RUSH TRANSCRIPT Joining me ░░░░░░░░ CNN s chief medical ░░░░░░░░ and William Hazeltine a ░░░░░░░░ at the school of ░░░░░░░░ health and also author ░░░░░░░░ A family guide to ░░░░░░░░ Great to have both ░░░░░░░░ you on Sanjay been ░░░░░░░░ few hours since I ░░░░░░░░ to you This model ░░░░░░░░ again these are not ░░░░░░░░ balls They are models ░░░░░░░░ help give you a ░░░░░░░░ of what is going ░░░░░░░░ come and you and ░░░░░░░░ talk about this often ░░░░░░░░ we look at this ░░░░░░░░ model in recent months ░░░░░░░░ under stated the death ░░░░░░░░ under shot the death ░░░░░░░░ when you look at ░░░░░░░░ figures do you find ░░░░░░░░ a credible path where ░░░░░░░░ pandemic is going in ░░░░░░░░ country It was a ░░░░░░░░ jarring 4 00 A ░░░░░░░░ Wakeup call to look ░░░░░░░░ the model for you ░░░░░░░░ me both Yeah it ░░░░░░░░ not surprising but pretty ░░░░░░░░ You know I think ░░░░░░░░ are the previous models ░░░░░░░░ as you point out ░░░░░░░░ compare the projections versus ░░░░░░░░ the real numbers were ░░░░░░░░ if anything this particular ░░░░░░░░ has been conservative That ░░░░░░░░ one in October they ░░░░░░░░ 180 000 people would ░░░░░░░░ by their projection by ░░░░░░░░ obviously it beginning of ░░░░░░░░ and we ve surpassed ░░░░░░░░ That gives you some ░░░░░░░░ There was some sense ░░░░░░░░ we had sort of ░░░░░░░░ in this country at ░░░░░░░░ average of 1 000 ░░░░░░░░ dying a day which ░░░░░░░░ awful It horrific to ░░░░░░░░ about and we shouldn ░░░░░░░░ get used to ever ░░░░░░░░ that but what this ░░░░░░░░ is now projecting is ░░░░░░░░ those numbers are going ░░░░░░░░ go up up to ░░░░░░░░ 000 people potentially dying ░░░░░░░░ day by December So ░░░░░░░░ does make sense sadly ░░░░░░░░ Hazeltine at the upper ░░░░░░░░ worst case scenario a ░░░░░░░░ could jump to 620 ░░░░░░░░ by January first based ░░░░░░░░ this model here I ░░░░░░░░ that presumes a further ░░░░░░░░ of social distancing mask ░░░░░░░░ et cetera which we ░░░░░░░░ seeing signs of When ░░░░░░░░ look at where this ░░░░░░░░ is going with its ░░░░░░░░ now on this and ░░░░░░░░ of exhaustion right with ░░░░░░░░ pandemic do you consider ░░░░░░░░ a realistic outcome Well ░░░░░░░░ think it is a ░░░░░░░░ outcome and we know ░░░░░░░░ this epidemic depends on ░░░░░░░░ own behavior amongst other ░░░░░░░░ When the president says ░░░░░░░░ re rounding a corner ░░░░░░░░ reminds me very much ░░░░░░░░ years ago when Lyndon ░░░░░░░░ said there is a ░░░░░░░░ at the end of ░░░░░░░░ tunnel It turned out ░░░░░░░░ was a tunnel at ░░░░░░░░ end of the tunnel ░░░░░░░░ the numbers that we ░░░░░░░░ looking at just think ░░░░░░░░ what the on course ░░░░░░░░ looks like It looks ░░░░░░░░ as many people dying ░░░░░░░░ now and December and ░░░░░░░░ can have our own ░░░░░░░░ schedules go from now ░░░░░░░░ December This insane number ░░░░░░░░ people that died from ░░░░░░░░ beginning of this epidemic ░░░░░░░░ on track to die ░░░░░░░░ the next three months ░░░░░░░░ s the average If ░░░░░░░░ take loosening up more ░░░░░░░░ we are it s ░░░░░░░░ times that or 12 ░░░░░░░░ people a day die ░░░░░░░░ what is 12 000 ░░░░░░░░ a day look like ░░░░░░░░ can tell you in ░░░░░░░░ York City it looked ░░░░░░░░ a makeshift morgue on ░░░░░░░░ cross street two blocks ░░░░░░░░ from me with 40 ░░░░░░░░ bags on the street ░░░░░░░░ of them a friend ░░░░░░░░ mine That s what ░░░░░░░░ looks like We saw ░░░░░░░░ it in New York ░░░░░░░░ York to its credit ░░░░░░░░ it under control by ░░░░░░░░ strict measures to reduce ░░░░░░░░ spread Sanjay a lot ░░░░░░░░ focus Everybody is wearing ░░░░░░░░ mask that you see ░░░░░░░░ are 90 People stick ░░░░░░░░ the rules to their ░░░░░░░░ Sanjay a lot of ░░░░░░░░ on a vaccine Russia ░░░░░░░░ making progress here but ░░░░░░░░ re jump starting the ░░░░░░░░ right in that they ░░░░░░░░ rushing before the end ░░░░░░░░ phrase three trials Is ░░░░░░░░ good news or are ░░░░░░░░ going too fast I ░░░░░░░░ glad they released data ░░░░░░░░ will say that but ░░░░░░░░ think we would be ░░░░░░░░ served to be skeptical ░░░░░░░░ When we last heard ░░░░░░░░ this we heard about ░░░░░░░░ and approved and Russia ░░░░░░░░ heard that Putin s ░░░░░░░░ got a dose of ░░░░░░░░ We heard investigators gave ░░░░░░░░ the science In the ░░░░░░░░ if you look at ░░░░░░░░ data we look at ░░░░░░░░ data There is 76 ░░░░░░░░ They got two doses ░░░░░░░░ this According to the ░░░░░░░░ published mild side effects ░░░░░░░░ headache and fever and ░░░░░░░░ show evidence of generating ░░░░░░░░ neutralizing antibodies not in ░░░░░░░░ concentration of other trials ░░░░░░░░ did show some of ░░░░░░░░ I got to tell ░░░░░░░░ this is just a ░░░░░░░░ story to cover because ░░░░░░░░ know there is not ░░░░░░░░ lot of transparency period ░░░░░░░░ re talking about the ░░░░░░░░ vaccine but many of ░░░░░░░░ vaccine candidates We re ░░░░░░░░ very limited data The ░░░░░░░░ is sometimes by press ░░░░░░░░ sometimes a preprint We ░░░░░░░░ like to see better ░░░░░░░░ There is bipartisan legislation ░░░░░░░░ the safe authorization of ░░░░░░░░ during an emergency that ░░░░░░░░ for the public to ░░░░░░░░ able to get full ░░░░░░░░ I think that s ░░░░░░░░ good thing for this ░░░░░░░░ vaccine Part of the ░░░░░░░░ force are fears in ░░░░░░░░ country of political interference ░░░░░░░░ have the president saying ░░░░░░░░ vaccine by October no ░░░░░░░░ health officials for any ░░░░░░░░ vaccine news before the ░░░░░░░░ Should Americans be concerned ░░░░░░░░ Politics will influence the ░░░░░░░░ here Well Politics will ░░░░░░░░ the science if it ░░░░░░░░ And we should be ░░░░░░░░ because we don t ░░░░░░░░ what s going to ░░░░░░░░ safe or effective nor ░░░░░░░░ we know by November ░░░░░░░░ The second thing I ░░░░░░░░ say is I ve ░░░░░░░░ looking at the Russian ░░░░░░░░ If they had a ░░░░░░░░ vaccine why are their ░░░░░░░░ going up They don ░░░░░░░░ have a miracle vaccine ░░░░░░░░ you look at the ░░░░░░░░ as Sanjay said it ░░░░░░░░ like any ordinary phase ░░░░░░░░ study they called it ░░░░░░░░ phase two study not ░░░░░░░░ phase two study It ░░░░░░░░ less than 100 people ░░░░░░░░ did okay There is ░░░░░░░░ a couple of features ░░░░░░░░ would commend about the ░░░░░░░░ that they have one ░░░░░░░░ that is heat stable ░░░░░░░░ s good for the ░░░░░░░░ world but it s ░░░░░░░░ by any means an ░░░░░░░░ standard or any kind ░░░░░░░░ standard for which to ░░░░░░░░ a vaccine for general ░░░░░░░░ Well let s hope ░░░░░░░░ U S Follows a ░░░░░░░░ standard Sanjay William Hazeltine ░░░░░░░░ to both of you.