RUSH TRANSCRIPT David well ░░░░░░░░ big retailers target kohl ░░░░░░░░ wal mart they re ░░░░░░░░ raising the red flag ░░░░░░░░ inflation this week sending ░░░░░░░░ into a spiral bigtime ░░░░░░░░ putting recession fierce on ░░░░░░░░ what s Well fears ░░░░░░░░ somebody are questioning are ░░░░░░░░ already in a recession ░░░░░░░░ polcari is with us ░░░░░░░░ Fink and former Dallas ░░░░░░░░ if adviser danielle demartino ░░░░░░░░ Thanks for joining us ░░░░░░░░ first to you I ░░░░░░░░ you to hear a ░░░░░░░░ bite from David saks ░░░░░░░░ high class venture capitalist ░░░░░░░░ of the early investors ░░░░░░░░ Facebook paypal etc This ░░░░░░░░ what he had to ░░░░░░░░ about recession Toll rape ░░░░░░░░ tape From where I ░░░░░░░░ market is really semi ░░░░░░░░ and this is again ░░░░░░░░ worst downturn since dot ░░░░░░░░ crash and it looks ░░░░░░░░ me like we re ░░░░░░░░ into serious recession David ░░░░░░░░ he right kennysome I ░░░░░░░░ he s right I ░░░░░░░░ we re going to ░░░░░░░░ there before the pall ░░░░░░░░ was actually one who ░░░░░░░░ it was going to ░░░░░░░░ early next year I ░░░░░░░░ think it s bing ░░░░░░░░ arrive late summer The ░░░░░░░░ is really going to ░░░░░░░░ on what the Fed ░░░░░░░░ the pace at which ░░░░░░░░ move to try to ░░░░░░░░ inflation And they re ░░░░░░░░ once again those 75 ░░░░░░░░ points and even the ░░░░░░░░ day I heard a ░░░░░░░░ 1 move Cade David ░░░░░░░░ this week was a ░░░░░░░░ game changer because all ░░░░░░░░ real damage can had ░░░░░░░░ focused on the tech ░░░░░░░░ but week we got ░░░░░░░░ retail stocks You know ░░░░░░░░ stocks kind of tell ░░░░░░░░ us what s happening ░░░░░░░░ the economy like Walmart ░░░░░░░░ lowe s Was this ░░░░░░░░ the week you really ░░░░░░░░ a little more clearly ░░░░░░░░ a recession It was ░░░░░░░░ know Amazon first announced ░░░░░░░░ was going to be ░░░░░░░░ off 100 000 workers ░░░░░░░░ said well there s ░░░░░░░░ shot across the bow ░░░░░░░░ we really did get ░░░░░░░░ of the showdown slowdown ░░░░░░░░ target Walmart kohl s ░░░░░░░░ we re sitting on ░░░░░░░░ too much inventory demand ░░░░░░░░ not there Inflation s ░░░░░░░░ our clients and us ░░░░░░░░ customers and us alive ░░░░░░░░ think what several fed ░░░░░░░░ have said recently whether ░░░░░░░░ re freudian slips or ░░░░░░░░ is that we re ░░░░░░░░ in recession in the ░░░░░░░░ quarter I think they ░░░░░░░░ right David Laura the ░░░░░░░░ s numbers on the ░░░░░░░░ and inflation in particular ░░░░░░░░ just terrible How without ░░░░░░░░ major pivot on the ░░░░░░░░ opening up oil production ░░░░░░░░ something else that will ░░░░░░░░ show Americans that he ░░░░░░░░ handle the economy I ░░░░░░░░ t see much of ░░░░░░░░ future for him do ░░░░░░░░ Well what I wonder ░░░░░░░░ what Republicans are going ░░░░░░░░ do I think Joe ░░░░░░░░ knows the economy he ░░░░░░░░ in Jeff Jerome Powell ░░░░░░░░ and we mow the ░░░░░░░░ and treasury are going ░░░░░░░░ have to work with ░░░░░░░░ rates to land the ░░░░░░░░ like scully on the ░░░░░░░░ Laughter This is the ░░░░░░░░ across the world and ░░░░░░░░ see this administration working ░░░░░░░░ hard to handle it ░░░░░░░░ we ve mentioned all ░░░░░░░░ economic indicators that are ░░░░░░░░ of downers today so ░░░░░░░░ me give you some ░░░░░░░░ ones Consumer outlook on ░░░░░░░░ future has improved The ░░░░░░░░ jobs report was exceptionally ░░░░░░░░ and U S Yoest ░░░░░░░░ and U S growth ░░░░░░░░ outpacing China s for ░░░░░░░░ first time since 1976 ░░░░░░░░ you can cherry pick ░░░░░░░░ there are certainly a ░░░░░░░░ of economists that disagree ░░░░░░░░ recession David well that ░░░░░░░░ true A that is ░░░░░░░░ good point But on ░░░░░░░░ other hand kenny Americans ░░░░░░░░ it bad I mean ░░░░░░░░ look at 79 of ░░░░░░░░ think we re going ░░░░░░░░ the wrong direction and ░░░░░░░░ s primarily because of ░░░░░░░░ economy I think you ░░░░░░░░ absolutely right Learn we ░░░░░░░░ here right We re ░░░░░░░░ ones experiencing it I ░░░░░░░░ t really care what ░░░░░░░░ going on in China ░░░░░░░░ care about what s ░░░░░░░░ in this country and ░░░░░░░░ think a recession is ░░░░░░░░ A David danielle we ░░░░░░░░ have a fed official ░░░░░░░░ and he s kind ░░░░░░░░ a hawk He s ░░░░░░░░ president of of the ░░░░░░░░ his name is Mr ░░░░░░░░ and he was on ░░░░░░░░ business earlier week and ░░░░░░░░ kind of took issue ░░░░░░░░ that recession charge Let ░░░░░░░░ just play that tape ░░░░░░░░ it Not year reporter ░░░░░░░░ year No I don ░░░░░░░░ really think so That ░░░░░░░░ not my base case ░░░░░░░░ would have to come ░░░░░░░░ there s some really ░░░░░░░░ shock and I can ░░░░░░░░ rule out that there ░░░░░░░░ be some really big ░░░░░░░░ and maybe there would ░░░░░░░░ But I m not ░░░░░░░░ it you know near ░░░░░░░░ David danielle he says ░░░░░░░░ wants to get the ░░░░░░░░ s fund rate the ░░░░░░░░ rates up to 3 ░░░░░░░░ They re now less ░░░░░░░░ 1 So maybe he ░░░░░░░░ just talking his book ░░░░░░░░ order to give him ░░░░░░░░ room to raise rates ░░░░░░░░ don t know What ░░░░░░░░ you think I really ░░░░░░░░ think that Bear in ░░░░░░░░ fed officials they have ░░░░░░░░ be public relations standard ░░░░░░░░ They cannot say we ░░░░░░░░ going into recession I ░░░░░░░░ there for almost a ░░░░░░░░ It s against the ░░░░░░░░ So he can t ░░░░░░░░ say what he s ░░░░░░░░ seeing But if if ░░░░░░░░ look at jobless claims ░░░░░░░░ March 19th they ve ░░░░░░░░ by 31 off of ░░░░░░░░ lows Americans expectations for ░░░░░░░░ unemployment that is up ░░░░░░░░ percentage points 80 of ░░░░░░░░ time in data back ░░░░░░░░ 1978 The economy s ░░░░░░░░ been in recession when ░░░░░░░░ perception of the jock ░░░░░░░░ is as down job ░░░░░░░░ is as downed as ░░░░░░░░ is today At some ░░░░░░░░ fed officials will have ░░░░░░░░ give into the actual ░░░░░░░░ that are stare ising ░░░░░░░░ in the face I ░░░░░░░░ t know when that ░░░░░░░░ going to be We ░░░░░░░░ were at 2 5 ░░░░░░░░ the Fed funds rate ░░░░░░░░ time I don t ░░░░░░░░ we actually get to ░░░░░░░░ 5 unless the Fed ░░░░░░░░ intent on putting the ░░░░░░░░ S into recession David ░░░░░░░░ seconds Laura I ll ░░░░░░░░ less than 10 Consumer ░░░░░░░░ remains strong and the ░░░░░░░░ Inaudible conversations Pleasure David ░░░░░░░░ ve got to move ░░░░░░░░ folks We re going ░░░░░░░░ see more of panel ░░░░░░░░ up in the next ░░░░░░░░