RUSH TRANSCRIPT Larry folks ░░░░░░░░ you sure about a ░░░░░░░░ So far we don ░░░░░░░░ have a recession Let ░░░░░░░░ talk to Michael to ░░░░░░░░ faulkener and Tyler Goodspeed ░░░░░░░░ back to the show ░░░░░░░░ miss you you have ░░░░░░░░ dodging me I want ░░░░░░░░ play devil s advocate ░░░░░░░░ seem to have lost ░░░░░░░░ documents in Washington But ░░░░░░░░ of the documents we ░░░░░░░░ is the recession document ░░░░░░░░ Atlanta fed is predicting ░░░░░░░░ growth And the third ░░░░░░░░ was over 3 So ░░░░░░░░ know everyone is predicting ░░░░░░░░ recession But the actual ░░░░░░░░ don t show it ░░░░░░░░ economy okay But 4 ░░░░░░░░ nothing to scoff at ░░░░░░░░ we sure about think ░░░░░░░░ wildly heralded recession Larry ░░░░░░░░ s great to be ░░░░░░░░ with you I would ░░░░░░░░ avoid coming on your ░░░░░░░░ The second half of ░░░░░░░░ year the third quarter ░░░░░░░░ was driven by export ░░░░░░░░ The fourth quarter we ░░░░░░░░ a good October retail ░░░░░░░░ number But things fell ░░░░░░░░ after that It was ░░░░░░░░ flat after that I ░░░░░░░░ t foresee a 4 ░░░░░░░░ number for the fourth ░░░░░░░░ like the Atlanta fed ░░░░░░░░ the first half of ░░░░░░░░ year will be into ░░░░░░░░ recession With the activity ░░░░░░░░ Fed engaged in you ░░░░░░░░ the pullback in activity ░░░░░░░░ home purchases You see ░░░░░░░░ are starting to run ░░░░░░░░ some of the money ░░░░░░░░ accumulated during the pandemic ░░░░░░░░ savings rate is one ░░░░░░░░ the lowest levels we ░░░░░░░░ seen in a long ░░░░░░░░ Indications suggest that at ░░░░░░░░ point consumers are going ░░░░░░░░ run out of money ░░░░░░░░ that s going to ░░░░░░░░ to a mild recession ░░░░░░░░ maybe so Let s ░░░░░░░░ the bidding here First ░░░░░░░░ of last year first ░░░░░░░░ you had a big ░░░░░░░░ of inflation 7 8 ░░░░░░░░ percent inflation And you ░░░░░░░░ a slump in the ░░░░░░░░ You probably had a ░░░░░░░░ Two quarters of 2 ░░░░░░░░ But the last six ░░░░░░░░ inflation has come down ░░░░░░░░ s not down to ░░░░░░░░ But I would say ░░░░░░░░ s come down to ░░░░░░░░ 5 But it s ░░░░░░░░ 9 And the economy ░░░░░░░░ to have rebound I ░░░░░░░░ the outlook for dis ░░░░░░░░ with it looks pretty ░░░░░░░░ Wall Street is predicting ░░░░░░░░ Jamie Dimon is predicting ░░░░░░░░ I am just trying ░░░░░░░░ figure this story out ░░░░░░░░ s a very odd ░░░░░░░░ It s an odd ░░░░░░░░ Larry because we never ░░░░░░░░ had a situation like ░░░░░░░░ emerging from a pandemic ░░░░░░░░ an economy shut down ░░░░░░░░ protracted periods of time ░░░░░░░░ heard it say it ░░░░░░░░ easier to hand an ░░░░░░░░ 20 aircraft on the ░░░░░░░░ river than a soft ░░░░░░░░ on the U S ░░░░░░░░ I think I would ░░░░░░░░ give a soft landing ░░░░░░░░ 1 in 3 probability ░░░░░░░░ about a 1 in ░░░░░░░░ that we get a ░░░░░░░░ recession and 1 in ░░░░░░░░ that we don t ░░░░░░░░ a recession at all ░░░░░░░░ the Fed settles with ░░░░░░░░ 3 range In any ░░░░░░░░ year post 1945 there ░░░░░░░░ a 16 to 17 ░░░░░░░░ the economy enters a ░░░░░░░░ Looking at the risks ░░░░░░░░ would say we have ░░░░░░░░ be look at something ░░░░░░░░ that Double that is ░░░░░░░░ one in three chance ░░░░░░░░ the treasury curve is ░░░░░░░░ inverted They are also ░░░░░░░░ inflation signs as well ░░░░░░░░ I understand that The ░░░░░░░░ of leading indicators plunging ░░░░░░░░ see all these things ░░░░░░░░ predicting recession But let ░░░░░░░░ raise two points Mike ░░░░░░░░ I will direct one ░░░░░░░░ you The big fat ░░░░░░░░ Democrats would certainly boost ░░░░░░░░ inflation rate But they ░░░░░░░░ succeed in overturning the ░░░░░░░░ tax cuts They knicked ░░░░░░░░ corporate tax cuts a ░░░░░░░░ bit There is a ░░░░░░░░ corporate tax And bonus ░░░░░░░░ has gone from 100 ░░░░░░░░ 80 But the bulk ░░░░░░░░ the successful Trump tax ░░░░░░░░ which were so good ░░░░░░░░ stimulating the economy are ░░░░░░░░ still there Why don ░░░░░░░░ you address that Mike ░░░░░░░░ cuts are still around ░░░░░░░░ hates Trump and hates ░░░░░░░░ s tax cuts but ░░░░░░░░ s tax cuts may ░░░░░░░░ the economy I agree ░░░░░░░░ tax cuts are still ░░░░░░░░ But we have an ░░░░░░░░ rate environment that s ░░░░░░░░ what it was during ░░░░░░░░ Trump years And we ░░░░░░░░ seen a curtailment of ░░░░░░░░ investment and residential real ░░░░░░░░ investment So there are ░░░░░░░░ winds out there I ░░░░░░░░ with you that the ░░░░░░░░ would be in worse ░░░░░░░░ coming into 2023 had ░░░░░░░░ succeed succeeded and if ░░░░░░░░ had not scaled down ░░░░░░░░ Build Back Better investment ░░░░░░░░ are some head winds ░░░░░░░░ our economy and I ░░░░░░░░ the likelihood being we ░░░░░░░░ see a slowdown because ░░░░░░░░ aren t going to ░░░░░░░░ as much disposable income ░░░░░░░░ they did as they ░░░░░░░░ gone through all that ░░░░░░░░ we threw out during ░░░░░░░░ pandemic Larry I m ░░░░░░░░ devil s advocate You ░░░░░░░░ both smarter than I ░░░░░░░░ that makes it even ░░░░░░░░ fun This new Republican ░░░░░░░░ is going to succeed ░░░░░░░░ nobody has succeed for ░░░░░░░░ or 12 years They ░░░░░░░░ reduce and restrain federal ░░░░░░░░ and stop any potential ░░░░░░░░ increases and they might ░░░░░░░░ stop some regulations all ░░░░░░░░ which is anti inflation ░░░░░░░░ growth and might restore ░░░░░░░░ confident psychology What about ░░░░░░░░ This Republican Congress may ░░░░░░░░ the animal spirits What ░░░░░░░░ you think Tyler I ░░░░░░░░ say there is a ░░░░░░░░ and growing economic literature ░░░░░░░░ the impact of economic ░░░░░░░░ on business investments Once ░░░░░░░░ remove some of that ░░░░░░░░ be certainty then you ░░░░░░░░ get a recovery in ░░░░░░░░ investment The challenge is ░░░░░░░░ there has been a ░░░░░░░░ increase in the cost ░░░░░░░░ capital There is a ░░░░░░░░ excise tax that s ░░░░░░░░ head wind for business ░░░░░░░░ But I think the ░░░░░░░░ point thing with this ░░░░░░░░ Congress is the agreed ░░░░░░░░ that they will only ░░░░░░░░ dynamic scoring which I ░░░░░░░░ is very important That ░░░░░░░░ way tax cuts can ░░░░░░░░ appropriately measures for the ░░░░░░░░ out it causes.