RUSH TRANSCRIPT Players in ░░░░░░░░ momentum trades two days ░░░░░░░░ row pilot on some ░░░░░░░░ join me here in ░░░░░░░░ in Chicago Brian van ░░░░░░░░ is a president s ░░░░░░░░ c I o m ░░░░░░░░ p wealth advisers brown ░░░░░░░░ to have here They ░░░░░░░░ grits to you you ░░░░░░░░ arriving in the midst ░░░░░░░░ like the best rally ░░░░░░░░ ve had and like ░░░░░░░░ week plus Interesting yeah ░░░░░░░░ you know it s ░░░░░░░░ push pull between is ░░░░░░░░ serious are we concerned ░░░░░░░░ inflation with the sepia ░░░░░░░░ I came out this ░░░░░░░░ and some of the ░░░░░░░░ real economic data think ░░░░░░░░ showing that the us ░░░░░░░░ is really not going ░░░░░░░░ a recession I think ░░░░░░░░ the short term what ░░░░░░░░ re seeing is some ░░░░░░░░ to say look earnings ░░░░░░░░ is still there still ░░░░░░░░ to expand over the ░░░░░░░░ of the year We ░░░░░░░░ the backdrop of fed ░░░░░░░░ rates and I think ░░░░░░░░ now there s again ░░░░░░░░ this back and forth ░░░░░░░░ the bulls in the ░░░░░░░░ to say what worth ░░░░░░░░ risk posturing I will ░░░░░░░░ highlight though and he ░░░░░░░░ before in the earlier ░░░░░░░░ that here we re ░░░░░░░░ focused on this rate ░░░░░░░░ next week Is it ░░░░░░░░ five hours fifty but ░░░░░░░░ think the most important ░░░░░░░░ that investors should focus ░░░░░░░░ is the outlook of ░░░░░░░░ the Fed is going ░░░░░░░░ take reach into the ░░░░░░░░ because in this September ░░░░░░░░ is one of the ░░░░░░░░ meetings there s four ░░░░░░░░ them annually we re ░░░░░░░░ issue out guidance and ░░░░░░░░ even if they only ░░░░░░░░ 20 five when I ░░░░░░░░ is a good way ░░░░░░░░ start you can back ░░░░░░░░ how many rate cuts ░░░░░░░░ re going to do ░░░░░░░░ the end of the ░░░░░░░░ and how much is ░░░░░░░░ the table for next ░░░░░░░░ and that s actually ░░░░░░░░ the positioning should be ░░░░░░░░ stocks versus bonds considering ░░░░░░░░ outlook for rate cuts ░░░░░░░░ love that very interesting ░░░░░░░░ s wrong with that ░░░░░░░░ the idea that know ░░░░░░░░ there was a very ░░░░░░░░ possibility like up until ░░░░░░░░ would have to go ░░░░░░░░ like when markets were ░░░░░░░░ hit bonds around and ░░░░░░░░ and look like almost ░░░░░░░░ stock market going to ░░░░░░░░ them to go fifty ░░░░░░░░ if we keep crashing ░░░░░░░░ just buy bonds You ░░░░░░░░ what s going to ░░░░░░░░ not fifty if we ░░░░░░░░ in there but as ░░░░░░░░ odds of come off ░░░░░░░░ a point in shipping ░░░░░░░░ out as the market ░░░░░░░░ think for Bob Deep ░░░░░░░░ if they don t ░░░░░░░░ us fifty now where ░░░░░░░░ look back just in ░░░░░░░░ lot like under 11 ░░░░░░░░ right How many times ░░░░░░░░ we gotten the rate ░░░░░░░░ correct zero right yeah ░░░░░░░░ now when we think ░░░░░░░░ what the feds going ░░░░░░░░ do That s Why ░░░░░░░░ m saying that alec ░░░░░░░░ super important because if ░░░░░░░░ Fed does not believe ░░░░░░░░ they re gonna cut ░░░░░░░░ the same level that ░░░░░░░░ participants have price then ░░░░░░░░ re going to see ░░░░░░░░ yields on the 10 ░░░░░░░░ go back up over ░░░░░░░░ seventy three seventy five ░░░░░░░░ you re going to ░░░░░░░░ to stay short duration ░░░░░░░░ bonds However if the ░░░░░░░░ is showing signs that ░░░░░░░░ are going to cut ░░░░░░░░ why Because the economy ░░░░░░░░ data showing look stable ░░░░░░░░ market people making money ░░░░░░░░ over year ahead of ░░░░░░░░ right we do see ░░░░░░░░ slowdown They know they ░░░░░░░░ to come to the ░░░░░░░░ but they don t ░░░░░░░░ to do it all ░░░░░░░░ once to your point ░░░░░░░░ re in that space ░░░░░░░░ or over the right ░░░░░░░░ then you actually have ░░░░░░░░ cyclical environment that is ░░░░░░░░ of stocks both in ░░░░░░░░ growth but more in ░░░░░░░░ value camp and you ░░░░░░░░ have the ability You ░░░░░░░░ the drivers of 20 ░░░░░░░░ titular a year where ░░░░░░░░ gowns are both down ░░░░░░░░ digits we get not ░░░░░░░░ right All we re ░░░░░░░░ with is the unintended ░░░░░░░░ of policy decisions are ░░░░░░░░ the other way bringing ░░░░░░░░ down from a level ░░░░░░░░ is restrictive to a ░░░░░░░░ policy decision that Is ░░░░░░░░ to that and that ░░░░░░░░ the view that I ░░░░░░░░ for the eighteenth and ░░░░░░░░ March of next year ░░░░░░░░ even November when they ░░░░░░░░ to look at their ░░░░░░░░ zone where these real ░░░░░░░░ are going That s ░░░░░░░░ s going to affect ░░░░░░░░ prices are jaws asset ░░░░░░░░ in this positioning that ░░░░░░░░ re talking about this ░░░░░░░░ Few things Bonds and ░░░░░░░░ performing together for you ░░░░░░░░ some the feds are ░░░░░░░░ a mistake right that ░░░░░░░░ pandora s box is ░░░░░░░░ been open for unemployment ░░░░░░░░ can t close it ░░░░░░░░ That s number one ░░░░░░░░ s kind of assumption ░░░░░░░░ we got stops in ░░░░░░░░ Go up for this ░░░░░░░░ work right Can I ░░░░░░░░ you one fun fact ░░░░░░░░ most people don t ░░░░░░░░ it since 19 80 ░░░░░░░░ 10 times it s ░░░░░░░░ four out of those ░░░░░░░░ did they actually we ░░░░░░░░ late to the game ░░░░░░░░ drive the economy into ░░░░░░░░ energy or session sure ░░░░░░░░ were six times that ░░░░░░░░ did have the quote ░░░░░░░░ quote soft landing we ░░░░░░░░ stocks and bonds Still ░░░░░░░░ it s possible right ░░░░░░░░ we re asking for ░░░░░░░░ impossible to my point ░░░░░░░░ Depth of cut trajectory ░░░░░░░░ you think they need ░░░░░░░░ show for markets that ░░░░░░░░ they hit that sweet ░░░░░░░░ So is that like ░░░░░░░░ hundred plus like bibs ░░░░░░░░ from here to end ░░░░░░░░ year where do you ░░░░░░░░ that need is by ░░░░░░░░ market to see how ░░░░░░░░ they ago so Looking ░░░░░░░░ at least a full ░░░░░░░░ percent cut over series ░░░░░░░░ three meetings and then ░░░░░░░░ year pricing in another ░░░░░░░░ percent because when you ░░░░░░░░ about where the inflation ░░░░░░░░ are and also taken ░░░░░░░░ account p p I ░░░░░░░░ into a services economy ░░░░░░░░ percent of our economy ░░░░░░░░ need to bring down ░░░░░░░░ rates at least somewhere ░░░░░░░░ maybe hundred and fifty ░░░░░░░░ hundred basis points to ░░░░░░░░ back at neutral policy ░░░░░░░░ realize it s not ░░░░░░░░ right on I m ░░░░░░░░ on invert the curve ░░░░░░░░ That would be kind ░░░░░░░░ like meaning their expectations ░░░░░░░░ around one hundred pips ░░░░░░░░ three meetings this year ░░░░░░░░ seems like then at ░░░░░░░░ moment come back to ░░░░░░░░ duration comment Then the ░░░░░░░░ you want to be ░░░░░░░░ duration of the markets ░░░░░░░░ out the Fed already ░░░░░░░░ for what they can ░░░░░░░░ Well if you hold ░░░░░░░░ view that our for ░░░░░░░░ just going back to ░░░░░░░░ slow growing economy Consumers ░░░░░░░░ still spending money but ░░░░░░░░ a lower level and ░░░░░░░░ earnings outlooks for this ░░░░░░░░ into next year going ░░░░░░░░ be double digits Member ░░░░░░░░ come back to fundamentals ░░░░░░░░ earnings at the end ░░░░░░░░ the day that is ░░░░░░░░ to drive inflation lower ░░░░░░░░ that type of environment ░░░░░░░░ the real economic data ░░░░░░░░ the services industry is ░░░░░░░░ intact So as a ░░░░░░░░ the Fed does realize ░░░░░░░░ don t need to ░░░░░░░░ as restrictive They need ░░░░░░░░ move in that direction ░░░░░░░░ does help to spread ░░░░░░░░ better returns for risk ░░░░░░░░ better risk adjusted returns ░░░░░░░░ the value side small ░░░░░░░░ side and on the ░░░░░░░░ income side You want ░░░░░░░░ start to gradually shift ░░░░░░░░ short two more in ░░░░░░░░ minute duration to take ░░░░░░░░ of that risk of ░░░░░░░░ word and fixed income ░░░░░░░░ that kind of suggest ░░░░░░░░ there s gonna be ░░░░░░░░ natural drag on the ░░░░░░░░ that s offset by ░░░░░░░░ cuts because if you ░░░░░░░░ looking for duration to ░░░░░░░░ while you re economy ░░░░░░░░ in Sounds like a ░░░░░░░░ economy where you might ░░░░░░░░ a potential for you ░░░░░░░░ go higher but then ░░░░░░░░ that s cutting for ░░░░░░░░ right reasons you can ░░░░░░░░ that kind of offset ░░░░░░░░ that the idea Well ░░░░░░░░ s actually let s ░░░░░░░░ realistic where we are ░░░░░░░░ now we ve seen ░░░░░░░░ small business appointment and ░░░░░░░░ going on since the ░░░░░░░░ financial crisis See that ░░░░░░░░ of the Again highest ░░░░░░░░ since the great financial ░░░░░░░░ is borne by the ░░░░░░░░ income part church within ░░░░░░░░ economy Sure what do ░░░░░░░░ need You go back ░░░░░░░░ the employer report Oliver ░░░░░░░░ to medium business hiring ░░░░░░░░ in that s actually ░░░░░░░░ five percent Business Those ░░░░░░░░ corporations with five hundred ░░░░░░░░ are more that s ░░░░░░░░ 18 percent of our ░░░░░░░░ jerk So they are ░░░░░░░░ knows this and I ░░░░░░░░ that have that really ░░░░░░░░ they need to cut ░░░░░░░░ risk as if they ░░░░░░░░ t then we are ░░░░░░░░ to continue to be ░░░░░░░░ the curve going into ░░░░░░░░ year Completely wouldn t ░░░░░░░░ that from the Rationale ░░░░░░░░ makes sense When I ░░░░░░░░ back the idea that ░░░░░░░░ could have bonds and ░░░░░░░░ rallied together is that ░░░░░░░░ the last two weeks ░░░░░░░░ re basically every time ░░░░░░░░ rally it s when ░░░░░░░░ are getting hit and ░░░░░░░░ s like every time ░░░░░░░░ sell off now we ░░░░░░░░ better about the economic ░░░░░░░░ stocks rallied back but ░░░░░░░░ seems that you would ░░░░░░░░ then that Going go ░░░░░░░░ stocks are going to ░░░░░░░░ up anyway What causes ░░░░░░░░ break Why is it ░░░░░░░░ what it s doing ░░░░░░░░ now Basically that was ░░░░░░░░ like a state of ░░░░░░░░ about the economy we ░░░░░░░░ we re in this ░░░░░░░░ of uncertainty Right now ░░░░░░░░ mean we re We ░░░░░░░░ trying to rationalize is ░░░░░░░░ looking policy decision and ░░░░░░░░ one knows today Have ░░░░░░░░ adjustments in this period ░░░░░░░░ time that we know ░░░░░░░░ and September yeah There ░░░░░░░░ concerns I mean look ░░░░░░░░ the sentiment surveys that ░░░░░░░░ in the survey data ░░░░░░░░ s people receiving phone ░░░░░░░░ about their business and ░░░░░░░░ do you feel about ░░░░░░░░ versus the real economic ░░░░░░░░ that isn t That ░░░░░░░░ not as pessimistic soldiers ░░░░░░░░ Short term where this ░░░░░░░░ poll is evident by ░░░░░░░░ but you know from ░░░░░░░░ markets point of view ░░░░░░░░ the right time frame ░░░░░░░░ you move past that ░░░░░░░░ you get clarity on ░░░░░░░░ policy describes earnings outlooks ░░░░░░░░ demand company still filling ░░░░░░░░ a feeling figuring out ░░░░░░░░ to do more with ░░░░░░░░ productivity in a reasonable ░░░░░░░░ that actually and creates ░░░░░░░░ dynamic where you get ░░░░░░░░ of this range right ░░░░░░░░ let s not forget ░░░░░░░░ on August fifth right ░░░░░░░░ beginning of August we ░░░░░░░░ a carry trade issue ░░░░░░░░ nothing to do with ░░░░░░░░ economics of our economy ░░░░░░░░ shoot the vic s ░░░░░░░░ to levels that we ░░░░░░░░ t seen going back ░░░░░░░░ the crates and I ░░░░░░░░ a fun one though ░░░░░░░░ part the resilient blew ░░░░░░░░ dollars getting hammered after ░░░░░░░░ bad jobs report so ░░░░░░░░ tender that was there ░░░░░░░░ help like Circle back ░░░░░░░░ the conversation The full ░░░░░░░░ brine back basically to ░░░░░░░░ optimistic view is Is ░░░░░░░░ are level on unemployment ░░░░░░░░ win that theory breaks ░░░░░░░░ like what is our ░░░░░░░░ from where we re ░░░░░░░░ right now to where ░░░░░░░░ maybe the economic situation ░░░░░░░░ deteriorating too fast I ░░░░░░░░ actually wear whatever other ░░░░░░░░ you like one hundred ░░░░░░░░ but I ll keep ░░░░░░░░ super simple as relative ░░░░░░░░ time because there s ░░░░░░░░ many conflicting sure right ░░░░░░░░ let s just make ░░░░░░░░ about hirings but just ░░░░░░░░ guy hiring in the ░░░░░░░░ So we know that ░░░░░░░░ the last 10 to ░░░░░░░░ jobs reports there s ░░░░░░░░ downgrades in hiring historically ░░░░░░░░ and we seen that ░░░░░░░░ rate take up There ░░░░░░░░ a theory That s ░░░░░░░░ there to say there ░░░░░░░░ a minimum level of ░░░░░░░░ hiring that half the ░░░░░░░░ to keep the economy ░░░░░░░░ of trouble and right ░░░░░░░░ the average rolling three ░░░░░░░░ number is well below ░░░░░░░░ we re about a ░░░░░░░░ and 14 thousand love ░░░░░░░░ but we should be ░░░░░░░░ around one Fifty year ░░░░░░░░ that s the thing ░░░░░░░░ you want to look ░░░░░░░░ the Fed is saying ░░░░░░░░ know that they need ░░░░░░░░ act and it s ░░░░░░░░ sure they re doing ░░░░░░░░ the right way So ░░░░░░░░ s gradual it s ░░░░░░░░ creating more uncertainty more ░░░░░░░░ but if they do ░░░░░░░░ job appropriately they don ░░░░░░░░ ask what help to ░░░░░░░░ the labor market and ░░░░░░░░ us moving forward To ░░░░░░░░ what you reference in ░░░░░░░░ question about unemployment is ░░░░░░░░ nominal figuring That s ░░░░░░░░ of debate right now ░░░░░░░░ to we care more ░░░░░░░░ the rate of change ░░░░░░░░ worse and or do ░░░░░░░░ look at the nominally ░░░░░░░░ hey we re coming ░░░░░░░░ pretty good levels I ░░░░░░░░ the timing to of ░░░░░░░░ take great stuff bryant ░░░░░░░░ you appreciate it Good ░░░░░░░░ have two big days ░░░░░░░░ here in stock We ░░░░░░░░ into the bell of ░░░░░░░░ minutes left Prime lending ░░░░░░░░ I m