RUSH TRANSCRIPT Is what ░░░░░░░░ rattling markets right now ░░░░░░░░ thank you down 8 ░░░░░░░░ of a percent year ░░░░░░░░ year ppi much worse ░░░░░░░░ people expected it was ░░░░░░░░ as Cheryl told us ░░░░░░░░ 2 10 of a ░░░░░░░░ we are looking at ░░░░░░░░ down 8 10 of ░░░░░░░░ state of economy on ░░░░░░░░ jobless claims following 14th ░░░░░░░░ week as well just ░░░░░░░░ 1 3 million claims ░░░░░░░░ total nearly 50 million ░░░░░░░░ have plied the president ░░░░░░░░ Federal Reserve Robert Kaplan ░░░░░░░░ you so much for ░░░░░░░░ us you Good to ░░░░░░░░ you good to see ░░░░░░░░ Inflation we just get ░░░░░░░░ numbers out what is ░░░░░░░░ would you look at ░░░░░░░░ year over year down ░░░░░░░░ 106 a percent or ░░░░░░░░ over month down 2 ░░░░░░░░ of a percent what ░░░░░░░░ most important what can ░░░░░░░░ tell us about looking ░░░░░░░░ numbers for the most ░░░░░░░░ read Well I look ░░░░░░░░ all the numbers that ░░░░░░░░ year over year probably ░░░░░░░░ most significant But not ░░░░░░░░ surprise we ve got ░░░░░░░░ capacity food items there ░░░░░░░░ supply issues so you ░░░░░░░░ shortages people are paying ░░░░░░░░ for individual items but ░░░░░░░░ situation that is we ░░░░░░░░ got lots of excess ░░░░░░░░ you have pricing pressure ░░░░░░░░ not a surprise and ░░░░░░░░ t surprise me that ░░░░░░░░ ve got pricing pressure ░░░░░░░░ only caution I would ░░░░░░░░ monthly numbers are they ░░░░░░░░ a lot and I ░░░░░░░░ in this year going ░░░░░░░░ definitely move around a ░░░░░░░░ would I xb disinflation ░░░░░░░░ some are period of ░░░░░░░░ until we get rid ░░░░░░░░ some excess capacity Disinflation ░░░░░░░░ Jeremy Siegel on program ░░░░░░░░ couple weeks ago said ░░░░░░░░ is looking for inflation ░░░░░░░░ says inflation will increase ░░░░░░░░ 3 to 4 possibly ░░░░░░░░ 2022 In your view ░░░░░░░░ worry about that over ░░░░░░░░ term Not yet once ░░░░░░░░ get to we get ░░░░░░░░ a lower level of ░░░░░░░░ we get to more ░░░░░░░░ capacity then I am ░░░░░░░░ alert to watching for ░░░░░░░░ of inflationary pressure where ░░░░░░░░ dollar strength of the ░░░░░░░░ weakness in dollar in ░░░░░░░░ is going to be ░░░░░░░░ relevant are we going ░░░░░░░░ have more dollar a ░░░░░░░░ Could that lead to ░░░░░░░░ pressures but what I ░░░░░░░░ saying we are not ░░░░░░░░ to see it here ░░░░░░░░ a while If we ░░░░░░░░ it Because we ve ░░░░░░░░ so much excess capacity ░░░░░░░░ work on Maria I ░░░░░░░░ Robert what is your ░░░░░░░░ on growth Are you ░░░░░░░░ growth third quarter Where ░░░░░░░░ we in terms of ░░░░░░░░ this economic impact from ░░░░░░░░ 19 Covid 19 Expecting ░░░░░░░░ third and fourth quarter ░░░░░░░░ issue is we contracted ░░░░░░░░ annualized basis probably range ░░░░░░░░ in second quarter that ░░░░░░░░ annualized meaning multiplied by ░░░░░░░░ so we have always ░░░░░░░░ expecting that we will ░░░░░░░░ growing we were we ░░░░░░░░ to grow in may ░░░░░░░░ June grow in third ░░░░░░░░ grow in fourth quarter ░░░░░░░░ issue is how fast ░░░░░░░░ my my forecast for ░░░░░░░░ year still is wind ░░░░░░░░ contracting in the United ░░░░░░░░ about 4 1 2 ░░░░░░░░ 5 But how the ░░░░░░░░ proceeds and what the ░░░░░░░░ directly related to how ░░░░░░░░ we grow but we ░░░░░░░░ grow it is just ░░░░░░░░ question of what this ░░░░░░░░ resurgence is that slowing ░░░░░░░░ the rate of growth ░░░░░░░░ Sachs was anywaying a ░░░░░░░░ mask mandate could prevent ░░░░░░░░ GDP loss or trillion ░░░░░░░░ could substitute for a ░░░░░░░░ lockdown measure your take ░░░░░░░░ that So I talked ░░░░░░░░ to epidemiologists through United ░░░░░░░░ one consistent message getting ░░░░░░░░ months now I have ░░░░░░░░ talking about this is ░░░░░░░░ we all wore a ░░░░░░░░ would substantially mute the ░░░░░░░░ of disease and we ░░░░░░░░ grow faster We would ░░░░░░░░ a lower unemployment rate ░░░░░░░░ faster would be far ░░░░░░░░ likely to slow some ░░░░░░░░ our reopenings But we ░░░░░░░░ been uneven so far ░░░░░░░░ mask wearing so if ░░░░░░░░ was one recommendation you ░░░░░░░░ hear from me while ░░░░░░░░ fiscal policy key role ░░░░░░░░ play the primary economic ░░░░░░░░ from here is broad ░░░░░░░░ wearing and good execution ░░░░░░░░ the health care protocols ░░░░░░░░ we do that well,