RUSH TRANSCRIPT In a ░░░░░░░░ bit lighter but yet ░░░░░░░░ relatively strong Jeffrey Cleveland ░░░░░░░░ chief economist over it ░░░░░░░░ him regal He joins ░░░░░░░░ now from Los Angeles ░░░░░░░░ It is A success ░░░░░░░░ Jay power would probably ░░░░░░░░ a nothing burger What ░░░░░░░░ of burger do you ░░░░░░░░ Site that actually happy ░░░░░░░░ to you out every ░░░░░░░░ re not going to ░░░░░░░░ a move on raids ░░░░░░░░ don t see a ░░░░░░░░ of incentive for the ░░░░░░░░ chair to try to ░░░░░░░░ try to move markets ░░░░░░░░ of move towards a ░░░░░░░░ hawkish stance removing a ░░░░░░░░ of the policy accommodation ░░░░░░░░ we saw priced in ░░░░░░░░ the start of the ░░░░░░░░ so that I don ░░░░░░░░ these do much But ░░░░░░░░ was hoping maybe just ░░░░░░░░ stir up something we ░░░░░░░░ get it announcement on ░░░░░░░░ balance sheet so put ░░░░░░░░ side rates and they ░░░░░░░░ been doing this quantitative ░░░░░░░░ mean for most of ░░░░░░░░ last two years and ░░░░░░░░ they said or least ░░░░░░░░ said he wanted to ░░░░░░░░ soon begin The process ░░░░░░░░ the pace of balance ░░░░░░░░ contraction if you could ░░░░░░░░ that so that that ░░░░░░░░ be something that s ░░░░░░░░ today to start in ░░░░░░░░ of or maybe they ░░░░░░░░ that announcement I ve ░░░░░░░░ you not know but ░░░░░░░░ that s one of ░░░░░░░░ idea for some excitement ░░░░░░░░ so Jeffrey from from ░░░░░░░░ perspective Looking at the ░░░░░░░░ data that you see ░░░░░░░░ do you think the ░░░░░░░░ should do On the ░░░░░░░░ the right thing to ░░░░░░░░ here Rates at this ░░░░░░░░ that GDP report of ░░░░░░░░ week If you exclude ░░░░░░░░ of the volatile components ░░░░░░░░ still see the underline ░░░░░░░░ of growth in this ░░░░░░░░ and around three percent ░░░░░░░░ We think what we ░░░░░░░░ get a figure like ░░░░░░░░ An annualized rate you ░░░░░░░░ which would be excellent ░░░░░░░░ rates low all the ░░░░░░░░ data All the inflation ░░░░░░░░ in the first quarter ░░░░░░░░ up relative to what ░░░░░░░░ had hoped for so ░░░░░░░░ we re talking sepia ░░░░░░░░ were pc or easy ░░░░░░░░ from yesterday rights everything ░░░░░░░░ pickup so there s ░░░░░░░░ compelling case here to ░░░░░░░░ rates I don t ░░░░░░░░ that there would be ░░░░░░░░ can get would take ░░░░░░░░ few months if I ░░░░░░░░ up policymaker Paul I ░░░░░░░░ to see it least ░░░░░░░░ months of inflation data ░░░░░░░░ much cooler than we ░░░░░░░░ witness he d so ░░░░░░░░ think that rules out ░░░░░░░░ anything for it for ░░░░░░░░ That s why I ░░░░░░░░ the balance sheet would ░░░░░░░░ certain they could do ░░░░░░░░ their time in the ░░░░░░░░ We are talking about ░░░░░░░░ in in the previous ░░░░░░░░ Why does the Fed ░░░░░░░░ do you agree that ░░░░░░░░ take a look a ░░░░░░░░ conditions they are so ░░░░░░░░ So what gives them ░░░░░░░░ confidence to say policy ░░░░░░░░ it a restrictive enough ░░░░░░░░ Where they look at ░░░░░░░░ neutral re The look ░░░░░░░░ the policy rate relative ░░░░░░░░ they say we must ░░░░░░░░ We must be at ░░░░░░░░ restrictive setting Lots of ░░░░░░░░ people will also look ░░░░░░░░ real rates So if ░░░░░░░░ look at your tips ░░░░░░░░ you re real rates ░░░░░░░░ you look at a ░░░░░░░░ yield minus some measure ░░░░░░░░ inflation It s positive ░░░░░░░░ it is been negative ░░░░░░░░ quite some time so ░░░░░░░░ think that s a ░░░░░░░░ I m a simple ░░░░░░░░ I just look at ░░░░░░░░ inflation the unemployment rate ░░░░░░░░ I think the jury ░░░░░░░░ still out Alex it ░░░░░░░░ It s tbd whether ░░░░░░░░ actually that restrictive I ░░░░░░░░ got back from Europe ░░░░░░░░ was in Germany a ░░░░░░░░ clients over there asking ░░░░░░░░ was hey baby interest ░░░░░░░░ which is going to ░░░░░░░░ more time to bite ░░░░░░░░ us consumers more insulated ░░░░░░░░ rates but got 30 ░░░░░░░░ fixed mortgage for example ░░░░░░░░ of my corporate clients ░░░░░░░░ know they ve turned ░░░░░░░░ their debt and they ░░░░░░░░ earning income on their ░░░░░░░░ assets their savings that ░░░░░░░░ ve accrued so they ░░░░░░░░ actually earning income and ░░░░░░░░ rate increases that we ░░░░░░░░ seen so use companies ░░░░░░░░ resilient I think it ░░░░░░░░ tough to make the ░░░░░░░░ Things are very restrictive ░░░░░░░░ the present Jeff we ░░░░░░░░ some ice a Jeffrey ░░░░░░░░ s my if some ░░░░░░░░ come out earlier this ░░░░░░░░ forty nine point two ░░░░░░░░ a headline number versus ░░░░░░░░ consensus of fifty We ░░░░░░░░ Tim fury who heads ░░░░░░░░ Concerned about it s ░░░░░░░░ s it s It ░░░░░░░░ a data point How ░░░░░░░░ you think about just ░░░░░░░░ of the the overall ░░░░░░░░ here today Is it ░░░░░░░░ it s strong enough ░░░░░░░░ your perspective that if ░░░░░░░░ Fed in fact can ░░░░░░░░ gonna wait yeah it ░░░░░░░░ I got excited when ░░░░░░░░ jump back about fifty ░░░░░░░░ I have we been ░░░░░░░░ was an exciting moment ░░░░░░░░ us so we did ░░░░░░░░ charter though he come ░░░░░░░░ of the probably the ░░░░░░░░ worrisome aspect of that ░░░░░░░░ prices paid yeah correct ░░░░░░░░ if I m wrong ░░░░░░░░ I believe they leapt ░░░░░░░░ up to sixty point ░░░░░░░░ on that game right ░░░░░░░░ again maybe the real ░░░░░░░░ here is we ve ░░░░░░░░ some manufactured weakness for ░░░░░░░░ time so that s ░░░░░░░░ really new but that ░░░░░░░░ resurgence of some price ░░░░░░░░ that might be the ░░░░░░░░ story here that s ░░░░░░░░ with some other price ░░░░░░░░ and kiwi Can t ░░░░░░░░ anything about like it ░░░░░░░░ s a county pass ░░░░░░░░ thing and even if ░░░░░░░░ stays higher they can ░░░░░░░░ do anything about that ░░░░░░░░ In essence here s ░░░░░░░░ question from earlier If ░░░░░░░░ don t get a ░░░░░░░░ this year could that ░░░░░░░░ seen as a de ░░░░░░░░ hike Market participants had ░░░░░░░░ You know at the ░░░░░░░░ of the I river ░░░░░░░░ this program in January ░░░░░░░░ were talking I think ░░░░░░░░ was one hundred fifty ░░░░░░░░ points of ring us ░░░░░░░░ did that definitely had ░░░░░░░░ impact on financial conditions ░░░░░░░░ you re looking to ░░░░░░░░ your yoga or a ░░░░░░░░ year yield So the ░░░░░░░░ of the removal of ░░░░░░░░ or across the board ░░░░░░░░ I just keep coming ░░░░░░░░ to it when talking ░░░░░░░░ clients it s happening ░░░░░░░░ a good reason It ░░░░░░░░ because growth is holding ░░░░░░░░ the economy is more ░░░░░░░░ We re talking three ░░░░░░░░ growth Of that that ░░░░░░░░ not a terrible and ░░░░░░░░ I guess If we ░░░░░░░░ back I don t ░░░░░░░░ five six seven years ░░░░░░░░ I told you we ░░░░░░░░ up and 20 twenty ░░░░░░░░ with three percent growth ░░░░░░░░ point eight percent unemployment ░░░░░░░░ a little bit higher ░░░░░░░░ percent inflation You would ░░░░░░░░ that deal I think ░░░░░░░░ would be okay for ░░░░░░░░ earnings overall So it ░░░░░░░░ a disastrous us scenario ░░░░░░░░ It s disappointing If ░░░░░░░░ expected a lot of ░░░░░░░░ cuts which How about ░░░░░░░░ U s consumer we ░░░░░░░░ gonna get some earnings ░░░░░░░░ next week from some ░░░░░░░░ retailers hate the us ░░░░░░░░ is doing out there ░░░░░░░░ there s more there ░░░░░░░░ a lot across ones ░░░░░░░░ There are tough but ░░░░░░░░ parts of doing Okay ░░░░░░░░ you any If you ░░░░░░░░ consumer A lot a ░░░░░░░░ range of clients and ░░░░░░░░ of my clients tell ░░░░░░░░ hey I don t ░░░░░░░░ that inflation is cooled ░░░░░░░░ You d hope hoped ░░░░░░░░ it s It was ░░░░░░░░ percent on this core ░░░░░░░░ you re talking about ░░░░░░░░ it s three percent ░░░░░░░░ big deal prices are ░░░░░░░░ hi Paul That s ░░░░░░░░ they tell me It ░░░░░░░░ the price level that ░░░░░░░░ think they re referring ░░░░░░░░ as the term We ░░░░░░░░ use right and so ░░░░░░░░ s still a think ░░░░░░░░ to wait A lot ░░░░░░░░ consumers are consumers that ░░░░░░░░ seem pretty good wage ░░░░░░░░ but not all and ░░░░░░░░ think you re seeing ░░░░░░░░ show up in some ░░░░░░░░ so we re seeing ░░░░░░░░ credit card delinquencies we ░░░░░░░░ seeing that in some ░░░░░░░░ of the auto delinquency ░░░░░░░░ so it s up ░░░░░░░░ watching very carefully I ░░░░░░░░ to tell you though ░░░░░░░░ aggregate when I see ░░░░░░░░ or get nominal consumer ░░░░░░░░ still growing at around ░░░░░░░░ percent year on year ░░░░░░░░ the latest month of ░░░░░░░░ that is pretty good ░░░░░░░░ and smooth over a ░░░░░░░░ of the other problems ░░░░░░░░ we see out there ░░░░░░░░ some signs of weakness ░░░░░░░░ overall you ask if ░░░░░░░░ consumer is it s ░░░░░░░░ still great shape I ░░░░░░░░ so before let you ░░░░░░░░ It is the question ░░░░░░░░ day Friday Two hundred ░░░░░░░░ and wouldn t be ░░░░░░░░ by that which would ░░░░░░░░ great We we think ░░░░░░░░ only need one hundred ░░░░░░░░ 10 thousand jobs to ░░░░░░░░ a lid on the ░░░░░░░░ rate so that should ░░░░░░░░ some downward pressure on ░░░░░░░░ unemployment rate another another ░░░░░░░░ year month of job ░░░░░░░░ I think so we ░░░░░░░░ were expecting a pretty ░░░░░░░░ wrote to continue here ░░░░░░░░ the That we appreciate ░░░░░░░░ I hope for you ░░░░░░░░ saying that it it ░░░░░░░░ not a nothing burger ░░░░░░░░ you don t get ░░░░░░░░ and it does feel ░░░░░░░░ Jay power would like ░░░░░░░░ to be a nothing ░░░░░░░░ air So we ll ░░░░░░░░ that actually happens and ░░░░░░░░ cleveland chief economist at ░░░░░░░░ eagle eye is standing ░░░░░░░░ here s another question ░░░░░░░░ we take a look