Of fox and economics ░░░░░░░░ job cleveland come back ░░░░░░░░ us from pay and ░░░░░░░░ is a principal chief ░░░░░░░░ so just fall when ░░░░░░░░ see a number like ░░░░░░░░ in the market Respond ░░░░░░░░ this seminal day of ░░░░░░░░ the entire narrative I ░░░░░░░░ t if its cinnamon ░░░░░░░░ day I think on ░░░░░░░░ margin It matters a ░░░░░░░░ because we had a ░░░░░░░░ p I in may ░░░░░░░░ that s followed up ░░░░░░░░ a very soft core ░░░░░░░░ reading for June I ░░░░░░░░ a lot of things ░░░░░░░░ right in June to ░░░░░░░░ that s off number ░░░░░░░░ it s possible Oliver ░░░░░░░░ the g June report ░░░░░░░░ overstates the moderation trend ░░░░░░░░ inflation beat as maids ░░░░░░░░ months in or of ░░░░░░░░ of soft price pressures ░░░░░░░░ that s good news ░░░░░░░░ think I still think ░░░░░░░░ You need to see ░░░░░░░░ couple more months of ░░░░░░░░ to give the Fed ░░░░░░░░ green light to cut ░░░░░░░░ of Maybe that will ░░░░░░░░ by September So perhaps ░░░░░░░░ s prudent to put ░░░░░░░░ in a September rate ░░░░░░░░ and a December rate ░░░░░░░░ in a one per ░░░░░░░░ out of the next ░░░░░░░░ to 11 months I ░░░░░░░░ that s that s ░░░░░░░░ but I wouldn t ░░░░░░░░ my entire view based ░░░░░░░░ one day I think ░░░░░░░░ s missed here Listening ░░░░░░░░ that great discussion jobless ░░░░░░░░ yeah initial claims dip ░░░░░░░░ down to two 20 ░░░░░░░░ Oliver I think that ░░░░░░░░ took a backseat in ░░░░░░░░ the other flurry of ░░░░░░░░ permission know I think ░░░░░░░░ re lie out I ░░░░░░░░ that helps because if ░░░░░░░░ saw jobless claims bomb ░░░░░░░░ suddenly inflation come down ░░░░░░░░ like it s too ░░░░░░░░ of a price So ░░░░░░░░ fact that jobs are ░░░░░░░░ help some of the ░░░░░░░░ stuff justify the move ░░░░░░░░ you nailed it sir ░░░░░░░░ so it s moderate ░░░░░░░░ and the initial claims ░░░░░░░░ worry We had a ░░░░░░░░ up in claims It ░░░░░░░░ like it s settled ░░░░░░░░ down economy still holding ░░░░░░░░ there that really plays ░░░░░░░░ the soft landing story ░░░░░░░░ I think that s ░░░░░░░░ key component here Yeah ░░░░░░░░ good point We ve ░░░░░░░░ steepening in the curve ░░░░░░░░ the last called three ░░░░░░░░ a little bit more ░░░░░░░░ today Of me through ░░░░░░░░ way see that Jeff ░░░░░░░░ a technically like the ░░░░░░░░ tells you that if ░░░░░░░░ s deepens cause cause ░░░░░░░░ s actually usually when ░░░░░░░░ recession s gonna head ░░░░░░░░ know people are like ░░░░░░░░ of hearing about yield ░░░░░░░░ predictions but technically that ░░░░░░░░ what it is It ░░░░░░░░ not the actual version ░░░░░░░░ s when it starts ░░░░░░░░ and invert because they ░░░░░░░░ a cut Yeah don ░░░░░░░░ typically when you get ░░░░░░░░ steep learning curve it ░░░░░░░░ because the Fed is ░░░░░░░░ I I I feel ░░░░░░░░ there are some instances ░░░░░░░░ though where you ve ░░░░░░░░ the fine tuning situation ░░░░░░░░ maybe you re 20 ░░░░░░░░ period can be seen ░░░░░░░░ way where the Fed ░░░░░░░░ rates a few times ░░░░░░░░ didn t have a ░░░░░░░░ so that was that ░░░░░░░░ a key period Before ░░░░░░░░ you go back to ░░░░░░░░ 19 nineties that stretch ░░░░░░░░ 90 five 90 eight ░░░░░░░░ you had some fine ░░░░░░░░ from that from the ░░░░░░░░ So I think that ░░░░░░░░ key thing to get ░░░░░░░░ bullish duration in my ░░░░░░░░ took to think that ░░░░░░░░ yields across the curve ░░░░░░░░ going to go out ░░░░░░░░ You have to be ░░░░░░░░ and the recession can ░░░░░░░░ doesn t have to ░░░░░░░░ a hard landing necessarily ░░░░░░░░ a garden variety recession ░░░░░░░░ that s the scenario ░░░░░░░░ rates go down a ░░░░░░░░ near just in a ░░░░░░░░ tuning where the Fed ░░░░░░░░ just cutting rates once ░░░░░░░░ quarter out over the ░░░░░░░░ year and the economy ░░░░░░░░ holding up then the ░░░░░░░░ there s a modest ░░░░░░░░ treasury yield but not ░░░░░░░░ much now they could ░░░░░░░░ pretty elevated Volume would ░░░░░░░░ like if that were ░░░░░░░░ this turns out to ░░░░░░░░ fine tuning in we ░░░░░░░░ bounce back then bomb ░░░░░░░░ s are gonna Have ░░░░░░░░ ball seems like when ░░░░░░░░ re now kind of ░░░░░░░░ to the lowest since ░░░░░░░░ the spring since March ░░░░░░░░ ve got a chart ░░░░░░░░ at the somme rule ░░░░░░░░ mean that kind of ░░░░░░░░ more on the recessionary ░░░░░░░░ If we get another ░░░░░░░░ right this is kind ░░░░░░░░ like I feel like ░░░░░░░░ agreed upon go to ░░░░░░░░ Go for this cycle ░░░░░░░░ I mean historically speaking ░░░░░░░░ change in the unemployment ░░░░░░░░ matters so not a ░░░░░░░░ of the level but ░░░░░░░░ so if you go ░░░░░░░░ three point four to ░░░░░░░░ point one history tells ░░░░░░░░ you should be concerned ░░░░░░░░ a slowdown The difficult ░░░░░░░░ think right now all ░░░░░░░░ I don t trust ░░░░░░░░ household survey from which ░░░░░░░░ re deriving the unemployment ░░░░░░░░ I think there are ░░░░░░░░ reasons to tread cautiously ░░░░░░░░ It s a smaller ░░░░░░░░ size it s a ░░░░░░░░ more volatile survey in ░░░░░░░░ of the employment component ░░░░░░░░ so I don t ░░░░░░░░ put all my eggs ░░░░░░░░ that basket So we ░░░░░░░░ we re looking at ░░░░░░░░ It s a rest ░░░░░░░░ you but I think ░░░░░░░░ there there s some ░░░░░░░░ out there The ball ░░░░░░░░ bulls especially people that ░░░░░░░░ think the Fed should ░░░░░░░░ cutting I think they ░░░░░░░░ overweight may be on ░░░░░░░░ unemployment rate than that ░░░░░░░░ they should be and ░░░░░░░░ would prefer to look ░░░░░░░░ the establishment surveys or ░░░░░░░░ We got chart on ░░░░░░░░ right Yeah I mean ░░░░░░░░ you look at payrolls ░░░░░░░░ know month a month ░░░░░░░░ even year on year ░░░░░░░░ that looks like a ░░░░░░░░ average of a much ░░░░░░░░ volatile household survey In ░░░░░░░░ career it s been ░░░░░░░░ more reliable than establishment ░░░░░░░░ The payroll survey so ░░░░░░░░ I choose to act ░░░░░░░░ pixel pick something to ░░░░░░░░ my ah my money ░░░░░░░░ a minute I m ░░░░░░░░ do that and it ░░░░░░░░ holding up quite nicely ░░░░░░░░ mean we We have ░░░░░░░░ a deceleration in job ░░░░░░░░ from that sort of ░░░░░░░░ of 20 twenty two ░░░░░░░░ twenty three or we ░░░░░░░░ still talking about three ░░░░░░░░ average hundred and seventy ░░░░░░░░ thousand jobs 11 month ░░░░░░░░ Is this flirt with ░░░░░░░░ 20 So it s ░░░░░░░░ holding up pretty nicely ░░░░░░░░ nominal levels versus rate ░░░░░░░░ change rides three of ░░░░░░░░ My look a little ░░░░░░░░ more alarming than the ░░░░░░░░ levels because we re ░░░░░░░░ off such bizarre covert ░░░░░░░░ it seems like that ░░░░░░░░ kind of of up ░░░░░░░░ simple way to look ░░░░░░░░ it Yes So if ░░░░░░░░ happens then just fog ░░░░░░░░ or become the major ░░░░░░░░ on the horizon obviously ░░░░░░░░ s November but without ░░░░░░░░ meeting in assuming that ░░░░░░░░ still a no god ░░░░░░░░ paladin seem like he ░░░░░░░░ ready to call yesterday ░░░░░░░░ usually pretty literal Guy ░░░░░░░░ us a heads up ░░░░░░░░ What are we looking ░░░░░░░░ year Between now and ░░░░░░░░ to figure out kind ░░░░░░░░ the main macro What ░░░░░░░░ maybe people need to ░░░░░░░░ how the Fed operates ░░░░░░░░ s not going to ░░░░░░░░ quickly it It s ░░░░░░░░ I don t think ░░░░░░░░ s going to move ░░░░░░░░ July unless you have ░░░░░░░░ sort of crisis So ░░░░░░░░ could that be Perhaps ░░░░░░░░ financial issue For me ░░░░░░░░ s the the labor ░░░░░░░░ you d you d ░░░░░░░░ to see a much ░░░░░░░░ a bigger deterioration claims ░░░░░░░░ s why I thought ░░░░░░░░ was such a key ░░░░░░░░ that settled down so ░░░░░░░░ don t think you ░░░░░░░░ going to have a ░░░░░░░░ for urgent action in ░░░░░░░░ That means the September ░░░░░░░░ is much more likely ░░░░░░░░ the election matters I ░░░░░░░░ that s probably a ░░░░░░░░ thing on the counter ░░░░░░░░ don t know that ░░░░░░░░ changes the trajectory of ░░░░░░░░ economy though doesn t ░░░░░░░░ the near term Maybe ░░░░░░░░ changes can be made ░░░░░░░░ a 20 twenty five ░░░░░░░░ twenty six You can ░░░░░░░░ some growth differences but ░░░░░░░░ the next six months ░░░░░░░░ so that is not ░░░░░░░░ to change I don ░░░░░░░░ think by the election ░░░░░░░░ be a lot of ░░░░░░░░ about that but I ░░░░░░░░ t think that s ░░░░░░░░ change the story What ░░░░░░░░ is this I ll ░░░░░░░░ us The okay If ░░░░░░░░ is moderating in the ░░░░░░░░ market is holding up ░░░░░░░░ you re in a ░░░░░░░░ landing scenario the can ░░░░░░░░ a couple Times Square ░░░░░░░░ stocks it s great ░░░░░░░░ bonds it s great ░░░░░░░░ credit Is it probably ░░░░░░░░ a weaker dollar Our ░░░░░░░░ mean that that s ░░░░░░░░ of over we re ░░░░░░░░ play out here great ░░░░░░░░ father loved that framework ░░░░░░░░ seems like inflation path ░░░░░░░░ of on a reliable ░░░░░░░░ vector now so we ░░░░░░░░ jobs watch employment to ░░░░░░░░ if the rest of ░░░░░░░░ holds up always push ░░░░░░░░ lots good stuff sir ░░░░░░░░ a great afternoon Edge ░░░░░░░░ chief paine, wriggles