RUSH TRANSCRIPT Conversation Daniel ░░░░░░░░ booth joins us now ░░░░░░░░ you for joining us ░░░░░░░░ have got to start ░░░░░░░░ the Fed The jobs ░░░░░░░░ mended today There is ░░░░░░░░ inflation point next week ░░░░░░░░ does the Fed need ░░░░░░░░ move by 50 this ░░░░░░░░ We will find out ░░░░░░░░ It is unusual because ░░░░░░░░ the calendar that the ░░░░░░░░ would be pushing into ░░░░░░░░ 10 day blackout in ░░░░░░░░ payroll Friday It just ░░░░░░░░ to be the jobs ░░░░░░░░ is one Friday later ░░░░░░░░ it would normally be ░░░░░░░░ will barely be able ░░░░░░░░ react publicly to whatever ░░░░░░░░ reported and they will ░░░░░░░░ in radio silence mode ░░░░░░░░ Tuesday when the CPI ░░░░░░░░ is released They will ░░░░░░░░ to position themselves to ░░░░░░░░ raised by half a ░░░░░░░░ point very quickly like ░░░░░░░░ case was in January ░░░░░░░░ the payroll report comes ░░░░░░░░ harder than expected David ░░░░░░░░ do you think the ░░░░░░░░ will show Do you ░░░░░░░░ that is divorced from ░░░░░░░░ they move 25 or ░░░░░░░░ I think that the ░░░░░░░░ will show that there ░░░░░░░░ a higher terminal rate ░░░░░░░░ toward 6 that might ░░░░░░░░ be what markets want ░░░░░░░░ hear but it has ░░░░░░░░ validated by Powell s ░░░░░░░░ lieutenant on the reserve ░░░░░░░░ and the vice chair ░░░░░░░░ the Federal Reserve open ░░░░░░░░ committee and president of ░░░░░░░░ New York fed They ░░░░░░░░ reiterated what Powell is ░░░░░░░░ and that is we ░░░░░░░░ get rates higher than ░░░░░░░░ we expected and maintain ░░░░░░░░ throughout at least of ░░░░░░░░ remainder of 23 the ░░░░░░░░ continues to read the ░░░░░░░░ important fed officials continued ░░░░░░░░ say we are going ░░░░░░░░ defy the markets as ░░░░░░░░ to it is bizarre ░░░░░░░░ one year ago we ░░░░░░░░ be saying do not ░░░░░░░░ the Fed yet that ░░░░░░░░ exactly what the markets ░░░░░░░░ doing these days They ░░░░░░░░ fighting the Fed and ░░░░░░░░ speakers have to keep ░░░░░░░░ that back with hawkish ░░░░░░░░ David right and to ░░░░░░░░ extent up until recently ░░░░░░░░ have started to slightly ░░░░░░░░ to what the Fed ░░░░░░░░ been saying You mentioned ░░░░░░░░ is that proper within ░░░░░░░░ scope of base case ░░░░░░░░ I think that given ░░░░░░░░ resolute Powell was in ░░░░░░░░ two day testimony to ░░░░░░░░ that we should certainly ░░░░░░░░ putting 6 into a ░░░░░░░░ case scenario at this ░░░░░░░░ especially if we are ░░░░░░░░ to be seeing a ░░░░░░░░ percentage point hike March ░░░░░░░░ because the window is ░░░░░░░░ still open for there ░░░░░░░░ be further cuts into ░░░░░░░░ and the summer David ░░░░░░░░ another complication to the ░░░░░░░░ s story and this ░░░░░░░░ a story that caught ░░░░░░░░ markets by surprise these ░░░░░░░░ 12 hours or so ░░░░░░░░ what is happening with ░░░░░░░░ Valley Valley bank Do ░░░░░░░░ have a take on ░░░░░░░░ And if you do ░░░░░░░░ selloff we are seeing ░░░░░░░░ now in markets do ░░░░░░░░ think that is warranted ░░░░░░░░ there proper systemic risk ░░░░░░░░ we do not know ░░░░░░░░ right now So this ░░░░░░░░ the first moment where ░░░░░░░░ are rounding the one ░░░░░░░░ anniversary of the Fed ░░░░░░░░ its tightening campaign Silicon ░░░░░░░░ cited higher for longer ░░░░░░░░ terms of white it ░░░░░░░░ in distress and the ░░░░░░░░ as begun asking two ░░░░░░░░ Will there be a ░░░░░░░░ knight And what bank ░░░░░░░░ be next We have ░░░░░░░░ the largest move in ░░░░░░░░ since October small and ░░░░░░░░ banks coming under attack ░░░░░░░░ people are beginning to ░░░░░░░░ how many banks are ░░░░░░░░ there with similar levels ░░░░░░░░ losses that they are ░░░░░░░░ on that they cannot ░░░░░░░░ such that the fifth ░░░░░░░░ see or another regulatory ░░░░░░░░ could easily broker a ░░░░░░░░ between a weaker bank ░░░░░░░░ a stronger bank 15 ░░░░░░░░ out of a 91 ░░░░░░░░ portfolio out of Silicon ░░░░░░░░ bank This could be ░░░░░░░░ tame example There are ░░░░░░░░ other banks out there ░░░░░░░░ they are losing deposits ░░░░░░░░ money market funds paying ░░░░░░░░ of 5 That is ░░░░░░░░ additional pressure putting additional ░░░░░░░░ on the small to ░░░░░░░░ banking sector Is there ░░░░░░░░ right now David that ░░░░░░░░ a very good point ░░░░░░░░ story we are talking ░░░░░░░░ now is contrary to ░░░░░░░░ risk of sentiment Msci ░░░░░░░░ going into the open ░░░░░░░░ minutes away as a ░░░░░░░░ all of the gains ░░░░░░░░ 2023 Does the Fed ░░░░░░░░ to does the banking ░░░░░░░░ force the Fed to ░░░░░░░░ more cautious right now ░░░░░░░░ terms of their hawkishness ░░░░░░░░ rates is good for ░░░░░░░░ until it is not ░░░░░░░░ point That is correct ░░░░░░░░ fed officials have been ░░░░░░░░ about the lack of ░░░░░░░░ and theory lag effect ░░░░░░░░ theory int heory There ░░░░░░░░ certain things that will ░░░░░░░░ the Fed to be ░░░░░░░░ hawkish if there are ░░░░░░░░ things that look like ░░░░░░░░ will break in the ░░░░░░░░ system and you have ░░░░░░░░ of the population living ░░░░░░░░ banks with rising jobless ░░░░░░░░ as of this morning ░░░░░░░░ surprise data When you ░░░░░░░░ these two things you ░░░░░░░░ to say the banking ░░░░░░░░ is at risk the ░░░░░░░░ economy is at risk ░░░░░░░░ will be difficult to ░░░░░░░░ a hard line if ░░░░░░░░ are fed officials and ░░░░░░░░ it started with silver ░░░░░░░░ but it did not ░░░░░░░░ long to bleed into ░░░░░░░░ bank That is something ░░░░░░░░ the Fed must heed ░░░░░░░░ signals David as always ░░░░░░░░ pleasure to have you ░░░░░░░░ the show Daniel DiMartino ░░░░░░░░ We talked about msci ░░░░░░░░ now flat for the ░░░░░░░░ Kaisa 32 in premarket ░░░░░░░░