RUSH TRANSCRIPT 245 points ░░░░░░░░ I want to bring ░░░░░░░░ Brian but David president ░░░░░░░░ I m jp wealth ░░░░░░░░ Brian thanks so much ░░░░░░░░ joining us Welcome to ░░░░░░░░ show What are you ░░░░░░░░ of how the markets ░░░░░░░░ moving today This kind ░░░░░░░░ a recovery that we ░░░░░░░░ seeing Now when investors ░░░░░░░░ taking a look at ░░░░░░░░ s going on they ░░░░░░░░ realizing that inflation By ░░░░░░░░ in expectations takes one ░░░░░░░░ Out of the algebra ░░░░░░░░ the Fed is going ░░░░░░░░ react next week I ░░░░░░░░ think that the market ░░░░░░░░ of A 25 basis ░░░░░░░░ or point to 5 ░░░░░░░░ increase makes sense because ░░░░░░░░ is still elevated though ░░░░░░░░ doubt And we re ░░░░░░░░ seeing inflation being stuck ░░░░░░░░ the services sector However ░░░░░░░░ know in light of ░░░░░░░░ know what s going ░░░░░░░░ all of the tools ░░░░░░░░ the Fed has to ░░░░░░░░ We ve seen that ░░░░░░░░ tools that used to ░░░░░░░░ to combat the concerns ░░░░░░░░ a painting crisis has ░░░░░░░░ helped to calm investors ░░░░░░░░ I think right testers ░░░░░░░░ looking ahead to what ░░░░░░░░ that Your directory of ░░░░░░░░ front of the Fed ░░░░░░░░ what should we expect ░░░░░░░░ April regarding corporate earnings ░░░░░░░░ said you know so ░░░░░░░░ concerns kind of quelled ░░░░░░░░ But also you know ░░░░░░░░ Biden really indicated that ░░░░░░░░ in these failed banks ░░░░░░░░ not be protected whatsoever ░░░░░░░░ how should investors be ░░░░░░░░ the markets amid the ░░░░░░░░ of the spp and ░░░░░░░░ bank collapses Think investors ░░░░░░░░ reminded that something that ░░░░░░░░ existed for 90 years ░░░░░░░░ f d I c ░░░░░░░░ actually matters regarding their ░░░░░░░░ And I think this ░░░░░░░░ is just an educational ░░░░░░░░ to say that excesses ░░░░░░░░ monetary policy and other ░░░░░░░░ that were passed in ░░░░░░░░ last couple years that ░░░░░░░░ us to this point ░░░░░░░░ have to come back ░░░░░░░░ the central point of ░░░░░░░░ which is understanding risks ░░░░░░░░ I think you know ░░░░░░░░ example of sbp has ░░░░░░░░ given us the ability ░░░░░░░░ save a broad base ░░░░░░░░ persecution is what makes ░░░░░░░░ in this environment And ░░░░░░░░ you look at risk ░░░░░░░░ going forward perspective you ░░░░░░░░ being being focused on ░░░░░░░░ flows taking advantage of ░░░░░░░░ term interest rates that ░░░░░░░░ that are yielding competitive ░░░░░░░░ that we haven t ░░░░░░░░ for a while I ░░░░░░░░ is it is a ░░░░░░░░ reminder of how you ░░░░░░░░ fully is constructed and ░░░░░░░░ you re thinking about ░░░░░░░░ moving forward because again ░░░░░░░░ the defense is going ░░░░░░░░ tap the brakes on ░░░░░░░░ growth I think the ░░░░░░░░ p a the banking ░░░░░░░░ could actually help the ░░░░░░░░ and slowing down growth ░░░░░░░░ the economy because it ░░░░░░░░ the 2 contraction of ░░░░░░░░ for banks recessing lending ░░░░░░░░ So I think all ░░░░░░░░ variables are are up ░░░░░░░░ grabs right now A ░░░░░░░░ of things to talk ░░░░░░░░ and I think will ░░░░░░░░ more about this over ░░░░░░░░ couple months as businesses ░░░░░░░░ reassessing the environment Yeah ░░░░░░░░ I want to talk ░░░░░░░░ consumer price index data ░░░░░░░░ we got out of ░░░░░░░░ morning for the month ░░░░░░░░ February We did see ░░░░░░░░ decelerating month over month ░░░░░░░░ over year core CPI ░░░░░░░░ take up about one ░░░░░░░░ of a percent What ░░░░░░░░ you making of this ░░░░░░░░ what it says about ░░░░░░░░ Fed s efforts to ░░░░░░░░ inflation And of course ░░░░░░░░ know they re a ░░░░░░░░ moving forward here Definitely ░░░░░░░░ mean we still expect ░░░░░░░░ Federal Reserve to increase ░░░░░░░░ rates over the next ░░░░░░░░ policy meetings But I ░░░░░░░░ know the recent data ░░░░░░░░ off of January to ░░░░░░░░ we are now shows ░░░░░░░░ there might have been ░░░░░░░░ seasonality with weather and ░░░░░░░░ factors that help to ░░░░░░░░ consumer in the month ░░░░░░░░ January which kind of ░░░░░░░░ as we as we ░░░░░░░░ we move through February ░░░░░░░░ I think the Fed ░░░░░░░░ still going to increase ░░░░░░░░ 25 basis points over ░░░░░░░░ next couple of meetings ░░░░░░░░ then I think they ░░░░░░░░ to signal was because ░░░░░░░░ reminder of what just ░░░░░░░░ in Silicon Valley bank ░░░░░░░░ signature bank as well ░░░░░░░░ that when you start ░░░░░░░░ from accommodation Now on ░░░░░░░░ period of time we ░░░░░░░░ in scarcity These things ░░░░░░░░ t things can break ░░░░░░░░ the economy I think ░░░░░░░░ Fed s aware of ░░░░░░░░ and they re going ░░░░░░░░ be a little bit ░░░░░░░░ sensitive to some of ░░░░░░░░ rate hikes moving forward ░░░░░░░░ being data dependent on ░░░░░░░░ go So I mean ░░░░░░░░ s my expectation over ░░░░░░░░ next couple of months ░░░░░░░░ with the tape with ░░░░░░░░ fact that you step ░░░░░░░░ on a cause in ░░░░░░░░ rates and seeing how ░░░░░░░░ play out It really ░░░░░░░░ back to the consumer ░░░░░░░░ demand in the economy ░░░░░░░░ that s really what ░░░░░░░░ driving inflation And as ░░░░░░░░ said before I think ░░░░░░░░ s factors that are ░░░░░░░░ yet to play out ░░░░░░░░ will show if the ░░░░░░░░ is probably going to ░░░░░░░░ going from some sort ░░░░░░░░ rolling recession or economic ░░░░░░░░ over the bounds of ░░░░░░░░ you know we do ░░░░░░░░ inflation to continue to ░░░░░░░░ down as as as ░░░░░░░░ go through the balance ░░░░░░░░ 20 twenty through it ░░░░░░░░ excuse me earnings briefly ░░░░░░░░ we did just kind ░░░░░░░░ come to the end ░░░░░░░░ earnings you know consensus ░░░░░░░░ it was in the ░░░░░░░░ one that we ve ░░░░░░░░ it Credit suisse saying ░░░░░░░░ was one of the ░░░░░░░░ in 24 years Oppenheim ░░░░░░░░ we saw earnings you ░░░░░░░░ decreased by about 3 ░░░░░░░░ What do you make ░░░░░░░░ earnings and what it ░░░░░░░░ for the rest of ░░░░░░░░ year and the broader ░░░░░░░░ economy Well I think ░░░░░░░░ earnings reports are signaling ░░░░░░░░ the economy is slowing ░░░░░░░░ s definitely different parts ░░░░░░░░ the economy that I ░░░░░░░░ actually say are in ░░░░░░░░ recession And and honestly ░░░░░░░░ earnings decline that we ░░░░░░░░ seeing is somewhat correlated ░░░░░░░░ the fact the cost ░░░░░░░░ costs of labor s ░░░░░░░░ a lot of companies ░░░░░░░░ different types of companies ░░░░░░░░ focusing on trying to ░░░░░░░░ their margins moving forward ░░░░░░░░ I think over the ░░░░░░░░ couple of quarters are ░░░░░░░░ to get more transparency ░░░░░░░░ see how effective management ░░░░░░░░ in trying to manage ░░░░░░░░ and underlying profitability While ░░░░░░░░ same point in time ░░░░░░░░ multiple sales is coming ░░░░░░░░ because interest rates are ░░░░░░░░ and the Fed is ░░░░░░░░ to maintain raids over ░░░░░░░░ balance of the year ░░░░░░░░ probably not cutting rates ░░░░░░░░ again that s all ░░░░░░░░ time you come from ░░░░░░░░ I don t believe ░░░░░░░░ re going to be ░░░░░░░░ into 18 per session ░░░░░░░░ deep economic decline So ░░░░░░░░ think as the year ░░░░░░░░ on investors will get ░░░░░░░░ comfortable with these earnings ░░░░░░░░ And then I think ░░░░░░░░ looking ahead to opportunities ░░░░░░░░ could lie with earnings ░░░░░░░░ in 2020 for 2025 ░░░░░░░░ right Brian bendik president ░░░░░░░░ m j p wealth ░░░░░░░░ Thanks so much for ░░░░░░░░ Fortunately out of time ░░░░░░░░ hope you ll come ░░░░░░░░ join us once again ░░░░░░░░ coming up we re ░░░░░░░░ an eye on the ░░░░░░░░ this morning after a ░░░░░░░░ start to the trading ░░░░░░░░ That and you need ░░░░░░░░ know headlines when wake ░░░░░░░░ with cheddar richards.