RUSH TRANSCRIPT Krispy kreme ░░░░░░░░ others The key risks ░░░░░░░░ the c suite in ░░░░░░░░ First a check on ░░░░░░░░ markets A mixed start ░░░░░░░░ giving up the gains ░░░░░░░░ on 11 point increase ░░░░░░░░ P is down two ░░░░░░░░ of 1 and the ░░░░░░░░ is down 1 75 ░░░░░░░░ below 15 000 Crypto ░░░░░░░░ on the other hand ░░░░░░░░ the year quite strong ░░░░░░░░ back above 45 000 ░░░░░░░░ the first time since ░░░░░░░░ More op that ahead ░░░░░░░░ lots of headlines in ░░░░░░░░ EV market Tesla beating ░░░░░░░░ estimates Rivian missing those ░░░░░░░░ down more than 10 ░░░░░░░░ ll trade in three ░░░░░░░░ lunch A big downgrade ░░░░░░░░ apple Barclays lowering to ░░░░░░░░ weight saying it s ░░░░░░░░ for a breather with ░░░░░░░░ Microsoft close to surpassing ░░░░░░░░ s market cap Interesting ░░░░░░░░ the magnificent seven dominance ░░░░░░░░ year It begs the ░░░░░░░░ what name and themes ░░░░░░░░ matter this year Let ░░░░░░░░ start with Mike Santoli ░░░░░░░░ do you say Mike ░░░░░░░░ and names that will ░░░░░░░░ the year Well Tyler ░░░░░░░░ terms of themes you ░░░░░░░░ to acknowledge given the ░░░░░░░░ made into the equity ░░░░░░░░ the market s pleasure ░░░░░░░░ is higher It will ░░░░░░░░ more good news as ░░░░░░░░ to the absence of ░░░░░░░░ bad news to keep ░░░░░░░░ moving in a positive ░░░░░░░░ for stocks But I ░░░░░░░░ still think we re ░░░░░░░░ a moment where good ░░░░░░░░ for the economy can ░░░░░░░░ good news for the ░░░░░░░░ I think the October ░░░░░░░░ report back in November ░░░░░░░░ was encouraging along this ░░░░░░░░ Gave leeway to the ░░░░░░░░ to say good economic ░░░░░░░░ is not something that ░░░░░░░░ re going to have ░░░░░░░░ fight outright as long ░░░░░░░░ inflation moves in the ░░░░░░░░ direction To that point ░░░░░░░░ don t really believe ░░░░░░░░ stock market just because ░░░░░░░░ re at 4750 on ░░░░░░░░ S P and the ░░░░░░░░ funds future market sees ░░░░░░░░ bases points of cuts ░░░░░░░░ later this year that ░░░░░░░░ need those cuts to ░░░░░░░░ where the stock market ░░░░░░░░ One year ago the ░░░░░░░░ said we were the ░░░░░░░░ would be cutting through ░░░░░░░░ second half of 2023 ░░░░░░░░ didn t happen The ░░░░░░░░ went higher So I ░░░░░░░░ those are two separate ░░░░░░░░ And then finally I ░░░░░░░░ t really focus too ░░░░░░░░ on the supposed cash ░░░░░░░░ the sidelines argument Yeah ░░░░░░░░ lot of money went ░░░░░░░░ money market and bond ░░░░░░░░ last year but that ░░░░░░░░ t necessarily mean it ░░░░░░░░ a zero sum gain ░░░░░░░░ you have to watch ░░░░░░░░ the assets to make ░░░░░░░░ way into stocks People ░░░░░░░░ decent healthy asset allocations ░░░░░░░░ Doesn t mean the ░░░░░░░░ market hates it Thank ░░░░░░░░ Michael Stay there as ░░░░░░░░ bring in our next ░░░░░░░░ who held on to ░░░░░░░░ growth tech stocks last ░░░░░░░░ and had a net ░░░░░░░░ of some 60 Let ░░░░░░░░ bring in Peter Anderson ░░░░░░░░ investment officer with Anderson ░░░░░░░░ management Happy new year ░░░░░░░░ Great to kick off ░░░░░░░░ new year with you ░░░░░░░░ held on to tech ░░░░░░░░ said no recession last ░░░░░░░░ You were right You ░░░░░░░░ right on technology What ░░░░░░░░ you say for this ░░░░░░░░ recession or not hold ░░░░░░░░ or not I don ░░░░░░░░ think there s going ░░░░░░░░ be a recession this ░░░░░░░░ I also don t ░░░░░░░░ that the Fed is ░░░░░░░░ to cut rates I ░░░░░░░░ be on a different ░░░░░░░░ Tyler because I just ░░░░░░░░ rationalize the thoughts of ░░░░░░░░ we would have a ░░░░░░░░ cut as o opposed ░░░░░░░░ several rate cuts I ░░░░░░░░ think tech some of ░░░░░░░░ themes you were talking ░░░░░░░░ earlier let me add ░░░░░░░░ to that I think ░░░░░░░░ of the more alarming ░░░░░░░░ is when AI gets ░░░░░░░░ to hackers that will ░░░░░░░░ accelerate their capabilities of ░░░░░░░░ and will cause far ░░░░░░░░ necessary diligence on protecting ░░░░░░░░ So data security companies ░░░░░░░░ think are going to ░░░░░░░░ well again this year ░░░░░░░░ that would be a ░░░░░░░░ alto networks cyber arc ░░░░░░░░ could be others in ░░░░░░░░ neighborhood Are you implying ░░░░░░░░ little bit Peter that ░░░░░░░░ of the Bloom is ░░░░░░░░ to come off of ░░░░░░░░ AI rose to use ░░░░░░░░ cliche because of the ░░░░░░░░ you cite the ability ░░░░░░░░ bad actors to use ░░░░░░░░ for bad purposes It ░░░░░░░░ an interesting approach you ░░░░░░░░ using Tyler I would ░░░░░░░░ with half of that ░░░░░░░░ that I do think ░░░░░░░░ of the Bloom will ░░░░░░░░ off the AI rose ░░░░░░░░ not for the reason ░░░░░░░░ stated Instead I think ░░░░░░░░ could happen is people ░░░░░░░░ have to refine their ░░░░░░░░ of what artificial intelligence ░░░░░░░░ do So far we ░░░░░░░░ been drunken sailers thinking ░░░░░░░░ this is going to ░░░░░░░░ every problem and humanity ░░░░░░░░ you do a deeper ░░░░░░░░ and look at the ░░░░░░░░ academic research they disagree ░░░░░░░░ us They think we ░░░░░░░░ far far from emulating ░░░░░░░░ thought and until we ░░░░░░░░ human thought we are ░░░░░░░░ artificial intelligence with just ░░░░░░░░ data production So to ░░░░░░░░ that I do think ░░░░░░░░ the AI we need ░░░░░░░░ refine our expectations AI ░░░░░░░░ not anywhere where we ░░░░░░░░ it is ironically and ░░░░░░░░ there s a lot ░░░░░░░░ work in research to ░░░░░░░░ done before we actually ░░░░░░░░ to be afraid that ░░░░░░░░ is going to take ░░░░░░░░ jobs for instance Well ░░░░░░░░ re sticking with nvidia ░░░░░░░░ You re sticking with ░░░░░░░░ market and stuck with ░░░░░░░░ last year in spite ░░░░░░░░ all the negativity out ░░░░░░░░ And you re sticking ░░░░░░░░ it even though you ░░░░░░░░ not sure we re ░░░░░░░░ to get a lot ░░░░░░░░ fed rate cuts this ░░░░░░░░ That s right I ░░░░░░░░ t think that we ░░░░░░░░ be dependent the performance ░░░░░░░░ these stocks I don ░░░░░░░░ think will be dependent ░░░░░░░░ rate cuts And Kelly ░░░░░░░░ know if we look ░░░░░░░░ say 20 years which ░░░░░░░░ some of us I ░░░░░░░░ is a life time ░░░░░░░░ when you look past ░░░░░░░░ 20 year horizon rates ░░░░░░░░ much higher than the ░░░░░░░░ rates now So the ░░░░░░░░ comes you know how ░░░░░░░░ is a cycle What ░░░░░░░░ a normal rate environment ░░░░░░░░ I guess I tend ░░░░░░░░ disagree with the general ░░░░░░░░ that rates are unnaturally ░░░░░░░░ right now If anything ░░░░░░░░ think they re approaching ░░░░░░░░ vertex where we would ░░░░░░░░ that rates are normalized ░░░░░░░░ that the Fed will ░░░░░░░░ have to cut rates ░░░░░░░░ year and perhaps even ░░░░░░░░ the next year So ░░░░░░░░ let me turn back ░░░░░░░░ you and get your ░░░░░░░░ reactions to what Peter ░░░░░░░░ saying here 2023 was ░░░░░░░░ the year of AI ░░░░░░░░ was clearly the year ░░░░░░░░ nvidia and more broadly ░░░░░░░░ those big cap tech ░░░░░░░░ like Meta which had ░░░░░░░░ fantastic year Yeah What ░░░░░░░░ you see on the ░░░░░░░░ for 2024 Is AI ░░░░░░░░ to be another dominant ░░░░░░░░ again this year Will ░░░░░░░░ Tech continue to dominate ░░░░░░░░ it did last year ░░░░░░░░ not I m not ░░░░░░░░ that it s going ░░░░░░░░ move monolithingly as it ░░░░░░░░ perceived to have done ░░░░░░░░ year Nvidia in particular ░░░░░░░░ think of the magnificent ░░░░░░░░ dominance Every other stock ░░░░░░░░ what it did in ░░░░░░░░ and nvidia was flat ░░░░░░░░ S P would have ░░░░░░░░ up I believe 18 ░░░░░░░░ 16 instead of 24 ░░░░░░░░ the equal weighted S ░░░░░░░░ would be up 12 ░░░░░░░░ wouldn t talk about ░░░░░░░░ crazy narrow market Nvidia ░░░░░░░░ a tremendous amount of ░░░░░░░░ oxygen My guess is ░░░░░░░░ will look to have ░░░░░░░░ theme splinter out and ░░░░░░░░ for other ways to ░░░░░░░░ it I m more ░░░░░░░░ though Tyler in the ░░░░░░░░ that cyclical stocks continue ░░░░░░░░ outperform pure defensive stocks ░░░░░░░░ that really changes I ░░░░░░░░ not sure we have ░░░░░░░░ think of it as ░░░░░░░░ pure secular growth dominated ░░░░░░░░ market It seems like ░░░░░░░░ now if the we ░░░░░░░░ argue about whether the ░░░░░░░░ should cut rates at ░░░░░░░░ I don t think ░░░░░░░░ s going to be ░░░░░░░░ lot of rate cuts ░░░░░░░░ the economy buckles But ░░░░░░░░ think neutral rates are ░░░░░░░░ 2 5 or 3 ░░░░░░░░ s why I think ░░░░░░░░ idea of peacetime rate ░░░░░░░░ has gotten a lot ░░░░░░░░ adoption That s where ░░░░░░░░ want to end with ░░░░░░░░ Peter and pin you ░░░░░░░░ a little bit Are ░░░░░░░░ saying a year from ░░░░░░░░ when we re back ░░░░░░░░ and I hope you ░░░░░░░░ be with us on ░░░░░░░░ 2nd next year that ░░░░░░░░ year from today the ░░░░░░░░ funds rate will still ░░░░░░░░ at that 5 5 ░░░░░░░░ 5 25 to 5 ░░░░░░░░ level or will it ░░░░░░░░ down at all I ░░░░░░░░ hoping against I guess ░░░░░░░░ narrative out there that ░░░░░░░░ will stay about the ░░░░░░░░ Because I think even ░░░░░░░░ that level you can ░░░░░░░░ a normally operating economy ░░░░░░░░ fact probably an even ░░░░░░░░ economy flying in the ░░░░░░░░ of what some are ░░░░░░░░ unnecessarily high rates now ░░░░░░░░ I do not think ░░░░░░░░ Fed is going to ░░░░░░░░ rates I look forward ░░░░░░░░ seeing you this time ░░░░░░░░ year I do too ░░░░░░░░ you Peter Appreciate it ░░░░░░░░ to see you again ░░░░░░░░ may you have a ░░░░░░░░ and