Date
Summary
David Laut Appears on Channel News Asia to Discuss Federal Reserve Chair Signaled Caution on Rate Cuts
Source
Channel News Asia
Name: Channel News Asia
URL: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/
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–
Persons
David Laut
Name: David Laut
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Uploaded
11/14/2024 07:29 pm
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0:06:19
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Transcript
RUSH TRANSCRIPT Officer at ░░░░░░░░ and financial joins us ░░░░░░░░ more now David thanks ░░░░░░░░ coming on the show ░░░░░░░░ s talk equities of ░░░░░░░░ kind of moving low ░░░░░░░░ wild yield spiked after ░░░░░░░░ remarks at the fit ░░░░░░░░ to be no rush ░░░░░░░░ cut rates and he ░░░░░░░░ on a pretty hawkish ░░░░░░░░ What can we see ░░░░░░░░ December and what the ░░░░░░░░ s policy path look ░░░░░░░░ look like to You ░░░░░░░░ beyond that Much of ░░░░░░░░ surprise that he may ░░░░░░░░ cautious given the last ░░░░░░░░ weeks of action politically ░░░░░░░░ in the United States ░░░░░░░░ when you look at ░░░░░░░░ data when you look ░░░░░░░░ labor supply labor demand ░░░░░░░░ is starting to wane ░░░░░░░░ as we see inflation ░░░░░░░░ to move lower within ░░░░░░░░ view just a blip ░░░░░░░░ the radar here recently ░░░░░░░░ it relates to use ░░░░░░░░ prices I think that ░░░░░░░░ re going to continue ░░░░░░░░ have reasons to lower ░░░░░░░░ rates not wanting to ░░░░░░░░ a headwind to the ░░░░░░░░ So I see another ░░░░░░░░ five basis point cut ░░░░░░░░ before the end of ░░░░░░░░ year and then looking ░░░░░░░░ further cuts next year ░░░░░░░░ course cautiously looking at ░░░░░░░░ data but at the ░░░░░░░░ time not wanting to ░░░░░░░░ the job market here ░░░░░░░░ the United States marine ░░░░░░░░ area also seeing market ░░░░░░░░ gonna show some signs ░░░░░░░░ fatigue they after that ░░░░░░░░ election rally main gauges ░░░░░░░░ fact they are at ░░░░░░░░ lowest level in a ░░░░░░░░ A more more more ░░░░░░░░ a pullback you re ░░░░░░░░ are and how you ░░░░░░░░ reading this is there ░░░░░░░░ optimism for that Trump ░░░░░░░░ especially as we wait ░░░░░░░░ hear more about his ░░░░░░░░ going to get clues ░░░░░░░░ on who he picks ░░░░░░░░ our top roles I ░░░░░░░░ technically we ve seen ░░░░░░░░ little bit of breath ░░░░░░░░ to decline there and ░░░░░░░░ re running out a ░░░░░░░░ bit of steam As ░░░░░░░░ mentioned I think we ░░░░░░░░ see consolidation here in ░░░░░░░░ short term maybe over ░░░░░░░░ next week or two ░░░░░░░░ further strain than to ░░░░░░░░ end of the year ░░░░░░░░ about the time we ░░░░░░░░ Santa Claus come to ░░░░░░░░ as it relates to ░░░░░░░░ year I am a ░░░░░░░░ more cautious We haven ░░░░░░░░ seen a correction above ░░░░░░░░ percent In the last ░░░░░░░░ years we usually average ░░░░░░░░ 14 percent correction each ░░░░░░░░ here in the us ░░░░░░░░ markets I might look ░░░░░░░░ next year being similar ░░░░░░░░ late nineties similar environments ░░░░░░░░ leading high interest rates ░░░░░░░░ valuations You saw in ░░░░░░░░ late nineties returns that ░░░░░░░░ between 20 and 30 ░░░░░░░░ but with intro year ░░░░░░░░ also between 10 and ░░░░░░░░ percent So I do ░░░░░░░░ further upside for some ░░░░░░░░ the new stimulative actions ░░░░░░░░ are being looked to ░░░░░░░░ but with more volatility ░░░░░░░░ I think it s ░░░░░░░░ that investors are aware ░░░░░░░░ there may be some ░░░░░░░░ here to pause and ░░░░░░░░ for better chances to ░░░░░░░░ If we only have ░░░░░░░░ couple more percent to ░░░░░░░░ upside before we might ░░░░░░░░ something broader as it ░░░░░░░░ to a correction What ░░░░░░░░ a key risk of ░░░░░░░░ Mag seven you ve ░░░░░░░░ the top 10 companies ░░░░░░░░ the us and p ░░░░░░░░ hundred now almost 30 ░░░░░░░░ percent of the index ░░░░░░░░ s the most we ░░░░░░░░ seen in possibly ever ░░░░░░░░ at some point they ░░░░░░░░ going to be looking ░░░░░░░░ technology Spend of these ░░░░░░░░ tech companies say hey ░░░░░░░░ me the money Are ░░░░░░░░ going to start to ░░░░░░░░ our return on that ░░░░░░░░ That being said I ░░░░░░░░ t think that a ░░░░░░░░ wave is over yet ░░░░░░░░ I m actually getting ░░░░░░░░ excited about it longer ░░░░░░░░ As we see those ░░░░░░░░ transition from transactional types ░░░░░░░░ businesses like an nvidia ░░░░░░░░ they re selling a ░░░░░░░░ at a time to ░░░░░░░░ revenue types of businesses ░░░░░░░░ you see with a ░░░░░░░░ or Facebook or other ░░░░░░░░ companies where they can ░░░░░░░░ that technology on a ░░░░░░░░ basis and I a ░░░░░░░░ more excited about those ░░░░░░░░ of revenue streams that ░░░░░░░░ am those that are ░░░░░░░░ more supply and demand ░░░░░░░░ That Obvious and pay ░░░░░░░░ hundred finishing the especially ░░░░░░░░ ahead of a shift ░░░░░░░░ Washington control One hundred ░░░░░░░░ sixty two hundred in ░░░░░░░░ us p Five hundred ░░░░░░░░ be completely reasonable You ░░░░░░░░ it s interesting with ░░░░░░░░ taking over it s ░░░░░░░░ lot of the same ░░░░░░░░ right small cap potentially ░░░░░░░░ long duration assets whether ░░░░░░░░ s Bitcoin technology gold ░░░░░░░░ of those were similar ░░░░░░░░ of who got elected ░░░░░░░░ s just there s ░░░░░░░░ a Trump kicker right ░░░░░░░░ banks Now you got ░░░░░░░░ deregulation and more emanate ░░░░░░░░ Bitcoin there s a ░░░░░░░░ of a national Bitcoin ░░░░░░░░ with banks You ve ░░░░░░░░ again deregulation working in ░░░░░░░░ favor small cap tariffs ░░░░░░░░ interest rates we re ░░░░░░░░ them beforehand Now you ░░░░░░░░ got potentially more U ░░░░░░░░ focused on it Investment ░░░░░░░░ of course is what ░░░░░░░░ small cats are exposed ░░░░░░░░ so point being a ░░░░░░░░ of the same trades ░░░░░░░░ amplified by that election ░░░░░░░░ and I see you ░░░░░░░░ think that carries in ░░░░░░░░ next year as well ░░░░░░░░ investment strategy in particular ░░░░░░░░ to allocate your money ░░░░░░░░ that market especially also ░░░░░░░░ new up the Fed ░░░░░░░░ to cut rates despite ░░░░░░░░ signaling that they may ░░░░░░░░ be in a hurry ░░░░░░░░ do so Your time ░░░░░░░░ and how answer you ░░░░░░░░ get that money invested ░░░░░░░░ we re doing right ░░░░░░░░ for clients as using ░░░░░░░░ term bonds as a ░░░░░░░░ place We can lock ░░░░░░░░ our interest payments for ░░░░░░░░ least 18 months or ░░░░░░░░ around that five percent ░░░░░░░░ hey Possibly we get ░░░░░░░░ little bit of price ░░░░░░░░ as the short end ░░░░░░░░ the curve continues to ░░░░░░░░ down here over the ░░░░░░░░ 11 months and look ░░░░░░░░ those spots I d ░░░░░░░░ like to see a ░░░░░░░░ percent correction at least ░░░░░░░░ we started deploy some ░░░░░░░░ that money on our ░░░░░░░░ s behalf But I ░░░░░░░░ think that a short ░░░░░░░░ bond location even as ░░░░░░░░ money market because we ░░░░░░░░ seen money market rates ░░░░░░░░ down quickly as the ░░░░░░░░ does so again short ░░░░░░░░ bonds and looking for ░░░░░░░░ opportunity of course dollar ░░░░░░░░ averaging is a good ░░░░░░░░ to If you don ░░░░░░░░ want to be so ░░░░░░░░ Their chief investment officer ░░░░░░░░ financial.
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