RUSH TRANSCRIPT okay Let ░░░░░░░░ take that story forward ░░░░░░░░ ryan is the cio ░░░░░░░░ Asian wealth management joining ░░░░░░░░ his take on things ░░░░░░░░ thank you very much ░░░░░░░░ joining your side What ░░░░░░░░ your own read As ░░░░░░░░ as the Fed s ░░░░░░░░ is concerned because market ░░░░░░░░ almost going to the ░░░░░░░░ conclusion In fact now ░░░░░░░░ debating whether it s ░░░░░░░░ to be 25 or ░░░░░░░░ But do think that ░░░░░░░░ s a done deal ░░░░░░░░ 25 basis points in ░░░░░░░░ I think the markets ░░░░░░░░ us that and the ░░░░░░░░ that there wasn t ░░░░░░░░ knee jerk reaction by ░░░░░░░░ sell off So Powell ░░░░░░░░ t disappoint he clearly ░░░░░░░░ by moving forward that ░░░░░░░░ data depended but this ░░░░░░░░ the concern that I ░░░░░░░░ moving if the Fed ░░░░░░░░ been data dependent and ░░░░░░░░ just had a 30 ░░░░░░░░ in the employment number ░░░░░░░░ 818 jobs over the ░░░░░░░░ 12 months March to ░░░░░░░░ what kind of data ░░░░░░░░ they actually dependent on ░░░░░░░░ how reliable is data ░░░░░░░░ that showing that the ░░░░░░░░ in the us you ░░░░░░░░ we ve got a ░░░░░░░░ labor market would plays ░░░░░░░░ a 25 basis point ░░░░░░░░ the question is do ░░░░░░░░ go 50 just to ░░░░░░░░ cautionary and not be ░░░░░░░░ the curve again so ░░░░░░░░ I think 25 is ░░░░░░░░ in the markets expected ░░░░░░░░ there wasn t a ░░░░░░░░ sell off so that ░░░░░░░░ where sit today Indeed ░░░░░░░░ And so what happens ░░░░░░░░ the first rate cut ░░░░░░░░ it were to come ░░░░░░░░ because now I think ░░░░░░░░ question is also what ░░░░░░░░ the easing cycle look ░░░░░░░░ What would be the ░░░░░░░░ of that cycle Would ░░░░░░░░ be a shallow cycle ░░░░░░░░ it be an intense ░░░░░░░░ aggressive one People are ░░░░░░░░ three rate cuts this ░░░░░░░░ and then more in ░░░░░░░░ And I wonder how ░░░░░░░░ would get placed and ░░░░░░░░ out given that till ░░░░░░░░ we d only be ░░░░░░░░ about elections Yeah let ░░░░░░░░ start with the elections ░░░░░░░░ if we go back ░░░░░░░░ 94 95 you a ░░░░░░░░ know Clinton in office ░░░░░░░░ Newt Gingrich came over ░░░░░░░░ a divided house which ░░░░░░░░ setting up from 95 ░░░░░░░░ 99 one of the ░░░░░░░░ markets we ve ever ░░░░░░░░ in market history And ░░░░░░░░ reason that was because ░░░░░░░░ had a divided Congress ░░░░░░░░ And that means spending ░░░░░░░░ So exactly what we ░░░░░░░░ We had too much ░░░░░░░░ stimulus Obviously it s ░░░░░░░░ way through the system ░░░░░░░░ inflationary pressures and a ░░░░░░░░ of dislocation in the ░░░░░░░░ system So if I ░░░░░░░░ one of the best ░░░░░░░░ that we could be ░░░░░░░░ for in the elections ░░░░░░░░ in the United States ░░░░░░░░ a divided Congress moving ░░░░░░░░ That means they stop ░░░░░░░░ which is a big ░░░░░░░░ for Our inflationary pressures ░░░░░░░░ just had to stop ░░░░░░░░ as it were Yeah ░░░░░░░░ I think this relates ░░░░░░░░ the U S as ░░░░░░░░ to the pace and ░░░░░░░░ that the curve yield ░░░░░░░░ is going hundred basis ░░░░░░░░ for next year between ░░░░░░░░ and next year So ░░░░░░░░ s call it 2 ░░░░░░░░ Fed funds is a ░░░░░░░░ 5 and you know ░░░░░░░░ 10 year treasury is ░░░░░░░░ 3 8 so there ░░░░░░░░ a delta there that ░░░░░░░░ is and some room ░░░░░░░░ the Fed But the ░░░░░░░░ can just take it ░░░░░░░░ they see as the ░░░░░░░░ comes in and then ░░░░░░░░ elections could play in ░░░░░░░░ I said before to ░░░░░░░░ the Fed with regards ░░░░░░░░ inflationary pressures stop the ░░░░░░░░ So why quickly Robert ░░░░░░░░ is not this will ░░░░░░░░ be that rate easing ░░░░░░░░ where we see rates ░░░░░░░░ down to zero right ░░░░░░░░ at the end of ░░░░░░░░ day you a lot ░░░░░░░░ market participants are saying ░░░░░░░░ the Fed would be ░░░░░░░░ restrictive than where it ░░░░░░░░ right now But that ░░░░░░░░ that they will swing ░░░░░░░░ other way in being ░░░░░░░░ dovish So to that ░░░░░░░░ between two and a ░░░░░░░░ 3 is where we ░░░░░░░░ the nominal rates Yeah ░░░░░░░░ not want to see ░░░░░░░░ know climbing the stairs ░░░░░░░░ then an elevator down ░░░░░░░░ down would indicate something ░░░░░░░░ wrong the us economy ░░░░░░░░ if we could have ░░░░░░░░ measured pace on the ░░░░░░░░ down an easing cycle ░░░░░░░░ would be welcome welcome ░░░░░░░░ the economy maybe a ░░░░░░░░ landing but the GDP ░░░░░░░░ drifting lower A of ░░░░░░░░ employment is drifting lower ░░░░░░░░ s drifting lower So ░░░░░░░░ have a window of ░░░░░░░░ to thread the needle ░░░░░░░░ we do not want ░░░░░░░░ see a 50 75 ░░░░░░░░ basis point reaction because ░░░░░░░░ means that there s ░░░░░░░░ else in the economy ░░░░░░░░ the Fed would worried ░░░░░░░░ and we should be ░░░░░░░░ got it Robert stay ░░░░░░░░ with that we ll ░░░░░░░░ back to the in ░░░░░░░░ shop minutes and talk ░░░░░░░░ a stock