RUSH TRANSCRIPT On pulse ░░░░░░░░ We live here now ░░░░░░░░ interactive brokers studio streaming ░░░░░░░░ on youtube as well ░░░░░░░░ to the yet economic ░░░░░░░░ points you sell optically ░░░░░░░░ job summer so we ░░░░░░░░ do that with Jeffrey ░░░░░░░░ chief economist for peyton ░░░░░░░░ regal Jeffrey Thank you ░░░░░░░░ much for joining starfleet ░░░░░░░░ know you re based ░░░░░░░░ Los Angeles If we ░░░░░░░░ just get a couple ░░░░░░░░ from yeah you re ░░░░░░░░ on the ground there ░░░░░░░░ Angeles The families have ░░░░░░░░ property and loved ones ░░░░░░░░ big shout out to ░░░░░░░░ the first responders I ░░░░░░░░ it s it s ░░░░░░░░ s amazing working through ░░░░░░░░ night here to to ░░░░░░░░ and keep things in ░░░░░░░░ I mean this is ░░░░░░░░ ongoing situation we re ░░░░░░░░ in the midst of ░░░░░░░░ Very fortunate and it ░░░░░░░░ it s great to ░░░░░░░░ that the community in ░░░░░░░░ Angeles lot of neighbors ░░░░░░░░ together and and helping ░░░░░░░░ other side think that ░░░░░░░░ s been Whole affair ░░░░░░░░ Jeffrey Our thoughts and ░░░░░░░░ are offs of see ░░░░░░░░ our good friends out ░░░░░░░░ in Los Angeles and ░░░░░░░░ safe Nonfarm payrolls A ░░░░░░░░ here today will blow ░░░░░░░░ takeaways Considered yeah usually ░░░░░░░░ upbeat it s kind ░░░░░░░░ hard to be upbeat ░░░░░░░░ in l a on ░░░░░░░░ day like this but ░░░░░░░░ other jobs data is ░░░░░░░░ I guess a few ░░░░░░░░ that have been debunked ░░░░░░░░ was that Paul high ░░░░░░░░ we re going to ░░░░░░░░ the economy is really ░░░░░░░░ t happened average payroll ░░░░░░░░ in 20 20 four ░░░░░░░░ guess when when all ░░░░░░░░ are said done looks ░░░░░░░░ it ll be around ░░░░░░░░ hundred and 80 six ░░░░░░░░ monthly average pace which ░░░░░░░░ a little bit slower ░░░░░░░░ 20 20 three but ░░░░░░░░ job growth It s ░░░░░░░░ in that unemployment rate ░░░░░░░░ about four percent for ░░░░░░░░ last seven months really ░░░░░░░░ is really remarkable disability ░░░░░░░░ see there So I ░░░░░░░░ this is a great ░░░░░░░░ report All things considered ░░░░░░░░ inflation continues to moderate ░░░░░░░░ it This is really ░░░░░░░░ soft landing that we ░░░░░░░░ been hoping for and ░░░░░░░░ different the Fed has ░░░░░░░░ hoping for It s ░░░░░░░░ s It s all ░░░░░░░░ great news actually at ░░░░░░░░ all fronts For me ░░░░░░░░ what we think about ░░░░░░░░ strength of the U ░░░░░░░░ economy by Of course ░░░░░░░░ are some speculations about ░░░░░░░░ this can affect the ░░░░░░░░ s rate cut trajectory ░░░░░░░░ course you mention in ░░░░░░░░ is still scope for ░░░░░░░░ cuts and 20 20 ░░░░░░░░ but when what s ░░░░░░░░ time we have yeah ░░░░░░░░ your view I think ░░░░░░░░ think the most important ░░░░░░░░ for investors is that ░░░░░░░░ or soften the labor ░░░░░░░░ I think the very ░░░░░░░░ with where things are ░░░░░░░░ far as the labor ░░░░░░░░ being a threat to ░░░░░░░░ inflation outlook I think ░░░░░░░░ those risks have diminished ░░░░░░░░ average hourly earnings back ░░░░░░░░ four percent So we ░░░░░░░░ we re not in ░░░░░░░░ situation where we were ░░░░░░░░ years ago where people ░░░░░░░░ about a wage price ░░░░░░░░ sort of spiral So ░░░░░░░░ don t I don ░░░░░░░░ think the Fed needs ░░░░░░░░ try to slow the ░░░░░░░░ market They would like ░░░░░░░░ stick the landing They ░░░░░░░░ like to get a ░░░░░░░░ landing so but I ░░░░░░░░ they can be patient ░░░░░░░░ here I think for ░░░░░░░░ That means waiting to ░░░░░░░░ if inflation continues to ░░░░░░░░ We got it very ░░░░░░░░ core p c E ░░░░░░░░ for November just just ░░░░░░░░ the end of the ░░░░░░░░ So we get more ░░░░░░░░ like that to start ░░░░░░░░ 20 five I think ░░░░░░░░ could be very good ░░░░░░░░ so I think they ░░░░░░░░ wait be patient no ░░░░░░░░ to cut rates but ░░░░░░░░ do think they will ░░░░░░░░ rates over the course ░░░░░░░░ year Right now we ░░░░░░░░ still penciled in at ░░░░░░░░ caught But that s ░░░░░░░░ driven by inflation getting ░░░░░░░░ to two percent at ░░░░░░░░ point yeah it looks ░░░░░░░░ we look at the ░░░░░░░░ of Michigan data and ░░░░░░░░ obviously some and a ░░░░░░░░ year inflation outlook five ░░░░░░░░ 10 year inflation out ░░░░░░░░ of those ticked up ░░░░░░░░ about three point three ░░░░░░░░ much higher it I ░░░░░░░░ noticed we hired the ░░░░░░░░ they were last month ░░░░░░░░ I wouldn t want ░░░░░░░░ think that data reflects ░░░░░░░░ think that reflects sentiment ░░░░░░░░ I mean that you ░░░░░░░░ every client that I ░░░░░░░░ to colleagues and friends ░░░░░░░░ family members they re ░░░░░░░░ worried that inflation will ░░░░░░░░ back up whether you ░░░░░░░░ that s something they ░░░░░░░░ seen in their day ░░░░░░░░ day or it s ░░░░░░░░ the fear or maybe ░░░░░░░░ economic policy policy shifts ░░░░░░░░ are going to be ░░░░░░░░ here That will push ░░░░░░░░ back up that that ░░░░░░░░ definitely palpable fear that ░░░░░░░░ hear express so maybe ░░░░░░░░ s been shown up ░░░░░░░░ sentiment indicators Looking at ░░░░░░░░ at the you know ░░░░░░░░ the actual data for ░░░░░░░░ pc we re we ░░░░░░░░ pretty pretty optimistic ball ░░░░░░░░ had that point one ░░░░░░░░ month a month reading ░░░░░░░░ November and you will ░░░░░░░░ run the numbers if ░░░░░░░░ for pc gets to ░░░░░░░░ percent year on year ░░░░░░░░ sometime in the third ░░░░░░░░ of two of this ░░░░░░░░ of thousand 20 five ░░░░░░░░ will be oh to ░░░░░░░░ fantastic News fought for ░░░░░░░░ for consumers especially so ░░░░░░░░ think that s maybe ░░░░░░░░ driving things more than ░░░░░░░░ inflation data that we ░░░░░░░░ seeing Behind the pick ░░░░░░░░ in the December payrolls ░░░░░░░░ The board The surprise ░░░░░░░░ is probably that the ░░░░░░░░ payrolls it being in ░░░░░░░░ leisure and hospitality I ░░░░░░░░ overall just everyone s ░░░░░░░░ that the hot higher ░░░░░░░░ rates were going to ░░░░░░░░ to a a cool ░░░░░░░░ a bit more notable ░░░░░░░░ down and we really ░░░░░░░░ really haven t seen ░░░░░░░░ the up the three ░░░░░░░░ moving average was a ░░░░░░░░ and seventy k so ░░░░░░░░ if you exclude the ░░░░░░░░ reading you still see ░░░░░░░░ pretty solid three More ░░░░░░░░ over all in the ░░░░░░░░ of payrolls last few ░░░░░░░░ than in many people ░░░░░░░░ expected Jeffrey Thank you ░░░░░░░░ much We appreciate a ░░░░░░░░ Cleveland chief economist paid ░░░░░░░░ regal He is based ░░░░░░░░ Los Angeles so you ░░░░░░░░ him and all our ░░░░░░░░ friends in Los Angeles ░░░░░░░░ here s a deal ░░░░░░░░ a set of these ░░░░░░░░ Here.