that all ░░░░░░░░ sudden were set up ░░░░░░░░ a big take down ░░░░░░░░ know I think with ░░░░░░░░ look at the broader ░░░░░░░░ cycle We know from ░░░░░░░░ term low in artillery ░░░░░░░░ It takes 18 to ░░░░░░░░ four months in that ░░░░░░░░ The last low we ░░░░░░░░ was 20 seven months ░░░░░░░░ So now we re ░░░░░░░░ normative times We have ░░░░░░░░ stretch market higher valuations ░░░░░░░░ really takes a small ░░░░░░░░ flick Our concern we ░░░░░░░░ folks to be all ░░░░░░░░ you measure them to ░░░░░░░░ values of the company ░░░░░░░░ not just a prices ░░░░░░░░ the storylines Absolutely absolutely ░░░░░░░░ was a fantastic analysis ░░░░░░░░ of way Things are ░░░░░░░░ the moment anyhow why ░░░░░░░░ think that stocks are ░░░░░░░░ all the valley especially ░░░░░░░░ the isn t be ░░░░░░░░ hundred I any warnings ░░░░░░░░ for joining us this ░░░░░░░░ Of to have you ░░░░░░░░ again You anita says ░░░░░░░░ s John creek my ░░░░░░░░ investment officer with quit ░░░░░░░░ wealth advisers bringing us ░░░░░░░░ the end of our ░░░░░░░░ Our here anita fest,