Let s get to ░░░░░░░░ guest George Ball German ░░░░░░░░ Morris Harris George earnings ░░░░░░░░ are coming down interest ░░░░░░░░ are still going up ░░░░░░░░ is pretty sticky margins ░░░░░░░░ getting hit doesn t ░░░░░░░░ like a very good ░░░░░░░░ for risk assets Your ░░░░░░░░ on what to do ░░░░░░░░ History I think is ░░░░░░░░ History is not product ░░░░░░░░ our predictive I m ░░░░░░░░ There s a great ░░░░░░░░ countries on I was ░░░░░░░░ for love and all ░░░░░░░░ wrong places and I ░░░░░░░░ this very true of ░░░░░░░░ markets today there s ░░░░░░░░ obsession a singular obsession ░░░░░░░░ guessing about the Fed ░░░░░░░░ do next level will ░░░░░░░░ it Up What extent ░░░░░░░░ a do It Today ░░░░░░░░ rally I think was ░░░░░░░░ by a non belief ░░░░░░░░ really an acceptance that ░░░░░░░░ Fed is gonna keep ░░░░░░░░ high for a long ░░░░░░░░ It s gonna raise ░░░░░░░░ in March and may ░░░░░░░░ one more time after ░░░░░░░░ but a rates are ░░░░░░░░ to go down for ░░░░░░░░ long long time and ░░░░░░░░ Typically that s all ░░░░░░░░ right Businesses can deal ░░░░░░░░ that and I think ░░░░░░░░ the boss debt fueled ░░░░░░░░ hundred point rally today ░░░░░░░░ basically investor say all ░░░░░░░░ We know what it ░░░░░░░░ gonna be like for ░░░░░░░░ next few years in ░░░░░░░░ of monetary policy We ░░░░░░░░ live at that and ░░░░░░░░ boleyn state the risk ░░░░░░░░ instinct to Took over ░░░░░░░░ tell me something here ░░░░░░░░ mean does it mean ░░░░░░░░ we just going back ░░░░░░░░ the old normal and ░░░░░░░░ rates said Let s ░░░░░░░░ five percent of thereabouts ░░░░░░░░ you know the thing ░░░░░░░░ by going over to ░░░░░░░░ now perhaps gets in ░░░░░░░░ impacts of a few ░░░░░░░░ Time start seeing it ░░░░░░░░ in the sense that ░░░░░░░░ below the tides going ░░░░░░░░ and going to find ░░░░░░░░ who s make it ░░░░░░░░ ve you find out ░░░░░░░░ the scum is when ░░░░░░░░ when the palms is ░░░░░░░░ and that is going ░░░░░░░░ happen looking back by ░░░░░░░░ way to the extreme ░░░░░░░░ back in the vault ░░░░░░░░ era That s exactly ░░░░░░░░ took place now today ░░░░░░░░ You have fenn rates ░░░░░░░░ at a level or ░░░░░░░░ Inflation is really coming ░░░░░░░░ very rapidly service Wage ░░░░░░░░ takes much longer to ░░░░░░░░ the expectations trail on ░░░░░░░░ much much longer but ░░░░░░░░ think the Fed sees ░░░░░░░░ if they keep things ░░░░░░░░ they are plus the ░░░░░░░░ or possibly three increases ░░░░░░░░ expects that inflation will ░░░░░░░░ back down to afford ░░░░░░░░ their two percent go ░░░░░░░░ will be casualties along ░░░░░░░░ way little but yeah ░░░░░░░░ say let s talk ░░░░░░░░ the casualties and possibly ░░░░░░░░ back in two thousand ░░░░░░░░ four We had that ░░░░░░░░ when the Fed raised ░░░░░░░░ rates of form and ░░░░░░░░ consecutive meetings of 20 ░░░░░░░░ basis points It took ░░░░░░░░ up to five and ░░░░░░░░ quarter percent and finished ░░░░░░░░ two thousand and six ░░░░░░░░ one too long after ░░░░░░░░ the tide pulled out ░░░░░░░░ we saw what was ░░░░░░░░ in the housing market ░░░░░░░░ m not suggesting that ░░░░░░░░ s going to happen ░░░░░░░░ or that will get ░░░░░░░░ banking crisis But can ░░░░░░░░ speculate or think about ░░░░░░░░ maybe will be exposed ░░░░░░░░ these very high levels ░░░░░░░░ interest rates in a ░░░░░░░░ quick period of time ░░░░░░░░ I wake up at ░░░░░░░░ o clock in the ░░░░░░░░ like like every a ░░░░░░░░ aged or elderly male ░░░░░░░░ I worry and you ░░░░░░░░ the store thunder by ░░░░░░░░ The housing market and ░░░░░░░░ lenders to to the ░░░░░░░░ market could be in ░░░░░░░░ a very difficult position ░░░░░░░░ is the possibility although ░░░░░░░░ think it s fairly ░░░░░░░░ that short term commercial ░░░░░░░░ could could freeze up ░░░░░░░░ and that that for ░░░░░░░░ highly leverage companies and ░░░░░░░░ the high yield risk ░░░░░░░░ of companies could could ░░░░░░░░ catastrophic And I think ░░░░░░░░ arai I t and ░░░░░░░░ e I t like ░░░░░░░░ that are that are ░░░░░░░░ to the office market ░░░░░░░░ not going back to ░░░░░░░░ office in any great ░░░░░░░░ anytime soon there will ░░░░░░░░ excess space and you ░░░░░░░░ going to see some ░░░░░░░░ quite possibly in that ░░░░░░░░ as well Georgy you ░░░░░░░░ buns Once get the ░░░░░░░░ after a long pause ░░░░░░░░ know I haven t ░░░░░░░░ bonds gentlemen once again ░░░░░░░░ bonds Obviously it s ░░░░░░░░ s It s very ░░░░░░░░ a form of a ░░░░░░░░ five percent or point ░░░░░░░░ percent yield on to ░░░░░░░░ a treasury is a ░░░░░░░░ warm comfortable up like ░░░░░░░░ and if you just ░░░░░░░░ under that blanket for ░░░░░░░░ years you re going ░░░░░░░░ be all right bonds ░░░░░░░░ short duration bonds I ░░░░░░░░ have a great deal ░░░░░░░░ the lower right now ░░░░░░░░ to almost anything else ░░░░░░░░ compared to gearbox are ░░░░░░░░ George Thank you So ░░░░░░░░ for joining us George ░░░░░░░░ sherman Sanders Morris Harris ░░░░░░░░ his live here on ░░░░░░░░ daybreak, Asia