RUSH TRANSCRIPT Get into ░░░░░░░░ all morning long mornings ░░░░░░░░ Maria is live right ░░░░░░░░ And it is time ░░░░░░░░ the word on Wall ░░░░░░░░ top investors watching your ░░░░░░░░ Joining me now ubs ░░░░░░░░ services private wealth advisor ░░░░░░░░ McCarthy Brian bendig and ░░░░░░░░ laffer junior Great to ░░░░░░░░ everybody this morning Thank ░░░░░░░░ for being here Brian ░░░░░░░░ canning things off with ░░░░░░░░ kicking things off with ░░░░░░░░ as we wait for ░░░░░░░░ read on inflation in ░░░░░░░░ GDP report we ll ░░░░░░░░ a first reading of ░░░░░░░░ second quarter GDP in ░░░░░░░░ hour and a half ░░░░░░░░ re expecting growth The ░░░░░░░░ fed says it will ░░░░░░░░ a contraction on top ░░░░░░░░ a contraction in the ░░░░░░░░ quarter How will markets ░░░░░░░░ if it s a ░░░░░░░░ And what are you ░░░░░░░░ That s a great ░░░░░░░░ I mean I think ░░░░░░░░ re expecting either flat ░░░░░░░░ slightly elevated number as ░░░░░░░░ mentioned slightly positive But ░░░░░░░░ it s a mixed ░░░░░░░░ you when between what ░░░░░░░░ going on the housing ░░░░░░░░ with inventory levels obviously ░░░░░░░░ export as well as ░░░░░░░░ a look at spending ░░░░░░░░ an overall basis from ░░░░░░░░ consumer Now he what ░░░░░░░░ confusing about the first ░░░░░░░░ number is that it ░░░░░░░░ primarily negative due to ░░░░░░░░ a imbalance in imports ░░░░░░░░ exports So depending on ░░░░░░░░ this number comes out ░░░░░░░░ the government assesses it ░░░░░░░░ on the input it ░░░░░░░░ be possible that even ░░░░░░░░ the headline numbers are ░░░░░░░░ negative quarter over quarter ░░░░░░░░ might not declare a ░░░░░░░░ and the reason being ░░░░░░░░ that this environment is ░░░░░░░░ with a lot of ░░░░░░░░ economic data due to ░░░░░░░░ chain inefficiency as well ░░░░░░░░ impacts coming from Ukraine ░░░░░░░░ So again I think ░░░░░░░░ environment is a little ░░░░░░░░ different when we use ░░░░░░░░ definitions in trying to ░░░░░░░░ is this truly a ░░░░░░░░ or are we in ░░░░░░░░ mild economic he slowdown ░░░░░░░░ we did have a ░░░░░░░░ inventory buildup in the ░░░░░░░░ quarter art Federal Reserve ░░░░░░░░ Jay Powell talked about ░░░░░░░░ yesterday but also signaled ░░░░░░░░ rate hikes are on ░░░░░░░░ way after the Federal ░░░░░░░░ raised rates by 75 ░░░░░░░░ 75 basis points yesterda ░░░░░░░░ know I think it ░░░░░░░░ really important to focus ░░░░░░░░ what he said in ░░░░░░░░ press conference He says ░░░░░░░░ Fed is strongly committed ░░░░░░░░ bringing down inflation but ░░░░░░░░ s going to watch ░░░░░░░░ data He s dependent ░░░░░░░░ the data and I ░░░░░░░░ even though we knew ░░░░░░░░ were dependent on the ░░░░░░░░ stocks rallied huge after ░░░░░░░░ rate hike maybe suggesting ░░░░░░░░ the big rate hikes ░░░░░░░░ behind us Yeah I ░░░░░░░░ you we we probably ░░░░░░░░ much into the numbers ░░░░░░░░ the language of the ░░░░░░░░ and less about the ░░░░░░░░ The fedfed has a ░░░░░░░░ mandate I employment and ░░░░░░░░ and price stability They ░░░░░░░░ got a lot more ░░░░░░░░ to let employment worsen ░░░░░░░░ here and inflations clearly ░░░░░░░░ problem and they ve ░░░░░░░░ made a mistake by ░░░░░░░░ too long to raise ░░░░░░░░ I think you re ░░░░░░░░ to have to continue ░░░░░░░░ be aggressive because b ░░░░░░░░ is not coming down ░░░░░░░░ month was 9 1 ░░░░░░░░ at 3 6 It ░░░░░░░░ worsen but it s ░░░░░░░░ g more room on ░░░░░░░░ employment side for it ░░░░░░░░ get a little worse ░░░░░░░░ don t have any ░░░░░░░░ on the inflation side ░░░░░░░░ they ve got to ░░░░░░░░ in my opinion a ░░░░░░░░ more aggressive and a ░░░░░░░░ longer Prices are not ░░░░░░░░ down and a little ░░░░░░░░ of moderation in gasoline ░░░░░░░░ are some of the ░░░░░░░░ really isn t going ░░░░░░░░ move the needle enough ░░░░░░░░ inflation and they ve ░░░░░░░░ to really be a ░░░░░░░░ more aggressive If they ░░░░░░░░ t get a handle ░░░░░░░░ inflation everything gets worse ░░░░░░░░ then we re talking ░░░░░░░░ a real recession as ░░░░░░░░ to this is either ░░░░░░░░ mile recession or it ░░░░░░░░ a he slowdown Maria ░░░░░░░░ you surprised at all ░░░░░░░░ reactions we re seeing ░░░░░░░░ ve had a number ░░░░░░░░ companies report weaker than ░░░░░░░░ earnings this week and ░░░░░░░░ stock rallied Yesterday the ░░░░░░░░ Reserve raises rates by ░░░░░░░░ a 75 basis po ░░░░░░░░ of like a year ░░░░░░░░ we would not have ░░░░░░░░ 75 a basis points ░░░░░░░░ the NASDAQ has the ░░░░░░░░ day in years up ░░░░░░░░ What s going on ░░░░░░░░ these reactions I think ░░░░░░░░ s happening is the ░░░░░░░░ s expectations are all ░░░░░░░░ the place the Fed ░░░░░░░░ worried that the markets ░░░░░░░░ responding the way they ░░░░░░░░ want it to which ░░░░░░░░ m not sure why ░░░░░░░░ want it to happen ░░░░░░░░ much as people think ░░░░░░░░ do but rates I ░░░░░░░░ t think rates are ░░░░░░░░ what they want The ░░░░░░░░ end is not moving ░░░░░░░░ They really want to ░░░░░░░░ demand increase prices But ░░░░░░░░ economy is softening but ░░░░░░░░ re trying to destroy ░░░░░░░░ and it s not ░░░░░░░░ very well They really ░░░░░░░░ t have the mechanics ░░░░░░░░ to do everything they ░░░░░░░░ to do Maria allie ░░░░░░░░ about you Are you ░░░░░░░░ at the reaction allie ░░░░░░░░ how are you allocating ░░░░░░░░ right now I m ░░░░░░░░ surprised and I would ░░░░░░░░ disagree I think that ░░░░░░░░ major news or the ░░░░░░░░ talking points out of ░░░░░░░░ Fed that made the ░░░░░░░░ quite happy is that ░░░░░░░░ actually saw markets go ░░░░░░░░ when there was a ░░░░░░░░ the statement said we ░░░░░░░░ seeing softening in demand ░░░░░░░░ And so you saw ░░░░░░░░ from companies as widespread ░░░░░░░░ Walmart to Microsoft Not ░░░░░░░░ that but you saw ░░░░░░░░ lot of conversation around ░░░░░░░░ things that they can ░░░░░░░░ immediately as opposed to ░░░░░░░░ labor market which is ░░░░░░░░ But even in the ░░░░░░░░ announcement that you were ░░░░░░░░ about you heard about ░░░░░░░░ people You heard about ░░░░░░░░ or delaying it spending ░░░░░░░░ capital expenditures you heard ░░░░░░░░ layoffs I think what ░░░░░░░░ yesterday is that both ░░░░░░░░ hawk and the dove ░░░░░░░░ in a sense happy ░░░░░░░░ capitulated to the news ░░░░░░░░ what you heard was ░░░░░░░░ we re going to ░░░░░░░░ data dependent And data ░░░░░░░░ dependent when we on ░░░░░░░░ three meetings left from ░░░░░░░░ Fed and the next ░░░░░░░░ is two months It ░░░░░░░░ gives the market two ░░░░░░░░ for everything that has ░░░░░░░░ put out there by ░░░░░░░░ Fed to actually catch ░░░░░░░░ to the market can ░░░░░░░░ so because of that ░░░░░░░░ saw a growth rally ░░░░░░░░ than everything else yesterday ░░░░░░░░ still think whether this ░░░░░░░░ a real sustainable rally ░░░░░░░░ you re going to ░░░░░░░░ some support under it ░░░░░░░░ whether this is what ░░░░░░░░ refer to as a ░░░░░░░░ market or a dead ░░░░░░░░ bounce the issue is ░░░░░░░░ follows Inflation is high ░░░░░░░░ is going to stay ░░░░░░░░ But there s a ░░░░░░░░ spread right now between ░░░░░░░░ pe valuations on value ░░░░░░░░ growth so you ve ░░░░░░░░ to get into value ░░░░░░░░ is a lot of ░░░░░░░░ for that to improve ░░░░░░░░ interesting Okay We ll ░░░░░░░░ watching all of that ░░░░░░░░ re at seven week ░░░░░░░░ right now on stocks ░░░░░░░░ Brian art great to ░░░░░░░░ you all Thank you ░░░░░░░░ much for the word ░░░░░░░░ Wall Street Much more ░░░░░░░░ this morning Coming up ░░░░░░░░ are awaiting the