Kornacki: ‘The Republican Coalition that Elected Trump Last Tuesday, It’s Younger, It’s More Diverse, It’s More Blue-Collar than Before for Trump’

DIAZ BALART You have ░░░░░░░░ data on the changing ░░░░░░░░ coalitions we saw in ░░░░░░░░ election KORNACKI Yeah Jose ░░░░░░░░ s take a look ░░░░░░░░ basically at what s ░░░░░░░░ as the coalition that ░░░░░░░░ Donald Trump because I ░░░░░░░░ there s some striking ░░░░░░░░ here from when he ░░░░░░░░ came on the scene ░░░░░░░░ ran 8 years ago ░░░░░░░░ Republican coalition that elected ░░░░░░░░ last Tuesday it s ░░░░░░░░ it s more diverse ░░░░░░░░ s more blue collar ░░░░░░░░ before for Trump and ░░░░░░░░ that at any point ░░░░░░░░ the Republican Party in ░░░░░░░░ history This is what ░░░░░░░░ mean says pre Trump ░░░░░░░░ here that s the ░░░░░░░░ presidential election before Donald ░░░░░░░░ came on the scene ░░░░░░░░ that would be 2012 ░░░░░░░░ Mitt Romney was the ░░░░░░░░ nominee In that election ░░░░░░░░ youngest voters voters under ░░░░░░░░ went for the Democrats ░░░░░░░░ 23 points the voters ░░░░░░░░ incomes under 50 000 ░░░░░░░░ by 22 points voters ░░░░░░░░ a college degree Democrats ░░░░░░░░ 4 points That s ░░░░░░░░ Trump came along And ░░░░░░░░ 2024 this is how ░░░░░░░░ groups split last week ░░░░░░░░ at this the young ░░░░░░░░ voters under 30 that ░░░░░░░░ for Democrats cut more ░░░░░░░░ in half Under 50 ░░░░░░░░ has swung all the ░░░░░░░░ over now to a ░░░░░░░░ win of 3 points ░░░░░░░░ without a college degree ░░░░░░░░ 4 for the Democrats ░░░░░░░░ a 20 point shift ░░░░░░░░ 14 for Trump and ░░░░░░░░ Republicans Look at the ░░░░░░░░ ethnic group breakdown here ░░░░░░░░ see it as well ░░░░░░░░ voters still a very ░░░░░░░░ Democratic constituency but look ░░░░░░░░ Trump it was nearly ░░░░░░░░ 90 point margin among ░░░░░░░░ voters for Democrats Last ░░░░░░░░ it was 72 that ░░░░░░░░ a 15 point shift ░░░░░░░░ is the big one ░░░░░░░░ voters it was a ░░░░░░░░ point margin that was ░░░░░░░░ Democratic advantage before Trump ░░░░░░░░ week down to just ░░░░░░░░ points And Asian Americans ░░░░░░░░ was nearly a 50 ░░░░░░░░ margin for Democrats before ░░░░░░░░ down to 15 points ░░░░░░░░ those are the changes ░░░░░░░░ powered Trump powered the ░░░░░░░░ coalition And as Trump ░░░░░░░░ seems set to win ░░░░░░░░ national popular vote that ░░░░░░░░ a big reason why ░░░░░░░░ didn t just make ░░░░░░░░ in the swing states ░░░░░░░░ got him the Electoral ░░░░░░░░ he made big gains ░░░░░░░░ big blue states He ░░░░░░░░ t win any electoral ░░░░░░░░ in places like New ░░░░░░░░ New Jersey California but ░░░░░░░░ got closer than he ░░░░░░░░ before And that s ░░░░░░░░ millions of votes and ░░░░░░░░ s how he gets ░░░░░░░░ national popular vote Meanwhile ░░░░░░░░ talk about the Republican ░░░░░░░░ becoming more diverse more ░░░░░░░░ collar the opposite movement ░░░░░░░░ re seeing in the ░░░░░░░░ Party So again before ░░░░░░░░ Democrats Republicans had won ░░░░░░░░ white vote by 20 ░░░░░░░░ It s down 4 ░░░░░░░░ Republicans won it by ░░░░░░░░ last week But you ░░░░░░░░ white voters are nearly ░░░░░░░░ percent of the electorate ░░░░░░░░ so a 4 point ░░░░░░░░ there away from the ░░░░░░░░ toward the Democrats that ░░░░░░░░ significant Voters with college ░░░░░░░░ it was a 2 ░░░░░░░░ Democratic margin Now it ░░░░░░░░ a 13 point Democratic ░░░░░░░░ Wealthy voters 100 000 ░░░░░░░░ more in income it ░░░░░░░░ 10 points Republican now ░░░░░░░░ s 5 points for ░░░░░░░░ Democrats So the coalitions ░░░░░░░░ changed here Jose over ░░░░░░░░ last 8 years and ░░░░░░░░ in the 2024 election ░░░░░░░░ you see what that ░░░░░░░░ worth for Donald Trump ░░░░░░░░ victory in the popular ░░░░░░░░ DIAZ BALART Wow that ░░░░░░░░ striking that income 100 ░░░░░░░░ or more and that ░░░░░░░░ you know from 10 ░░░░░░░░ 5 I mean that ░░░░░░░░ an extraordinary change in ░░░░░░░░ a couple of years ░░░░░░░░ Yeah and I mean ░░░░░░░░ ve been seeing we ░░░░░░░░ seeing signs of this ░░░░░░░░ know back in 2020 ░░░░░░░░ were seeing signs of ░░░░░░░░ Republican coalition It wasn ░░░░░░░░ enough for Trump then ░░░░░░░░ saw him make gains ░░░░░░░░ Hispanic voters You saw ░░░░░░░░ make gains you know ░░░░░░░░ with voters without a ░░░░░░░░ degree And it just ░░░░░░░░ escalated in this campaign ░░░░░░░░ again it leaves questions ░░░░░░░░ think we can show ░░░░░░░░ here this is the ░░░░░░░░ gap as well by ░░░░░░░░ way but I wanted ░░░░░░░░ show you the next ░░░░░░░░ These are some of ░░░░░░░░ gains you saw for ░░░░░░░░ in big blue states ░░░░░░░░ of those shifts we ░░░░░░░░ showed you demographically Again ░░░░░░░░ are all still big ░░░░░░░░ states But look at ░░░░░░░░ improvements here for Trump ░░░░░░░░ Democratic margin coming down ░░░░░░░░ in all of those ░░░░░░░░ It s because of ░░░░░░░░ coalition we just showed ░░░░░░░░ there.”