RUSH TRANSCRIPT Goodevening here ░░░░░░░░ good afternoon out west ░░░░░░░░ We re going to ░░░░░░░░ to all those stories ░░░░░░░░ up but first up ░░░░░░░░ big warning sign from ░░░░░░░░ super rich Tonight on ░░░░░░░░ rollover of the rich ░░░░░░░░ famous your vip journey ░░░░░░░░ the dazzling losses of ░░░░░░░░ s most luck sure ░░░░░░░░ companies Losing a stunning ░░░░░░░░ billion in a decadent ░░░░░░░░ of destruction caviar dreams ░░░░░░░░ champagne wishes tossed overboard ░░░░░░░░ the luck of the ░░░░░░░░ may finally be running ░░░░░░░░ I don t want ░░░░░░░░ hear your tweets about ░░░░░░░░ bad British accent I ░░░░░░░░ We were trying to ░░░░░░░░ a little tongue to ░░░░░░░░ okay But what happened ░░░░░░░░ was serious under the ░░░░░░░░ of the market shares ░░░░░░░░ shares in these popular ░░░░░░░░ and companies tanking today ░░░░░░░░ have something to do ░░░░░░░░ China as well It ░░░░░░░░ important because this has ░░░░░░░░ the unbreakable part of ░░░░░░░░ economy It s the ░░░░░░░░ after all But there ░░░░░░░░ appear to be signs ░░░░░░░░ cracks that also were ░░░░░░░░ according to new analysis ░░░░░░░░ of doiche bank This ░░░░░░░░ be a sign that ░░░░░░░░ higher interest rates could ░░░░░░░░ an impact on the ░░░░░░░░ top of the economic ░░░░░░░░ So let s talk ░░░░░░░░ it and broaden it ░░░░░░░░ our research strategist Daniel ░░░░░░░░ storch and the former ░░░░░░░░ of toys are us ░░░░░░░░ our friend January Jan ░░░░░░░░ Thank you all for ░░░░░░░░ us the first time ░░░░░░░░ last call for all ░░░░░░░░ you so welcome Daniel ░░░░░░░░ know people say the ░░░░░░░░ are immune to everything ░░░░░░░░ higher rates higher cost ░░░░░░░░ capital You wonder could ░░░░░░░░ also hit the rich ░░░░░░░░ us Brian it s ░░░░░░░░ feasible and I know ░░░░░░░░ segment sounds a little ░░░░░░░░ tongue and cheekish But ░░░░░░░░ largest economy in the ░░░░░░░░ with 70 consumption account ░░░░░░░░ more than 45 of ░░░░░░░░ here I keep lvmh ░░░░░░░░ on my dashboard at ░░░░░░░░ times because this is ░░░░░░░░ to gauge how the ░░░░░░░░ effect is working in ░░░░░░░░ good way or in ░░░░░░░░ which you don t ░░░░░░░░ to see Again we ░░░░░░░░ an economy that is ░░░░░░░░ by consumptions and it ░░░░░░░░ like the confluence of ░░░░░░░░ between central banks tightening ░░░░░░░░ and what we re ░░░░░░░░ with the debt ceiling ░░░░░░░░ like these factors are ░░░░░░░░ together Visa was the ░░░░░░░░ performing today I saw ░░░░░░░░ note that retail foot ░░░░░░░░ which I know Jan ░░░░░░░░ we ll get to ░░░░░░░░ in a second was ░░░░░░░░ worst so far of ░░░░░░░░ year and the higher ░░░░░░░░ of callal really impacts ░░░░░░░░ the most because you ░░░░░░░░ that free cash flow ░░░░░░░░ really make these projects ░░░░░░░░ How will or how ░░░░░░░░ higher rates hit retail ░░░░░░░░ the consumer Look Every ░░░░░░░░ is worried That s ░░░░░░░░ bottom line lowering consumers ░░░░░░░░ been stressed for some ░░░░░░░░ the middle income consumers ░░░░░░░░ been trading down And ░░░░░░░░ the aspirational younger consumers ░░░░░░░░ been part of what ░░░░░░░░ filled the luxury boom ░░░░░░░░ the u s a ░░░░░░░░ of them are the ░░░░░░░░ losing their jobs at ░░░░░░░░ high tech companies out ░░░░░░░░ California meanwhile the highest ░░░░░░░░ segment watches the stock ░░░░░░░░ every day and there ░░░░░░░░ a perfect correlation between ░░░░░░░░ goods and the stock ░░░░░░░░ very high correlation The ░░░░░░░░ market really hit the ░░░░░░░░ last fall as you ░░░░░░░░ and luxury did not ░░░░░░░░ a good Christmas It ░░░░░░░░ been flat ever since ░░░░░░░░ are worry zbld Jan ░░░░░░░░ s weeping for the ░░░░░░░░ We just saw Jeff ░░░░░░░░ with a 20 carat ░░░░░░░░ on his wife s ░░░░░░░░ Is it for lack ░░░░░░░░ a Robin s egg ░░░░░░░░ a gold mine Jeff ░░░░░░░░ t cut back on ░░░░░░░░ spending and even though ░░░░░░░░ agree with everything I ░░░░░░░░ from both the other ░░░░░░░░ the people at the ░░░░░░░░ can barely see the ░░░░░░░░ at the top of ░░░░░░░░ top quintile remember when ░░░░░░░░ look at these true ░░░░░░░░ players you named 2 ░░░░░░░░ their customers buy 40 ░░░░░░░░ the stuff because that ░░░░░░░░ where the money is ░░░░░░░░ we re still seeing ░░░░░░░░ strong interest in the ░░░░░░░░ high end of that ░░░░░░░░ a matter of fact ░░░░░░░░ companies have all actually ░░░░░░░░ up and they ve ░░░░░░░░ of let go of ░░░░░░░░ lowest end aspirational customer ░░░░░░░░ they were getting such ░░░░░░░░ traction at the top ░░░░░░░░ about it chanel moved ░░░░░░░░ price of their top ░░░░░░░░ to the same price ░░░░░░░░ another bag That is ░░░░░░░░ 000 plus bucks a ░░░░░░░░ and you can t ░░░░░░░░ one if you want ░░░░░░░░ the U S is ░░░░░░░░ a little at the ░░░░░░░░ and it is the ░░░░░░░░ customer and the aspirational ░░░░░░░░ but China s picking ░░░░░░░░ the slack on that ░░░░░░░░ far We hope we ░░░░░░░░ get to China in ░░░░░░░░ little bit because there ░░░░░░░░ some issues there some ░░░░░░░░ about new Covid warnings ░░░░░░░░ first recession warnings not ░░░░░░░░ coming out of luxury ░░░░░░░░ s what Goldman Sachs ░░░░░░░░ said today at CNBC ░░░░░░░░ council summit I think ░░░░░░░░ s a greater chance ░░░░░░░░ a recession than not ░░░░░░░░ we look at the ░░░░░░░░ of the year into ░░░░░░░░ 2024 but I would ░░░░░░░░ it s uncertain if ░░░░░░░░ is a recession my ░░░░░░░░ guess is it will ░░░░░░░░ relatively shallow The tight ░░░░░░░░ conditions and having the ░░░░░░░░ we have and not ░░░░░░░░ have an impact on ░░░░░░░░ growth Some of this ░░░░░░░░ the rebalancing of the ░░░░░░░░ from the pandemic we ░░░░░░░░ see This has been ░░░░░░░░ most called for recession ░░░░░░░░ global history We re ░░░░░░░░ innocent of that as ░░░░░░░░ but you go to ░░░░░░░░ s restaurant in Dallas ░░░░░░░░ s packed you go ░░░░░░░░ in northbound it s ░░░░░░░░ You go to even ░░░░░░░░ it s packed San ░░░░░░░░ s got its own ░░░░░░░░ but do you think ░░░░░░░░ is a recession that ░░░░░░░░ coming and if so ░░░░░░░░ will it look like ░░░░░░░░ long lasting Because we ░░░░░░░░ t know the impact ░░░░░░░░ ve never thishad this ░░░░░░░░ of rate hike cycle ░░░░░░░░ re right to look ░░░░░░░░ the delta between where ░░░░░░░░ hikes started and where ░░░░░░░░ are now it s ░░░░░░░░ an extreme We ve ░░░░░░░░ all kinds of fiscal ░░░░░░░░ that have continued to ░░░░░░░░ into the U S ░░░░░░░░ The Wall Street Journal ░░░░░░░░ a good story about ░░░░░░░░ employee retention credit it ░░░░░░░░ pumped 150 billion extra ░░░░░░░░ into the U S ░░░░░░░░ that s been deployed ░░░░░░░░ luxury travel uber luxury ░░░░░░░░ in just the past ░░░░░░░░ or so that s ░░░░░░░░ that went straight to ░░░░░░░░ top straight to the ░░░░░░░░ business owners That s ░░░░░░░░ to ebb and we ░░░░░░░░ now seeing 80 of ░░░░░░░░ population lives in states ░░░░░░░░ rising jobless claims And ░░░░░░░░ you start hearing that ░░░░░░░░ s moving beyond this ░░░░░░░░ collar recession that shields ░░░░░░░░ broader economy once you ░░░░░░░░ out that more than ░░░░░░░░ 3 of states have ░░░░░░░░ initial jobless claims 80 ░░░░░░░░ rising continuous jobless claims ░░░░░░░░ are real numbers There ░░░░░░░░ this recession realization we ░░░░░░░░ going through right now ░░░░░░░░ think probably a trillion ░░░░░░░░ on credit cards at ░░░░░░░░ point 980 billion was ░░░░░░░░ last number The average ░░░░░░░░ card rate apr is ░░░░░░░░ 20 now everybody kind ░░░░░░░░ went nuts for good ░░░░░░░░ by the way after ░░░░░░░░ pandemic you do wonder ░░░░░░░░ at price action and ░░░░░░░░ et cetera today will ░░░░░░░░ bill come due and ░░░░░░░░ so what is it ░░░░░░░░ to look like Well ░░░░░░░░ s no doubt credit ░░░░░░░░ are the highest cost ░░░░░░░░ available to today s ░░░░░░░░ Whether it s an ░░░░░░░░ or a company when ░░░░░░░░ start going to their ░░░░░░░░ cost form of financing ░░░░░░░░ aren t very good ░░░░░░░░ s not just that ░░░░░░░░ is up it s ░░░░░░░░ credit card spending is ░░░░░░░░ That s the most ░░░░░░░░ thing you re seeing ░░░░░░░░ there And we don ░░░░░░░░ know there s a ░░░░░░░░ coming or not It ░░░░░░░░ hard to call it ░░░░░░░░ I tell you what ░░░░░░░░ a rocket ship has ░░░░░░░░ slow down before it ░░░░░░░░ reverse directions and start ░░░░░░░░ back par wards this ░░░░░░░░ ship of an economy ░░░░░░░░ had during the pandemic ░░░░░░░░ slowing down on every ░░░░░░░░ Even eating out at ░░░░░░░░ is slowing down month ░░░░░░░░ month after month Jan ░░░░░░░░ you travel around you ░░░░░░░░ the malls what are ░░░░░░░░ seeing on the ground ░░░░░░░░ re in a recession ░░░░░░░░ technology economics do it ░░░░░░░░ home We re not ░░░░░░░░ a recession yet on ░░░░░░░░ or travel or resorts ░░░░░░░░ are we in a ░░░░░░░░ are we six months ░░░░░░░░ are we 18 months ░░░░░░░░ I don t think ░░░░░░░░ has a clue because ░░░░░░░░ has ever seen anything ░░░░░░░░ this before Bit tell ░░░░░░░░ where we re not ░░░░░░░░ a recession and that ░░░░░░░░ high end luxury I ░░░░░░░░ down on canal street ░░░░░░░░ other day and I ░░░░░░░░ a burken bag for ░░░░░░░░ I thought about picking ░░░░░░░░ up maybe two Thank ░░░░░░░░ all.