Date
Summary
Richard Saperstein Appears on ‘Fast Money Halftime Report’ [Part I]
Subjects
Source
CNBC

Name: CNBC
URL: http://www.cnbc.com/
Show
Fast Money Halftime Report
Name: Fast Money Halftime Report
URL: https://www.cnbc.com/halftime/
Persons
Richard Saperstein

Name: Richard Saperstein
Employment: Treasury Partners
Position: Founder and Chief Investment Officer
Event
–
Event location
–
Link
–
Original recording
Uploaded
04/12/2024 04:46 pm
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Type
Video
Format
MP4 (1280x720)
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Duration
0:01:00
Views
11
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0
Transcript
RUSH TRANSCRIPT There were ░░░░░░░░ 000 something stocks when ░░░░░░░░ started in the business ░░░░░░░░ were 7 000 Most ░░░░░░░░ penny stocks so throw ░░░░░░░░ out The Wilshire 5 ░░░░░░░░ can t muster an ░░░░░░░░ So that is a ░░░░░░░░ When people say in ░░░░░░░░ day the baseline p ░░░░░░░░ ratio was 16 it ░░░░░░░░ t your day player ░░░░░░░░ s my day and ░░░░░░░░ my day valcations are ░░░░░░░░ higher because people need ░░░░░░░░ invest Do you see ░░░░░░░░ tail wind risks Geopolitical ░░░░░░░░ price spike that wouldn ░░░░░░░░ be great except for ░░░░░░░░ and I To his ░░░░░░░░ those always exist Are ░░░░░░░░ going to take on ░░░░░░░░ risk because you re ░░░░░░░░ about geo politics No ░░░░░░░░ s why you own ░░░░░░░░ as a hedge I ░░░░░░░░ with you on that ░░░░░░░░ s one going on ░░░░░░░░ the hood which is ░░░░░░░░ is running a 2 ░░░░░░░░ deficit They have to ░░░░░░░░ 10 trillion worth of ░░░░░░░░ Been hearing that for ░░░░░░░░ year There s hibernating ░░░░░░░░ that s called the ░░░░░░░░ of the bond market ░░░░░░░░ that could occur this ░░░░░░░░ It s a myth ░░░░░░░░ Japanese have been looking ░░░░░░░░ that vigilante for four ░░░░░░░░ like sasquatch the Fed ░░░░░░░░ curtail qt but if ░░░░░░░░ look at a tail ░░░░░░░░ event not priced in ░░░░░░░░ s one We re ░░░░░░░░ maturities in our bond ░░░░░░░░ the foal yoes as ░░░░░░░░ risk that s possible ░░░░░░░░ you re into equities ░░░░░░░░ are you historically what ░░░░░░░░ your number If you ░░░░░░░░ managing wealth for a ░░░░░░░░ net worth cohort you ░░░░░░░░ never be more than ░░░░░░░░ You re trying to ░░░░░░░░ wealth not create necessarily ░░░░░░░░ at a time taking ░░░░░░░░ excess risk correct What ░░░░░░░░ are you Typically the ░░░░░░░░ give us we have ░░░░░░░░ directive the return of ░░░░░░░░ is more important than ░░░░░░░░ return on capital My ░░░░░░░░ exactly It has gotten ░░░░░░░░ high as 60 Let ░░░░░░░░ call it 50 with ░░░░░░░░ 40 in bonds and ░░░░░░░░ 15 in less market ░░░░░░░░ At 50 if we ░░░░░░░░ 4 tax free and ░░░░░░░░ target rate return what ░░░░░░░░ I need to squeeze ░░░░░░░░ of the balance now ░░░░░░░░ I have a base ░░░░░░░░ 4 tax free Again ░░░░░░░░ of in your world ░░░░░░░░ more important than return ░░░░░░░░ People have different objectives ░░░░░░░░ on the level of ░░░░░░░░ they re managing for ░░░░░░░░ You are now where ░░░░░░░░ have been How do ░░░░░░░░ assess the proper mix ░░░░░░░░ thing to think about ░░░░░░░░ that prior to prior ░░░░░░░░ 2020 the challenge was ░░░░░░░░ had to take increasing ░░░░░░░░ of equity risk You ░░░░░░░░ t counseled on that ░░░░░░░░ component and had to ░░░░░░░░ on better returns or ░░░░░░░░ to add more equity ░░░░░░░░ of the challenges there ░░░░░░░░ a perfection that all ░░░░░░░░ these investors will go ░░░░░░░░ and anchor themselves to ░░░░░░░░ 2005 portfolio when there ░░░░░░░░ bond yields I think ░░░░░░░░ challenge now is that ░░░░░░░░ have been building wealth ░░░░░░░░ on equities for 15 ░░░░░░░░ now And I think ░░░░░░░░ s going to be ░░░░░░░░ to reanchor those investors ░░░░░░░░ say listen we re ░░░░░░░░ to cut your equity ░░░░░░░░ because you can get ░░░░░░░░ yield in the other ░░░░░░░░ of your portfolio There ░░░░░░░░ inflation whether it s ░░░░░░░░ or it s 3 ░░░░░░░░ we didn t have ░░░░░░░░ We were deflationary prior ░░░░░░░░ the pandemic Now you ░░░░░░░░ to balance out do ░░░░░░░░ need your capital to ░░░░░░░░ to grow in excess ░░░░░░░░ inflation The mix is ░░░░░░░░ going back to 2005 ░░░░░░░░ my view I think ░░░░░░░░ a bias to a ░░░░░░░░ higher equity mix because ░░░░░░░░ are looking at that ░░░░░░░░ a real way to ░░░░░░░░ their wealth over time ░░░░░░░░ preserve it Let s ░░░░░░░░ granular before we take ░░░░░░░░ first break In terms ░░░░░░░░ places you want to ░░░░░░░░ stocks you might want ░░░░░░░░ trim Jason this nvidia ░░░░░░░░ you ve trimmed you ░░░░░░░░ people who have trimmed ░░░░░░░░ name Now it was ░░░░░░░░ a 10 drawdown Which ░░░░░░░░ nothing Of late and ░░░░░░░░ has been snapped up ░░░░░░░░ today by the way ░░░░░░░░ nvidia shares up 2 ░░░░░░░░ 3 percent Why did ░░░░░░░░ trim it now The ░░░░░░░░ target goes to 1 ░░░░░░░░ at raymond James today ░░░░░░░░ up close to 80 ░░░░░░░░ to date For us ░░░░░░░░ s above our benchmark ░░░░░░░░ we ve trimmed it ░░░░░░░░ times especially over the ░░░░░░░░ two years And for ░░░░░░░░ here this is not ░░░░░░░░ indictment on the stock ░░░░░░░░ s not a reaction ░░░░░░░░ what we hear from ░░░░░░░░ or other players producing ░░░░░░░░ at a cheaper price ░░░░░░░░ boring as it might ░░░░░░░░ it is something we ░░░░░░░░ to do The gtc ░░░░░░░░ was impressive I think ░░░░░░░░ with what they re ░░░░░░░░ to develop for developers ░░░░░░░░ expanding even more But ░░░░░░░░ we wanted to take ░░░░░░░░ limb little off the ░░░░░░░░ Amazon is higher today ░░░░░░░░ now it is above ░░░░░░░░ new record closing high ░░░░░░░░ high is 188 65 ░░░░░░░░ We have new air ░░░░░░░░ for shares of Amazon ░░░░░░░░ was the large tech ░░░░░░░░ I thought would be ░░░░░░░░ performer of the year ░░░░░░░░ far I m right ░░░░░░░░ have a long time ░░░░░░░░ go But the reason ░░░░░░░░ I felt that way ░░░░░░░░ really that expectations had ░░░░░░░░ fairly tame versus the ░░░░░░░░ and the microsofts of ░░░░░░░░ world That s when ░░░░░░░░ want to take a ░░░░░░░░ look at stocks when ░░░░░░░░ street is not looking ░░░░░░░░ huge leaps and bounds ░░░░░░░░ re very involved in ░░░░░░░░ I extraordinarily so There ░░░░░░░░ no a I if ░░░░░░░░ web services is not ░░░░░░░░ quite frankly most of ░░░░░░░░ People forget where is ░░░░░░░░ money going to be ░░░░░░░░ It s not just ░░░░░░░░ semis The semi play ░░░░░░░░ get brutal The platform ░░░░░░░░ is better you think ░░░░░░░░ typical customer cares if ░░░░░░░░ re running a gpu ░░░░░░░░ company a versus company ░░░░░░░░ No They will care ░░░░░░░░ the services built onto ░░░░░░░░ a I Platform That ░░░░░░░░ where Amazon has potential ░░░░░░░░ stock is 26 above ░░░░░░░░ moving average It may ░░░░░░░░ be the best possible ░░░░░░░░ to buy it but ░░░░░░░░ will stay long here ░░░░░░░░ I would not be ░░░░░░░░ to get long this ░░░░░░░░ It s been above ░░░░░░░░ 200 day for about ░░░░░░░░ trading days The trend ░░░░░░░░ solid and I think ░░░░░░░░ will be opportunities on ░░░░░░░░ way up but I ░░░░░░░░ long and I m ░░░░░░░░ with what I m ░░░░░░░░ Rich you re long ░░░░░░░░ name as
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