RUSH TRANSCRIPT Us we ░░░░░░░░ going to talk to ░░░░░░░░ about the economy Now ░░░░░░░░ Jeff cleveland Pain and ░░░░░░░░ Jeff that we got ░░░░░░░░ this afternoon could see ░░░░░░░░ good to see Oliver ░░░░░░░░ got inflation immoral markets ░░░░░░░░ up without even seeing ░░░░░░░░ number any reason to ░░░░░░░░ this to be a ░░░░░░░░ print No opposite I ░░░░░░░░ you think about how ░░░░░░░░ year has gone so ░░░░░░░░ in terms of the ░░░░░░░░ data you had payroll ░░░░░░░░ accelerated in January so ░░░░░░░░ that nice little pick ░░░░░░░░ in in hiring activity ░░░░░░░░ re seeing all the ░░░░░░░░ data looking pretty strong ░░░░░░░░ GDP growth probably picked ░░░░░░░░ a little bit surprising ░░░░░░░░ say that in And ░░░░░░░░ half percent right now ░░░░░░░░ little bit of pick ░░░░░░░░ from que for so ░░░░░░░░ wouldn t surprise me ░░░░░░░░ all Oliver if January ░░░░░░░░ I also picked up ░░░░░░░░ I m just thinking ░░░░░░░░ course EPA The expectation ░░░░░░░░ for a point three ░░░░░░░░ mean we can t ░░░░░░░░ out a point Four ░░░░░░░░ with the point three ░░░░░░░░ a month change it ░░░░░░░░ pretty sticky inflation So ░░░░░░░░ There could be a ░░░░░░░░ turning the bed for ░░░░░░░░ marketing The three percent ░░░░░░░░ kind seems like an ░░░░░░░░ whole number two because ░░░░░░░░ know the Fed wants ░░░░░░░░ percent two percent Two ░░░░░░░░ or lot of people ░░░░░░░░ look at honor This ░░░░░░░░ saying okay Well these ░░░░░░░░ averages or these narrowed ░░░░░░░░ figures Lot of people ░░░░░░░░ we re already deep ░░░░░░░░ the twos but I ░░░░░░░░ supply still the benchmark ░░░░░░░░ and not I mean ░░░░░░░░ think bond investors look ░░░░░░░░ a wide array of ░░░░░░░░ measure So if if ░░░░░░░░ core pc he was ░░░░░░░░ and then hundred basis ░░░░░░░░ above that on a ░░░░░░░░ on your base keep ░░░░░░░░ I think of investors ░░░░░░░░ say another still there ░░░░░░░░ still evidence of inflation ░░░░░░░░ it does matter Goods ░░░░░░░░ have really cooled off ░░░░░░░░ have been negative in ░░░░░░░░ last few months that ░░░░░░░░ down for inflation but ░░░░░░░░ we haven t seen ░░░░░░░░ think that s not ░░░░░░░░ in my opinion is ░░░░░░░░ need to see housing ░░░░░░░░ off more and this ░░░░░░░░ and we need to ░░░░░░░░ everything else not housing ░░░░░░░░ that needs to cool ░░░░░░░░ a bit more So ░░░░░░░░ I don t think ░░░░░░░░ ve seen enough this ░░░░░░░░ yet and if you ░░░░░░░░ t get us is ░░░░░░░░ print or even a ░░░░░░░░ print spicy print If ░░░░░░░░ will tomorrow I mean ░░░░░░░░ that which is add ░░░░░░░░ that that feeling because ░░░░░░░░ doesn t it doesn ░░░░░░░░ matter Even if we ░░░░░░░░ a point three tomorrow ░░░░░░░░ Oliver we would still ░░░░░░░░ three point seven percent ░░░░░░░░ over year on course ░░░░░░░░ which is to I ░░░░░░░░ too high to up ░░░░░░░░ this point Verses if ░░░░░░░░ like it s much ░░░░░░░░ a win discussion than ░░░░░░░░ f Is there any ░░░░░░░░ in your mind where ░░░░░░░░ Fed just keeps holding ░░░░░░░░ Yeah would have if ░░░░░░░░ get a scenario where ░░░░░░░░ picks back up So ░░░░░░░░ get up You don ░░░░░░░░ pick up in goods ░░░░░░░░ Housing remains sticky not ░░░░░░░░ Services doesn t really ░░░░░░░░ off So you get ░░░░░░░░ more We just stall ░░░░░░░░ like you could imagine ░░░░░░░░ scenario where you get ░░░░░░░░ core cpu month a ░░░░░░░░ like you said you ░░░░░░░░ those points Course of ░░░░░░░░ year you re you ░░░░░░░░ somewhere around three three ░░░░░░░░ four percent in that ░░░░░░░░ I think that s ░░░░░░░░ I that that is ░░░░░░░░ is inflation That gets ░░░░░░░░ off for where we ░░░░░░░░ last summer No doubt ░░░░░░░░ questions There are no ░░░░░░░░ for me but I ░░░░░░░░ think it three two ░░░░░░░░ nap or Senate you ░░░░░░░░ you re too high ░░░░░░░░ course API So in ░░░░░░░░ situation of the Fed ░░░░░░░░ t cut so we ░░░░░░░░ still we re still ░░░░░░░░ in a when we ░░░░░░░░ still it and if ░░░░░░░░ if to to use ░░░░░░░░ Doubly out of put ░░░░░░░░ as a bit of ░░░░░░░░ outlier because the market ░░░░░░░░ to be very convinced ░░░░░░░░ if it s not ░░░░░░░░ it will be may ░░░░░░░░ that there s like ░░░░░░░░ scenario we re not ░░░░░░░░ by the summer At ░░░░░░░░ I mean even as ░░░░░░░░ see the gyrations between ░░░░░░░░ and may June July ░░░░░░░░ beyond it is like ░░░░░░░░ total lock So I ░░░░░░░░ the contrarian play right ░░░░░░░░ would just be to ░░░░░░░░ that maybe we don ░░░░░░░░ start by the summer ░░░░░░░░ that s right and ░░░░░░░░ think also in my ░░░░░░░░ Oliver if you go ░░░░░░░░ two weeks at that ░░░░░░░░ people were saying you ░░░░░░░░ fifty out your maybe ░░░░░░░░ forty four March So ░░░░░░░░ it s just like ░░░░░░░░ s gotten pushed out ░░░░░░░░ may so maybe I ░░░░░░░░ get pushed out again ░░░░░░░░ s also I think ░░░░░░░░ should consider your yeah ░░░░░░░░ so then what Everybody ░░░░░░░░ along keep saying like ░░░░░░░░ into duration further and ░░░░░░░░ and further I mean ░░░░░░░░ guess that wouldn t ░░░░░░░░ with you so much ░░░░░░░░ m not That does ░░░░░░░░ resonate I mean the ░░░░░░░░ to really add to ░░░░░░░░ In our view is ░░░░░░░░ need to have inflation ░░░░░░░░ on target so you ░░░░░░░░ month a month Change ░░░░░░░░ to be cooler That ░░░░░░░░ we re willing to ░░░░░░░░ more than is already ░░░░░░░░ in Oliver I don ░░░░░░░░ see that based on ░░░░░░░░ s priced in probably ░░░░░░░░ many cuts already priced ░░░░░░░░ So that s that ░░░░░░░░ not a that s ░░░░░░░░ a check mark for ░░░░░░░░ region In the third ░░░░░░░░ bross it s really ░░░░░░░░ Historically speaking you need ░░░░░░░░ have a deterioration The ░░░░░░░░ market you need that ░░░░░░░░ weaker labor market conditions ░░░░░░░░ three month average all ░░░░░░░░ two hundred and 80 ░░░░░░░░ thousand jobs in the ░░░░░░░░ month average That is ░░░░░░░░ too strong of a ░░░░░░░░ market to really I ░░░░░░░░ get bullish on on ░░░░░░░░ In our view is ░░░░░░░░ any truth to the ░░░░░░░░ that the policy is ░░░░░░░░ restricted by mean I ░░░░░░░░ that s like the ░░░░░░░░ it s been over ░░░░░░░░ okay we have to ░░░░░░░░ because a restrictive I ░░░░░░░░ t get jet where ░░░░░░░░ is coming from At ░░░░░░░░ point I was bleeding ░░░░░░░░ Pulling back regional banks ░░░░░░░░ freaking us out few ░░░░░░░░ here and there but ░░░░░░░░ now that we ve ░░░░░░░░ the way the economy ░░░░░░░░ and then came back ░░░░░░░░ last five months I ░░░░░░░░ Where is this idea ░░░░░░░░ we re restrictive What ░░░░░░░░ it called from Should ░░░░░░░░ take people seriously we ░░░░░░░░ saying that most up ░░░░░░░░ people that I talk ░░░░░░░░ overstate look at real ░░░░░░░░ funds You know the ░░░░░░░░ Nominal rate you strip ░░░░░░░░ some measure of core ░░░░░░░░ That is modestly positive ░░░░░░░░ so people say look ░░░░░░░░ restrictive You re camp ░░░░░░░░ just say okay but ░░░░░░░░ s something we can ░░░░░░░░ really observe in real ░░░░░░░░ So let s look ░░░░░░░░ the evidence Let s ░░░░░░░░ a growth that seems ░░░░░░░░ be holed up In ░░░░░░░░ you might have accelerated ░░░░░░░░ growth is accelerated You ░░░░░░░░ the the comments from ░░░░░░░░ Fed chair at the ░░░░░░░░ meeting He was talking ░░░░░░░░ going around surveying talking ░░░░░░░░ people in terms of ░░░░░░░░ page book and things ░░░░░░░░ actually picked up So ░░░░░░░░ think to your point ░░░░░░░░ there s an argument ░░░░░░░░ things are as restrictive ░░░░░░░░ people imagine or maybe ░░░░░░░░ re not that restrict ░░░░░░░░ m definitely open to ░░░░░░░░ of viewpoint Do you ░░░░░░░░ any concerns about a ░░░░░░░░ of debt Ah on ░░░░░░░░ horizon in the commercial ░░░░░░░░ estate Of the real ░░░░░░░░ chatter out there are ░░░░░░░░ that to be up ░░░░░░░░ night I it was ░░░░░░░░ concerned we we know ░░░░░░░░ looking at tightening of ░░░░░░░░ standards we saw bank ░░░░░░░░ slowing but that turned ░░░░░░░░ there ought to have ░░░░░░░░ huge impact in terms ░░░░░░░░ the spending activity and ░░░░░░░░ held up pretty well ░░░░░░░░ I think he know ░░░░░░░░ It was right to ░░░░░░░░ a little more concern ░░░░░░░░ March April but now ░░░░░░░░ in others concerns of ░░░░░░░░