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Date
Summary
Katerina Simonetti
Source
CNBC

Name: CNBC

URL: http://www.cnbc.com/

Show
Persons
Katerina Simonetti

Name: Katerina Simonetti

Employment: Morgan Stanley

Position: Executive Director, Private Wealth Advisor, Portfolio Management Director

Event
Event location
Uploaded
11/02/2023 08:07 am
Owner
Alex (staff)
Type
Video
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MP4 (1920x1080) Use clipper to adjust file type
Duration
0:05:09
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Transcript
In the past The ░░░░░░░░ question that matters is ░░░░░░░░ s going to happen ░░░░░░░░ forward Let s bring ░░░░░░░░ our panel Global advisers ░░░░░░░░ partner Mr Tom Lee ░░░░░░░░ senior vp at Morgan ░░░░░░░░ private wealth management katarina ░░░░░░░░ The market seemed to ░░░░░░░░ didn t love it ░░░░░░░░ of a strong like ░░░░░░░░ you will should have ░░░░░░░░ did we misread it ░░░░░░░░ from the Fed today ░░░░░░░░ gt well Brian today ░░░░░░░░ pause by today s ░░░░░░░░ Reserve was highly anticipated ░░░░░░░░ the market Rates on ░░░░░░░░ have been going up ░░░░░░░░ the last couple of ░░░░░░░░ so in essence the ░░░░░░░░ market has been doing ░░░░░░░░ Fed s job the ░░░░░░░░ did mention that the ░░░░░░░░ credit and financial environment ░░░░░░░░ pushes the cost borrowing ░░░░░░░░ credit cards and mortgages ░░░░░░░░ of course on corporate ░░░░░░░░ and is having a ░░░░░░░░ effect on the corporate ░░░░░░░░ consumer confidence and it ░░░░░░░░ only a matter of ░░░░░░░░ that s going to ░░░░░░░░ translated into earnings and ░░░░░░░░ the Fed might be ░░░░░░░░ raising rates you know ░░░░░░░░ re not quite at ░░░░░░░░ point where they are ░░░░░░░░ to cut and this ░░░░░░░░ that this narrative might ░░░░░░░░ here to stay gt ░░░░░░░░ the bond market is ░░░░░░░░ the Fed s job ░░░░░░░░ what is the Fed ░░░░░░░░ job If the bond ░░░░░░░░ is moving yields around ░░░░░░░░ was the Fed until ░░░░░░░░ continued to aggressively raise ░░░░░░░░ To katarina s point ░░░░░░░░ the bond market knew ░░░░░░░░ would be the path ░░░░░░░░ gt today might be ░░░░░░░░ first press conference where ░░░░░░░░ Fed is shifting away ░░░░░░░░ data dependence gt gt ░░░░░░░░ gt gt a couple ░░░░░░░░ things came up One ░░░░░░░░ a question about you ░░░░░░░░ inflation expectations jumped and ░░░░░░░░ was quick to dismiss ░░░░░░░░ saying a lot of ░░░░░░░░ surveys show inflation is ░░░░░░░░ a good place expectations ░░░░░░░░ then the question came ░░░░░░░░ about you know above ░░░░░░░░ growth If the Fed ░░░░░░░░ data dependant they would ░░░░░░░░ to push that down ░░░░░░░░ they said we can ░░░░░░░░ labor dynamics driving that ░░░░░░░░ they noted progress on ░░░░░░░░ pce report from last ░░░░░░░░ I mean that s ░░░░░░░░ forward looking view because ░░░░░░░░ an absolute basis that ░░░░░░░░ still a high number ░░░░░░░░ gt you think they ░░░░░░░░ going with the gut ░░░░░░░░ they are not data ░░░░░░░░ entirely they are going ░░░░░░░░ all the fields gt ░░░░░░░░ that would allow them ░░░░░░░░ look at the move ░░░░░░░░ long term rates and ░░░░░░░░ allows them to be ░░░░░░░░ and as long as ░░░░░░░░ expectations are anchored and ░░░░░░░░ don t pass on ░░░░░░░░ increases I think inflation ░░░░░░░░ going to cool pretty ░░░░░░░░ gt gt katarina 1994 ░░░░░░░░ Federal Reserve raised interest ░░░░░░░░ 2 5 we dal ░░░░░░░░ basis points in the ░░░░░░░░ and in 95 the ░░░░░░░░ had up of its ░░░░░░░░ years ever rising 30 ░░░░░░░░ lot of worries about ░░░░░░░░ economy and have been ░░░░░░░░ the way for two ░░░░░░░░ and they have been ░░░░░░░░ Are you anticipating a ░░░░░░░░ stock market going forward ░░░░░░░░ gt well Brian I ░░░░░░░░ with Tom You know ░░░░░░░░ have to look at ░░░░░░░░ s action and figure ░░░░░░░░ how much of it ░░░░░░░░ actually data dependency and ░░░░░░░░ much is just them ░░░░░░░░ time and going with ░░░░░░░░ narrative just giving their ░░░░░░░░ time to work and ░░░░░░░░ that inflation is going ░░░░░░░░ actually come down to ░░░░░░░░ levels that they are ░░░░░░░░ for without pushing us ░░░░░░░░ the economic recession but ░░░░░░░░ we see higher interest ░░░░░░░░ affecting the potential earnings ░░░░░░░░ narrowing the margins which ░░░░░░░░ making it difficult to ░░░░░░░░ excited about the fourth ░░░░░░░░ rally As a matter ░░░░░░░░ fact you know our ░░░░░░░░ for the next year ░░░░░░░░ becoming a little bit ░░░░░░░░ optimistic as the risks ░░░░░░░░ the stock market are ░░░░░░░░ to the negative gt ░░░░░░░░ okay gt gt so ░░░░░░░░ re staying defensive gt ░░░░░░░░ but you wouldn t ░░░░░░░░ yourself bearish would you ░░░░░░░░ s kind of gt ░░░░░░░░ not quite I would ░░░░░░░░ I would call it ░░░░░░░░ defensive excited about cash ░░░░░░░░ about bonds and looking ░░░░░░░░ the sectors of the ░░░░░░░░ market that are positioned ░░░░░░░░ growth which might not ░░░░░░░░ the sectors that performed ░░░░░░░░ like industrials financials energy ░░░░░░░░ health care gt gt ░░░░░░░░ are you still bullish ░░░░░░░░ gt yeah gt gt ░░░░░░░░ gt gt I mean ░░░░░░░░ think gt gt a ░░░░░░░░ blip in October didn ░░░░░░░░ scare you off gt ░░░░░░░░ I mean there was ░░░░░░░░ lot of technical damage ░░░░░░░░ the surface and so ░░░░░░░░ s going to take ░░░░░░░░ to repair That s ░░░░░░░░ it s a babe ░░░░░░░░ that started this week ░░░░░░░░ you know if next ░░░░░░░░ the Fed feels comfortable ░░░░░░░░ inflation is heading in ░░░░░░░░ right place and investors ░░░░░░░░ like inflation is kind ░░░░░░░░ leaving the scene I ░░░░░░░░ there would be a ░░░░░░░░ of positive changes and ░░░░░░░░ and a huge allocation ░░░░░░░░ into stocks and you ░░░░░░░░ I think long term ░░░░░░░░ would come down gt ░░░░░░░░ when we first and ░░░░░░░░ ve got get to ░░░░░░░░ sound but quickly When ░░░░░░░░ win we get our ░░░░░░░░ sniff of a rate ░░░░░░░░ is that a sign ░░░░░░░░ sell oar sign to ░░░░░░░░ gt gt I think ░░░░░░░░ is so much money ░░░░░░░░ has moved out of ░░░░░░░░ right? Equities have no
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