Prof. Mearsheimer to Amb. McFaul in 2014: ‘If We Pursue Policies that You’re Advocating We’re Going to Wreck Ukraine’

MEARSHEIMER Let me make ░░░░░░░░ point The fact is ░░░░░░░░ when you re dealing ░░░░░░░░ great power politics and ░░░░░░░░ have a country like ░░░░░░░░ it does not make ░░░░░░░░ sense to talk about ░░░░░░░░ It s the same ░░░░░░░░ when you re dealing ░░░░░░░░ the United States of ░░░░░░░░ If you think Cuba ░░░░░░░░ a right to invite ░░░░░░░░ Soviets into the western ░░░░░░░░ you re living in ░░░░░░░░ dream world Fidel Castro ░░░░░░░░ been in power since ░░░░░░░░ We still have a ░░░░░░░░ embargo on Cuba because ░░░░░░░░ had the audacity to ░░░░░░░░ the Soviets into the ░░░░░░░░ hemisphere This is the ░░░░░░░░ Doctrine that you mentioned ░░░░░░░░ We do not tolerate ░░░░░░░░ powers coming into our ░░░░░░░░ Why do you expect ░░░░░░░░ the Russian should accept ░░░░░░░░ idea that NATO a ░░░░░░░░ military foe can drive ░░░░░░░░ alliance right up to ░░░░░░░░ doorstep It can t ░░░░░░░░ the Russians eyes Great ░░░░░░░░ politics international law all ░░░░░░░░ things go out the ░░░░░░░░ when a great power ░░░░░░░░ that its core interests ░░░░░░░░ at stake Do you ░░░░░░░░ we paid attention to ░░░░░░░░ law when we went ░░░░░░░░ Iraq in 2003 foolishly ░░░░░░░░ might add We violated ░░░░░░░░ law because George Bush ░░░░░░░░ explicitly that he thought ░░░░░░░░ strategic interests of the ░░░░░░░░ States were at stake ░░░░░░░░ that was that s ░░░░░░░░ on in Ukraine UNKNOWN ░░░░░░░░ Yes And it really ░░░░░░░░ MEARSHEIMER And the key ░░░░░░░░ that you want to ░░░░░░░░ in mind here UNKNOWN ░░░░░░░░ Was that good for ░░░░░░░░ U S is the ░░░░░░░░ MEARSHEIMER No of course ░░░░░░░░ wasn t MCFAUL So ░░░░░░░░ is it good for ░░░░░░░░ MEARSHEIMER Pardon MCFAUL So ░░░░░░░░ is it good for ░░░░░░░░ to do the same ░░░░░░░░ Ukraine Like MEARSHEIMER Because ░░░░░░░░ I have this debate ░░░░░░░░ night on Twitter with ░░░░░░░░ Russian friends Well what ░░░░░░░░ Iraq And I say ░░░░░░░░ you are for the ░░░░░░░░ of Iraq then I ░░░░░░░░ understand why you would ░░░░░░░░ invasion of Ukraine But ░░░░░░░░ No I ll answer ░░░░░░░░ question Critical strategic interests ░░░░░░░░ not at stake in ░░░░░░░░ for the United States ░░░░░░░░ was no good strategic ░░░░░░░░ for us to intervene ░░░░░░░░ we were guaranteed to ░░░░░░░░ as we have proved ░░░░░░░░ is a fundamentally different ░░░░░░░░ This is a core ░░░░░░░░ interest of Russia UNKNOWN ░░░░░░░░ How how does that ░░░░░░░░ the Baltic states now ░░░░░░░░ NATO and the E ░░░░░░░░ How does that impinge ░░░░░░░░ cool Russian strategic interests ░░░░░░░░ MEARSHEIMER As Dmitri said ░░░░░░░░ is of enormous importance ░░░░░░░░ the russians We got ░░░░░░░░ with the first two ░░░░░░░░ of NATO expansion The ░░░░░░░░ one included the Baltic ░░░░░░░░ because the Russians were ░░░░░░░░ weak and not in ░░░░░░░░ position to contest us ░░░░░░░░ they made it clear ░░░░░░░░ April 2008 this is ░░░░░░░░ the Bucharest summit when ░░░░░░░░ announced that Ukraine and ░░░░░░░░ would become part of ░░░░░░░░ that this was just ░░░░░░░░ It was a bridge ░░░░░░░░ far And as I ░░░░░░░░ before that s why ░░░░░░░░ got the August 2008 ░░░░░░░░ and that s why ░░░░░░░░ have the UNKNOWN MALE ░░░░░░░░ without it he might ░░░░░░░░ be in Vilnius now ░░░░░░░░ What does that mean ░░░░░░░░ MALE But without the ░░░░░░░░ of NATO without Article ░░░░░░░░ MEARSHEIMER He would not ░░░░░░░░ UNKNOWN MALE wouldn t ░░░░░░░░ Putin be back in ░░░░░░░░ right now MEARSHEIMER No ░░░░░░░░ showed zero interest in ░░░░░░░░ Crimea before the February ░░░░░░░░ coup And in effect ░░░░░░░░ you look at what ░░░░░░░░ was saying immediately after ░░░░░░░░ coup he was not ░░░░░░░░ talking about taking Crimea ░░░░░░░░ fact he was saying ░░░░░░░░ he wouldn t take ░░░░░░░░ There is no evidence ░░░░░░░░ anybody in the west ░░░░░░░░ the intelligence community fought ░░░░░░░░ Putin was an expansionist ░░░░░░░░ was about to go ░░░░░░░░ an aggressive rampage No ░░░░░░░░ of that It was ░░░░░░░░ February 27nd coup that ░░░░░░░░ that and all he ░░░░░░░░ was the Crimea which ░░░░░░░░ picking off the low ░░░░░░░░ fruit He is not ░░░░░░░░ enough to go into ░░░░░░░░ or to go into ░░░░░░░░ or pick a fight ░░░░░░░░ NATO This is a ░░░░░░░░ UNKNOWN MALE Yeah but ░░░░░░░░ s because they re ░░░░░░░░ NATO MEARSHEIMER That s ░░░░░░░░ That s correct UNKNOWN ░░░░░░░░ So why shouldn t ░░░░░░░░ Ukrainians want the same ░░░░░░░░ MEARSHEIMER He s not ░░░░░░░░ to let them in ░░░░░░░░ s the point He ░░░░░░░░ made it very clear ░░░░░░░░ Ukraine cannot get into ░░░░░░░░ And what s going ░░░░░░░░ happen here is that ░░░░░░░░ we pursue the policies ░░░░░░░░ you re advocating we ░░░░░░░░ going a wreck Ukraine ░░░░░░░░ United States is leading ░░░░░░░░ Ukrainians down the primrose ░░░░░░░░ telling them that they ░░░░░░░░ a right to choose ░░░░░░░░ alliance they want to ░░░░░░░░ This is asking for ░░░░░░░░ trouble and this is ░░░░░░░░ Putin is doing He ░░░░░░░░ wrecking Ukraine It would ░░░░░░░░ much better off if ░░░░░░░░ created a neutral Ukraine ░░░░░░░░ said NATO expansion is ░░░░░░░░ the table and to ░░░░░░░░ extent that we extended ░░░░░░░░ E U eastward we ░░░░░░░░ it in conjunction with ░░░░░░░░ IMF the Russians and ░░░░░░░░ American government and we ░░░░░░░░ out some sort of ░░░░░░░░ economic package But the ░░░░░░░░ that you re going ░░░░░░░░ turn this place into ░░░░░░░░ bulwark of the west ░░░░░░░░ on the Russian border ░░░░░░░░ Putin in control it ░░░░░░░░ not going to happen ░░░░░░░░ matter what the Americans ░░░░░░░░ the panel think It ░░░░░░░░ crosstalk UNKNOWN MALE Last ░░░░░░░░ I checked you re ░░░░░░░░ American yourself.”