FiveThirtyEight Statistician Disarms MSNBC’s Velshi’s Various Gun Control Ideas

VELSHI Leah Libresco is ░░░░░░░░ statistician a former writer ░░░░░░░░ FiveThirtyEight She wrote this ░░░░░░░░ ed she says I ░░░░░░░░ to think gun control ░░░░░░░░ the answer My research ░░░░░░░░ me otherwise She goes ░░░░░░░░ a litany of things ░░░░░░░░ draw this dissonance between ░░░░░░░░ that happen mass shootings ░░░░░░░░ happen and the laws ░░░░░░░░ propose to fix them ░░░░░░░░ s part of the ░░░░░░░░ that I just discussed ░░░░░░░░ the senator and with ░░░░░░░░ Spitzer and that is ░░░░░░░░ sometimes people who don ░░░░░░░░ like the availability of ░░░░░░░░ target the wrong thing ░░░░░░░░ Yes I don t ░░░░░░░░ the availability of guns ░░░░░░░░ my ideal world there ░░░░░░░░ be a lot less ░░░░░░░░ I don t see ░░░░░░░░ lot of policies proposed ░░░░░░░░ by mainstream politicians that ░░░░░░░░ have a real impact ░░░░░░░░ the number of guns ░░░░░░░░ more importantly the number ░░░░░░░░ lives taken by guns ░░░░░░░░ worked at FiveThirtyEight on ░░░░░░░░ big guns project looking ░░░░░░░░ all 33 000 gun ░░░░░░░░ in America every year ░░░░░░░░ thirds of which are ░░░░░░░░ But what tends to ░░░░░░░░ is we choose the ░░░░░░░░ recent tragedy proposing policies ░░░░░░░░ would make very little ░░░░░░░░ even to the most ░░░░░░░░ shooting and much less ░░░░░░░░ to the many other ░░░░░░░░ taken by guns each ░░░░░░░░ VELSHI Let me ask ░░░░░░░░ this Leah because in ░░░░░░░░ particular case and we ░░░░░░░░ t know the motivation ░░░░░░░░ the shooter there s ░░░░░░░░ lot of details we ░░░░░░░░ t know But we ░░░░░░░░ seem to know that ░░░░░░░░ so called bump stocks ░░░░░░░░ I ve been talking ░░░░░░░░ which allow you to ░░░░░░░░ it doesn t convert ░░░░░░░░ gun but allows you ░░░░░░░░ achieve the same thing ░░░░░░░░ would be achieved by ░░░░░░░░ fully automatic gun That ░░░░░░░░ like something that legislatures ░░░░░░░░ both sides and people ░░░░░░░░ both sides of the ░░░░░░░░ can probably start to ░░░░░░░░ around If we did ░░░░░░░░ intend people to have ░░░░░░░░ automatic weapons then we ░░░░░░░░ t be making it ░░░░░░░░ to buy these bump ░░░░░░░░ LIBRESCO It s plausible ░░░░░░░░ s good policy but ░░░░░░░░ ll be honest I ░░░░░░░░ of bump stocks two ░░░░░░░░ ago and it s ░░░░░░░░ for me to believe ░░░░░░░░ people already know everything ░░░░░░░░ need to know about ░░░░░░░░ prevalent or popular these ░░░░░░░░ are This is the ░░░░░░░░ mass shooting we ve ░░░░░░░░ that used one Gun ░░░░░░░░ can replicate the effects ░░░░░░░░ a bump holster by ░░░░░░░░ holding the gun in ░░░░░░░░ very particular way using ░░░░░░░░ hand to pull the ░░░░░░░░ forward So this feels ░░░░░░░░ little like the way ░░░░░░░░ keep approaching the TSA ░░░░░░░░ airline safety where the ░░░░░░░░ recent threat becomes all ░░░░░░░░ can talk about and ░░░░░░░░ miss some of the ░░░░░░░░ effective policy outreach programs ░░░░░░░░ the cease fire program ░░░░░░░░ tries to identify at ░░░░░░░░ youth who are involved ░░░░░░░░ gang violence and would ░░░░░░░░ benefit from being identified ░░░░░░░░ and disrupted before they ░░░░░░░░ in revenge killings VELSHI ░░░░░░░░ of the things that ░░░░░░░░ point out very well ░░░░░░░░ doesn t get talked ░░░░░░░░ enough when we talk ░░░░░░░░ how many gun deaths ░░░░░░░░ are in the United ░░░░░░░░ In 2015 we had ░░░░░░░░ 252 gun deaths far ░░░░░░░░ any other developed country ░░░░░░░░ 22 000 of those ░░░░░░░░ suicides And there s ░░░░░░░░ valid discussion about guns ░░░░░░░░ it comes to suicides ░░░░░░░░ a suicide tends to ░░░░░░░░ more effective when you ░░░░░░░░ a gun for it ░░░░░░░░ have less chance of ░░░░░░░░ it or calling 911 ░░░░░░░░ help But 12 000 ░░░░░░░░ 13 000 were homicides ░░░░░░░░ you are a person ░░░░░░░░ claims you grew up ░░░░░░░░ a place you didn ░░░░░░░░ really believe in guns ░░░░░░░░ don t carry a ░░░░░░░░ you re not a ░░░░░░░░ owner What s the ░░░░░░░░ way as a statistician ░░░░░░░░ think we can address ░░░░░░░░ that isn t like ░░░░░░░░ way the TSA does ░░░░░░░░ so that the last ░░░░░░░░ who set his underwear ░░░░░░░░ fire now we have ░░░░░░░░ check for that the ░░░░░░░░ guy who set his ░░░░░░░░ on fire we have ░░░░░░░░ check for that What ░░░░░░░░ the logical way to ░░░░░░░░ this LIBRESCO I think ░░░░░░░░ means really recognizing that ░░░░░░░░ homicide isn t even ░░░░░░░░ helpful category Those homicides ░░░░░░░░ very different when you ░░░░░░░░ at gang violence homicides ░░░░░░░░ men killing each other ░░░░░░░░ you look at domestic ░░░░░░░░ homicides These are the ░░░░░░░░ discreet buckets and you ░░░░░░░░ really different interventions for ░░░░░░░░ Mass shootings are a ░░░░░░░░ smaller number of homicides ░░░░░░░░ they re even more ░░░░░░░░ because just like gun ░░░░░░░░ and homicides are a ░░░░░░░░ messy category mass shootings ░░░░░░░░ t have much in ░░░░░░░░ with each other So ░░░░░░░░ s just extremely hard ░░░░░░░░ find strategies that will ░░░░░░░░ that form of killing ░░░░░░░░ expect them to have ░░░░░░░░ impact Often all we ░░░░░░░░ do as a statistician ░░░░░░░░ that we can t ░░░░░░░░ gun deaths down to ░░░░░░░░ but we can speak ░░░░░░░░ about what s going ░░░░░░░░ have the biggest chance ░░░░░░░░ helping the most VELSHI ░░░░░░░░ your opinion what is ░░░░░░░░ though Is it gun ░░░░░░░░ Is it background check ░░░░░░░░ Mental health stuff Education ░░░░░░░░ counseling What is it ░░░░░░░░ think when you take ░░░░░░░░ totality of unnecessary gun ░░░░░░░░ in the country what ░░░░░░░░ the most effective LIBRESCO ░░░░░░░░ think the two categories ░░░░░░░░ have the biggest handle ░░░░░░░░ how to address are ░░░░░░░░ and young men killing ░░░░░░░░ other And in neither ░░░░░░░░ those do we have ░░░░░░░░ perfect solution and neither ░░░░░░░░ them is wholly a ░░░░░░░░ based solution But they ░░░░░░░░ often about identifying people ░░░░░░░░ risk using a mix ░░░░░░░░ data and outreach programs ░░░░░░░░ then the work that ░░░░░░░░ is hard You can ░░░░░░░░ pass a law banning ░░░░░░░░ or against loneliness There ░░░░░░░░ a lot of sustained ░░░░░░░░ And I d love ░░░░░░░░ see I saw Megan ░░░░░░░░ suggest that more gun ░░░░░░░░ reach out to their ░░░░░░░░ and say Store your ░░░░░░░░ or ammo at my ░░░░░░░░ when you re feeling ░░░░░░░░ I want to be ░░░░░░░░ to protect you as ░░░░░░░░ fellow gun owner But ░░░░░░░░ just isn t an ░░░░░░░░ solution to lots of ░░░░░░░░ problems There s identifying ░░░░░░░░ at risk and then ░░░░░░░░ sustained work to try ░░░░░░░░ reach out to them ░░░░░░░░ to protect them I ░░░░░░░░ researching the problem of ░░░░░░░░ to address suicide because ░░░░░░░░ had a friend who ░░░░░░░░ knew owned guns and ░░░░░░░░ knew had made previous ░░░░░░░░ or talked about it ░░░░░░░░ thing that is frustrating ░░░░░░░░ a reporter talking to ░░░░░░░░ I kept asking what ░░░░░░░░ I do what can ░░░░░░░░ do that would really ░░░░░░░░ the equation for my ░░░░░░░░ And the answer was ░░░░░░░░ aren t any good ░░░░░░░░ I can change the ░░░░░░░░ and there s nothing ░░░░░░░░ can do to make ░░░░░░░░ probability go to zero ░░░░░░░░ I can do some ░░░░░░░░ We can talk about ░░░░░░░░ keeping ammo at home ░░░░░░░░ hard periods that make ░░░░░░░░ less likely VELSHI As ░░░░░░░░ statistician not necessarily your ░░░░░░░░ view although they re ░░░░░░░░ hard to separate do ░░░░░░░░ then believe that those ░░░░░░░░ use mass shootings which ░░░░░░░░ not the most common ░░░░░░░░ in which people die ░░░░░░░░ guns as a springboard ░░░░░░░░ try and continue the ░░░░░░░░ on gun control do ░░░░░░░░ think that s misguided ░░░░░░░░ I think it s ░░░░░░░░ alright idea if what ░░░░░░░░ re going to do ░░░░░░░░ highlight the biggest impact ░░░░░░░░ and not be just ░░░░░░░░ reactive to the tragedy ░░░░░░░░ is understandable because the ░░░░░░░░ understandable reaction is to ░░░░░░░░ at something like what ░░░░░░░░ in Las Vegas and ░░░░░░░░ in America where it ░░░░░░░░ happening again and again ░░░░░░░░ to say We want ░░░░░░░░ say never again to ░░░░░░░░ you have to be ░░░░░░░░ me there are options ░░░░░░░░ I think it s ░░░░░░░░ much harder than we ░░░░░░░░ willing to concede to ░░░░░░░░ people s lives when ░░░░░░░░ is determined to take ░░░░░░░░ I think what s ░░░░░░░░ valuable here is to ░░░░░░░░ Our options are always ░░░░░░░░ What can we do ░░░░░░░░ have the biggest impact ░░░░░░░░ let s be ready ░░░░░░░░ recognize that it may ░░░░░░░░ be a purely legal ░░░░░░░░ one time fix It ░░░░░░░░ be sustained hard work ░░░░░░░░ One of the things ░░░░░░░░ I hear from you ░░░░░░░░ I ve read in ░░░░░░░░ work and I hear ░░░░░░░░ the people with whom ░░░░░░░░ speak who are the ░░░░░░░░ experts on gun deaths ░░░░░░░░ this country is that ░░░░░░░░ majority of them are ░░░░░░░░ things that don t ░░░░░░░░ this kind of media ░░░░░░░░ They don t capture ░░░░░░░░ nation s attention Sometimes ░░░░░░░░ ll see when there ░░░░░░░░ too many shootings as ░░░░░░░░ always are in Chicago ░░░░░░░░ ll see groups mobilizing ░░░░░░░░ that and trying to ░░░░░░░░ that larger problem but ░░░░░░░░ they don t capture ░░░░░░░░ imagination like somebody shooting ░░░░░░░░ the 32nd floor of ░░░░░░░░ Mandalay Bay into a ░░░░░░░░ with 22 000 people ░░░░░░░░ me That s part ░░░░░░░░ the concern is how ░░░░░░░░ you capture the attention ░░░░░░░░ people on something that ░░░░░░░░ as much a social ░░░░░░░░ as it is about ░░░░░░░░ LIBRESCO I think one ░░░░░░░░ is as much as ░░░░░░░░ can as I saw ░░░░░░░░ doing earlier on the ░░░░░░░░ is to elevate the ░░░░░░░░ of the victims and ░░░░░░░░ family I think the ░░░░░░░░ that s most frightening ░░░░░░░░ mass shootings is that ░░░░░░░░ leaves us feeling powerless ░░░░░░░░ what can we do ░░░░░░░░ avoid the risk of ░░░░░░░░ death especially in a ░░░░░░░░ like this where the ░░░░░░░░ is completely unclear And ░░░░░░░░ you d hope is ░░░░░░░░ realize that if there ░░░░░░░░ a scary threat from ░░░░░░░░ people and sometimes even ░░░░░░░░ groups of people that ░░░░░░░░ need to care about ░░░░░░░░ people who are predictively ░░░░░░░░ from guns instead of ░░░░░░░░ the people who are ░░░░░░░░ endangered by guns And ░░░░░░░░ of that might mean ░░░░░░░░ the friends and family ░░░░░░░░ the grandchildren of the ░░░░░░░░ men who are most ░░░░░░░░ to commit suicide with ░░░░░░░░ gun speak more often ░░░░░░░░ your program or anywhere ░░░░░░░░ about what s happened ░░░░░░░░ their family and the ░░░░░░░░ they ve suffered and ░░░░░░░░ grief and their terror ░░░░░░░░ Because I don t ░░░░░░░░ it needs to be ░░░░░░░░ competition of which we ░░░░░░░░ about most exactly It ░░░░░░░░ how can we expand ░░░░░░░░ empathy to all VELSHI ░░░░░░░░ as somebody who takes ░░░░░░░░ position but exists in ░░░░░░░░ circle where there may ░░░░░░░░ people who do not ░░░░░░░░ empathize with those who ░░░░░░░░ believe in their right ░░░░░░░░ carry guns and not ░░░░░░░░ that restrict in any ░░░░░░░░ does the argument you ░░░░░░░░ go over well Are ░░░░░░░░ able to bring people ░░░░░░░░ and say Hey look ░░░░░░░░ s not as black ░░░░░░░░ white as it seems ░░░░░░░░ One of the places ░░░░░░░░ has to start is ░░░░░░░░ scrupulously honest about what ░░░░░░░░ push for and being ░░░░░░░░ when you have blind ░░░░░░░░ One of the things ░░░░░░░░ startling to me is ░░░░░░░░ s plenty of gun ░░░░░░░░ where the data are ░░░░░░░░ We ve really had ░░░░░░░░ deficit of research in ░░░░░░░░ country on gun deaths ░░░░░░░░ CDC has been held ░░░░░░░░ from researching them as ░░░░░░░░ public health issue Beyond ░░░░░░░░ there s just a ░░░░░░░░ of people who are ░░░░░░░░ favor of gun control ░░░░░░░░ ignorantly The assault weapons ░░░░░░░░ itself when assault weapons ░░░░░░░░ t a real category ░░░░░░░░ isn t a thing ░░░░░░░░ knew I used to ░░░░░░░░ in favor of the ░░░░░░░░ weapons ban until I ░░░░░░░░ more deeply and found ░░░░░░░░ that an assault weapon ░░░░░░░░ the basic base of ░░░░░░░░ semi automatic gun that ░░░░░░░░ had too many features ░░░░░░░░ onto it when you ░░░░░░░░ it But once you ░░░░░░░░ it you can add ░░░░░░░░ back on basically like ░░░░░░░░ bricks and it s ░░░░░░░░ When we say that ░░░░░░░░ owners know that you ░░░░░░░░ speaking from ignorance So ░░░░░░░░ think the most important ░░░░░░░░ of outreach is to ░░░░░░░░ from experience and if ░░░░░░░░ don t have that ░░░░░░░░ out to people with ░░░░░░░░ and let them instruct ░░░░░░░░ and then return to ░░░░░░░░ with the policies you ░░░░░░░░ interested in VELSHI Leah ░░░░░░░░ you for joining us ░░░░░░░░ you for your writing ░░░░░░░░ s a statistician former ░░░░░░░░ at FiveThirtyEight. “