RUSH TRANSCRIPT Thank you ░░░░░░░░ perspective Cheryl all right ░░░░░░░░ hour of mornings with ░░░░░░░░ starts right now And ░░░░░░░░ s time for the ░░░░░░░░ on Wall Street top ░░░░░░░░ watching your money Managing ░░░░░░░░ and founder ryan bellinger ░░░░░░░░ with me On set ░░░░░░░░ Newton Stacy Let s ░░░░░░░░ a look at futures ░░░░░░░░ now First trading day ░░░░░░░░ August busy day Second ░░░░░░░░ numbers We ve already ░░░░░░░░ caterpillar and jetblue Uber ░░░░░░░░ a few minutes ago ░░░░░░░░ missed on revenue but ░░░░░░░░ on earnings per share ░░░░░░░░ Cath a double beat ░░░░░░░░ earnings and revenue Jetblue ░░░░░░░░ on earnings but revenue ░░░░░░░░ line with estimates of ░░░░░░░░ 61 billion Real quick ░░░░░░░░ re looking ahead to ░░░░░░░░ Amazon that s Thursday ░░░░░░░░ lot to digest this ░░░░░░░░ for earnings ryan What ░░░░░░░░ your 360 view right ░░░░░░░░ It s a busy ░░░░░░░░ We have 170 companies ░░░░░░░░ It s really been ░░░░░░░░ mixed bag so far ░░░░░░░░ you just kind of ░░░░░░░░ We saw some of ░░░░░░░░ same last week from ░░░░░░░░ and Google Just mixed ░░░░░░░░ all over the place ░░░░░░░░ a lot of people ░░░░░░░░ going to be watching ░░░░░░░░ it s such a ░░░░░░░░ held stock as well ░░░░░░░░ apple Those are two ░░░░░░░░ are being heavily focused ░░░░░░░░ We re wondering is ░░░░░░░░ consumer going to keep ░░░░░░░░ money at higher prices ░░░░░░░░ can t happen forever ░░░░░░░░ point the consumer s ░░░░░░░░ to have to cut ░░░░░░░░ We saw that a ░░░░░░░░ bit last quarter with ░░░░░░░░ numbers down but pricing ░░░░░░░░ to be up And ░░░░░░░░ will end at some ░░░░░░░░ People can t continue ░░░░░░░░ spend at these levels ░░░░░░░░ I think the investors ░░░░░░░░ to know what they ░░░░░░░░ in their portfolios It ░░░░░░░░ really important to rebalance ░░░░░░░░ when you can That ░░░░░░░░ be done strategically That ░░░░░░░░ probably something a lot ░░░░░░░░ people are not doing ░░░░░░░░ inherently I think investors ░░░░░░░░ probably taking too much ░░░░░░░░ in their portfolio with ░░░░░░░░ market the S P ░░░░░░░░ almost 20 the NASDAQ ░░░░░░░░ 30 They probably own ░░░░░░░░ stock than they re ░░░░░░░░ owning especially if we ░░░░░░░░ the tide come out ░░░░░░░░ pretty soon Cheryl you ░░░░░░░░ out that visa has ░░░░░░░░ told us they re ░░░░░░░░ seeing a pullback in ░░░░░░░░ Frances is on set ░░░░░░░░ me She made the ░░░░░░░░ exact comment in thereafter ░░░░░░░░ of the show that ░░░░░░░░ some point because everyone ░░░░░░░░ putting so much money ░░░░░░░░ credit cards and aprs ░░░░░░░░ up above 20 on ░░░░░░░░ that there s going ░░░░░░░░ be a breaking point ░░░░░░░░ is your point there ░░░░░░░░ going to be a ░░░░░░░░ Bankruptcies and inflections in ░░░░░░░░ and foreclosures and now ░░░░░░░░ see a reacceleration of ░░░░░░░░ Oil is up 15 ░░░░░░░░ of the foods and ░░░░░░░░ gasoline is up 18 ░░░░░░░░ This is because of ░░░░░░░░ Saudis they re cutting ░░░░░░░░ and to Jack up ░░░░░░░░ prices because the demand ░░░░░░░░ kind of a record ░░░░░░░░ here The demand in ░░░░░░░░ is faltering and I ░░░░░░░░ wonder how long you ░░░░░░░░ keep this demand going ░░░░░░░░ of course just politically ░░░░░░░░ this is because we ░░░░░░░░ t have we re ░░░░░░░░ energy independent Cheryl we ░░░░░░░░ the spr We haven ░░░░░░░░ refilled it We should ░░░░░░░░ refilled it Cheryl not ░░░░░░░░ 51 a barrel which ░░░░░░░░ is on the screen ░░░░░░░░ react to that The ░░░░░░░░ being we talk so ░░░░░░░░ about inflation and it ░░░░░░░░ been cooling but she ░░░░░░░░ a great point last ░░░░░░░░ that because of the ░░░░░░░░ prices you are going ░░░░░░░░ see headline inflation numbers ░░░░░░░░ back the other way ░░░░░░░░ big piece of data ░░░░░░░░ out tomorrow and that ░░░░░░░░ productivity Productiveity has been ░░░░░░░░ for five quarters a ░░░░░░░░ going back to 1948 ░░░░░░░░ believe and I think ░░░░░░░░ is our own way ░░░░░░░░ of this If people ░░░░░░░░ getting real wage gains ░░░░░░░░ they re making more ░░░░░░░░ inflation and so they ░░░░░░░░ more money in their ░░░░░░░░ Are they going to ░░░░░░░░ it Are they going ░░░░░░░░ save it If they ░░░░░░░░ it people will continue ░░░░░░░░ raise prices the Fed ░░░░░░░░ raise interest rates We ░░░░░░░░ hit a recession If ░░░░░░░░ save that s not ░░░░░░░░ either Corporate profits will ░░░░░░░░ The silver bullet is ░░░░░░░░ are more productive at ░░░░░░░░ jobs make goods and ░░░░░░░░ cheaper so we can ░░░░░░░░ come down a little ░░░░░░░░ corporate profit margins will ░░░░░░░░ to be there and ░░░░░░░░ think that s the ░░░░░░░░ way out I don ░░░░░░░░ think people are as ░░░░░░░░ as they have been ░░░░░░░░ I think there s ░░░░░░░░ to be no way ░░░░░░░░ of this I think ░░░░░░░░ have to have a ░░░░░░░░ here at some point ░░░░░░░░ that s favorite question ░░░░░░░░ we more productive working ░░░░░░░░ home Cheryl but in ░░░░░░░░ seriousness respond to what ░░░░░░░░ s saying about worker ░░░░░░░░ It s about access ░░░░░░░░ credit The thing is ░░░░░░░░ have all these dynamics ░░░░░░░░ about at the same ░░░░░░░░ where we ve got ░░░░░░░░ lending tightening dramatically which ░░░░░░░░ kind of blowing up ░░░░░░░░ the private lending markets ░░░░░░░░ They re replacing the ░░░░░░░░ Where do you think ░░░░░░░░ land with rates going ░░░░░░░░ the end of the ░░░░░░░░ Continue to hike rates ░░░░░░░░ they don t want ░░░░░░░░ make the mistake of ░░░░░░░░ 1970s that was a ░░░░░░░░ deck decade of wealth ░░░░░░░░ They ve been against ░░░░░░░░ rates too soon I ░░░░░░░░ the market was predicting ░░░░░░░░ cut at some point ░░░░░░░░ I think that s ░░░░░░░░ So I think we ░░░░░░░░ going to continue to ░░░░░░░░ hikes and rates and ░░░░░░░░ ll just have to ░░░░░░░░ and see what the ░░░░░░░░ plays out We have ░░░░░░░░ lot of data coming ░░░░░░░░ the next two months ░░░░░░░░ I just had a ░░░░░░░░ to the Jimmy Carter ░░░░░░░░ Remember politically Remember that ░░░░░░░░ what one term president ░░░░░░░░ a big part of ░░░░░░░░ was again remember the ░░░░░░░░ lines back in the ░░░░░░░░ Am I the only ░░░░░░░░ that remembers this I ░░░░░░░░ I am All right ░░░░░░░░ just aged myself Laughter ░░░░░░░░ very much Frances last ░░░░░░░░ That as people are ░░░░░░░░ it in the wallet ░░░░░░░░ prices are going to ░░░░░░░░ the Fed is going ░░░░░░░░ have to remain aggressive ░░░░░░░░ yet we do have ░░░░░░░░ of this inflection point ░░░░░░░░ delinquencies and credit is ░░░░░░░░ available whether it s ░░░░░░░░ for the yellow trucking ░░░░░░░░ or whether it s ░░░░░░░░ for the person and ░░░░░░░░ it s hard to ░░░░░░░░ up with that and ░░░░░░░░ ll hit a threshold ░░░░░░░░ ryan thank you so ░░░░░░░░ for being with us ░░░░░░░░ morning Appreciate it Cheryl ░░░░░░░░ you re staying with ░░░░░░░░ all morning long RUSH ░░░░░░░░ Thank you for perspective ░░░░░░░░ all right Next hour ░░░░░░░░ mornings with Maria starts ░░░░░░░░ now And it s ░░░░░░░░ for the word on ░░░░░░░░ Street top investors watching ░░░░░░░░ money Managing principal and ░░░░░░░░ ryan bellinger is with ░░░░░░░░ On set Frances Newton ░░░░░░░░ Let s take a ░░░░░░░░ at futures right now ░░░░░░░░ trading day of August ░░░░░░░░ day Second quarter numbers ░░░░░░░░ ve already gotten caterpillar ░░░░░░░░ jetblue Uber crossing a ░░░░░░░░ minutes ago Uber missed ░░░░░░░░ revenue but beat on ░░░░░░░░ per share number Cath ░░░░░░░░ double beat on earnings ░░░░░░░░ revenue Jetblue missed on ░░░░░░░░ but revenue in line ░░░░░░░░ estimates of 2 61 ░░░░░░░░ Real quick we re ░░░░░░░░ ahead to apple Amazon ░░░░░░░░ s Thursday A lot ░░░░░░░░ digest this week for ░░░░░░░░ ryan What s your ░░░░░░░░ view right now It ░░░░░░░░ a busy week We ░░░░░░░░ 170 companies reporting It ░░░░░░░░ really been a mixed ░░░░░░░░ so far as you ░░░░░░░░ kind of outlined We ░░░░░░░░ some of the same ░░░░░░░░ week from Microsoft and ░░░░░░░░ Just mixed results all ░░░░░░░░ the place So a ░░░░░░░░ of people are going ░░░░░░░░ be watching Amazon it ░░░░░░░░ such a widely held ░░░░░░░░ as well as apple ░░░░░░░░ are two that are ░░░░░░░░ heavily focused on We ░░░░░░░░ wondering is the consumer ░░░░░░░░ to keep spending money ░░░░░░░░ higher prices That can ░░░░░░░░ happen forever Some point ░░░░░░░░ consumer s going to ░░░░░░░░ to cut back We ░░░░░░░░ that a little bit ░░░░░░░░ quarter with volume numbers ░░░░░░░░ but pricing continued to ░░░░░░░░ up And that will ░░░░░░░░ at some point People ░░░░░░░░ t continue to spend ░░░░░░░░ these levels so I ░░░░░░░░ the investors have to ░░░░░░░░ what they own in ░░░░░░░░ portfolios It s really ░░░░░░░░ to rebalance portfolios when ░░░░░░░░ can That should be ░░░░░░░░ strategically That s probably ░░░░░░░░ a lot of people ░░░░░░░░ not doing So inherently ░░░░░░░░ think investors are probably ░░░░░░░░ too much risk in ░░░░░░░░ portfolio with the market ░░░░░░░░ S P up almost ░░░░░░░░ the NASDAQ over 30 ░░░░░░░░ probably own more stock ░░░░░░░░ they re comfortable owning ░░░░░░░░ if we see the ░░░░░░░░ come out here pretty ░░░░░░░░ Cheryl you point out ░░░░░░░░ visa has already told ░░░░░░░░ they re not seeing ░░░░░░░░ pullback in spending Frances ░░░░░░░░ on set with me ░░░░░░░░ made the same exact ░░░░░░░░ in thereafter hour of ░░░░░░░░ show that at some ░░░░░░░░ because everyone s putting ░░░░░░░░ much money on credit ░░░░░░░░ and aprs going up ░░░░░░░░ 20 on average that ░░░░░░░░ s going to be ░░░░░░░░ breaking point That is ░░░░░░░░ point there s going ░░░░░░░░ be a break Bankruptcies ░░░░░░░░ inflections in bankruptcies and ░░░░░░░░ and now we see ░░░░░░░░ reacceleration of inflation Oil ░░░░░░░░ up 15 Many of ░░░░░░░░ foods and commodities gasoline ░░░░░░░░ up 18 4 This ░░░░░░░░ because of the Saudis ░░░░░░░░ re cutting supplies and ░░░░░░░░ Jack up these prices ░░░░░░░░ the demand is kind ░░░░░░░░ a record demand here ░░░░░░░░ demand in China is ░░░░░░░░ and I just wonder ░░░░░░░░ long you can keep ░░░░░░░░ demand going and of ░░░░░░░░ just politically speaking this ░░░░░░░░ because we don t ░░░░░░░░ we re not energy ░░░░░░░░ Cheryl we drained the ░░░░░░░░ We haven t refilled ░░░░░░░░ We should have refilled ░░░░░░░░ Cheryl not 81 51 ░░░░░░░░ barrel which it is ░░░░░░░░ the screen Ryan react ░░░░░░░░ that The point being ░░░░░░░░ talk so much about ░░░░░░░░ and it has been ░░░░░░░░ but she made a ░░░░░░░░ point last hour that ░░░░░░░░ of the energy prices ░░░░░░░░ are going to see ░░░░░░░░ inflation numbers head back ░░░░░░░░ other way Another big ░░░░░░░░ of data coming out ░░░░░░░░ and that s productivity ░░░░░░░░ has been down for ░░░░░░░░ quarters a record going ░░░░░░░░ to 1948 I believe ░░░░░░░░ I think productivity is ░░░░░░░░ own way out of ░░░░░░░░ If people are getting ░░░░░░░░ wage gains meaning they ░░░░░░░░ making more than inflation ░░░░░░░░ so they have more ░░░░░░░░ in their pocket Are ░░░░░░░░ going to spend it ░░░░░░░░ they going to save ░░░░░░░░ If they spend it ░░░░░░░░ will continue to raise ░░░░░░░░ the Fed will raise ░░░░░░░░ rates We iwe hit ░░░░░░░░ recession If they save ░░░░░░░░ s not good either ░░░░░░░░ profits will collapse The ░░░░░░░░ bullet is people are ░░░░░░░░ productive at their jobs ░░░░░░░░ goods and services cheaper ░░░░░░░░ we can prices come ░░░░░░░░ a little bit corporate ░░░░░░░░ margins will continue to ░░░░░░░░ there and I think ░░░░░░░░ s the only way ░░░░░░░░ I don t think ░░░░░░░░ are as productive as ░░░░░░░░ have been so I ░░░░░░░░ there s going to ░░░░░░░░ no way out of ░░░░░░░░ I think we have ░░░░░░░░ have a recession here ░░░░░░░░ some point Cheryl that ░░░░░░░░ favorite question are we ░░░░░░░░ productive working from home ░░░░░░░░ but in all seriousness ░░░░░░░░ to what he s ░░░░░░░░ about worker productivity It ░░░░░░░░ about access to credit ░░░░░░░░ thing is we have ░░░░░░░░ these dynamics coming about ░░░░░░░░ the same time where ░░░░░░░░ ve got the lending ░░░░░░░░ dramatically which is kind ░░░░░░░░ blowing up in the ░░░░░░░░ lending markets actually They ░░░░░░░░ replacing the banks Where ░░░░░░░░ you think we land ░░░░░░░░ rates going into the ░░░░░░░░ of the year Continue ░░░░░░░░ hike rates If they ░░░░░░░░ t want to make ░░░░░░░░ mistake of the 1970s ░░░░░░░░ was a lost deck ░░░░░░░░ of wealth creation They ░░░░░░░░ been against cutting rates ░░░░░░░░ soon I know the ░░░░░░░░ was predicting a cut ░░░░░░░░ some point seen I ░░░░░░░░ that s crazy So ░░░░░░░░ think we re going ░░░░░░░░ continue to get hikes ░░░░░░░░ rates and we ll ░░░░░░░░ have to wait and ░░░░░░░░ what the market plays ░░░░░░░░ We have a lot ░░░░░░░░ data coming out the ░░░░░░░░ two months Cheryl I ░░░░░░░░ had a flashback to ░░░░░░░░ Jimmy Carter years Remember ░░░░░░░░ Remember that s what ░░░░░░░░ term president and a ░░░░░░░░ part of that was ░░░░░░░░ remember the gas lines ░░░░░░░░ in the 70s Am ░░░░░░░░ the only one that ░░░░░░░░ this I guess I ░░░░░░░░ All right I just ░░░░░░░░ myself Laughter Cheryl very ░░░░░░░░ Frances last word That ░░░░░░░░ people are feeling it ░░░░░░░░ the wallet so prices ░░░░░░░░ going to reaccelerate the ░░░░░░░░ is going to have ░░░░░░░░ remain aggressive and yet ░░░░░░░░ do have sort of ░░░░░░░░ inflection point in delinquencies ░░░░░░░░ credit is not available ░░░░░░░░ it s available for ░░░░░░░░ yellow trucking company or ░░░░░░░░ it s available for ░░░░░░░░ person and so it ░░░░░░░░ hard to keep up ░░░░░░░░ that and we ll ░░░░░░░░ a threshold Cheryl ryan ░░░░░░░░ you so much for ░░░░░░░░ with us this morning ░░░░░░░░ it Cheryl frances you ░░░░░░░░ staying with us all ░░░░░░░░ long RUSH TRANSCRIPT Thank ░░░░░░░░ for perspective Cheryl all ░░░░░░░░ Next hour of mornings ░░░░░░░░ Maria starts right now ░░░░░░░░ it s time for ░░░░░░░░ word on Wall Street ░░░░░░░░ investors watching your money ░░░░░░░░ principal and founder ryan ░░░░░░░░ is with me On ░░░░░░░░ Frances Newton Stacy Let ░░░░░░░░ take a look at ░░░░░░░░ right now First trading ░░░░░░░░ of August busy day ░░░░░░░░ quarter numbers We ve ░░░░░░░░ gotten caterpillar and jetblue ░░░░░░░░ crossing a few minutes ░░░░░░░░ Uber missed on revenue ░░░░░░░░ beat on earnings per ░░░░░░░░ number Cath a double ░░░░░░░░ on earnings and revenue ░░░░░░░░ missed on earnings but ░░░░░░░░ in line with estimates ░░░░░░░░ 2 61 billion Real ░░░░░░░░ we re looking ahead ░░░░░░░░ apple Amazon that s ░░░░░░░░ A lot to digest ░░░░░░░░ week for earnings ryan ░░░░░░░░ s your 360 view ░░░░░░░░ now It s a ░░░░░░░░ week We have 170 ░░░░░░░░ reporting It s really ░░░░░░░░ a mixed bag so ░░░░░░░░ as you just kind ░░░░░░░░ outlined We saw some ░░░░░░░░ the same last week ░░░░░░░░ Microsoft and Google Just ░░░░░░░░ results all over the ░░░░░░░░ So a lot of ░░░░░░░░ are going to be ░░░░░░░░ Amazon it s such ░░░░░░░░ widely held stock as ░░░░░░░░ as apple Those are ░░░░░░░░ that are being heavily ░░░░░░░░ on We re wondering ░░░░░░░░ the consumer going to ░░░░░░░░ spending money at higher ░░░░░░░░ That can t happen ░░░░░░░░ Some point the consumer ░░░░░░░░ going to have to ░░░░░░░░ back We saw that ░░░░░░░░ little bit last quarter ░░░░░░░░ volume numbers down but ░░░░░░░░ continued to be up ░░░░░░░░ that will end at ░░░░░░░░ point People can t ░░░░░░░░ to spend at these ░░░░░░░░ so I think the ░░░░░░░░ have to know what ░░░░░░░░ own in their portfolios ░░░░░░░░ s really important to ░░░░░░░░ portfolios when you can ░░░░░░░░ should be done strategically ░░░░░░░░ s probably something a ░░░░░░░░ of people are not ░░░░░░░░ So inherently I think ░░░░░░░░ are probably taking too ░░░░░░░░ risk in their portfolio ░░░░░░░░ the market the S ░░░░░░░░ up almost 20 the ░░░░░░░░ over 30 They probably ░░░░░░░░ more stock than they ░░░░░░░░ comfortable owning especially if ░░░░░░░░ see the tide come ░░░░░░░░ here pretty soon Cheryl ░░░░░░░░ point out that visa ░░░░░░░░ already told us they ░░░░░░░░ not seeing a pullback ░░░░░░░░ spending Frances is on ░░░░░░░░ with me She made ░░░░░░░░ same exact comment in ░░░░░░░░ hour of the show ░░░░░░░░ at some point because ░░░░░░░░ s putting so much ░░░░░░░░ on credit cards and ░░░░░░░░ going up above 20 ░░░░░░░░ average that there s ░░░░░░░░ to be a breaking ░░░░░░░░ That is your point ░░░░░░░░ s going to be ░░░░░░░░ break Bankruptcies and inflections ░░░░░░░░ bankruptcies and foreclosures and ░░░░░░░░ we see a reacceleration ░░░░░░░░ inflation Oil is up ░░░░░░░░ Many of the foods ░░░░░░░░ commodities gasoline is up ░░░░░░░░ 4 This is because ░░░░░░░░ the Saudis they re ░░░░░░░░ supplies and to Jack ░░░░░░░░ these prices because the ░░░░░░░░ is kind of a ░░░░░░░░ demand here The demand ░░░░░░░░ China is faltering and ░░░░░░░░ just wonder how long ░░░░░░░░ can keep this demand ░░░░░░░░ and of course just ░░░░░░░░ speaking this is because ░░░░░░░░ don t have we ░░░░░░░░ not energy independent Cheryl ░░░░░░░░ drained the spr We ░░░░░░░░ t refilled it We ░░░░░░░░ have refilled it Cheryl ░░░░░░░░ 81 51 a barrel ░░░░░░░░ it is on the ░░░░░░░░ Ryan react to that ░░░░░░░░ point being we talk ░░░░░░░░ much about inflation and ░░░░░░░░ has been cooling but ░░░░░░░░ made a great point ░░░░░░░░ hour that because of ░░░░░░░░ energy prices you are ░░░░░░░░ to see headline inflation ░░░░░░░░ head back the other ░░░░░░░░ Another big piece of ░░░░░░░░ coming out tomorrow and ░░░░░░░░ s productivity Productiveity has ░░░░░░░░ down for five quarters ░░░░░░░░ record going back to ░░░░░░░░ I believe and I ░░░░░░░░ productivity is our own ░░░░░░░░ out of this If ░░░░░░░░ are getting real wage ░░░░░░░░ meaning they re making ░░░░░░░░ than inflation and so ░░░░░░░░ have more money in ░░░░░░░░ pocket Are they going ░░░░░░░░ spend it Are they ░░░░░░░░ to save it If ░░░░░░░░ spend it people will ░░░░░░░░ to raise prices the ░░░░░░░░ will raise interest rates ░░░░░░░░ iwe hit a recession ░░░░░░░░ they save that s ░░░░░░░░ good either Corporate profits ░░░░░░░░ collapse The silver bullet ░░░░░░░░ people are more productive ░░░░░░░░ their jobs make goods ░░░░░░░░ services cheaper so we ░░░░░░░░ prices come down a ░░░░░░░░ bit corporate profit margins ░░░░░░░░ continue to be there ░░░░░░░░ I think that s ░░░░░░░░ only way out I ░░░░░░░░ t think people are ░░░░░░░░ productive as they have ░░░░░░░░ so I think there ░░░░░░░░ going to be no ░░░░░░░░ out of this I ░░░░░░░░ we have to have ░░░░░░░░ recession here at some ░░░░░░░░ Cheryl that s favorite ░░░░░░░░ are we more productive ░░░░░░░░ from home Cheryl but ░░░░░░░░ all seriousness respond to ░░░░░░░░ he s saying about ░░░░░░░░ productivity It s about ░░░░░░░░ to credit The thing ░░░░░░░░ we have all these ░░░░░░░░ coming about at the ░░░░░░░░ time where we ve ░░░░░░░░ the lending tightening dramatically ░░░░░░░░ is kind of blowing ░░░░░░░░ in the private lending ░░░░░░░░ actually They re replacing ░░░░░░░░ banks Where do you ░░░░░░░░ we land with rates ░░░░░░░░ into the end of ░░░░░░░░ year Continue to hike ░░░░░░░░ If they don t ░░░░░░░░ to make the mistake ░░░░░░░░ the 1970s that was ░░░░░░░░ lost deck decade of ░░░░░░░░ creation They ve been ░░░░░░░░ cutting rates too soon ░░░░░░░░ know the market was ░░░░░░░░ a cut at some ░░░░░░░░ seen I think that ░░░░░░░░ crazy So I think ░░░░░░░░ re going to continue ░░░░░░░░ get hikes and rates ░░░░░░░░ we ll just have ░░░░░░░░ wait and see what ░░░░░░░░ market plays out We ░░░░░░░░ a lot of data ░░░░░░░░ out the next two ░░░░░░░░ Cheryl I just had ░░░░░░░░ flashback to the Jimmy ░░░░░░░░ years Remember politically Remember ░░░░░░░░ s what one term ░░░░░░░░ and a big part ░░░░░░░░ that was again remember ░░░░░░░░ gas lines back in ░░░░░░░░ 70s Am I the ░░░░░░░░ one that remembers this ░░░░░░░░ guess I am All ░░░░░░░░ I just aged myself ░░░░░░░░ Cheryl very much Frances ░░░░░░░░ word That as people ░░░░░░░░ feeling it in the ░░░░░░░░ so prices are going ░░░░░░░░ reaccelerate the Fed is ░░░░░░░░ to have to remain ░░░░░░░░ and yet we do ░░░░░░░░ sort of this inflection ░░░░░░░░ in delinquencies and credit ░░░░░░░░ not available whether it ░░░░░░░░ available for the yellow ░░░░░░░░ company or whether it ░░░░░░░░ available for the person ░░░░░░░░ so it s hard ░░░░░░░░ keep up with that ░░░░░░░░ we ll hit a ░░░░░░░░ Cheryl ryan thank you ░░░░░░░░ much for being with ░░░░░░░░ this morning Appreciate it ░░░░░░░░ frances you re staying ░░░░░░░░ us all morning long ░░░░░░░░ TRANSCRIPT Thank you for ░░░░░░░░ Cheryl all right Next ░░░░░░░░ of mornings with Maria ░░░░░░░░ right now And it ░░░░░░░░ time for the word ░░░░░░░░ Wall Street top investors ░░░░░░░░ your money Managing principal ░░░░░░░░ founder ryan bellinger is ░░░░░░░░ me On set Frances ░░░░░░░░ Stacy Let s take ░░░░░░░░ look at futures right ░░░░░░░░ First trading day of ░░░░░░░░ busy day Second quarter ░░░░░░░░ We ve already gotten ░░░░░░░░ and jetblue Uber crossing ░░░░░░░░ few minutes ago Uber ░░░░░░░░ on revenue but beat ░░░░░░░░ earnings per share number ░░░░░░░░ a double beat on ░░░░░░░░ and revenue Jetblue missed ░░░░░░░░ earnings but revenue in ░░░░░░░░ with estimates of 2 ░░░░░░░░ billion Real quick we ░░░░░░░░ looking ahead to apple ░░░░░░░░ that s Thursday A ░░░░░░░░ to digest this week ░░░░░░░░ earnings ryan What s ░░░░░░░░ 360 view right now ░░░░░░░░ s a busy week ░░░░░░░░ have 170 companies reporting ░░░░░░░░ s really been a ░░░░░░░░ bag so far as ░░░░░░░░ just kind of outlined ░░░░░░░░ saw some of the ░░░░░░░░ last week from Microsoft ░░░░░░░░ Google Just mixed results ░░░░░░░░ over the place So ░░░░░░░░ lot of people are ░░░░░░░░ to be watching Amazon ░░░░░░░░ s such a widely ░░░░░░░░ stock as well as ░░░░░░░░ Those are two that ░░░░░░░░ being heavily focused on ░░░░░░░░ re wondering is the ░░░░░░░░ going to keep spending ░░░░░░░░ at higher prices That ░░░░░░░░ t happen forever Some ░░░░░░░░ the consumer s going ░░░░░░░░ have to cut back ░░░░░░░░ saw that a little ░░░░░░░░ last quarter with volume ░░░░░░░░ down but pricing continued ░░░░░░░░ be up And that ░░░░░░░░ end at some point ░░░░░░░░ can t continue to ░░░░░░░░ at these levels so ░░░░░░░░ think the investors have ░░░░░░░░ know what they own ░░░░░░░░ their portfolios It s ░░░░░░░░ important to rebalance portfolios ░░░░░░░░ you can That should ░░░░░░░░ done strategically That s ░░░░░░░░ something a lot of ░░░░░░░░ are not doing So ░░░░░░░░ I think investors are ░░░░░░░░ taking too much risk ░░░░░░░░ their portfolio with the ░░░░░░░░ the S P up ░░░░░░░░ 20 the NASDAQ over ░░░░░░░░ They probably own more ░░░░░░░░ than they re comfortable ░░░░░░░░ especially if we see ░░░░░░░░ tide come out here ░░░░░░░░ soon Cheryl you point ░░░░░░░░ that visa has already ░░░░░░░░ us they re not ░░░░░░░░ a pullback in spending ░░░░░░░░ is on set with ░░░░░░░░ She made the same ░░░░░░░░ comment in thereafter hour ░░░░░░░░ the show that at ░░░░░░░░ point because everyone s ░░░░░░░░ so much money on ░░░░░░░░ cards and aprs going ░░░░░░░░ above 20 on average ░░░░░░░░ there s going to ░░░░░░░░ a breaking point That ░░░░░░░░ your point there s ░░░░░░░░ to be a break ░░░░░░░░ and inflections in bankruptcies ░░░░░░░░ foreclosures and now we ░░░░░░░░ a reacceleration of inflation ░░░░░░░░ is up 15 Many ░░░░░░░░ the foods and commodities ░░░░░░░░ is up 18 4 ░░░░░░░░ is because of the ░░░░░░░░ they re cutting supplies ░░░░░░░░ to Jack up these ░░░░░░░░ because the demand is ░░░░░░░░ of a record demand ░░░░░░░░ The demand in China ░░░░░░░░ faltering and I just ░░░░░░░░ how long you can ░░░░░░░░ this demand going and ░░░░░░░░ course just politically speaking ░░░░░░░░ is because we don ░░░░░░░░ have we re not ░░░░░░░░ independent Cheryl we drained ░░░░░░░░ spr We haven t ░░░░░░░░ it We should have ░░░░░░░░ it Cheryl not 81 ░░░░░░░░ a barrel which it ░░░░░░░░ on the screen Ryan ░░░░░░░░ to that The point ░░░░░░░░ we talk so much ░░░░░░░░ inflation and it has ░░░░░░░░ cooling but she made ░░░░░░░░ great point last hour ░░░░░░░░ because of the energy ░░░░░░░░ you are going to ░░░░░░░░ headline inflation numbers head ░░░░░░░░ the other way Another ░░░░░░░░ piece of data coming ░░░░░░░░ tomorrow and that s ░░░░░░░░ Productiveity has been down ░░░░░░░░ five quarters a record ░░░░░░░░ back to 1948 I ░░░░░░░░ and I think productivity ░░░░░░░░ our own way out ░░░░░░░░ this If people are ░░░░░░░░ real wage gains meaning ░░░░░░░░ re making more than ░░░░░░░░ and so they have ░░░░░░░░ money in their pocket ░░░░░░░░ they going to spend ░░░░░░░░ Are they going to ░░░░░░░░ it If they spend ░░░░░░░░ people will continue to ░░░░░░░░ prices the Fed will ░░░░░░░░ interest rates We iwe ░░░░░░░░ a recession If they ░░░░░░░░ that s not good ░░░░░░░░ Corporate profits will collapse ░░░░░░░░ silver bullet is people ░░░░░░░░ more productive at their ░░░░░░░░ make goods and services ░░░░░░░░ so we can prices ░░░░░░░░ down a little bit ░░░░░░░░ profit margins will continue ░░░░░░░░ be there and I ░░░░░░░░ that s the only ░░░░░░░░ out I don t ░░░░░░░░ people are as productive ░░░░░░░░ they have been so ░░░░░░░░ think there s going ░░░░░░░░ be no way out ░░░░░░░░ this I think we ░░░░░░░░ to have a recession ░░░░░░░░ at some point Cheryl ░░░░░░░░ s favorite question are ░░░░░░░░ more productive working from ░░░░░░░░ Cheryl but in all ░░░░░░░░ respond to what he ░░░░░░░░ saying about worker productivity ░░░░░░░░ s about access to ░░░░░░░░ The thing is we ░░░░░░░░ all these dynamics coming ░░░░░░░░ at the same time ░░░░░░░░ we ve got the ░░░░░░░░ tightening dramatically which is ░░░░░░░░ of blowing up in ░░░░░░░░ private lending markets actually ░░░░░░░░ re replacing the banks ░░░░░░░░ do you think we ░░░░░░░░ with rates going into ░░░░░░░░ end of the year ░░░░░░░░ to hike rates If ░░░░░░░░ don t want to ░░░░░░░░ the mistake of the ░░░░░░░░ that was a lost ░░░░░░░░ decade of wealth creation ░░░░░░░░ ve been against cutting ░░░░░░░░ too soon I know ░░░░░░░░ market was predicting a ░░░░░░░░ at some point seen ░░░░░░░░ think that s crazy ░░░░░░░░ I think we re ░░░░░░░░ to continue to get ░░░░░░░░ and rates and we ░░░░░░░░ just have to wait ░░░░░░░░ see what the market ░░░░░░░░ out We have a ░░░░░░░░ of data coming out ░░░░░░░░ next two months Cheryl ░░░░░░░░ just had a flashback ░░░░░░░░ the Jimmy Carter years ░░░░░░░░ politically Remember that s ░░░░░░░░ one term president and ░░░░░░░░ big part of that ░░░░░░░░ again remember the gas ░░░░░░░░ back in the 70s ░░░░░░░░ I the only one ░░░░░░░░ remembers this I guess ░░░░░░░░ am All right I ░░░░░░░░ aged myself Laughter Cheryl ░░░░░░░░ much Frances last word ░░░░░░░░ as people are feeling ░░░░░░░░ in the wallet so ░░░░░░░░ are going to reaccelerate ░░░░░░░░ Fed is going to ░░░░░░░░ to remain aggressive and ░░░░░░░░ we do have sort ░░░░░░░░ this inflection point in ░░░░░░░░ and credit is not ░░░░░░░░ whether it s available ░░░░░░░░ the yellow trucking company ░░░░░░░░ whether it s available ░░░░░░░░ the person and so ░░░░░░░░ s hard to keep ░░░░░░░░ with that and we ░░░░░░░░ hit a threshold Cheryl ░░░░░░░░ thank you so much ░░░░░░░░ being with us this ░░░░░░░░ Appreciate it Cheryl frances ░░░░░░░░ re staying with us ░░░░░░░░ morning long.