We have a China ░░░░░░░░ the Seattle blanc and ░░░░░░░░ wealth hundred joining us ░░░░░░░░ Palm Beach with his ░░░░░░░░ a Robin good to ░░░░░░░░ you Thank you very ░░░░░░░░ free time I want ░░░░░░░░ understand whether or not ░░░░░░░░ market could be in ░░░░░░░░ a lead Quarter arise ░░░░░░░░ India or rally so ░░░░░░░░ speak because Now of ░░░░░░░░ The last couple of ░░░░░░░░ have been waiting for ░░░░░░░░ markets a little cautious ░░░░░░░░ the market This where ░░░░░░░░ started the week but ░░░░░░░░ s no coward to ░░░░░░░░ week Essentially we re ░░░░░░░░ is more information on ░░░░░░░░ employment picture in the ░░░░░░░░ States tomorrow But when ░░░░░░░░ started the week I ░░░░░░░░ actors and traders were ░░░░░░░░ of the Federal Reserve ░░░░░░░░ relates to a pause ░░░░░░░░ pivot that obviously didn ░░░░░░░░ happen and deflated the ░░░░░░░░ two days of trading ░░░░░░░░ a result of that ░░░░░░░░ tomorrow all eyes especially ░░░░░░░░ Federal Reserve are on ░░░░░░░░ data report That s ░░░░░░░░ to come out and ░░░░░░░░ ultimately the cp I ░░░░░░░░ that comes out neck ░░░░░░░░ We also have next ░░░░░░░░ are are elections in ░░░░░░░░ we re gonna get ░░░░░░░░ certainty one way or ░░░░░░░░ but that s actually ░░░░░░░░ for for the opportunity ░░░░░░░░ the equity markets and ░░░░░░░░ you also have buybacks ░░░░░░░░ kick in after hurting ░░░░░░░░ So it s a ░░░░░░░░ bag there s a ░░░░░░░░ I think it feels ░░░░░░░░ the market wants to ░░░░░░░░ the Fed said push ░░░░░░░░ market lower Yeah nowadays ░░░░░░░░ spoke about mittens going ░░░░░░░░ next Mika and even ░░░░░░░░ about how a good ░░░░░░░░ has typically been comfort ░░░░░░░░ the markets giving that ░░░░░░░░ can build a case ░░░░░░░░ a year in rally ░░░░░░░░ when you get to ░░░░░░░░ term cycle if you ░░░░░░░░ at the the numbers ░░░░░░░░ the us about Hunter ░░░░░░░░ s always a great ░░░░░░░░ to actually be invested ░░░░░░░░ speaking markets actually have ░░░░░░░░ relief rally as result ░░░░░░░░ that so we could ░░░░░░░░ that set up again ░░░░░░░░ lot is dad a ░░░░░░░░ even though the Fed ░░░░░░░░ t say that ultimately ░░░░░░░░ s where we where ░░░░░░░░ we we re setting ░░░░░░░░ right now as relates ░░░░░░░░ the job numbers the ░░░░░░░░ number comes in that ░░░░░░░░ economy still strong a ░░░░░░░░ just sets in two ░░░░░░░░ All the questions does ░░░░░░░░ Fed raise If so ░░░░░░░░ much is it Fifty ░░░░░░░░ t Seventy five and ░░░░░░░░ the guessing game starts ░░░░░░░░ again and then the ░░░░░░░░ market specifically say technology ░░░░░░░░ So all things considered ░░░░░░░░ know you ve got ░░░░░░░░ buybacks let s say ░░░░░░░░ billion a day Goldman ░░░░░░░░ billion a week have ░░░░░░░░ wanna swing it in ░░░░░░░░ of up until the ░░░░░░░░ of key for you ░░░░░░░░ got a tax loss ░░░░░░░░ you ve got the ░░░░░░░░ of any kind of ░░░░░░░░ upside coming through from ░░░░░░░░ mid term elections You ░░░░░░░░ also got the prospect ░░░░░░░░ the 10 you paper ░░░░░░░░ continue to try clients ░░░░░░░░ do continue to say ░░░░░░░░ front run features just ░░░░░░░░ up that I believe ░░░░░░░░ a five point one ░░░░░░░░ percent now full may ░░░░░░░░ what what it s ░░░░░░░░ s your base Case ░░░░░░░░ We going to see ░░░░░░░░ playing through into 20 ░░░░░░░░ three which is to ░░░░░░░░ fair at an atheist ░░░░░░░░ have to 30 two ░░░░░░░░ is highly unlikely all ░░░░░░░░ They going to be ░░░░░░░░ any thing that any ░░░░░░░░ of catalyst that can ░░░░░░░░ that upside that 10 ░░░░░░░░ asking about alien So ░░░░░░░░ s just look at ░░░░░░░░ earnings per share right ░░░░░░░░ markets are below the ░░░░░░░░ in or so the ░░░░░░░░ of to 30 on ░░░░░░░░ us compared to 30 ░░░░░░░░ to many as we ░░░░░░░░ at 20 twenty three ░░░░░░░░ hasn t p earnings ░░░░░░░░ being said that s ░░░░░░░░ the markets trying to ░░░░░░░░ in there trying to ░░░░░░░░ what the feds going ░░░░░░░░ do there are trying ░░░░░░░░ factor in with the ░░░░░░░░ eyes looks like they ░░░░░░░░ also trying to factor ░░░░░░░░ what earnings look like ░░░░░░░░ we look at this ░░░░░░░░ earnings report right now ░░░░░░░░ re below the five ░░░░░░░░ average as relates to ░░░░░░░░ earnings that are being ░░░░░░░░ by the and five ░░░░░░░░ but they re not ░░░░░░░░ and that sort of ░░░░░░░░ quandary that everyone in ░░░░░░░░ of the investing class ░░░░░░░░ wondering So the question ░░░░░░░░ we get to the ░░░░░░░░ quarter next year do ░░░░░░░░ actually fall off a ░░░░░░░░ Do they go down ░░░░░░░░ two 30 three to ░░░░░░░░ hundred which would put ░░░░░░░░ p in There are ░░░░░░░░ thousand range of 30 ░░░░░░░░ hundred it s entirely ░░░░░░░░ that the price of ░░░░░░░░ index it s that ░░░░░░░░ not the earnings So ░░░░░░░░ s very important because ░░░░░░░░ s about how are ░░░░░░░░ positioning of it what ░░░░░░░░ you ll only see ░░░░░░░░ needs to be positioning ░░░░░░░░ that now yeah yeah ░░░░░░░░ so in the short ░░░░░░░░ So as example we ░░░░░░░░ use volatility as an ░░░░░░░░ If you make the ░░░░░░░░ money can a bear ░░░░░░░░ you just don t ░░░░░░░░ so more more importantly ░░░░░░░░ s important to not ░░░░░░░░ short term or have ░░░░░░░░ short term bias impact ░░░░░░░░ future retirement so we ░░░░░░░░ we re looking at ░░░░░░░░ taking advantage of opportunities ░░░░░░░░ in the cash It ░░░░░░░░ not cash It s ░░░░░░░░ bills right now that ░░░░░░░░ four percent and we ░░░░░░░░ hiding out but we ░░░░░░░░ also taking advantage of ░░░░░░░░ that are quality teams ░░░░░░░░ will actually make it ░░░░░░░░ a recession which we ░░░░░░░░ we could see recession ░░░░░░░░ 20 three 20 twenty ░░░░░░░░ as well as the ░░░░░░░░ maybe to bottom in ░░░░░░░░ first quarter of 20 ░░░░░░░░ three But at the ░░░░░░░░ of the day the ░░░░░░░░ Reserve s closer to ░░░░░░░░ end of tightening than ░░░░░░░░ the beginning of in ░░░░░░░░ accelerated pace they ve ░░░░░░░░ this year is head ░░░░░░░░ proportions Right Robin I ░░░░░░░░ also understand what s ░░░░░░░░ to the 16 phony ░░░░░░░░ for that fight between ░░░░░░░░ is when it s ░░░░░░░░ So earlier this year ░░░░░░░░ the middle of summer ░░░░░░░░ sixty forty had the ░░░░░░░░ worst performance since 19 ░░░░░░░░ one right now it ░░░░░░░░ about where two thousand ░░░░░░░░ eight lies in terms ░░░░░░░░ a total return portfolio ░░░░░░░░ actually you re thinking ░░░░░░░░ re seeing knock on ░░░░░░░░ globally because even some ░░░░░░░░ the tensions in Europe ░░░░░░░░ the U K where ░░░░░░░░ sixty forty portfolio bonds ░░░░░░░░ in stocks or not ░░░░░░░░ positively correlated and they ░░░░░░░░ are so as way ░░░░░░░░ alternatives in the asset ░░░░░░░░ and essentially start paying ░░░░░░░░ your fixed income We ░░░░░░░░ application manager for our ░░░░░░░░ we ve added alternatives ░░░░░░░░ ve added some hedges ░░░░░░░░ at the end of ░░░░░░░░ day at the beginning ░░░░░░░░ this year to now ░░░░░░░░ s always seems to ░░░░░░░░ never enough because The ░░░░░░░░ s been down this ░░░░░░░░ Everything has been telling ░░░░░░░░ it down for how ░░░░░░░░ you think about that ░░░░░░░░ mean yes okay can ░░░░░░░░ some we need the ░░░░░░░░ and they could be ░░░░░░░░ for the markets around ░░░░░░░░ and cat and they ░░░░░░░░ also equally I don ░░░░░░░░ know which mean there ░░░░░░░░ a problem work on ░░░░░░░░ front for the markets ░░░░░░░░ stay on to just ░░░░░░░░ along these levels Far ░░░░░░░░ stops Well look no ░░░░░░░░ can call the bottom ░░░░░░░░ we re going to ░░░░░░░░ to call the bottom ░░░░░░░░ re going to try ░░░░░░░░ catch the bottom but ░░░░░░░░ re going to you ░░░░░░░░ strategies that we do ░░░░░░░░ which is the dollar ░░░░░░░░ averaging take advantage of ░░░░░░░░ we re sitting around ░░░░░░░░ competition the year from ░░░░░░░░ we re gonna be ░░░░░░░░ at some great opportunities ░░░░░░░░ have been missed If ░░░░░░░░ don t start taking ░░░░░░░░ advantage them by being ░░░░░░░░ and take them as ░░░░░░░░ come with quality businesses ░░░░░░░░ quality opportunities again but ░░░░░░░░ way Warren Buffett been ░░░░░░░░ up the truck this ░░░░░░░░ fifty seven billion dollars ░░░░░░░░ terms of capital he ░░░░░░░░ to work which is ░░░░░░░░ than the greatest but ░░░░░░░░ great financial crisis two ░░░░░░░░ and eight two thousand ░░░░░░░░ combined So he sees ░░░░░░░░ right now I think ░░░░░░░░ went to great investors ░░░░░░░░ Warren Buffett sees value ░░░░░░░░ now might not be ░░░░░░░░ Bad time to start ░░░░░░░░ cost averaging into some ░░░░░░░░ again I don t ░░░░░░░░ The bottom is where ░░░░░░░░ is but I do ░░░░░░░░ that when it happens ░░░░░░░░ ll happen very quickly ░░░░░░░░ then we can see ░░░░░░░░ return to sort of ░░░░░░░░ bull market in all ░░░░░░░░ markets End And we ░░░░░░░░ talk about some of ░░░░░░░░ ideas in one is ░░░░░░░░ intrinsically linked with the ░░░░░░░░ Warren Buffett we the ░░░░░░░░ these breaks I stayed ░░░░░░░░ us That s rubbish ░░░░░░░░ street signs We ve ░░░░░░░░ back into showed minutes ░░░░░░░░ ll back on the ░░░░░░░░ and went back with ░░░░░░░░ shine blink Donkeys thing ░░░░░░░░ shine management joining us ░░░░░░░░ time to out before ░░░░░░░░ break We were talking ░░░░░░░░ Warren Buffett and some ░░░░░░░░ the investments that he ░░░░░░░░ now but we didn ░░░░░░░░ let the audience that ░░░░░░░░ one and I was ░░░░░░░░ to occidental petroleum That ░░░░░░░░ a company that you ░░░░░░░░ like now in terms ░░░░░░░░ the oil industry moving ░░░░░░░░ They do you think ░░░░░░░░ way at levels that ░░░░░░░░ the prices a to ░░░░░░░░ or do you think ░░░░░░░░ through the upside Because ░░░░░░░░ reason I m asking ░░░░░░░░ see someone buys these ░░░░░░░░ and they buying it ░░░░░░░░ the dividend income or ░░░░░░░░ buying it with the ░░░░░░░░ that they could potentially ░░░░░░░░ kept gain lost that ░░░░░░░░ same time getting that ░░░░░░░░ yield So occidental petroleum ░░░░░░░░ specifically for the viewers ░░░░░░░░ home If if they ░░░░░░░░ t know it became ░░░░░░░░ top 10 holding closely ░░░░░░░░ to a top five ░░░░░░░░ for Warren Buffett and ░░░░░░░░ Berkshire hathaway investment earlier ░░░░░░░░ year again as I ░░░░░░░░ before he s backing ░░░░░░░░ the truck effect Energy ░░░░░░░░ if it s not ░░░░░░░░ portfolio now it it ░░░░░░░░ should find it allegation ░░░░░░░░ you okay energy respect ░░░░░░░░ the cpu five hundred ░░░░░░░░ contribution is only like ░░░░░░░░ percent relative to let ░░░░░░░░ say technology which is ░░░░░░░░ to 30 thirty eight ░░░░░░░░ depending upon how you ░░░░░░░░ at it So there ░░░░░░░░ a major imbalance in ░░░░░░░░ of everyone s portfolio ░░░░░░░░ the us to give ░░░░░░░░ hundred index So we ░░░░░░░░ to do take the ░░░░░░░░ to rebalance and if ░░░░░░░░ don t have energy ░░░░░░░░ to it now you ░░░░░░░░ question to me was ░░░░░░░░ listen Energy has had ░░░░░░░░ run year to date ░░░░░░░░ across the board Do ░░░░░░░░ get in now and ░░░░░░░░ if so how do ░░░░░░░░ do So So we ░░░░░░░░ we re doing is ░░░░░░░░ dollar cost averaging in ░░░░░░░░ I said before and ░░░░░░░░ re scaling and because ░░░░░░░░ believe this is not ░░░░░░░░ short term transition Long ░░░░░░░░ if you seen any ░░░░░░░░ of transition from a ░░░░░░░░ from a bear market ░░░░░░░░ a bull market The ░░░░░░░░ changes out of a ░░░░░░░░ market and so technology ░░░░░░░░ the last leader in ░░░░░░░░ we believe the energy ░░░░░░░░ maybe industrials could be ░░░░░░░░ leader We re seeing ░░░░░░░░ actually perform very well ░░░░░░░░ well that with occidental ░░░░░░░░ they don t pay ░░░░░░░░ of a dividend but ░░░░░░░░ they re their they ░░░░░░░░ sector position they re ░░░░░░░░ growth even on the ░░░░░░░░ side so again earnings ░░░░░░░░ week If you see ░░░░░░░░ pullback based upon basically ░░░░░░░░ market pulling back or ░░░░░░░░ earnings expectations being the ░░░░░░░░ isn t as high ░░░░░░░░ it should be as ░░░░░░░░ opportunity to that s ░░░░░░░░ good entry point to ░░░░░░░░ occidental petroleum to your ░░░░░░░░ Right a wells fargo ░░░░░░░░ that is that the ░░░░░░░░ the idea behind it ░░░░░░░░ to do land the ░░░░░░░░ that they focused on ░░░░░░░░ and have a strong ░░░░░░░░ don t look Actually ░░░░░░░░ two trillion dollar business ░░░░░░░░ hasn t been able ░░░░░░░░ get out of its ░░░░░░░░ for two decades brought ░░░░░░░░ a new leadership team ░░░░░░░░ 20 19 In fact ░░░░░░░░ brought in 90 executives ░░░░░░░░ outside the company because ░░░░░░░░ knew they had to ░░░░░░░░ the culture internally That ░░░░░░░░ said you know with ░░░░░░░░ opportunity with that sketch ░░░░░░░░ and scale and the ░░░░░░░░ leadership team If you ░░░░░░░░ at the start your ░░░░░░░░ performance is out pasting ░░░░░░░░ of the other financials ░░░░░░░░ it s class so ░░░░░░░░ the net interest margin ░░░░░░░░ the and the interest ░░░░░░░░ the banks in the ░░░░░░░░ saved in the opportunity ░░░░░░░░ the cash flow as ░░░░░░░░ as the opportunity for ░░░░░░░░ savings Internally and being ░░░░░░░░ sharp management team Strong ░░░░░░░░ on an go forward ░░░░░░░░ even in a potential ░░░░░░░░ and 20 twenty three ░░░░░░░░ actually has tremendous value ░░░░░░░░ about a 10 p ░░░░░░░░ to earnings ratio on ░░░░░░░░ future As with the ░░░░░░░░ there and then you ░░░░░░░░ also gonna get paid ░░░░░░░░ two and half percent ░░░░░░░░ imminent I don t ░░░░░░░░ to sign up Costco ░░░░░░░░ costs goes the shine ░░░░░░░░ wheatley lira avid consumers ░░░░░░░░ Costco not only at ░░░░░░░░ big the deal that ░░░░░░░░ get at the gas ░░░░░░░░ right but also inside ░░░░░░░░ discount retailer next year ░░░░░░░░ re going to eat ░░░░░░░░ re going to increase ░░░░░░░░ membership fee But more ░░░░░░░░ here s the bottom ░░░░░░░░ Costco is there to ░░░░░░░░ a price consumer on ░░░░░░░░ consumer side right that ░░░░░░░░ their name a in ░░░░░░░░ in the in the ░░░░░░░░ the company where When ░░░░░░░░ are in a recession ░░░░░░░░ want them to help ░░░░░░░░ put pressure on all ░░░░░░░░ their internal suppliers and ░░░░░░░░ we know we re ░░░░░░░░ get the best deal ░░░░░░░░ they had the best ░░░░░░░░ on the consumer of ░░░░░░░░ we re going to ░░░░░░░░ absorb the higher prices ░░░░░░░░ are passed on ordinary ░░░░░░░░ the higher prices Low ░░░░░░░░ goes on your side ░░░░░░░░ ultimately if you dollar ░░░░░░░░ averaging to Costco and ░░░░░░░░ a year three years ░░░░░░░░ years from now you ░░░░░░░░ can be shopping at ░░░░░░░░ for free as we ░░░░░░░░ at the shine household ░░░░░░░░ of the appreciation the ░░░░░░░░ If you have a ░░░░░░░░ term view At and ░░░░░░░░ are you avoiding rubber ░░░░░░░░ we we talk about ░░░░░░░░ These are all very ░░░░░░░░ in don t necessarily ░░░░░░░░ to say big take ░░░░░░░░ basically covered that off ░░░░░░░░ it comes to you ░░░░░░░░ that they not gonna ░░░░░░░░ delayed Moving up in ░░░░░░░░ there anything in particular ░░░░░░░░ you d be avoiding ░░░░░░░░ then say for example ░░░░░░░░ big names So besides ░░░░░░░░ Tech I think right ░░░░░░░░ it s the the ░░░░░░░░ sort of secular cyclicals ░░░░░░░░ the internet names that ░░░░░░░░ you know they were ░░░░░░░░ pandemic Darlings we ve ░░░░░░░░ invested in them for ░░░░░░░░ clients we ve avoided ░░░░░░░░ we don t worry ░░░░░░░░ those particular games being ░░░░░░░░ so far down But ░░░░░░░░ the end The day ░░░░░░░░ is a great opportunity ░░░░░░░░ locate your portfolio rebalancing ░░░░░░░░ advantage of the tax ░░░░░░░░ selling and therefore you ░░░░░░░░ use that for you ░░░░░░░░ this year her future ░░░░░░░░ but add some energy ░░░░░░░░ he said before and ░░░░░░░░ some opportunities like let ░░░░░░░░ say that financial services ░░░░░░░░ or even Costco as ░░░░░░░░ talk frankly I m ░░░░░░░░ the stock doc organization ░░░░░░░░ stopped on Think that ░░░░░░░░ going on so give ░░░░░░░░ One more name that ░░░░░░░░ like and the added ░░░░░░░░ the portfolio at are ░░░░░░░░ recommended to plant recently ░░░░░░░░ bonds are sexy again ░░░░░░░░ you look at the ░░░░░░░░ market in the class ░░░░░░░░ the tables or even ░░░░░░░░ six months you re ░░░░░░░░ over four percent so ░░░░░░░░ get paid while you ░░░░░░░░ in right now If ░░░░░░░░ Federal Reserve continues on ░░░░░░░░ pace we just roll ░░░░░░░░ and roll into higher ░░░░░░░░ sort of the us ░░░░░░░░ and it s a ░░░░░░░░ safe space to be ░░░░░░░░ and it s a ░░░░░░░░ spot just to hang ░░░░░░░░ So I have said ░░░░░░░░ in a while we ░░░░░░░░ had cash in the ░░░░░░░░ sheet for clients for ░░░░░░░░ some time highs and ░░░░░░░░ rob why that you ░░░░░░░░ it We said we ░░░░░░░░ been waiting for the ░░░░░░░░ Reserve to get to ░░░░░░░░ level where it s ░░░░░░░░ and now is see ░░░░░░░░ s as attractive place ░░░░░░░░ the short end of ░░░░░░░░ yield curve to hide ░░░░░░░░ as the market and ░░░░░░░░ economy sort of figures ░░░░░░░░ out gleefully yeah Team ░░░░░░░░ been going at full ░░░░░░░░ plus that s not ░░░░░░░░ at 90 nine nine ░░░░░░░░ on joining us in ░░░░░░░░ us out perspective edge ░░░░░░░░ enjoy having you on ░░░░░░░░ show that thank you ░░░░░░░░ is fantastic