Sec. Yellen: Two Negative Quarters of Growth Is ‘Not the Technical Definition’ of a Recession

Todd Help us play ░░░░░░░░ economist this week There ░░░░░░░░ a ton of data ░░░░░░░░ out this week It ░░░░░░░░ probably a fun week ░░░░░░░░ an economist because we ░░░░░░░░ going to have consumer ░░░░░░░░ survey the second quarter ░░░░░░░░ numbers We ve got ░░░░░░░░ inflation numbers for June ░░░░░░░░ is the indicator What ░░░░░░░░ the number you re ░░░░░░░░ focused on that will ░░░░░░░░ you a better indication ░░░░░░░░ where this economy is ░░░░░░░░ Yellen Well I look ░░░░░░░░ all the data And ░░░░░░░░ will be closely watched ░░░░░░░░ common definition of recession ░░░░░░░░ two negative quarters of ░░░░░░░░ growth or at least ░░░░░░░░ s something that s ░░░░░░░░ true in past recessions ░░░░░░░░ we ve seen that ░░░░░░░░ has usually been a ░░░░░░░░ And many economists expect ░░░░░░░░ quarter GDP to be ░░░░░░░░ First quarter GDP was ░░░░░░░░ So we could see ░░░░░░░░ happen And that will ░░░░░░░░ closely watched But I ░░░░░░░░ want to emphasize What ░░░░░░░░ recession really means is ░░░░░░░░ broad based contraction in ░░░░░░░░ economy And even if ░░░░░░░░ number is negative we ░░░░░░░░ not in a recession ░░░░░░░░ And I would you ░░░░░░░░ warn that we should ░░░░░░░░ not characterizing that as ░░░░░░░░ recession Todd I understand ░░░░░░░░ but you re splitting ░░░░░░░░ I mean if the ░░░░░░░░ definition is two quarters ░░░░░░░░ contraction you re saying ░░░░░░░░ s not a recession ░░░░░░░░ That s not the ░░░░░░░░ Todd No Yellen That ░░░░░░░░ not the technical definition ░░░░░░░░ s an organization called ░░░░░░░░ National Bureau of Economic ░░░░░░░░ that looks at a ░░░░░░░░ range of data in ░░░░░░░░ whether or not there ░░░░░░░░ a recession And most ░░░░░░░░ the data that they ░░░░░░░░ at right now continues ░░░░░░░░ be strong I would ░░░░░░░░ amazed if the NBER ░░░░░░░░ declare this period to ░░░░░░░░ a recession even if ░░░░░░░░ happens to have two ░░░░░░░░ of negative growth We ░░░░░░░░ got a very strong ░░░░░░░░ market When you re ░░░░░░░░ almost 400 000 jobs ░░░░░░░░ month that is not ░░░░░░░░ recession Todd Janet Yellen ░░░░░░░░ Secretary of Treasury and ░░░░░░░░ the former chair of ░░░░░░░░ Federal Reserve Always appreciate ░░░░░░░░ you on and getting ░░░░░░░░ perspective. Thank you.”