RUSH TRANSCRIPT All right ░░░░░░░░ more insight on early ░░░░░░░░ trading in what driving ░░░░░░░░ markets Robert shine chief ░░░░░░░░ officer at linking shine ░░░░░░░░ management joining us now ░░░░░░░░ for being here on ░░░░░░░░ Monday Robert we saw ░░░░░░░░ another losing week on ░░░░░░░░ Street last week as ░░░░░░░░ reacted to a batch ░░░░░░░░ economic data What are ░░░░░░░░ expecting this week in ░░░░░░░░ of market volatility Well ░░░░░░░░ you for having me ░░░░░░░░ week it s all ░░░░░░░░ on the heels of ░░░░░░░░ and today we have ░░░░░░░░ earnings that seem to ░░░░░░░░ it a market lifts ░░░░░░░░ the but keep in ░░░░░░░░ We re still in ░░░░░░░░ bear market So the ░░░░░░░░ itself is not how ░░░░░░░░ open even though we ░░░░░░░░ a great opening this ░░░░░░░░ It s how you ░░░░░░░░ towards pending a trade ░░░░░░░░ today got some good ░░░░░░░░ news from the big ░░░░░░░░ that s why we ░░░░░░░░ off to the races ░░░░░░░░ Yeah it s all ░░░░░░░░ the open but also ░░░░░░░░ closings as you mention ░░░░░░░░ sir urging over 9 ░░░░░░░░ June but we ve ░░░░░░░░ some recent retail sales ░░░░░░░░ showing spending remains strong ░░░░░░░░ does the stronger than ░░░░░░░░ retail data kind of ░░░░░░░░ some of those fears ░░░░░░░░ a more aggressive that ░░░░░░░░ the next meeting we ░░░░░░░░ getting some word we ░░░░░░░░ going to get a ░░░░░░░░ basis point rate hike ░░░░░░░░ has been the most ░░░░░░░░ thus far Yes so ░░░░░░░░ through the bank earnings ░░░░░░░░ of the things that ░░░░░░░░ re looking at is ░░░░░░░░ well the consumer is ░░░░░░░░ up and according to ░░░░░░░░ these the survey data ░░░░░░░░ s what it s ░░░░░░░░ to push through is ░░░░░░░░ as the consumer is ░░░░░░░░ up rather strong as ░░░░░░░░ which is providing up ░░░░░░░░ for police cover for ░░░░░░░░ Federal Reserve to continue ░░░░░░░░ March for higher rates ░░░░░░░░ we believe that we ░░░░░░░░ going to see 75 ░░░░░░░░ points This you know ░░░░░░░░ next rate hike from ░░░░░░░░ Federal Reserve as well ░░░░░░░░ a obviously we ve ░░░░░░░░ a month off in ░░░░░░░░ for the Fed to ░░░░░░░░ sit down and see ░░░░░░░░ and see but ultimately ░░░░░░░░ you look at the ░░░░░░░░ you know going back ░░░░░░░░ 1970 for the last ░░░░░░░░ tightening cycles The Federal ░░░░░░░░ they don t stop ░░░░░░░░ Still the Fed funds ░░░░░░░░ as well the CPI ░░░░░░░░ and keep in mind ░░░░░░░░ CPI rate right now ░░░░░░░░ you just indicated is ░░░░░░░░ 1 the Fed funds ░░░░░░░░ right now is one ░░░░░░░░ 8 so there s ░░░░░░░░ lot of work that ░░░░░░░░ to be done by ░░░░░░░░ Federal Reserve so they ░░░░░░░░ t have the opportunity ░░░░░░░░ push pause they have ░░░░░░░░ continue raising interest rates ░░░░░░░░ though we might be ░░░░░░░░ the you know there ░░░░░░░░ talk of a recession ░░░░░░░░ 2023 You mentioned they ░░░░░░░░ t have the opportunity ░░░░░░░░ put to push posit ░░░░░░░░ point but there have ░░░░░░░░ the analysts on the ░░░░░░░░ who have said that ░░░░░░░░ is being way too ░░░░░░░░ this could push us ░░░░░░░░ recession territory especially as ░░░░░░░░ know there are so ░░░░░░░░ different factors tackling the ░░░░░░░░ at this point that ░░░░░░░░ outside of the Fed ░░░░░░░░ control and a lot ░░░░░░░░ these policies Take you ░░░░░░░░ it s him in ░░░░░░░░ instances about a year ░░░░░░░░ leak into the March ░░░░░░░░ how do you think ░░░░░░░░ that has been moving ░░░░░░░░ now do you think ░░░░░░░░ s the right pace ░░░░░░░░ top well inflation regardless ░░░░░░░░ what the act we ░░░░░░░░ do you think this ░░░░░░░░ the correct strategy that ░░░░░░░░ Fed should be deploying ░░░░░░░░ going more aggressive moving ░░░░░░░░ We re seeing especially ░░░░░░░░ and it is the ░░░░░░░░ itself globally is moving ░░░░░░░░ and faster rate the ░░░░░░░░ Reserve is slow and ░░░░░░░░ and so at the ░░░░░░░░ beginning they were behind ░░░░░░░░ curve clearly they called ░░░░░░░░ transitory and now we ░░░░░░░░ in the camp of ░░░░░░░░ least there are now ░░░░░░░░ to the realization that ░░░░░░░░ know there s a ░░░░░░░░ more stickiness with regards ░░░░░░░░ housing as well as ░░░░░░░░ and that s the ░░░░░░░░ is inflation is broad ░░░░░░░░ through the balance sheet ░░░░░░░░ consumers so inflation is ░░░░░░░░ to stay we re ░░░░░░░░ it all over from ░░░░░░░░ kitchen table to the ░░░░░░░░ and I think that ░░░░░░░░ key this week to ░░░░░░░░ attention to earnings What ░░░░░░░░ companies actually guide to ░░░░░░░░ guidance what they say ░░░░░░░░ corporations are still holding ░░░░░░░░ on the top line ░░░░░░░░ to the bottom line ░░░░░░░░ to be seen and ░░░░░░░░ they report in the ░░░░░░░░ big thing this week ░░░░░░░░ what we re paying ░░░░░░░░ to your bike is ░░░░░░░░ of management is housing ░░░░░░░░ so that was what ░░░░░░░░ Federal Reserve is trying ░░░░░░░░ ultimately slow down you ░░░░░░░░ they went out to ░░░░░░░░ stock and bond markets ░░░░░░░░ months ago by trying ░░░░░░░░ pump the brakes and ░░░░░░░░ obviously we ve seen ░░░░░░░░ trillion dollars You know ░░░░░░░░ out of the cryptocurrency ░░░░░░░░ And now housing a ░░░░░░░░ in the sights of ░░░░░░░░ Federal Reserve so housing ░░░░░░░░ this week as well ░░░░░░░░ corporate earnings and how ░░░░░░░░ they guide going forward ░░░░░░░░ going to be the ░░░░░░░░ ahead that we re ░░░░░░░░ to pay attention to ░░░░░░░░ think that s really ░░░░░░░░ advice for investors out ░░░░░░░░ especially as you mentioned ░░░░░░░░ beads on top and ░░░░░░░░ can look really good ░░░░░░░░ guidance moving forward is ░░░░░░░░ a lot should be ░░░░░░░░ and focusing on at ░░░░░░░░ point and speaking of ░░░░░░░░ we mentioned the last ░░░░░░░░ the bank earnings coming ░░░░░░░░ this morning Goldman Sachs ░░░░░░░░ of America I m ░░░░░░░░ if you can kind ░░░░░░░░ weigh in on your ░░░░░░░░ from both of these ░░░░░░░░ different results Goldman Sachs ░░░░░░░░ higher closing also up ░░░░░░░░ pre market at Bank ░░░░░░░░ America bit more mic ░░░░░░░░ what are you watching ░░░░░░░░ the sector Yeah and ░░░░░░░░ banking sector you re ░░░░░░░░ a relief and you ░░░░░░░░ to continue to watch ░░░░░░░░ is great to see ░░░░░░░░ know the Goldman balance ░░░░░░░░ a lot of it ░░░░░░░░ of savings they re ░░░░░░░░ You know really did ░░░░░░░░ good job on internally ░░░░░░░░ then you know again ░░░░░░░░ s the consumer to ░░░░░░░░ you know we can ░░░░░░░░ have big earnings continue ░░░░░░░░ you have it in ░░░░░░░░ you know curve so ░░░░░░░░ can persist longer and ░░░░░░░░ now we ve got ░░░░░░░░ use above that ends ░░░░░░░░ so that s not ░░░░░░░░ for earnings going forward ░░░░░░░░ the financial services sector ░░░░░░░░ even bank sector That ░░░░░░░░ persist again that s ░░░░░░░░ recessionary indication on the ░░░░░░░░ that we re paying ░░░░░░░░ to so again The ░░░░░░░░ is slowing The federer ░░░░░░░░ got a window of ░░░░░░░░ to get the job ░░░░░░░░ and then I think ░░░░░░░░ s going to be ░░░░░░░░ pause and wait and ░░░░░░░░ environment which then sets ░░░░░░░░ well in the back ░░░░░░░░ of the year for ░░░░░░░░ Yeah why exactly are ░░░░░░░░ bank earning so important ░░░░░░░░ right now what is ░░░░░░░░ about the consumer picture ░░░░░░░░ we re good that ░░░░░░░░ important information for people ░░░░░░░░ take notice of Yeah ░░░░░░░░ earnings are again a ░░░░░░░░ on credit card spending ░░░░░░░░ the consumer itself and ░░░░░░░░ whether is where we ░░░░░░░░ an issue here with ░░░░░░░░ to inflation or runaway ░░░░░░░░ for them this part ░░░░░░░░ because consumers have you ░░░░░░░░ over 2 trillion dollars ░░░░░░░░ their balance sheets You ░░░░░░░░ ready willing and able ░░░░░░░░ basically starts deployed and ░░░░░░░░ 2 thirds of our ░░░░░░░░ is all about the ░░░░░░░░ so we always the ░░░░░░░░ to how banks are ░░░░░░░░ what consumer behavior is ░░░░░░░░ consumer baker s going ░░░░░░░░ shift we re going ░░░░░░░░ get an indication of ░░░░░░░░ know the ballot she ░░░░░░░░ savings depleting on the ░░░░░░░░ about she to then ░░░░░░░░ of increasing and that ░░░░░░░░ not a good sign ░░░░░░░░ s a good sign ░░░░░░░░ the economy to continue ░░░░░░░░ we do need sort ░░░░░░░░ the spending to slow ░░░░░░░░ a little bit because ░░░░░░░░ s too many dollars ░░░░░░░░ chasing too few goods ░░░░░░░░ services so that s ░░░░░░░░ the Fed s trying ░░░░░░░░ work on But yeah ░░░░░░░░ have to pay attention ░░░░░░░░ the bank earnings because ░░░░░░░░ tells a lot about ░░░░░░░░ consumer and that s ░░░░░░░░ thirds of our economy ░░░░░░░░ right and we re ░░░░░░░░ set to get earnings ░░░░░░░░ a slew of other ░░░░░░░░ companies including netflix Tesla ░░░░░░░░ what are you expecting ░░░░░░░░ these blue chip stocks ░░░░░░░░ during the year where ░░░░░░░░ ve seen a lot ░░░░░░░░ investors move away Growth ░░░░░░░░ Those that aren t ░░░░░░░░ the valuation and dividends ░░░░░░░░ return earn on these ░░░░░░░░ especially during this really ░░░░░░░░ time Yes so we ░░░░░░░░ done in the advice ░░░░░░░░ get into our client ░░░░░░░░ shot of management is ░░░░░░░░ ballots are diversified again ░░░░░░░░ like the the healthcare ░░░░░░░░ as because it pays ░░░░░░░░ the value has outperform ░░░░░░░░ as you just pointed ░░░░░░░░ this week growth companies ░░░░░░░░ are in the growth ░░░░░░░░ that actually produced earnings ░░░░░░░░ they deploy them by ░░░░░░░░ of dividends are not ░░░░░░░░ they are shareholder you ░░░░░░░░ you really want companies ░░░░░░░░ have top line earnings ░░░░░░░░ bottom line earnings as ░░░░░░░░ so that you know ░░░░░░░░ solid companies you re ░░░░░░░░ the companies that are ░░░░░░░░ know tec light that ░░░░░░░░ no you know 2020 ░░░░░░░░ you will those have ░░░░░░░░ gotten damaged in hit ░░░░░░░░ year today So that ░░░░░░░░ kind of too much ░░░░░░░░ a you know I ░░░░░░░░ you know that s ░░░░░░░░ where you want to ░░░░░░░░ start I m paying ░░░░░░░░ to we just like ░░░░░░░░ quality companies that produce ░░░░░░░░ flow and especially if ░░░░░░░░ have a dividend that ░░░░░░░░ a good place to ░░░░░░░░ out when you re ░░░░░░░░ a bear market as ░░░░░░░░ are still you know ░░░░░░░░ in mind a couple ░░░░░░░░ technical levels are going ░░░░░░░░ actually to do as ░░░░░░░░ as the s p ░░░░░░░░ although are having a ░░░░░░░░ it really meant remains ░░░░░░░░ be seen if we ░░░░░░░░ you know basically close ░░░░░░░░ the 50 day moving ░░░░░░░░ for the s p ░░░░░░░░ right now that s ░░░░░░░░ 28 ish and we ░░░░░░░░ see a rally all ░░░░░░░░ way from where we ░░░░░░░░ and then test the ░░░░░░░░ day moving average on ░░░░░░░░ upside that s really ░░░░░░░░ to give us an ░░░░░░░░ is you know where ░░░░░░░░ are in the cycle ░░░░░░░░ if we can you ░░░░░░░░ move our way higher ░░░░░░░░ there Something we re ░░░░░░░░ watching right now is ░░░░░░░░ job market which a ░░░░░░░░ of experts have told ░░░░░░░░ that s far has ░░░░░░░░ relatively healthy right now ░░░░░░░░ Goldman Sachs is putting ░░░░░░░░ a warning that the ░░░░░░░░ market is poised to ░░░░░░░░ sharply in the coming ░░░░░░░░ and do you agree ░░░░░░░░ the forecast and what ░░░░░░░░ that mean Yes sir ░░░░░░░░ speaking we haven t ░░░░░░░░ a technical recession recession ░░░░░░░░ the job market basically ░░░░░░░░ over And yes we ░░░░░░░░ see that everything that ░░░░░░░░ read especially The Wall ░░░░░░░░ Journal the corporate earnings ░░░░░░░░ just you know it ░░░░░░░░ out of Silicon Valley ░░░░░░░░ re seeing either hiring ░░░░░░░░ or laying off since ░░░░░░░░ corporation corporations are slowing ░░░░░░░░ we saw this in ░░░░░░░░ as well in March ░░░░░░░░ You know we have ░░░░░░░░ highest spread over 400 ░░░░░░░░ jobs It did back ░░░░░░░░ and so that was ░░░░░░░░ hot job market and ░░░░░░░░ what happened as we ░░░░░░░░ the markets basically in ░░░░░░░░ economy Roll over so ░░░░░░░░ job market is a ░░░░░░░░ indicator and so we ░░░░░░░░ right now in 2 ░░░░░░░░ you know job market ░░░░░░░░ think we re going ░░░░░░░░ see corporation slowdown for ░░░░░░░░ as well as to ░░░░░░░░ where the economy goes ░░░░░░░░ forward so that s ░░░░░░░░ to it will work ░░░░░░░░ way into the job ░░░░░░░░ Easing up and that ░░░░░░░░ basically easing cycle for ░░░░░░░░ jobs going to be ░░░░░░░░ for the economy to ░░░░░░░░ for the Federal Reserve ░░░░░░░░ s that what that ░░░░░░░░ exactly what needs to ░░░░░░░░ So we we anticipate ░░░░░░░░ the job market could ░░░░░░░░ slowing down a little ░░░░░░░░ moving forward So to ░░░░░░░░ on that note really ░░░░░░░░ information but what should ░░░░░░░░ be doing during this ░░░░░░░░ as they are preparing ░░░░░░░░ a slowdown in the ░░░░░░░░ market are there specific ░░░░░░░░ where you re expecting ░░░░░░░░ It happened first we ░░░░░░░░ already kind of seen ░░░░░░░░ start with in the ░░░░░░░░ area crypto where else ░░░░░░░░ think this can pop ░░░░░░░░ soon Yes so investors ░░░░░░░░ specifically should be using ░░░░░░░░ Kennedy and markets like ░░░░░░░░ for upgrading their portfolios ░░░░░░░░ know everyone has a ░░░░░░░░ and they re pinned ░░░░░░░░ account their portfolio to ░░░░░░░░ listen This is a ░░░░░░░░ idea at the time ░░░░░░░░ the you know the ░░░░░░░░ shifting and the markets ░░░░░░░░ shifting so what can ░░░░░░░░ sell to and then ░░░░░░░░ something that s down ░░░░░░░░ now a good quality ░░░░░░░░ diverse the 5 cost ░░░░░░░░ you know and upgrade ░░░░░░░░ portfolio higher quality because ░░░░░░░░ don t know how ░░░░░░░░ or how deep recession ░░░░░░░░ be moving forward we ░░░░░░░░ know is those companies ░░░░░░░░ have large balance sheets ░░░░░░░░ you corporate America guidance ░░░░░░░░ you will in terms ░░░░░░░░ management teams Those will ░░░░░░░░ only get bigger and ░░░░░░░░ but they ll thrive ░░░░░░░░ we get through recessionary ░░░░░░░░ of time so is ░░░░░░░░ opportunity to upgrade your ░░░░░░░░ is opportunity say listen ░░░░░░░░ s working what s ░░░░░░░░ but don t miss ░░░░░░░░ opportunity when the markets ░░░░░░░░ down essentially everything s ░░░░░░░░ sale to look at ░░░░░░░░ you want to moving ░░░░░░░░ Say that you build ░░░░░░░░ wealth during a recession ░░░░░░░░ also want to get ░░░░░░░░ last question in about ░░░░░░░░ prices they ve been ░░░░░░░░ a steady down turn ░░░░░░░░ the last 30 days ░░░░░░░░ a row extending their ░░░░░░░░ decline in over 2 ░░░░░░░░ something that A lot ░░░░░░░░ Americans love to see ░░░░░░░░ right now in this ░░░░░░░░ environment but what do ░░░░░░░░ think that says about ░░░░░░░░ future moving forward as ░░░░░░░░ decline can can you ░░░░░░░░ how does it impact ░░░░░░░░ entire inflation dynamic Yeah ░░░░░░░░ saw a broad base ░░░░░░░░ out of the with ░░░░░░░░ couple other indications last ░░░░░░░░ days plus obviously medals ░░░░░░░░ a few others again ░░░░░░░░ the signs on the ░░░░░░░░ of a global recession ░░░░░░░░ don t forget the ░░░░░░░░ dollars in there as ░░░░░░░░ which is also going ░░░░░░░░ global let s go ░░░░░░░░ economy says the United ░░░░░░░░ but going back to ░░░░░░░░ very specifically as I ░░░░░░░░ talking about about the ░░░░░░░░ table the consumer as ░░░░░░░░ energy is going to ░░░░░░░░ persistent the higher for ░░░░░░░░ simply because the structural ░░░░░░░░ term set up of ░░░░░░░░ policymakers in the United ░░░░░░░░ and globally you know ░░░░░░░░ re not ready to ░░░░░░░░ the switch tomorrow To ░░░░░░░░ independence We all love ░░░░░░░░ love that to happen ░░░░░░░░ love to get there ░░░░░░░░ there has to be ░░░░░░░░ time and place first ░░░░░░░░ hybrid approach and getting ░░░░░░░░ of transition over time ░░░░░░░░ so in the short ░░░░░░░░ a short term you ░░░░░░░░ us kind you know ░░░░░░░░ their toe right now ░░░░░░░░ our energy independence we ░░░░░░░░ be producing You know ░░░░░░░░ now there s a ░░░░░░░░ deficit of 3 million ░░░░░░░░ on the global market ░░░░░░░░ s say we go ░░░░░░░░ a global recession that ░░░░░░░░ barrels a day that ░░░░░░░░ re still going to ░░░░░░░░ a net deficit that ░░░░░░░░ by OPEC go to ░░░░░░░░ report last week So ░░░░░░░░ ve got the the ░░░░░░░░ only thing that can ░░░░░░░░ help oil is if ░░░░░░░░ go into global recession ░░░░░░░░ I am but it ░░░░░░░░ still not going to ░░░░░░░░ as much as we ░░░░░░░░ to we re in ░░░░░░░░ deficit in terms of ░░░░░░░░ production Worldwide in terms ░░░░░░░░ production So that s ░░░░░░░░ a classic supply and ░░░░░░░░ stories or oil right ░░░░░░░░ is trading down It ░░░░░░░░ great for the consumer ░░░░░░░░ feel that especially holiday ░░░░░░░░ season or summer travel ░░░░░░░░ But longer term I ░░░░░░░░ oil is going to ░░░░░░░░ know stronger and higher ░░░░░░░░ him Again lots of ░░░░░░░░ information so good to ░░░░░░░░ you on the show ░░░░░░░░ again that s Robert ░░░░░░░░ chief investment officer at ░░░░░░░░ shine last minute run ░░░░░░░░ coming up as rent ░░░░░░░░ reach new heights in ░░░░░░░░ York City is there ░░░░░░░░ app she will solution ░░░░░░░░ will prices ever come ░░░░░░░░ we re taking a ░░░░░░░░ at Manhattan s rental ░░░░░░░░ and what it means ░░░░░░░░ the rest of the ░░░░░░░░ after a quick break.